Week 2 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week. Point spreads and totals are consensus lines at time of posting unless otherwise noted.
Let’s go!
Update Sept 9 – 1-3 more picks coming by early Friday evening
Handy index: Quick Takes
- Hawaii at Michigan
- Akron at Michigan St
- Georgia Southern at CORN
- Maryland at Charlotte
- Kent St at Oklahoma
- UMass at Toledo
- Arkansas St at Ohio St
- Southern Miss at Miami
- FIU at Texas St
- New Mexico St at UTEP
- Boise St at New Mexico (Friday)
- Duke at Northwestern
- Virginia at Illinois
- Memphis at Navy
- Kansas at West Virginia
- Arizona St at Oklahoma St
- UAB at Liberty
- Ohio at Penn St
- Wake Forest at Vanderbilt
- Syracuse at Connecticut
- Colorado at Air Force
- Boston College at Virginia Tech
- Washington St at Wisconsin
- North Carolina at Georgia St
- Mississippi St at Arizona
- San Jose St at Auburn
- Houston at Texas Tech
- Western Michigan at Ball St
- Missouri at Kansas St (lean added Sept 9)
- Iowa St at Iowa
- South Carolina at Arkansas
- Appalachian St at Texas A&M
- Baylor at BYU
- USC at Stanford
- Marshall at Notre Dame
- Oregon St at Fresno St
- Old Dominion at East Carolina
- UNLV at California
- Northern Illinois at Tulsa
- UTSA at Army
- MTSU at Colorado St
- Louisville at UCF (Friday)
- Eastern Michigan at Louisiana
- South Alabama at Central Michigan
QUICK TAKES
Michigan -51 Hawaii (65) …….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -45
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Michigan -46.7 *
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 58 Hawaii 7
It’s been an ALOHA DUNG FIRE so far this season as Hawaii lost their first two games to Vanderbilt and WKU by a combined score of 112-27….They’ve shown brief flashes of goodness and were outgained by just 62 yards LW but six turnovers didn’t help….Michigan smoked Col St as expected in week one (W 51-7) and there’s another week of “QB tryouts” this Sat….HC Harbaugh is a good bully at home but the line is into the 50s and that means we’ll take a small taste of the yuuuge underdog as most reasonable minds think the line should be up to a TD lower than the market price…..Even a jerk like Jimbo has to have a bit of mercy late in the game….right?….RIGHT?
*Based on a calibration, manipulation, and extrapolation of several reputable sets of college football power ratings
Lean – Hawaii +51 (anywhere from 50-52 is available as we hit press time)
Michigan St -35 Akron (56) …….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -35
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Michigan St -37.4
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 45.5 Akron 10.5
Sparty didn’t exactly wipe the floor with Western Michigan in week one (W 35-13, late TD) and the Broncos shot themselves in the foot a few times….Line close to market and note that Michigan St travels to face Washington out West next week….Akron slithered past something known as Saint Francis in OT last week…not super jacked up to take the dog so will take a pass.
No leanage
CORN -22 Georgia Southern (60) …….MEGALOCKS line – CORN -25
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – CORN -25.5
Vegas Implied Score – CORN 41 Georgia Southern 19
Line might be a bit light but can anyone really expect CORN to put together four (or even three?) solid quarters of football?…..Will be cheering for them and the Eagles are PURE FILTH but gonna watch and hopefully learn.
No leanage
Maryland -27 Charlotte (65.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Maryland -19.7
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 46.25 Charlotte 19.25
Charlotte is off to a tough 0-2 start that includes a national audience beating at the hands of FAU and a home loss to something called William & Mary….The D stinks and QB C Reynolds is banged up….X Williams is a decent dual threat option tho inexperienced….Dey still gotz THROW GAME weapons, yo …….We love ourselves some Maryland season win total ‘over 5.5’ action and think they’ll roll in this spot BUT not sure where “-27” comes from?….Rarely make a play on the number alone but we’ll nibble a big on the home dog at this price.
