Week 2 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
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Handy index: Quick Takes (official picks in blue, leans in green)
- UNLV at Michigan
- Tulsa at Washington
- Memphis at Arkansas St
- Stanford at USC
- Louisiana at Old Dominion
- Ball St at Georgia
- Kent St at WOO PIG
- Marshall at East Carolina
- Ole Miss at Tulane
- Vanderbilt at Wake Forest
- Utah at Baylor
- UTEP at Northwestern
- MTSU at Missouri
- New Mexico St at Liberty
- Purdue at Virginia Tech (lean added: Sept 6, 5pm)
- Charlotte at Maryland
- Jacksonville St at Coastal Carolina
- James Madison at Virginia
- Western Michigan at Syracuse
- Miami Ohio at Massachusetts
- Southern Miss at Florida St
- Illinois at Kansas (Friday)
- Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
- CORN at Colorado
- SMU at Oklahoma
- Connecticut at Georgia St
- Eastern Michigan at Minnesota
- Oklahoma St at Arizona St
- Temple at Rutgers
- UCLA at San Diego St
- Wisconsin at Washington St
- Air Force vs Sam Houston (N) (Houston)
- Iowa at Iowa St
- Texas St at UTSA
- UAB at Georgia Southern
- Troy at Kansas St
- Oregon at Texas Tech
- Houston at Rice
- Arizona at Mississippi St
- Auburn at California
- UCF at Boise St
- North Texas at FIU
- Appalachian St at North Carolina
- Ohio at Florida Atlantic
QUICK TAKES
1. Michigan -36.5 UNLV (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -35
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 47 UNLV 10.5
Michigan continues their brutal schedule with a home date vs UNLV…..They can certainly name the score and the line looks about right…..UNLV looked ok vs something called “Bryant” last week and this is a major step up in class….LAY OR IT LEAVE IT….we’ll be on the sidelines.
No leanage
2. Washington -34.5 Tulsa (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -35
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 49.5 Tulsa 15
Yup, we expect QB M Penix to go FREAKY FREAKY all night long after seeing what he did to the Boise St secondary in week one…..Tulsa is still a bit of an unknown commodity….We know they will stink, but how bad will that STANK be?…..Huskies will be able to score as much as they want BUT note they have a road trip to Michigan St on deck.
No leanage
3. Memphis -21.5 Arkansas St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -18
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 40 Arkansas St 18.5
YIKES…..Arkansas St got INCINERATED at Oklahoma week 1 as MEGALOCKS LEAN CLUB members we left holding a steaming bag of DOO DOO…..73-CACK and +35 just wasn’t good enough….Hard to know how they’ll bounce back after that game….Ya they expected to get drilled but WOW….Memphis blew out the school known as Bethune-Cookman in their opener and have AAC play on deck (Navy)…Looks like a few too many points to lay with the Tigers but it’s hard to support the Red Wolves until we see them play an acceptable game.
No leanage
4. USC -29.5 Stanford (71)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -28
Vegas Implied Score – USC 50.25 Stanford 20.75
USC has scored an impossible 122 points (!) in their first two contests (San Jose St, Nevada) and their easy first-half schedule continues with a visit from Stanford…….Stanford looked good last week with new QB A Daniels and the SHARP STEAM drilling Hawaii down from the +10 range into the +3 neighborhood ended up going GLUG GLUG GLUG down the drain…..Stanford has covered 9L15 vs USC…..Feels like their could be some sweet BACK DOOR possibilities late much like the San Jose St game….USC should get to 50…..Will Stanford be able to get into the 20s…? Feels like dog or pass if you can get 30+ by kickoff….We’re on the sidelines for now.
No leanage
5. Louisiana -6.5 Old Dominion (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 27.5 Old Dominion 21
We’re lower than market on both of these squads…..The Cajuns have a lot of new faces but they looked ok vs an FCS cupcake in week one as they blew out NW St 38-13…..QB B Wooldridge was healthy and played well…..The intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that Louisiana is just 3-7 ATS L10 as Sun Belt chalk….ODU was outmatched vs the Hokies last week but their run D held up well and they’ve got a mobile QB that can cause problems at times…..Might nibble at the home puppy if the line creeps up to +7 but we ain’t there yet.
