Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 2 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Let’s go!
Boxscore review:
AAC
UTSA 20 Texas St 13 – another solid effort from the Bobcats…..372-242 yd edge for Roadrunners….Held Texas St to just 13 first downs
Memphis 37 Arkansas St 3 – YIKES….Red Wolves have now been outscored 110-3 in two games….389-230 yd edge for Memphis and note they were +4 in t/o margin
Ohio 17 Florida Atlantic 10 – excellent effort from the Bobcats defense…..Loved the Owls this week but they couldn’t get anything done on offense….Their defense also played well……..FAU up 10-CACK after pick six and then GLUG GLUG GLUG…..354-185 yard edge for Ohio, much-deserved win
Marshall 31 East Carolina 13 – WE ARE…..MARSHALL………..10-10 at the half….Herd pulls away…392-269 yd edge
FIU 46 North Texas 39 – OOOH those KOOKY FIU Panthers!…..Good for them to get a rare win…..even game 548-514 yd edge for Mean Green and each team with three turnovers…..Keyone Jenkins has been a yuuuge plus for Panthers at QB
Georgia Southern 49 UAB 35 – 477-462 yd edge for Blazers, both QBs over 300Y, score a bit misleading
ACC
Florida St 66 Southern Miss 13 – WHOA NELLIE, S Miss isn’t chopped liver and Noles off a yuuuuge win over LSU……No letdown here BAYBEE…..554-258 yd edge…..306 rush 248 pass….One of the few losses for LEAN CLUB members and it was over early even catching +31……HAVE FUN with these guys CLEMSON
Cincinnati 27 Pitt 21 – Bearcats with one of the sneakier upsets of the week…..up 27-7 after 3Q and managed to hold on…..Cincy wins the yardage battle convincingly 371-262 and they WON the sack battle vs SACK UNIVERSITY to the tune of 5-2
North Carolina 40 App St 34 – another OT classic between these two teams!…..Cheating refs helped out in OT did not call pass interference on NC in 2nd OT…..#MOB-TIES……527-494 yd edge, impressive game out of the Mountaineers…..Tar Heels star QB D Maye held to ZERO TD passes but they rushed for 319 yards….O Hampton had 234 on 26 carries (3 TD)….Not much of a sweat for LEAN CLUB members
Notre Dame 45 NC State 24 – The Irish keep on rolling, yo….456-344 yd edge and +2 in t/o….Gusty effort from Pack but they were simply outclassed
Syracuse 48 W Michigan 7 – Bloodbath special…..496-318 yd edge, Orange have won first 2G by a combined score of 113-7, tough game with Purdue on deck
James Madison 36 Virginia 35 – big win for LITTLE BROTHER!…..down 35-30 Dukes score winning TD with less than a minute left…..Note that Virginia QB A Colandrea looked very sharp in his first start…..20/26 377, 2-1 TD to INT
Big 12
Oklahoma 28 SMU 11 – Very nice game from the SMU defense…..well, and the Sooners’ stop unit as well!…..NOTE….Mustangs 367-365 yd edge which was a yuuuge surprise……score was 14-11 early 4Q
Kansas St 42 Troy 13 – convincing beating of a solid Sun Belt team…..397-286 yd edge, won the 2nd half 21-3
Utah 20 Baylor 13 – both teams rolled with backup QBs…….13-13 game looked destined for OT and then Baylor threw an INT in their own territory in the final 2 minutes…..377-339 yd edge for Utes, 224 rush yards
Oregon 38 Texas Tech 30 – Another tough loss for the Red Raiders…..and an even tougher loss for Texas Tech +6.5 and similar backers…..Yup, it’s time for the PULP FICTION GIMP to make an appearance and make sure that anyone backing the Red Raiders feels the pain…..let him grab a set of pliers and a blowtorch……Texas Tech up 30-28 late…..just over a minute left….Oregon inside the 10 yard line…..BIG DEFENSIVE STOP! Oregon forced to try a FG…..it’s good…..up 31-30…..CONGRATS Texas Tech backers….that was some SHARP action…..UH OH….what’s this…..Texas Tech down 31-30 driving for the win….around 30 seconds left….trying to get into FG range…..near midfield…..This baby is locked up……OH NO…….INTERCEPTION!…..just fall down….NO! he hurdles the QB and runs all the way for an Oregon TD…..Ducks win 38-30 and cover….Game over, start the cars, thanks for coming! Eat ZEE BUGS and wear those masks! See you next week unless there’s a “climate change” lockdown.