Lean – Charlotte +27
Oklahoma -32 Kent St (71) …….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -31
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Oklahoma -33.8
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 51.5 Kent St 19.5
The Sooners just looked fine in their week one romp over UTEP and get another TOMATO CAN this week….FLASH FAST didn’t look bad vs Washington last week….Feels like a 28-35 point win….Line looks about right….Sooners will big game with CORN next week.
No leanage
Toledo -28.5 UMass (53) …….MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -29.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Toledo -27.9
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 40.5 UMass 12.25
Not a game we’ll get involved with….Line looks about right….UMass is PURE FILTH but they did rush for 200Y last week….then again, their QBs are worse than the Charlotte backup James “Incomplete Pass” Foster and they only threw for 17 (!) yards LW vs Tulane….Toledo building for MAC play could win by 30+ by accident.
No leanage
Ohio St -44 Arkansas St (68) …….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -45
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Ohio St -51.4
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 56 Arkansas St 12
Ohio St can name their score and R Day is 12-8 ATS as home chalk….Note tho that Ohio St would be nuts to play their best WR JSN given his hammy issue….Ark St is HOT GARBAGE on D but they can SCORE the FOOTBALL….maybe not on Ohio St, but they have potential to hit the team total and then who knows if they cover or not?
No leanage
Miami -26 Southern Miss (57) …….MEGALOCKS line – Miami -27
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Miami -28.7
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 41.5 Southern Miss 15.5
YOUR Miami Hurricanes have a yuuuuge date with the greatest SEC team of all-time next week and we don’t know what do think about Southern Miss….They played toe-to-toe with Liberty which isn’t horrible….market price looks about right.
No leanage
Texas St -13 FIU (56) …….MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -10
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Texas St -12.3
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 34.5 FIU 21.5
Virtually impossible game to call….Texas St was CREMATED by Nevada last week (L38-14) whilst FIU needed a miracle 4Q comeback to allow themselves to go for two in OT and take down something called Bryant by a score of 38-37….the BOBS look more than fully valued at -13 but FIU is the definition of a rebuilding team.
No leanage
UTEP -14 New Mexico St (45.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – UTEP -13.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UTEP -13.9
Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 29.75 New Mexico St 15.75
Market looks like is has this BAD BOY pegged properly…..New Mexico St has some of the worst QB play ever seen on planet Earth ** but their D isn’t bad and note that they outgained Nevada 303-257 in week one but were (-5) in t/o…..MINER NATION desperate for a win sitting at 0-2 but have two CUPCAKES in back-to-back weeks…..need all hands on deck for this one….Feels like fav or pass but price ain’t cheap.
** fact check: true; also, the moon landing was faked
No leanage
Boise St -16.5 New Mexico (45.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -19.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Boise St -22.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 31 New Mexico 14.5
The Broncos were abused by the Beavers in week one and we can only hope that they stick with back-up QB Taylen Green who gives them someone to work with for the future whilst also giving them mobility and “brains” at the QB position…..Line looks a bit short but Boise doesn’t appear to have much at WR and who knows where the team psyche is at?….The Lobos are complete TRASH on offense but can play a bit of defense…..Lobos HC 5-14 ATS, Boise HC didn’t have his team ready at all in week one…..this game looks disgusting in almost every way but we’ll sprinkle on the “value” side.
Lean – Boise St -16.5
Northwestern -9.5 Duke (56.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Northwestern -15.6
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 33 Duke 23.5
Will take a small position for now on PATS CATS as the line looks a bit low….particularly after they crushed the SOULS of CORN NATION back in that August Dublin special feature….They’re not a perfect squad but appear to be much improved, particulalry at QB and OL….Duke looks like they may have found a QB in Riley Leonard who threw for over 300Y vs Temple and rushed for more than 60Y…..then again, that was Temple and their D still looks rotten on paper….fun facts….Duke has won the last three between these squads….Northwestern is 23-35-1 ATS (39.6%) under HC Fitz as a home fav…..can’t blast the home team knowing that but we feel like NW has the MINERALS to win by 10 or more……..probably.
