Oregon vs Washington
Posted December 1
The Game
Here we go! It’s the the rematch we’ve all been waiting for, BAYBEE.
The Huskies roll into Las Vegas with an undefeated record (12-0) and recall that they took down Oregon in a thriller back in October (W 36-33). They haven’t been as dominant on the scoreboard in the 2nd half of the season but they just keep on winning. The Ducks (11-1) have been generally CREMATING their opponents since the start of the year and finished the regular season with a convincing 31-7 victory over Oregon St in the CIVIL WAR.
A College Football Playoff berth is at stake. Let’s gooo!
The Details
Oregon -10 Washington (66)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oregon -8.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oregon 38 Washington 28
Oregon offense vs Washington defense
The Ducks just might have the most devastating offense in the nation (#2 FBS total offense, #23 rushing, #1 passing) and they’re led by Heisman-trophy favorite Bo Nix who’s having an incredible season (37-2 TD to INT, 6 rush TD). The OL has done a great job as Nix has only been sacked five times and they’ve paved the way for the 1-2 RB combo of Bucky Irving and Jordan James to rip thru opposing defenses (combined 20 rush TD). Oregon also has one of the best WR duos in the country in Troy Franklin (1,349, 14 TD) and Tez Johnson (942, 9 TD). The Huskies are average on defense (#7 PAC 12 run D, #6 pass efficiency D in PAC 12 competition) and recall that they were shredded for 541 yards in the first meeting with the Ducks. The Huskies don’t put much heat on the QB (19 sacks, last PAC 12) and the Ducks don’t make many mistakes so their best chance to stay in this game will be to hold Oregon to as many FGs as possible and/or be excellent on 4th down (again).
Washington offense vs Michigan Oregon defense
The Huskies have been a one-dimensional offense this year (#2 FBS passing, #103 rushing) but that ONE dimension has been pretty fantastic behind the play of QB Michael Penix Jr (3,899, 32-8 TD to INT, 66%, 9.1 YPA). The bad news is that the THROW GAME has been sputtering a bit down the stretch (204/162/332/256 L4G) and it’s unclear whether or not Penix is dealing with an injury or not. The WR group is banged up and are not as deep as when the season started but they’ve still got a future 1st round NFL DC in Rome Odunze (1,326, 13 TD). Oregon’s stop unit has been excellent all year (#5 total defense) and they’ve been really stout vs the run (#7, 93 YPG). They’ve also been stingy vs the pass (#12 FBS pass efficiency D) whilst booking 32 sacks. We expect a similar offensive game plan to the first meeting. Penix and the WR group just trying to make play after play and keep the chains moving. Penix showed how tough he is in the last Oregon game where he stood his ground and delivered a number of big throws. Can they Huskies’ THROW GAME kick it back up a notch?
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Oregon has outscored PAC 12 opposition 369-144 and won their L6G by an average of 26 PPG…..Washington’s combined margin of victory in PAC 12 affairs is 316-240 and they’ve won their L3G games by 7/2/3……Sadly, this is the final PAC 12 Championship Game as the conference disappears into the ETHER…….Oregon is +27 in net sacks…..Washington is +10…….Washington was a three-point favorite (home) in their last meeting and now we have Oregon -10 on a neutral field…..Has the line moved too far??
Summary
It seems impossible to have Oregon favored by double-digits vs an undefeated team that beat them earlier in the year but here we are. The reality is that Oregon is one of the top-three teams in the country and they’re playing their best football. Washington is not. We’ll have some kind of Oregon-related play later today. Need to do a bit more digging. Stay tuned!
Conclusion
Stay tuned! (see above)
Update – Lean Under 65.5……Both teams just might struggle to get to their implied team total. A score like 37-28 still gets us there!
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.