Oklahoma St 27 Arizona St 15 – Sun Devils up 15-10….Pokes win 2nd half 17-zip…..Oklahoma St used the 3 QB system once again and it didn’t look pretty but got the job done….304-277 yd edge for Okie St
UCF 18 Boise St 17 – Tough loss for the Broncos…..and almost a 4th win out of five for ML UNDERDOG CLUB members…..Boise St takes lead 16-15 with less than 2 min left but UCF QB JR Plumlee led the team on a late drive resulting in a last-second FG to win the game by one point…..530-384 yd edge for Knights and they were the better team…..Note that Boise lost starting QB T Green in the 4th Q but their backup looked ok and led them to the (almost) game-winning TD
Rice 43 Houston 41 – WHOA NELLIE, Rice up 28-CACK…..what could possibly happen?……Houston storms back to tie it at 28…..Rice wins in 2nd OT when COOGS 2-pt attempt fell incomplete….470-443 yd edge for Rice, 401 passing yards, Houston has their Big 12 opener up next (TCU)
Big Ten
Michigan 35 UNLV 7 – up 35-CACK after 3Q, couldn’t plow thru for the cover, 492-229 yd edge
Maryland 38 Charlotte 20 – Hey, now…..the FIGHTING BIFF POGGIs were yuuuuge underdogs and got up 14-CACK…..Maryland stormed back and led 38-14 and gave -23.5 backers some hope!! Could we do it? Will we be the victim of nasty BACK DOOR ACTION?…..Yup….49ers grind out a 75-yard drive and score the game-covering TD with just one minute left….that’s an OUCHIE…530-314 yd edge for Terps.
Rutgers 36 Temple 7 – another decisive win for Rutgers as they keep CHOPPING WOOD….452-298 yd edge
Washington St 31 Wisconsin 22 – WOW….Yup, Washington St exceeded market (and our) expectations with an impressive home win over the Badgers…..got up 24-6…..368-332 yd edge for Cougars and note they were (-3) in t/o margin and still won fairly comfortably
Iowa 20 Iowa St 13 – Iowa leads 20-3 after 3Q and looked to have game sealed up BUT here come the CLONES……cut the lead to seven points and got the ball back but turned it over on downs….Note 290-235 yd edge for Iowa St…..yup, Iowa still looks like “Iowa” on offense.