No leanage
6. Georgia -42 Ball St (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -39.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 47.25 Ball St 5.25
Georgia disposed of FCS foe UT Martin with ease as expected in game one (W 48-7) and Ball St played sneaky-good vs Kentucky….Sadly they lost their star LB C Coll due to injury in the Kentucky game and that’s a big loss for the defense…..Georgia has a game with South CACKALACKY on deck…..Line might be a wee bit high but something like 47-3 is well within reason.
No leanage
7. WOO PIG -38 Kent St (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – WOO PIG -39.5
Vegas Implied Score – WOO PIG 48.5 Kent St 10
Kent St gave up over 700 (!) yards to UCF in their opener and now they’ve gotta travel to SEC country to battle Arkansas……..WOO PIG put up 56 points last week vs W Carolina but only managed 379 yards of offense….Figure the clock will be running TICK TICK TICK and it won’t be easy to cover 38….then again…..they lost by FITTTY to UCF…..Fav or pass and we haven’t gotten to the window yet.
No leanage
8. Marshall -3 East Carolina (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -3
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 24.5 E Carolina 21.5
The HERD slithered past the JUGGERNAUT known as Albany by a score of 21-17 last week but they won the yardage battle handily (413-300) and booked 7 sacks whilst looking balanced on offense….E Carolina exceeded our expectations defensively last week at the BIG HOUSE but only managed to score 3 points……That’s probably reasonable vs Michigan but we’re below market on the ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR lemme FIRE me CANNON……..Pirates this season and still aren’t sure what they have at QB/RB/WR…..Think Marshall finds a way…..Note that HC C Huff is 9-3 ATS in true road games.
Lean – Marshall -3
9. Ole Miss -7 Tulane (64)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -8
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 35.5 Tulane 28.5
We’ll roll with the FIGHTING LANE KIFFINS in this one as we rate Ole Miss as one of the top teams in the SEC and this is a major step up in class for Tulane who looked great in smoking S Alabama in game one…..sadly that was a 666 UNIT MEGALOCKS DEATH BOOSTER POWER LOCK loser….Ole Miss has an absolutely devastating offense and certainly have a more athletic defense than what the Wave faced last week….Meaningless but interesting tidbit….Two weeks after Tulane almost upset Oklahoma in 2021 they went to Ole Miss and lost 61-21…..As we noted last week it’s really tough to go against Tulane HC W Fritz who’s phenomenal ATS but we don’t think a top-notch AAC team can keep pace with a squad like the Rebels…..Ole Miss was a powerhouse in the first half of the season LY before they started to get worn down by SEC play and they are fresh and healthy are ready to go for this one….They threw for over 500Y last week vs FCS turd Mercer and didn’t allow a sack.
Official play: Ole Miss -7 -110 <sent 10:17am Sept 5>
10. Wake Forest 11.5 Vanderbilt (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -11
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 35 Vanderbilt 23.5
We don’t see any value in this number and are neutral on both of these teams heading into the season….The Commodores were life and death to beat Hawaii and then beat FCS scrub Alabama St to move to 2-0…..Wake won their opener vs a thing called Elon in game one (W 37-17)…..Mixed signals with the angles…..The road team has covered 4L5 in the series….Wake is 5-2 ATS L7.
No leanage
11. Utah -7.5 Baylor (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah -7
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 27.5 Baylor 20
This is one of the tougher games to get a handle upon…..How do the Bears react after allowing TEXAS ST to beat them handily on their home field??……They didn’t look great on either side of the ball and now they’re without starting QB Blake Shapen…..Utah QB C Rising is “day-to-day” but that can mean anything when it comes to Utah…..and what about the Utes’ #1 WR and their star TE B Kuithe?….Will they play?….Utah is the more trustworthy bunch but note that they’re just 3-8 L11 as a road favorite.
