Texas at Alabama
posted Sept 8
The Game
We’ve been waiting all summer and the game is finally here.
ROLL TIDE and Texas go head-to-head in a rematch of last year’s one-point Alabama victory in Austin. Texas looked decent in their week one win over Rice in which they outgained HOOT HOOT by a margin of 458-176 (W 37-10). ROLL TIDE incinerated MTSU 56-7 and looked like a team ready to go on a mission.
GET CHO POPCONE!
The Details
Alabama -7 Texas (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 30.25 Texas 23.25
Alabama offense vs Texas defense
QB Jalen Milroe doesn’t have to replace the great Bryce Young but he has to be able to DO WHAT HE DOES, and that’s create all kinds of problems with his legs (48 yds, 2 TD last week) whilst being efficient in the THROW GAME. Milroe was the team’s leading rusher last week as it looks as tho Alabama will roll with a committee approach at RB early in the season to keep doods fresh. They don’t have a “loaded” WR group by their standards but there are enough guys to do damage if Texas is forced to commit more guys to stopping the run. That’ll likely be the case as the rushing combo of Milroe/RBs and that OL will almost certainly have success. Texas has a solid defense and they held ROLL TIDE to 20 points in last year’s game although they did allow 161 yards on the ground which included one biggie size TD run. Bama is gonna be tough to beat if they can make Texas respect the medium to deep ball. <grabs popcorn>
Texas offense vs Alabama defense
The Longhorns have a rising star at QB in Quinn Ewers and he looked pretty good for a short time vs Alabama LY before getting knocked out of the game. Ewers got off to a good start in week 1 vs Rice (260, 3-0 TD to INT) and the Longhorns have one of the best WR groups that ROLL TIDE will face all season. They’re also deep at the RB position and it appears as tho highly-touted specimen CJ Baxter is healthy and ready to contribute significantly when they call his number. The Texas ground game was held in check by Alabama LY (79 yards) and we expect their veteran OL to open up a few more holes this time around, but the Longhorns certainly will have to work for everything they get. It’ll come down to the elite WR/TE options making plays vs a talented ROLL TIDE secondary to determine the outcome of this game. A couple of key players on the back end for Alabama are banged up but there’s no reason to believe they’ll miss this game as we approach press time.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Nick Saban is 28-2 SU vs former assistants….welcome to Tuscaloosa, Steve Sarkisian…….The weather forecast looks perfect….low 80s with light winds…..Speakng of Sarkisian, he’s been brutal in the role of road dog over the course of his career (9-18 ATS, 0-3 with Texas).
Summary
We think that ROLL TIDE can control the tempo of this game with their rushing attack, at least for the first 30 minutes. They’ll want to make this a SNOT BUBBLER as opposed to Texas who wants to make it more of a TRACK MEET. There’s a good chance that both defenses play well early on given the stakes on the line.
Conclusion
Lean – Under 27.5 FIRST HALF <27.5 is widely available>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.