Lean – Northwestern -9.5
Illinois -4.5 Virginia (56.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -2
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Illinois -0.7
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 30.5 Virginia 26
Illinois could easily be 2-0 (beat Wyoming) but they found a way to puke the game away vs Indiana despite outgaining the home team 451-362 (-2 t/o)…..Virginia is nothing special but they still have a top-10 QB and their defense should be able to handle the plodding Illinois D….Line looks a bit rich to us even tho it pains us to back the Cavs who we were worried about coming into the season….maybe just maybe they’re better than we think?……Feels like a one-score game going into the 4Q.
Lean – Virginia +4.5
Memphis -6.5 Navy (51.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -6
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Memphis -6.6
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 28.75 Navy 22.25
We’d love to take a stab at the dog but this isn’t YO MOMMA’s Navy football team that has been so good in recent times….they’re just 7-16 SU since the beginning of the 2020 PLANDEMIC season ** and things won’t be getting better any time soon unless they find a half-decent option QB….You can throw out Memphis’ week one game, not a disgrace to get drilled by YOUR Mississippi St Bulldogs who are an BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT in the SEC…..Line looks dead on.
** trust the science
No leanage
West Virginia -13 Kansas (58) …….MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -15
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – West Virginia -15.7
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 35.5 Kansas 22.5
ARGH…..were hoping to see a +17 for the Jayhawks who are a much-improved squad….recall that they beat Texas near the end of LY and lost to WV at home by just 6 pts in the 2021 curtain call….They blasted Tenn Tech 56-10 in week one but we need at least one FBS data point before jumping on their bandwagon…..WV played well in the Backyard Brawl but completely shat the game away in the 4th Q….Neal Brown just might be a G5 coach and no better…..Line “value” might be with the WV side but we think Kansas can hang around…..might reassess if it hits +14 stay tuned.
No leanage <Holding Pattern Alert: Will reassess if it gets to +14>
Oklahoma St -11 Arizona St (55.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Oklahoma St -11.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 33.25 Arizona St 22.25
Oklahoma St looks like an “over” team if that week one shootout with FIRE UP CHIPS means anything (W 58-44)….Not sure what to make of the TEMPE FIGHTING HERMS and need an FBS data point or two….Think that these teams can get to 56 even with Emory Jones at QB for the Sun Devils.
Lean – over 55.5
UAB -5.5 Liberty (52.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – UAB -3
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UAB -1.8
Vegas Implied Score – UAB 29 Liberty 23.5
Liberty lost starting QB Charlie Brewer and that makes this game too tough to handicap….and this is the first FBS opponent that new UAB HC B Vincent will face….Some PR have adjusted for Brewer’s injury whilst others have not……Think the line will trickle down a bit but this game feels like a crapshoot ATS
No leanage
Penn St -25 Ohio (53.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -27
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Penn St -30.3
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 39.25 Ohio 14.25
WHOA NELLIE….the Bobcats played their best game in a while last week and took down a decent FAU team (W 41-38) whilst getting fine QB play from BABY ROURKE….Penn St as a yuuuge game with Auburn on deck but it’s hard to take the dog when the number looks this (theoretically) short and note that Penn St HC James Franklin has a fine history of spanking MAC teams like a RED-HEADED STEPCHILD…..LY Ball St 44-13….2019 Buffalo 45-13…..2018 Kent St 63-10…..2017 Akron 52-CACK…etc…..Tough call at this market price
No leanage
Wake Forest -13 Vanderbilt (66) …….MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -11
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Wake Forest -13.6 (assume QB Hartman worth 5 points)
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 39.5 Vanderbilt 26.5
We got great news on Tuesday as it looks as tho we may see Sam Hartman back at QB for Wake….He threw for well over 4,000 yards LY and led the DEACS to a division title….Their backup looked fine last week but that was vs VMI…..You know that MEGALOCKS Season Win Total Club members have the champagne on ice as the Commodores need just one more win to hit the the ‘over’ 2.5 wins….They’ve got a bunch of “medium severity” injuries all over the roster including the DL but we expect them to be healthier this week….and we love what QB M Wright is doing at QB….The home dog will be able to score….and we think they’ll keep this game within 2 TDs.