No leanage
12. UTEP -1.5 Northwestern (38.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 20 Northwestern 18.5
Times have changed in many ways….The Northwestern coaching staff found out during the offseason that It’s not acceptable for seniors to feed freshman to hippos as part of their “initiation” any more……And when did you ever think you’d see UTEP favored over a Big Ten team on the road??……UTEP has a punishing ground game but it’s similar to Rutgers and Northwestern did a decent job vs the Scarlet Knights (285 total yards, 122 rush yards, 2.8 YPC)….We aren’t gonna overthink this BAD BOY as we’ve gotta hope that the Cats are embarrassed to be underdogs to a team that’s 0-22 (!) vs Power 5 teams and just 5-25 (!) on the road under HC D Dimel….Northwestern is hot garbage but UTEP is in their area code and we expect the Miners to snatch DEFEAT from the jaws of VICTORY…..especially if they need a clutch FG from your boy BUZZ FLABIANO who hasn’t made a FG yet in two games (0-1).
Lean – Northwestern +1.5
13. Missouri -21 MTSU (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -20.5
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 36.25 MTSU 15.25
Not a game we’ll be involved with…..MTSU will still be licking their wounds after the beating from ROLL TIDE and they’ll be better once conference play starts…..Tigers’ HC E Drinkwitz is 3-7 ATS as home chalk with Missouri and they’ve got a match-up with Kansas St on deck.
No leanage
14. Liberty 10.5 New Mexico St (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -8
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 32 New Mexico St 21.5
The Aggies have the best player on the field in QB D Pavia and better overall weaponry at RB and WR…..Now the defense is another story but we give them a good shot of keeping this close heading into the 4th Q….Liberty couldn’t even manage 400Y at home vs Bowling Green last week and were the beneficiary of five Falcons turnovers…..Liberty was 0-6 (!) ATS LY as a double-digit fav, 0-4 at home….NM St (and QB Pavia) destroyed Liberty LY 49-14 FWIW…..Not an ideal travel spot for the road team as they’ve gotta make a yuuuuge eastward journey but it’s a massive conference game and we expect a closer game than Vegas.
Lean – New Mexico St +10.5
15. Virginia Tech -3 Purdue (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -3
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 26 Purdue 23
The Hokies got off to a decent start by handling Old Dominion at home but this is a big step up in class and we weren’t thrilled with the run game in week one…..We were however very happy with the QB play, improved WR action, and defensive effort….They get to stay at home and welcome a Purdue squad that lost at home to Fresno St….We’re not high on BOILER UP this year but the line looks about right….We were hoping for a line closer to pick ’em but here we are.
No leanage
UPDATE – 5pm WED – Under was smashed down to 46, We’ll nibble OVER than number. Weather may have some t-storms in store for us (see weather blog page) but we’ve got the fair number at 51. Scattered t-storms but minimal wind think both QBs can do some damage. It’s a risk, but that’s what this is all about BAYBEEEE.
Lean – OVER 46
UPDATE #2 – we had a typo in our first update that’s now corrected – The write-up clearly suggests OVER but our pick said UNDER…..Ooops…..Sorry for the confusion and hope y’all will forgive our typist.
16. Maryland -24.5 Charlotte (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -24
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 37.5 Charlotte 13
Charlotte is one of the teams that have been almost completely retooled (Colorado, Texas St) so it is possible that they also massively exceed expectations on Saturday?…..We don’t see that coming but then again, we didn’t think TCU and Baylor would lose to the Buffs and Bobcats….Line looks about right….Let’s watch and see what the 49ers are all about.
No leanage
17. Coastal Carolina -13 Jacksonville St (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -14
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 35.5 Jacksonville St 22.5
The Gamecocks have started out 2-0 but this will be their toughest opponent to date (UTEP, E Tenn St) and also their first road game of the campaign…..Coastal hung around at UCLA and did a decent job vs the Bruins rushing attack (153Y)…..This is a yuuuge step down in class for the CHANTS…..Also note that Jax St leads the nation in t/o margin (+7) and how long can their fortune last???……Prefer the fav but one thing that gives us pause is a potential change at QB for the Gamecocks….It was only an FCS team but QB L Smothers looked pretty good last week and he’s a much better passer than Z Webb……More for Coastal to prepare for this week.
No leanage
18. James Madison -6 Virginia (41)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 23.5 Virginia 17.5
This will be one of the more emotional games of the weekend as the Cavaliers play their first game since the shooting tragedy of Nov 22, 2022…..James Madison also hails from Virginia and would love to put a WHOOPING on the home team…..There will be plenty of purple in the stands that’s for sure….Virginia’s starting QB is listed as the starter on the most recent depth chart we saw but he may not be able to finish the game and that would leave the Cavs with an inexperience true freshman……Line looks a bit rich to us as Virginia can play some defense and won’t be caught off guard by the strong Dukes squad…..Tough call.
