Pittsburgh at West Virginia
posted Sept 15
Updated later on Sept 15 – See below for details
The Game
It’s BACKYARD BRAWL time, yo.
Get ready for some good old school hatred as Pitt travels to take on West Virginia in Morgantown. West Virginia was no match for mighty Penn St in their opener but didn’t fare that poorly (L 38-15) and they followed that up with a 56-17 win over the thing known as Duquense (W 56-17). Pitt strutted their stuff in the opener vs Wofford (W 45-7) and laid an egg at home vs Cincinnati in game #2 as the Bearcats walked away with a 27-21 victory.
We expect lots of emotion and some big plays. Let’s do ittttttt !
The Details
West Virginia -2.5 Pittsburgh (47)
MEGALOCKS LINE – West Virginia -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: West Virginia 24.75 Pittsburgh 22.25
West Virginia offense vs Pittsburgh defense
The Mountaineers have one of the best offensive lines in the Big 12 and a fine RB duo in CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White to utilize against the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Pitt defense that allowed Cincinnati to rush for 216 yards in their upset win last week. Also note that QB Garrett Greene has some fine wheels (104, 5.2, TD) and he hasn’t thrown an INT yet in 45 attempts (sacked just twice). As far as the THROW GAME goes the Mountaineers have three legit weapons in WR Devin Carter, TE Kole Taylor, and something called a Hudson Clement who went nuts last week (5-177, 3 TD). Pitt is gonna have to find a way to get West Virginia into 3rd and long situations but it won’t be easy if they can’t stop the run. The Panthers have six sacks in two games so there’s hope that they can create a bit of havoc and force a turnover or two.
Pittsburgh offense vs West Virginia defense
QB Phil Jurkovec hasn’t thrown an INT yet in two contests but he’s completing just 49% (!) of his passes and has been sacked six times. They’ve got a decent committee of RBs and a legit TE weapon in Gavin Bartholomew but it doesn’t appear that they have many legit doods at WR like they’ve featured in many recent campaigns. West Virginia has held up ok vs the run so far but they had trouble with Penn St’s Drew Allar in week one (332Y). They don’t have a particularly scary pass rush but they’ve booked four sacks in two games and Jurkovec (whilst nimble at times) isn’t nearly the running threat that Greene is for West Virginia. We expect the Panthers to have their moments in this game but think they’ll have to rely a lot more on the THROW GAME than the Mountaineers. That could mean trouble.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
These two teams treated us to an entertaining game to open the 2022 season…..The game was dead even and Pitt won it on a pick six in the 4th Q (38-31 final)…..The weather forecast looks good as we approach press time…..Light winds and perfect football temps….Showers should hold off until after the game………Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi is 16-10 ATS as a road dog with the Panthers.
Summary
We like the home team in this spot as the Mountaineers should have no problem DOING what they DO on offense. Run the ball, sprinkle is some deep shots. The Pitt offense looks discombobulated at the moment and we trust West Virginia more in the trenches.
Conclusion
We’ll back the home team. Update coming later this afternoon (lean/small play vs official play)
UPDATE – official pick – West Virginia -2.5 -115 <sent Sept 15 4:20pm>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.