Lean – Vanderbilt +13
Syracuse -23 Connecticut (49)…….MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Syracuse -22.3
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 36 Connecticut 13
YES GUY……those ORANGE just CREMATED the young men from LUA-VUH (W 31-7) last week in the Dome and it didn’t look like a fluke….The THROW GAME is way more impressive and the D did a great job….UConn has been a bit better than advertised but still have a long way to go….They do enough on the ground to make things interesting and just need a break here or there to cover….Not crazy about laying this many points with the Orange but can’t fault you for doing so, yo.
No leanage
Air Force -17.5 Colorado (48.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -13.9
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Air Force -14.2
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 33 Colorado 15.5
We were hoping for a line below “14” but alas, it wasn’t meant to be…..Air Force moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE vs Northern Iowa and rushed for an impossible 582 (!) yards….Note that they have their MW opener next week (Wyoming….where road favorites go to die **)…..Colorado discovered a bit of a passing attack with JT Shrout last week and he’ll likely split duties with the ALL RUN NO PASS Brendon Lewis…..Feel like the total is a wee bit low and has been steamed today… can still get 48 at a reasonable price if you shop around, 48.5 isn’t horrible…..Small potatoes – ENGAGE!
** fact check: sorta true. just ask Tulsa.
Lean – Over 48.5 -115
Virginia Tech -3 Boston College (46)…….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -3.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Virginia Tech -3.3
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 24.5 Boston College 21.5
The Hokies gave the game away last week vs Old Dominion…..they outgained the Monarchs 340-245 but had 14 penalties, 5 turnovers, and a medium range FG attempt that had a snap go backwards about 60 yards ** resulting in an ODU TD…..The D was great and the Monarchs hit a 4th Q deep ball setting them up for the winning score….QB Grant Wells is an INT waiting to happen but he’s not horrible and the rushing attack looked decent at times…..BC OL is a DUMPSTER FIRE and their QB (NFL? wut) has no time to throw and has the mobility of a glacier….BC rushed for 29 (!) yards vs Rutgers at home and have one star player (WR Flowers)…..that’s it…..The BC DL got rolled by Rutgers who had no threat of a THROW GAME and the Scarlet Knights went the length of the field for the game winning drive….12 runs and one incomplete pass…..Home field might actually mean something in this one as the completely new BC OL had trouble blocking Rutgers when they sent any kind of pressure…Feels like a short price and will take GOBBLE GOBBLE to cover.
** fact check: not sure, but it seemed like it, yo
Official play – Virginia Tech -3 -105 <sent 9:03pm Sept 6>
Wisconsin -17.5 Washington St (49)…….MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -19.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Wisconsin -20.8
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 33.25 Washington St 15.75
Two teams that we don’t really know much about yet….Washington St slithered past Idaho in week one (W 24-17) but held the Vandals to 274Y and managed to book an impressive 7 (!) sacks….all whilst star FCS transfer QB Cameron Ward started to get comfortable….Wisconsin crushed FCS TOMATO CAN Illinois St (38-CACK) in game one but we still have questions about a D that lost so much talent and a QB that might not have much talent…..hmmmm.
No leanage
North Carolina -7.5 Georgia St (64.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -7
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – North Carolina -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 36 Georgia St 28.5
The Panthers get another kick at the POWER FIVE COMPLEX this week…They held their own vs South Cackalacky last week (L 35-14) as they won the yardage battle but gave up a PAIR (!) of blocked punt TDs…..They rushed for 200Y vs the COCKS and held them in check on defense…UNC has proven to be a deadly offense so far with new QB Drake Maye and roll into town off their crazy 63-61 win over App St….yup, their D stinks….Will take a small taste of the underdog but UNC has enough firepower to make us a bit wobbly heading to the window.
