Week 14 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
“Official” picks in blue. Small plays/leans in green.
One FUTURES AND PROPS CLUB hedge added – See below.
CARD IS FINAL!
- SMU at Tulane (FUTURES HEDGE ADDED – see below and blog page)
- Miami Ohio vs Toledo (updated 9:00am Thursday)
- New Mexico St at Liberty
- Iowa vs Michigan
- Oklahoma St vs Texas
- Boise St at UNLV
- Appalachian St at Troy
- LUA-VUH vs Florida St
QUICK TAKES
1. Tulane -5.5 SMU (48)………………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 26.75 SMU 21.25
The Green Wave (11-1) will try and hit BACK-to-BACK JACKS on Saturday and win another AAC Championship…..They took care of UCF on this field last season (W 45-28) and now must face the mighty SMU Mustangs (10-2)….Tulane hasn’t been blowing people out this season and have had many CLOSE SHAVES….In fact, they had a streak of four consecutive conference wins over a bunch of turds by a combined 14 (!) points (N Texas, Rice, EC, Tulsa)….They beat UTSA last week with the help of five turnovers (+4 t/o margin) and some stingy play on 4th down….They’ve got an excellent veteran QB in Michael Pratt (66%, 21-4 TD to INT, 8.8 YPA), a 1,200-yard RB in Makhi Hughes, and a dangerous set of WR/TE targets….SMU’s defense has been excellent all year and rank #1 in the AAC in both total defense and YPP……Tulane is one of the better offenses the Mustangs have faced this year so we expect them to get into the 20s on Saturday……The yuuuuge story in the game is the unfortunate season-ending injury to SMU QB Preston Stone (28-6 TD to INT, 59%, 9.3 YPA) and note that backup Kevin Jennings has only thrown 24 passes this season…..The Mustangs have a VERY deep RB room but the Green Wave only allow 86 YPG on the ground…..SMU will have to do some damage thru the air and it’s really difficult to know how well Jennings will perform in this spot.
No leanage
Note for FUTURES AND PROPS CLUB – Hedging a bit of our SMU future as they lost their starting QB and we wanna limit our downside risk…………Tulane ML -170 <market -165 to -180 so shop around)……..1.00 units to win 0.59 units…….See blog page for more details.
2. Toledo -7.5 Miami Ohio (44)………………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 25.75 Miami Ohio 18.25
Yes, guy….We’ve got the best two teams in the conference going head-to-head for all the MAC marbles…..Toledo (11-1) has rattled off 11 (!) consecutive victories after losing by two points to Illinois in their season opener….Miami (10-2) lost to YOUR Hurricanes in their opener and also fell to Toledo (!!) at home back in October (L 21-17)…..Note that starting QB Brett Gabbert was knocked out for the season in that game and they almost rallied to win behind backup QB Aveon Smith….Speaking of Smith….he’s not able to do much thru the air at all (53%, 2-2 TD to INT) but maybe WR Gage Larvadain makes his way back to the lineup for a spark (best offensive weapon, 625, 17.4, 6 TD) ?? (Q on injury report)…..The run game is good but not great (#9 MAC) and RB Rashad Amos (821, 10 TD) needs to have a big day…..Thankfully, Smith can do some damage with his legs from the QB position….The strength of Miami is their defense (#1 YPP, #2 run D, #2 pass efficiency D in MAC games) and they’ll have their hands full vs a balanced and potent Toledo offense (#2 YPP, #3 run, #2 pass in MAC games)….QB Dequan Finn led the Rockets to a MAC Championship LY and he’s a legit dual-threat specimen (21-8 TD to INT; 530 rush, 6 TD)….Finn throws a few too many INTs and the Redhawks will have to hope for a mistake or two on Saturday…..The Rockets have a devastating rushing attack led by RB Peny Boone (1,359, 7.4, 15 TD) and while the Redhawks run D has been solid overall they allowed 274 yards on the ground (!) last week vs Ball St and also had a bit of trouble with the stronger ground attacks on their schedule…..Miami has one of the best special teams groups in the nation (#1 per Phil Steele) and PK Graham Nicholson is 23/23 (!) on FG attempts.
It’s hard to see Miami having much success vs Toledo with a one-dimensional offense and we prefer the favorite in this match-up….Haven’t gotten to the window yet but will see if a -7 becomes more widely available (a few rogue ones out there now)….Stay tuned.
