Army vs Navy
Posted December 6
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s a great way to finish things off before bowl season as Army battles Navy at Gillette Stadium on Saturday afternoon. This is one of the best traditions in sports and there’s always max effort on display. Army won’t be going bowling (5-6) as they’ve got two wins over FCS teams and only one is allowed to count for bowl eligibility purposes. The good news for Army is that they can claim the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy with a victory in this game thanks to their win over Air Force. Navy (5-6) won’t be heading to a bowl game either as they didn’t have the requisite six wins before “bowl selection Sunday”. They’ll still be plenty motivated to take down their rival and ruin Army’s shot at glory.
The Details
Army -3 Navy (27.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Army 15.25 Navy 12.25
Army offense vs Navy defense
The Black Knights are led by QB Bryson Daily who’s tougher than a $3 STEAK and he’s the team leader in rushing yards by a wide margin (817, 7 TD). Daily is more than capable of making plays in the THROW GAME but he’s prone to throwing INTs (50%, 6-6 TD to INT). Army doesn’t wow you with much speed on offense but they rank #9 in the nation in rushing offense. Army ranks just #73 in 3rd down conversions and Navy is #22 in 3rd down defense AND #28 in rushing defense. FUN FACT – Navy has recorded THREE shutouts this season and they’ll provide stiff resistance on Saturday.
Navy offense vs Army defense
The Midshipmen have had a hard time moving the ball on offense (#124 FBS total offense; Army #115) as they’ve been plagued by inconsistent QB play and a screaming lack of explosiveness. QB Xavier Arline should be good to go for this one, but if not, we’ll hopefully see Braxton Woodson who has a bit more upside and he did some decent work vs SMU and Charlotte. Army is very familiar with what Navy likes to do on offense but their stop unit has shown more holes than we’d like to see during the course of the season (#113 run defense). Maybe that means Navy can squeeze out an extra key first down or two?
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Army won a 2-OT thriller last season by the score of 20-17 and they’ve won five of the last seven meetings…..Navy had previously rattled off 14 (!) wins in a row……Everyone including GRANDMA and ALWAYS-MASKED KAREN are aware of the incredible ‘under’ streak in the series…..Note however that the total is 27.5 and the last 10 games (OT or not) have totaled 37/30/15/38/27/38/38/27/41/30…….If you exclude the Notre Dame and SMU blowout losses Navy has outscored their opponents 184-151…..If you exclude the blowout loss to LSU and the 57-CACK win over something called Delaware St Army has been outscored by their opponents 180-172…..Navy has five garbage wins but were competitive vs Air Force and Memphis….Army has wins over Air Force (+6 in turnovers), Coastal Carolina (meaningless game for the Chants) and UTSA (no starting QB)…..Navy has the edge in the punting department whilst Army has a better PK.
Summary
We’ll take a stab with the team with the better defense and grab the tasty points in what should be another competitive edition of the Army-Navy Game!
Conclusion
Lean – Navy +3 -115
< Note: +3 -112 to -115 is easy to find and the current consensus number >
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.