Lean – Georgia St +7.5
Mississippi St -10.5 Arizona (60)…….MEGALOCKS line – Mississipi St -10.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Mississippi St -10.9
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 35.25 Arizona 24.75
It’s an interesting DEGENERATE BAIL YOURSELF OUT SPECIAL as these teams tangle at 11pm Sat….gonna leave this game alone pre-flop and might consider sweet in-game action….The line looks about right and both teams are near the top of our AWARD-WINNING “play on” list.
No leanage
Auburn -23 San Jose St (50.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -23
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Auburn -19.4
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 36.75 San Jose St 13.75
The Spartans looked absolutely brutal last week as they were outgained by the artist formerly-known as Portland St (395-288) but managed to escape with a 21-17 win….Hard to believe this team won the Mtn West during the 2020 SCAMDEMIC season **….Auburn has a collection of STIFFS at QB and are still working thru things….Would have liked this number closer to -20 but alas, it wasn’t meant to be….Tigers have yuuuuge game with Penn St on deck.
** trust the science
No leanage
Texas Tech -3 Houston (63.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -3.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Texas Tech -3.1
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 33.25 Houston 30.25
The Red Raiders are another one of our “play on” teams to start the season….They got a good tune-up last week vs Murray St (W 63-10) and the boast a deadly THROW GAME and great 1-2 punch at RB….We’ll hope for better things on the defensive side of the football….4 sacks last week and they held Houston to 21 in last year’s win….All three (!) QBs looked good last week and Donovan Smith gets the call this week given the injury to T Schough….Houston scraped by UTSA in OT last week and averaged a mere 4.5 YPP…..They didn’t have much of a rushing attack without star RB A McCaskill and while Clayton Tune is a solid QB he can only do so much with one star WR in Tank Dell….Tune was sacked four times LW…..he threw four INT last year vs the Red Raiders and averaged 4.6 yards per pass.
Official play – Texas Tech -3 -105 <sent 3:53pm Sept 7>
Western Michigan -6.5 Ball St (52.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -6
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Western Michigan -6.7
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 29.5 Ball St 23
We’ll take a small stab on the road fav in this BAD BOY……We liked the way the Broncos played vs Michigan St and it’s quite possible that we underrated this bunch….QB Jack Salopek appears to have a LASER ROCKET ARM and the D isn’t bad….WM played better than the 35-13 score vs Sparty indicated….Ball St got DRILLED by the Vols as expected but they appear to be the worst team in the division….HC M Neu just 3-9 ATS as a home dog.
Lean – Western Michigan -6.5
Kansas St -7.5 Missouri (56.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -7.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Kansas St -8.9
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 32 Missouri 24.5
Not a game we’ll get involved with as the spread and total look spot on according to our DEEP BIG 12 INSIDERS….Kansas St is on our “play on” list and they dismantled South Dakota last week by a score of 34-CACK despite throwing for less than 100Y….We’re not crazy about Missouri HC Drinkwitz but we’re probably one of the biggest fans of QB Brady Cook who won’t WOW you but he just gets the job done….They smoked La Tech 52-24 last week….Need at least one more data point on both teams.
UPDATE: Lean added Sept 9: Kansas St -7 -113 <-110 to -115 widely available>
Iowa -3.5 Iowa St (40.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Iowa -6.9
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 22 Iowa St 18.5
We’re sure there’s a bet to be made on this game but we can’t find it….Iowa scored seven points last week without booking a TD ** but they have the best unit in this game by FAR (defense) and they’ve won six straight vs Iowa St….RUSSIAN ROULETTE is safer than playing under 40.5 in a college football game even tho that makes total sense.