No leanage
19. Syracuse -23.5 Western Michigan (54.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -24
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 39 Western Michigan 15.5
We don’t see much of a reason to get involved in this game as the line looks about right and it’s hard to know what to make of Syracuse’s week one dismembering of Colgate (W 65-CACK)……Western Michigan is one of the worst teams in the MAC but at least they showed some spunk in their week one win over an FCS team (W 35-17, St Francis)…..Feels like fav or pass.
No leanage
20. Miami Ohio -7 Massachusetts (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -8
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 26.75 Massachusetts 19.75
MEGALOCKS SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB is waiting patiently with the champagne…..How long will it take for the KOOKY Minutemen to exceed two wins?…….This is a winnable game but Miami Ohio has a veteran QB and one of the best defenses in the MAC…..They’ll appreciate the drop in class after getting pasted by YOUR Miami Hurricanes in week one…UMass may be without starting QB Taisun P but Carlos Davis is a capable back-up that provides a passing threat…..We were hoping for +10 but that wasn’t gonna happen after the week one Redhawks result.
No leanage
21. Florida St -31 Southern Miss (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -28.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 42 Southern Miss 11
Ya, BAYBEEEE…..Florida St looked great in dismantling LSU in game one but we’ll PEE INTO THE WIND and take a small taste of the 30+ point dog…..The Noles have ACC play on deck (BC) and HC M Norvell is just 5-8 ATS as home chalk with Florida St….Southern Miss has a decent defense, a star RB, and a new QB in Billy Wiles that looked good last week, albeit vs a TOMATO CAN called Alcorn St.
Lean – Southern Miss +31
22. Kansas -3 Illinois (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -3
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 30.5 Illinois 27.5
We don’t see any “value” in the raw point spread but like the direction of the KU program (up) vs the temporary trajectory of the Illinois team (sideways, down)…..Illinois looked like they really missed their former DC in game one vs Toledo where they were life and death to win at home vs Toledo…….Kansas is #1 in the country in returning production and made quick work of FCS turd Missouri St in game one (W 48-17)….Illinois has failed to cover in each of their last four road openers and have Penn St on deck….Kansas HC Lance Leipold is 16-7-1 as a home fav in his career, 3-1 with the Jayhawks.
Lean – Kansas -3
23. Pittsburgh -7 Cincinnati (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 26 Cincinnati 19
Tough game to call….We see some implied value with the home fav based on our numbers but note that the Panthers are just 18-27-2 as a home fav over the L10Y…..These teams were also bitter rivals in the good old days (Big East)….We’re pretty negative on the Bearcats heading into the season BUT note that QB Emory Jones looked like a Heisman contender vs E Kentucky last week (5 TD, W 66-13)….LINE MOVEMENT GUY will be intrigued by the move from -8 to -7 as who in the SAM HILL wants to bet Cincinnati in this game?
No leanage
24. Colorado -3 CORN (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 31.25 CORN 28.25
PRIME TIME……PRIME TIME……PRIME TIME…..Yup, that Colorado/TCU game last week was great TV and the Buffs managed to SHOCK the WORLD with a massive upset victory…QB S Sanders threw for over 500Y and Travis Hunter was absolutely incredible playing around 140 snaps combined at WR/CB AND doing it at a high level….The Buffs D is still trash but can Nebraska take advantage?…..We’d normally be all over the road dog and fading the team off the yuuuuge win but could Colorado have more in the tank in this home opener???…..They just might have enough momentum to put together another big effort with help from the home crowd and CORN QB J Sims isn’t gonna scare anyone…..The CORN D looked good against the Gophers but Colorado has ATHLETES that can kill you in space….Line value says Huskers but the Buffs are an impossible fade right now….Note that Nebraska HC M Rhule is 19-8 ATS (!) as a road dog over his career and that includes last week’s cover vs Minnesota…..We can’t wait for this BAD BOY but sadly won’t have any action PRE-FLOP…..Maybe some SWEET in-game ACTION?