No leanage (will keep tabs on this BAD BOY as per above)
UPDATE – Lean under 44
<44 is the number at the vast majority of shops but a few 43.5s are starting to pop up>
3. Liberty -10.5 New Mexico St (55.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -10
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 33 New Mexico St 22.5
The UNDEFEATED Flames (12-0) battle the Aggies (10-3) in Lynchburg on Saturday and both of these teams have been kind to DEGENERATE NATION going a combined 18-6-1 ATS…..Liberty won their previous meeting in week 2 by a score of 33-17 as 9-point favs and won the yardage battle 526-339…..Liberty has the #1 (!) rushing offense in America by a wide margin (295 YPG) and it’ll be interesting to see how the New Mexico run D holds up…..They’ve been good this season (#31 FBS) and they held Auburn to just 65 (!) yards on the ground and Jacksonville St to a mere 85 rushing yards in their L2G….Liberty has ran on everyone this season tho and they booked 250 vs the Aggies in their first meeting and that allowed QB Kaidon Salter to rip them apart in the THROW GAME (275 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 11 YPA)….New Mexico St also has a fine QB in Diego Pavia and both signal callers are top-notch dual-threat specimens….Liberty has a sneaky-good run defense (#17 FBS) and if the Aggies can’t have success on the ground it’ll be more difficult to keep up with the Flames…..The Aggies rushed for 170 yards in their first meeting (a season low) and they’ll have to do just as well (or better) to stay in contention throughout the game….40% chance of rain and light winds in the forecast for Friday night as we approach press time……The Aggies have an edge in the FG department with Ethan Albertson (18/23)……The Aggies have won and covered eight (!) in a row……The ‘over’ is our preferred look in this game but haven’t gotten down yet…..Don’t mind it up to 56 but we’ll do a bit more work during the week.
No leanage (will keep tabs as per above)
Update – gonna take a seat for this game and look for in-game opportunities
4. Michigan -23 Iowa (35.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -21
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 29.25 Iowa 6.25
This is an incredibly disgusting affair and it thankfully marks the end of the Big Ten DIVISION DEBACLE….Fun fact for the Young Sparkies out there…..since the Big Ten went to the East/West division concept back in 2014 the West has NEVER beaten the East….Pre-2014 it was something like the Wizards Division and the Strippers Division but who can remember back that far?….Iowa’s offense is a complete disgrace and rank DEAD LAST in the nation in total offense…Michigan’s defense is a brick wall so the Iowa implied team total looks about right (6.5ish)….The Iowa defense is good but not as awesome as the stats indicate as they’ve played a gruesome set of opposing offenses…..They also don’t rush the passer very well (23, #84 FBS) and will be missing their best defensive player (again) in Cooper DeJean who also played a yuuuge role on special teams (PR)…..Michigan’s offense will wear out the Iowa defense and hit enough big passing plays off of play-action to win this game comfortably…..Note that they destroyed a better Iowa team two years ago in this game (W 42-3) and dismembered Purdue last season by a score of 43-22…..The only question is the number….-23 isn’t cheap….We’ll almost certainly be on some type of Michigan-related play but need to let it simmer for a bit.
No leanage (see above)
5. Texas -14.5 Oklahoma St (55)………………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 34.75 Oklahoma St 20.25
The Longhorns (11-1) make their fully-anticipated appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game and their only loss this season came at the hands of Oklahoma in an epic RED RIVER SHOOTOUT **….Their surprise opponent is the Oklahoma St Cowboys who slithered into this game thanks in large part to a 5-game mid-season winning streak where they took down a few Big 12 BIG ‘UNS including Kansas St, Kansas, and the Sooners…..Texas provides a nightmare match-up for the Cowboys as their offense is based on the ability to run with star RB Ollie Gordon (1,580, 20 TD) and the Longhorns run defense is one of the best in the nation (85 YPG, #5 FBS)……That means that Oklahoma St will have to rely on the THROW GAME and note that QB Alan Bowman has a putrid 10-11 TD to INT ratio (2-6 L4G)(!)…..The Longhorns are deep at RB and their collection of WR/TEs are devastating….The line is a bit rich thanks to their 57-7 win over Texas Tech last week…..We prefer the favorite and will be looking to make a Texas-related play at some point….Stay tuned.