** fact check: true
No leanage
Arkansas -8.5 South Carolina (52.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas -8.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Arkansas -10.6
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas 30.5 South Carolina 22
We think the line looks about right although the AWARD WINNING MMC has the fair number at 10.6…..WOO PIG got thru their game with Cincinnati (W 31-24) but it was a very even game and note that the Razorbacks’ two best defenders were both banged up in that one….status unknown as we approach press time….South Carolina beat Georgia St by 21 last week but they were outgained and scored a pair (!) of TDs on punt returns….Nonetheless they are a scrappy bunch….Home team has covered six of last eight in the series….COCKS have covered three straight….Tough call at this market price for us.
No leanage
Texas A&M -19 Appalachian St (54)…….MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -19.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Texas A&M -20.0
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 36.5 Appalachian St 17.5
The price isn’t cheap but we’ll roll for small taters with the home team despite having YOUR Miami Hurricanes on deck….They threw for over 300Y in last week’s win over Sam Houston but didn’t have much success on the ground….We expect them to hit 500Y of offense in this one with more than the 110 ground yards they had last week….App St off a heartbreaking loss to UNC in which the scored 60 and still tasted defeat….their conference schedule opens up next week…..JIMBO 12-3 ATS vs non-conf opponents with the Aggies.
Lean – Texas A&M -19
BYU -3.5 Baylor (53.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – BYU -5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – BYU – 5.9
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 28.25 Baylor 25.25
We’re definitely high on both of these squads, and our BIG 12 DEPARTMENT believes that we may have underrated Baylor coming into the season….They took care of something known as Albany last week (W 69-10) and recall that they smoked BYU 38-24 in Waco LY….BYU is a tough team to beat at home and our numbers suggest they are the play but our gut tells us this is a toss-up ATS….Expect to see a physical game with random severed body parts flying everywhere **.
** fact check: it’s possible
No leanage
USC -8.5 Stanford (67.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – USC -9.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – USC -11.3
Vegas Implied Score – USC 38 Stanford 29.5
USC is a tempting choice at this price given the offensive weaponry they bring to bear and recall that they smoked Rice 66-14 last week (538 yards, THREE pick-6 TDs) …..Stanford often gives the Trojans fits and have beaten them in two of the last four meetings…..The Cardinal are MUCH better with a healthy Tanner McKee at QB but we worry about that defense…..:Lean to the dog but we’d need +10 to take a stab…..Highly unlikely, but not totally and completely impossible.
No leanage
Notre Dame -20.5 Marshall (51)…….MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -22
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Notre Dame -21.7
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 35.75 Marshall 15.25
The Irish gave Ohio St all they could handle in week one (L 21-10) and held the mighty Buckeyes to under 400Y of total offense….New HC Marcus Freeman is still looking for his first win (bowl loss, last week loss) and it’s virtually certain they’ll get it here….Marshall still had the run game working last week despite the absence of star RB Rasheen Ali but that was Norfolk St…Line looks about right to us.
No leanage
Oregon St -1 Fresno St (60.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -1.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Fresno St -2.2
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 30.75 Fresno St 29.75
Gotta give it those Beavers who were ready to go in their 34-17 win over Boise St last week, an 80,000 STAR MEGALOCKS WE HOPE U DIE IN A HELICOPTER CRASH LOCK loser…..Boise St gave the game away early BUT even if they didn’t, who’s to say Oregon St couldn’t have beat them without the help of five turnovers?….The D looked solid and the offense was balanced….We have Fresno rated as the best team in the Mountain West and they’ve got an elite QB and veteran squad…Home field is a plus as it’s an underrated venue when it’s packed (it will be)…Oregon St is just 5-16 (!) ON THE HIGHWAY under HC J Smith.
Official play – Fresno +1 -105 <sent 4:55pm Sept 9>
East Carolina -12.5 Old Dominion (51.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -11.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – East Carolina -11.7
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 32.25 Old Dominion 19.75
Not a game we’re gonna get involved with….The line looks spot on and how does East Carolina bounce back after snatching DEFEAT from the jaws of VICTORY vs NC State last week?….Old Dominion SHOCKED the WORLD by beating Virginia Tech despite booking just 245 yards of total offense….letdown or full of confidence this week?