No leanage
25. Oklahoma -16 SMU (69)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 42.5 SMU 26.5
Yes, guy…..The Sooners roll into week 2 off a 73-CACK win over Arkansas St and it just might be that this team is on a MISSION FROM GOD to get the bad taste of 2022 (6-7) out of their collective mouths…..SMU is one of the best teams in the AAC and have the potential to score some points on the Oklahoma D…..It’s hard to fade a team off a 70+ point win and the line is about right.
No leanage
26. Georgia St -3 Connecticut (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -2
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 28.75 Connecticut 25.75
This is an interesting contrast in styles as the physical Huskies battle the high-flying Panthers and their electric dual-threat QB D Grainger……Something referred to as “Rhode Island” gave Georgia St all they could handle in week one whilst putting up over 500 yards of offense and losing a close game (42-35 G St)…..Connecticut was outmatched by NC State in their opener but managed to keep the game respectable (L 24-14)…..We don’t like the Huskies’ chances in a shootout and they’ll have to find a way to get their solid run game rolling and play keep away….UConn is just 1-5 SU in true road games under HC J Mora.
No leanage
27. Minnesota -20.5 Eastern Michigan (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 34.5 Eastern Michigan 14
There’s a wee bit of value on the Eagles side in this affair but we like the situational spot……Minnesota is in a tough sandwich spot (last second CORN win last week, UNC on deck) whilst Eastern Michigan is in their preferred ATS role….HC C Creighton is an impossible 29-13-1 vs the spread as a road puppy……Gophers were life and death…..some would even say very lucky….to escape with a win vs Nebraska and they’ve still got some key doods banged up (Q as we hit press time)
Lean – E Michigan +21 -120
28. Oklahoma St -3 Arizona St (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 30 Arizona St 27
Neither team WOWED us last week vs FCS competition…..The Pokes took down Central Arkansas (W 27-13) and looked MEH but note that they allowed a late TD when the game was already decided….They used 3 QBs last week and we hope beyond hope that your boy Alan Bowman doesn’t see the field again (13/24 80 yds, 0 TD)….The other two doods looked good…..Arizona St slithered past S Utah (W 24-21) but did have a sizeable yardage edge…..We’re gonna side with the more cohesive team and the yuuuge coaching advantage…..The Sun Devils have a rookie HC whilst the Cowboys are led by the ATS MACHINE that is Mike Gundy….He’s 30-20 ATS as road chalk over his career and a mind-boggling 43-22 vs the spread against non-conference opponents…..Fun fact….the PAC-12 is UNDEFEATED so far this season (13-0).
Lean – Oklahoma St -3
29. Rutgers -9 Temple (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -8
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 26.5 Temple 17.5
This promises to be a SNOT BUBBLER on Saturday afternoon….Rutgers just CHOPS WOOD and we regret not have even a WEE TASTER on them last week when the took down Northwestern (W 24-7)…..They didn’t exceed 300Y in that game tho so it remains to be seen how many games they can win without a legit THROW GAME…..Temple was down by 14 points to Akron but found a way to win the game…..Maybe that snapped them out of their funk?……Recall that Rutgers won a tight one at Temple LY (W 16-14)…..Prefer the dog but want +10 to get involved.
No leanage
30. UCLA -14.5 San Diego St (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 31.75 San Diego St 17.25
A bit tempted to roll with the home dog getting a SMIDGE of perceived line value but there are a couple of things we don’t love…..UCLA 11-2-1 L14 ATS vs the Aztecs and really have their number…..We also don’t like the match-up….UCLA’s run D was excellent last week holding Coastal Carolina to a mere 56 rushing yards and if SD St can’t get the rushing attack going they’re gonna be in trouble….Nobody on the team has more than 70 receiving yards and QB J Mayden is averaging less than 6 YPA….Hopefully we get to see more of QB Dante Moore who looked good when he got in the game last week.
No leanage
31. Wisconsin -6 Washington St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 32.25 Washington St 26.25
Tough game to call at this price point…..The Badgers are a much better team with a QB that can actually throw the ball effectively and they’ve got a new ace HC in Luke Fickell….They looked good, not great vs Buffalo in week one as they failed to cover the big number vs an average MAC team……Washington St ripped Colorado St apart with the THROW GAME and QB Cam Ward looked as good as ever with a brand new WR group…..Can they hold up vs the Badgers rushing attack that plowed for over 300 yards on the ground last week?…..Wisconsin has to travel out west but have revenge on their minds after Washington St SHOCKED the WORLD in Madison last year (W 17-14)….Fickell was just 7-11 ATS as road chalk during his reign in Cincy…..Mixed signals on this contest.