** PEW PEW….RAT A TAT TAT…..GUNS!!…..<reload>…..PEW PEW PEW ^^^
^^^ Sorry about the use of firearms, Karen. May we suggest you get your 7th DEATH BOOSTER and wear four masks instead of three?
Lean – Texas Team Total over 34.5 -128 <-125 to -135 is widely available>
6. Boise St -2.5 UNLV (59)………………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 30.75 UNLV 28.25
The Broncos pulled their season out of the fire around the time they fired (!) HC Andy Avalos and find themselves in the Mountain West Championship Game after taking down Air Force last week (W 27-19)….The rushing attack is in full gear with the return of star RB Ashton Jeanty who’s not only got over 1,100 yards on the ground but he’s also the team’s #2 receiver (and #2 in receiving yards)…..RB Taylen Green is good for a mistake or three during the game but he’s good with his legs and provides a stern challenge on the ground when combined with Jeanty and George Holani….The Rebels defense isn’t much to write home about (#67 FBS rushing D, #80 pass efficiency D) so that’s a concern for the home team….The good news is that UNLV has a very strong and balanced offense (#4 rush, #5 pass) and WR Ricky White is one of the most dangerous weapons in the conference (75, 1,300, 17.3, 7 TD)…..Boise plays good run defense (#2 MW, 127 YPG) but they’ve had problems all year defending the THROW GAME (#8 MW pass efficiency D)…..This looks like a toss-up and it just might be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend!
No leanage
Update for FUTURES AND PROPS CLUB – we aren’t hedging our position with Boise St – Just gonna let it ride.
7. Troy -6 Appalachian St (52.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Troy -7
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 29.25 Appalachian St 23.25
Appalachian St is another team who’s played their best football in the 2nd half of the season and found their way into a conference title game…..They’ve won five consecutive tilts and scored 48/31/42/26/55 in the process but now go on the road to face the defending champs who’ve rattled off nine wins in a row after losing to Kansas St and James Madison (by two points)…..Also note that the Trojans are now 22-4 (!) SU under HC Jon Sumrall over the L2Y and they’ve only lost once at home over that time horizon (James Madison, L 16-14)…..Both teams are impossible fades right now and we prefer the home team who’s got a massive edge on defense……Troy is #12 in the FBS in total defense (300 YPG) whilst the Mountaineers rate #72 (384 YPG)….Expect Troy’s star RB Kimani Vidal to have a big game (1,349, 9 TD) and note that QB Gunnar Watson has a sweet 26-5 TD to INT mark…..App St can SCORE the FOOTBALL but Troy will get more stops…..Tough call at this number.
No leanage
8. Florida St -2.5 LUA-VUH (47.5)……………………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 25 LUA-VUH 22.5
The Seminoles have done everything right this season starting with their opening win over LSU (!) and ending with their win over the Gators on the road utilizing a back-up QB…..They sit at 12-0 (!) but are no LOCK to make the CFP even with a victory given the unknown in terms of how a “committee” will decide their ultimate fate….LUA-VUH has had an easy schedule to navigate but still get full marks for getting to this spot with a fine mark of 11-1……Sadly, the yuuuge handicapping factor in this contest is what you think about Florida St’s back-up QB Tate Rodemaker and we believe that whilst he’s a major downgrade from Jordan Travis he’s had enough experience to do a competent job…..PARTICULARLY when you consider the weapons around him at RB and WR……The Cardinals are good vs the run (#1 ACC, 97 YPG) but more vulnerable to the THROW GAME (#5 ACC pass efficiency D) particularly recently when they made a midget QB from Virginia and a cripple at Miami look like Heisman Trophy winners…..Florida St’s DL looked good last week but they’ve shown holes on defense all year….LUA-VUH QB Jack Plummer has the mobility of the WRECK OF THE EDMUND FITZGERALD and he’s been sacked 22 times (11 INT)…….We prefer the favorite BUT will pass the game and ride with our Florida St ACC Champs futures play and recommend that FUTURES AND PROPS CLUB members do the same……We wish Jordan Travis was playing in this game but that’s why they call it gambling, yo.
No leanage
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re continuing to play these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.