No leanage
California -13 UNLV (50.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – California -14
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – California -13.7
Vegas Implied Score – California 31.75 UNLV 18.75
We liked what we saw from QB D Brumfield in week one….Threw for over 300Y in the first half (!) and WR Ricky White (Michigan St transfer) was a beast….ya….it was Idaho St….but we are confident they can score on a Cal team that has so many new faces….They also have a new starting QB but will still have no confidence in the Rebels defense.
Lean – UNLV team total over 18.5 (implied)
Tulsa -6 Northern Illinois (62)…….MEGALOCKS line – Tulsa -6
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Tulsa -5.8
Vegas Implied Score – Tulsa 34 Northern Illinois 28
Tough game to call….Both of these teams are on our AWARD WINNING “play against” list to start the season….Tulsa lost a lot from LY including their ace DC and come into this one off a multiple OT loss at Wyoming….They should be fully motivated tho as starting 0-2 would make a bowl bid a LOT tougher to bag….The Huskies were outgained by Eastern Illinois (!) last week but have proven to be a tough out under HC T Hammock.
No leanage
UTSA -2.5 Army (54.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -2.9
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UTSA -0.9
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 28.5 Army 26
The Black Knights got a taste of their own medicine last week as Coastal Carolina played bully ball and held the ball for 36 minutes (!) whilst rushing for 263 yards….The Army D and QB play might be down a notch this year and that’s not great news….UTSA off a tough loss to Houston tho and Army is 33-12 SU (!) under HC J Monken at home….Mixed signals but lean with the road team.
Lean – UTSA -2.5
Colorado St -11 MTSU (57)…….MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -10.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Colorado St -8.8
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 34 MTSU 23
We’re a bit higher than the market on this bad boy but it might be that the Blue Raiders are a complete DUNG PILE….They were cremated by James Madison (!) last week (L 44-7) whilst being outgained 548-119 and now go on the road to face a Mountain West squad….Colorado St got killed at the Big House in week one (L 51-7) but we expect them to improve as the season rolls along.
No leanage
UCF -5.5 Louisville (61.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -7
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UCF -5.9
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 33.5 Louisville 28
We’re high on UCF this season and they get a change to avenge their 42-35 loss at LUA-VUH last year….They played an FCS scrub last week in S Carolina St and won handily (56-10)….Not much to say about that easy win but they’re healthy, motivated, and talented…LUA-VUH got rolled by Syracuse last week (L 31-7) and looked really bad in the process…..This just might be DEAD TEAM WALKING if they don’t find a way to win this game….LUA-VUH 2-9 SU L11 road games and UCF has won their last 8 in a row at home.
Lean – UCF -5.5
Louisiana -11.5 Eastern Michigan (51.5)……MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -10
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Louisiana -11.9
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 31.5 Eastern Michigan 20
The Cajuns have moved on from HC Billy Napier, starting QB Levi Lewis, and lots of other talented folks….They took care of FCS scrub SE Louisiana last week (W 24-7) and looked MEH in the process….The Eagles got past a good FCS team in week one (Eastern Kentucky) by a score of 42-34 and have been a REALLY good road dog under HC Chris Creighton….25-12-1 ATS (!) (68%).
Lean – Eastern Michigan +11.5
Central Michigan -5 South Alabama (59)…….MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -7
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Central Michigan -7.9
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 32 South Alabama 27
We’ll take a stab with the home team in this one….Central Michigan is one of the top-two teams in the MAC in our estimation (Toledo) and they fought to the wire in their week one loss at Oklahoma St whilst scoring 44 points….a lot of it in garbage time….but that was still an impressive feat….The Jags smoked something known as Nicholls last week (W 48-7) but we’re not high on their Sun Belt prospects and note that they were 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS ON THE HIGHWAY in 2021.
Lean – Central Michigan -5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.