No leanage
32. Air Force -13.5 Sam Houston (37.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -16
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 25.5 Sam Houston 12
Sam Houston played inspired defense in their 14-CACK loss to BYU last week but the offense was an absolute ABOMINATION….They’ve got one week to prepare for the devastating Air Force triple option and note that the Falcons TUNED UP FCS turd Robert Morris last week 42-7 and rushed for 380 yards…..The total is low but Air Force should be able to score three or four TDs and cover the number.
Lean – Air Force -13.5
UPDATE – official play Air Force -13.5 -107 <sent 11:55am Sept 7>
33. Iowa -4 Iowa St (36.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 20.25 Iowa St 16.25
We give Iowa a great shot to take down the Big Ten West but have to admit that we’re a bit concerned about their performance vs Iowa St…..They got up 14-CACK early but couldn’t put Utah St away at home (W 24-14)…..In the good old days that would’ve been a 49-3 blowout….We’re lower than market on Iowa St but they handled a solid Northern Iowa team last week (W 30-7)….mind you they only managed 250Y of offense…..Head says Iowa but gut says Cyclones as they’ve owned the series somewhat as of late…..15-8-1 ATS L24.
No leanage
34. UTSA -13 Texas St (65)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -16
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 39 Texas St 26
This is a similar situation to the CORN/Colorado game…..Our numbers lean one way (UTSA) but there’s no way of really knowing how much better Texas St has become over the summer…..They beat Baylor on the road last week and it wasn’t a fluke…..UTSA outplayed Houston in their game one loss but were (-3) in turnovers.
No leanage
35. Georgia Southern -7.5 UAB (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -6
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 34 UAB 26.5
We’re very high on the Eagles this season compared to market and they did nothing wrong in their week one blasting of The Citadel (W 34-CACK)…..On the flipside….We don’t have high hopes for UAB at all BUT we have to take note that they looked impressive vs an FBS foe in their opener (W 35-6, NC A&T)……QB J Zeno was an impossible 38-41 in that game….Was hoping for a line in the -4 range but here we are…..Will wait for another data point on each squad.
No leanage
36. Kansas St -16.5 Troy (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -17
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 34 Troy 17.5
Difficult game to call ATS as both head coaches are excellent vs Vegas…..And the line looks on the money…..And both teams looked good in week one wins over FCS competition….Troy “only” won 48-30 vs SF Austin but note they had a 540-240 yd edge and were (-3) in turnovers.
No leanage
37. Oregon -6.5 Texas Tech (68.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -7
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 37.5 Texas Tech 31
The Red Raiders started out like a HOUSAFIRE vs Wyoming last week and then things went GLUG GLUG GLUG…..The Pokes won the game in 2OT and now Oregon is coming to town…..The Ducks scored an impossible 81 points vs the collection of bodies referred to as “Portland St” in game one but this is a yuuuge step up in class…..Will Texas Tech rebound or are they just overrated?…..Tough to say after just one game but we can’t fade Oregon at this number….yet have to respect the fact that Lubbock is a really tough place to play for opposing teams…..This is must-see TV and probably a game best attacked via SWEET IN-GAME ACTION.
No leanage
38. Houston -9.5 Rice (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Houston -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 31 Rice 21.5
The COOGS did some fine work last week as they weaseled past UTSA 17-14 to get MEGALOCKS ML UNDERDOG PLAYAZZ a winner….Truth be told they were outgained 417-334 by the Roadrunners but were the beneficiary of +3 t/o margin…..They allowed 200+ yards on the ground and thru the air…..It’s a tough sandwich spot for them (TCU up next, Big 12 opener at home) but note that they’ve taken care of LITTLE BROTHER seven times in a row (5-2 ATS)…..Slightest of leanages to the dog but would need +10 or better to consider.
