Georgia vs Alabama
Posted December 1
The Game
IT’S TIME.
The SEC Championship Game is always one of the most anticipated sporting events of the calendar year and this season is no exception. Georgia boasts a perfect record of 12-0 and they just set the all-time record for consecutive SEC wins (29). They had a couple of CLOSE SHAVES along the way (Missouri, COCKS) but they outscored SEC opponents to the tune of 302-135 and absolutely destroyed Florida, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. ROLL TIDE dropped a game to Texas in week two but haven’t lost a game since and appear to be peaking at the right time, notwithstanding last week’s miracle last-second win over Auburn.
The Details
Georgia -5.5 Alabama (54.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia 30 Alabama 24.5
Georgia offense vs Alabama defense
The Bulldogs have been one of the most balanced and successful offenses in the nation (#6 FBS total offense, #30 rushing, #8 passing) and they’ve done it whilst dealing with a lot of injuries at the skill positions and on the OL. QB Carson Beck has had a very underrated campaign (3,495, 22-6 TD to INT, 9.4 YPA, 72%) and he’s only been sacked 8 times all season (370 attempts). They’ve got a ridiculously deep set of RBs and a virtual CORNUCOPIA of talented specimens at WR/TE. Beck does a great job of distributing the football and we expect that all-Universe TE Brock Bowers will be ready to go as will deep threat WR Ladd McConkey. WR Dillon Bell has emerged in the L2G and don’t sleep on “backup” TE Oscar Delp. Alabama’s defense isn’t a brick wall but it’s pretty good. They rate #17 in the FBS in total defense, #33 vs the run, and #15 in pass efficiency defense. This will be a similar test to LSU though (without the mobile QB, but more diverse passing attack) and the Tigers put up 28 points and lost their star QB in the second half of that game. Georgia didn’t exactly set the house on fire vs Missouri and a few similar defenses but this will be the healthiest they’ve been all season and note that they sat out some important doods last time out vs Georgia Tech.
Alabama offense vs Georgia defense
QB Jalen Milroe has been getting better as the season moves along and he continues to be one of the more underrated QBs in the country (66%, 21-6 TD to INT, 10.6 YPA; 12 rush TD). He throws a great deep ball and the OL has done a much better job of protecting him during the latter part of the season (two sacks L3G). Georgia doesn’t get a lot on sacks (25, #11 SEC) but they do a fine job of tackling and preventing the deep pass play. So THAT will be an interesting battle to watch. Georgia has displayed a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run at times and have had issues with mobile QBs that didn’t present nearly the challenge that Milroe does with his legs. With everything on the line and RB Jase McClellan banged up we expect Milroe to be unleashed more in the run game and RB Roydell Williams has the ability to do some damage as well. The Georgia secondary has been very good vs the pass (#7 pass efficiency D) and it’ll be up to Alabama’s dangerous WR combo of Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond to make some plays down the field when given the opportunity.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The Bulldogs have scored 30+ in 10/12 games this season…….ROLL TIDE has allowed 20+ in each of their last six SEC games (Aggies, WOO PIG, Vols, LSU, Wildcats, Auburn)……Georgia has allowed 20+ points in half of their games this year despite playing a weak set of opposing offenses…..This will be the best (or second-best; Ole Miss) offense that the Bulldogs have faced in 2023…..The ‘over’ has cashed in 12L14 SEC title games.
Summary
We think both offenses will have success in this game and we’ll have something to fire upon later this afternoon.
Conclusion
Coming soon! See above
UPDATE
Official pick – Over 55 -110 <sent 1:15pm Dec 1>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.