Kansas 34 Illnois 23 – WOOO….that Kansas offense is fantastic….They slowed down in the 2nd half but looked razor sharp out of the gate….ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK had yuuuge 539-341 yard edge, 262 rush 277 pass, each team with 2 t/o
Minnesota 25 Eastern Michigan 6 – tense moments for LEAN CLUB members….EM +20.5….Gophers driving inside the 5 yard line with less than a minute left….Eagles STIFFEN UP and hold them at the 2-yard line…..will Minnesota try for a TD with 30 sec left or kick the FG??? Insane drama, yo….up by 16……Thank our lucky stars Jim Harbaugh isn’t on that sideline and the Gophers kick a 20 yard FG with 29 sec left to take 19 point lead……that cover was toooooo easy
Colorado 36 CORN 14 – 13-CACK at the half and the Huskers defense looked REALLY good for the 2nd game in a row….Basically gifted Colorado 10 points…..Got worn down in the 2nd half…..CORN has major problems as QB as Jeff Sims is a WALKING TURNOVER…..454-341 yd edge for Colorado…..and yes, QB S Sanders is AMAZING
Northwestern 38 UTEP 7 – MINER NATION up 7-zip early and then it was ALL CATS……391-319 yd edge for Northwestern and they were +3 in t/o margin
Purdue 24 Virginia Tech 17 – BOILER UP got a 17-CACK lead…..VT came back to tie the game…..Purdue winning TD with 8 min left…..Six hour delay….yup, Lightning noticed in Karachi, Pakistan so SAFETY FIRST…..427-286 yd edge for Purdue, held VT to 11 rush yards, note VT star WR A Jennings with ankle injury early, was seen in a boot, not good
Conference USA
Liberty 33 New Mexico St 17 – 23-17 at the half….Liberty won the 2nd half 10-zip and sealed the cover…..Important conference win for the Flames……..526-339 yd edge for Liberty
Independents
Georgia St 35 UConn 14 – sneaky good win for the Panthers………got up 28-CACK, gave up 14 points in 4Q, 394-326 yd edge and +2 in t/o for Georgia St
Miami Ohio 41 UMass 28 – another game that felt like it took 12 hours thanks to lightning somewhere in Brazil…..446-306 yd edge for Redhawks, UMass down 21-zip after first Q did not quit….Miami QB Gabbert 302 pass yds on just 22 attempts
MAC
<see games in other conference sections>
Mountain West
Air Force 13 Sam Houston 3 – held Sam Houston to 6 first downs and just 80 yards (258-80 yd edge) and couldn’t cover for us……Sam Houston feisty defense but they’re another level of bad on offense…..Having said that…2-0 vs the spread after two weeks and they’ve only score a total of three points in TWO games haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
PAC 12
USC 56 Stanford 10 – Trojans with 49 (!) points in the first half!….573-349 yd edge and +3 in t/o margin
Washington 43 Tulsa 10 – 563-318 yd edge, 454 pass yds, road trip to Michigan St up next
UCLA 35 San Diego 10 – 550-259 yd edge, 254 rush 296 pass, true freshman QB D Moore got almost all the snaps and looked really good…..17/27 290, 3-0 TD to INT
SEC
Georgia 45 Ball St 3 – 386-224 yard edge, just 99 rush yards, QB C Beck looked good, Ball St down 45-CACK kicked FG with 9 min left to gain a PUSH IT, PUSH IT REAL GOOD for Cardinals +42 backers
Texas 34 ROLL TIDE 24 – Texas led 13-6 and then all heck broke loose in the 2nd half, thankfully for LEAN CLUB we had the FH under, 454-362 yd edge for Longhorns, ROLL TIDE (-2) in t/o and definitely need improvement at QB if they wanna win the SEC West
Miami 48 Texas A&M 33 – YOUR Miami Hurricanes with a yuuuuge win!…..down 10-CACK and then blew them out…..451-433 yd edge, 374 passing yards, a few Miami injuries we need to check up on,
Ole Miss 37 Tulane 20 – Green Wave up 17-7 with backup QB, Ole Miss pulled away but it was closer than the score indicated, late FAT GUY TD for Ole Miss gave them 17 point lead, 363-342 yd edge for Rebels
WOO PIG 28 Kent St 6 – 308-200 yd edge, 2nd straight MEH performance vs scrubs
Auburn 14 California 10 – 273-230 yd edge for Cal and they led heading into 4Q….Auburn 4 turnovers, Cal with 3, sloppy game, comes in well under the total of 55/56, note Cal QBs averaged just 4.2 YPA, underrated road win for Auburn
Mississippi St 31 Arizona 24 (OT) – Miss St up 21-7, forced 5 turnovers, yet Arizona kept coming and forced OT…..Misleading final as Cats outgained Bulldogs 431-307 but the turnovers killed them
Missouri 23 MTSU 19 – YIKES, Missouri life and death to take down the Blue Raiders who were coming off an incineration at the hands of ROLL TIDE……Just a 316-285 yd edge for Tigers
Wake Forest 36 Vanderbilt 20 – wire to wire comfy win, 484-423 yd edge, Wake 288 rush yds!
Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina 30 Jacksonville St 16 – another scrappy effort from the COCKS….Line closed around -14…..Just a 399-393 yd edge for the CHANTS……Jax St 186 rush yds but (-2) in t/o margin
Old Dominion 38 Louisiana 31 – The Monarchs get the home upset despite being outgained 458-392…..neither team turned the ball over…..Don’t sleep on this Old Dominion offense we expect them to get better as the season rolls along
Portfolio review
Big plays
1-2
Ole Miss -7 …..closed at -12.5/-13 after Tulane announced backup QB would be the starter…..We knew Pratt was banged up but was surprised he didn’t play; Back-up isn’t chopped liver so good for Ole Miss to get outta there with a win and cover.
Ohio -3 -122…..closed right about there…..Ohio up 10-CACK after def TD couldn’t get offense rolling
Air Force -13.5…..closed right there…..Allowed 3 points and less than 100 YARDS but couldn’t get the cover
Small plays/Leans
WOW. 11-3 on these bad boys. LEAN CLUB domination. If only we could get some of those into the big play column. We had a similar thing happen in 2022. Big plays were .500. Small plays did extremely well.
Note from our 2023 SEASON PASS introduction email/blog post…….
2022 – We also had our best year in terms of “leans” <small bets> as we piled up a 99-83 (54.1%) mark on those bad boys during the regular season and had the bowl games figured out pretty well (15-7 bowl leans). Club Leanage ended the season at 114-90 (56%). In an ideal world, the send-out picks would have been the best subset of winners, but unfortunately, there’s always going to be a high-level of variance when it comes to selecting a few picks from the overall bucket of what we like for the week.
So what are we gonna do about it? Just gotta keep ‘capping and hope that the variance on the big vs small plays starts to even out. If you are a $20 bettor we recommend $30 ($40 max) on the big plays. That’s how we think about it.
Winners
Marshall, Northwestern, Kansas, E Mich, Miami, Okla St, California, App St, North Texas over, Notre Dame, Bama FH under
Losers
New Mexico St, Purdue under, Southern Miss
ML Underdog Club (see Blog page)
3-2. YES GUY.
Back-to-back weeks with three winners and a winning TICKEE TICKEE. Boise St lost on a last second FG and California lost by four points. Could have been a ridiculous week but we’re always thankful for any winners. Note that Rice was up 28-0 (!) and needed OT to win. Also note – there are some books out there that automatically grade your ML play as a WIN once you are up 17 points so do some research if you haven’t come across a book that offers that promotion. Once or twice a year it’ll come in handy when a dog gets up yuuuuge and then craps the bed.
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – one win in the bag, still have Merrimack to look forward to!
Akron over 3.5 – life and death to beat Morgan St; that’s one! haaaa
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – makes sense to be a 1-1; lost best offensive player on first drive, WR Jennings a big loss if HE GONE
UConn over 5 – disappointing loss but lots of winnable games left
Colorado St over 4.5 – off this week
Kentucky over 7 – 2-0 vs cupcakes
Tulane under 9.5 – one loss, need two more; they look freaking good tho
Futures and Props Club
It’s too early to get depressed or excited but here are some good signs…..
ACC champ – Fla St/UNC looks like a decent combo after Clemson dropped a conference game
SEC West champ – like the combo of LSU/Auburn/Ole Miss after seeing Bama and Texas A&M this week
National champ – USC/Texas/Georgia looks like a solid trio
Heisman – Williams and Nix off to good starts; NOTE – we may take another position in this market this week; We’ll advise
Cheers and see you for Week 3!