No leanage
39. Mississippi St -9 Arizona (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 35 Arizona 26
Don’t adjust your sets, yo….After averaging 82,63,44 YPG on the ground over the L3Y the Bulldogs showed off their new balanced attack with 298 rushing yards vs SE Louisiana…..Sure that was a weak opponent but we like the fact that these guys will be more balanced on offense and they’ve still got a lot of upperclassmen on defense…..They took care of Arizona 39-17 in Tucson LY but note they’ve got a massively yuuuuge game with LSU on deck that may be diverting some of their attention….and the Cats can score the football if QB J de Laura is on his game….recall that they beat UCLA OUTRIGHT on the road at the end of the 2022 season.
No leanage
40. Auburn -6.5 California (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -5
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 30.5 California 24
For those young enough to remember the MIRACLE ON ICE when Team USA took down the mighty Communists from the USSR in Olympic ICE HOCKEY…..we now have a bit of a reverse situation where a team from the land of the HOME and the BRAVE travel to take on UPSTART COMMUNISTS……We favor the home team as the Golden Bears looked rock solid in game one behind their sound defense and devastating ground attack….We also like that HC Justin Wilcox is 10-4 ATS as a home dog…..Auburn makes their first trip out to the west coast since 2002 (!) when they visited USC…..Sadly we remember betting on Auburn that day and losing in a close shave…….Hugh Freeze is an ATS machine overall but just 13-16 ATS in his career as road chalk.
Lean – California +6.5
41. UCF -3.5 Boise St (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 32 Boise St 28.5
Boise St looked pretty good up 6-0 at Washington last week and then the walls totally caved in as they allowed 490 (!) passing yards en route to a 56-19 SHELLACKING…….They’ve only been a home dog twice in the L10Y so this is an unusual spot (1-1 ATS)……Not easy to back them off that game but UCF makes a big rise in class and long trip after their 50-point blowout win over Kent St…..The line has moved quite a bit from where it stood over the summer after just one game….Boise St a prime target to throw in the ML Underdog Wheel of Fun (see Friday blog) and we prefer that approach (one of five dogs, need three of them to hit) vs an isolated play on the Broncos.
No leanage
42. North Texas -13 FIU (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 32 FIU 19
We’ll take a wee taste of the ‘over’ in this spot….North Texas can SCORE the FOOTBALL and their defense is HOT TRASH….They allowed 300+ rushing and passing last week vs a Cal offense that stunk in 2022….FIU’s defense has looked better so far but recall they allowed 52,52,40,33 L4G in 2022….The offense looked better with QB Keyone Jenkins leading the way last week (292 passing yards, G James had FOUR in week one) so we think they’ll find a way to get past their team total….If not….the Mean Green could go bananas and get us to the window that way.
Lean – Over 51
43. North Carolina -18.5 Appalachian St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 38.5 Appalachian St 20
The point spread looks about right according to our numbers but recall that these two teams played a 63-61 classic LY and App St won’t be intimidated by the Carolina roster…..We highly doubt they can keep it within one score like last season but they got enough pop on offense and a decent DL that should allow them to keep it within the number…..Also note that the intrepid Marc Lawrence reminds us that App St is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Lean – App St +18.5
44. Florida Atlantic -3.5 Ohio (62.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida Atlantic -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida Atlantic 33 Ohio 29.5
We’re pretty high on the Owls this season as they’re one of the most experienced teams in the country with a new QB (5 TD last week vs Monmouth) and a HC in Tom Herman who’s got a 55-22 career win-loss record….Ohio’s star QB K Rourke is listed as probable for this week as is #1 WR S Wiglusz but how healthy are they?….Gotta be a bit of rust particularly for Rourke….Ohio won LY’s game 41-38 and now go on the road where the Owls are 13-4 SU since the 2020 PLANDEMIC season.
Lean – Florida Atlantic -3 -127 <-125 to -130 is widely available>
UPDATE: 6:20pm Sept 8: OFFICIAL PICK
Florida Atlantic -3 -122
NOTE – This is an upgrade from a lean earlier this week. We posted Florida Atlantic at -3 -127 on Thursday afternoon. You can now get a much better number at large offshore books like BetOnline (-114) and Pinnacle (-116) and -120s are fairly easy to find at this point.
We’ll call it -3 -122 for grading purposes as we top up our lean resulting in a lower blended rate.
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.