Week 3 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
Official picks in blue; Leans/Small plays in green.
LEANS ARE FINAL – one added
- UTEP at Arizona
- ULM at Texas A&M
- Northwestern at Duke
- Akron at Kentucky
- New Mexico St at New Mexico
- ROLL TIDE at USF
- Wyoming at Texas
- Washington at Michigan St
- WKU at Ohio St
- Iowa St at Ohio
- Florida Atlantic at Clemson
- BYU at WOO PIG
- Bowling Green at Michigan
- Penn St at Illinois
- LSU at Mississippi St
- Fresno St at Arizona St
- Kansas at Nevada
- Georgia Tech at Ole Miss
- Navy at Memphis (Thursday)
- Army at UTSA (Friday)
- Virginia at Maryland (Friday)
- Utah St at Air Force (Friday)
- Minnesota at North Carolina
- Tulane at Southern Miss
- Northern Illinois at CORN
- James Madison at Troy
- South Alabama at Oklahoma St
- East Carolina at Appalachian St
- Hawaii at Oregon
- Louisiana at UAB
- Georgia Southern at Wisconsin
- Kansas St at Missouri
- Central Michigan at Notre Dame
- Wake Forest at Old Dominion
- Louisville vs Indiana (N)
- Oklahoma at Tulsa
- Western Michigan at Iowa
- Colorado at Colorado St
- FIU at UConn
- TCU at Houston
- San Diego St at Oregon St
- North Texas at Louisiana Tech
- San Jose St at Toledo
- Florida St at Boston College
- Virginia Tech at Rutgers
- Liberty at Buffalo
- Massachusetts at E Michigan (lean added Friday 3:55pm)
- South Carolina at Georgia
- Georgia St at Charlotte
- Miami Ohio at Cincinnati
- Vanderbilt at UNLV
- Syracuse at Purdue
QUICK TAKES
1. Arizona -17 UTEP (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -17
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 36.5 UTEP 19.5
MINER NATION travels to Arizona after getting blasted by Northwestern and this will be their 3rd road test of the year…..They’re not playing a good brand of football right now (-5 t/o margin, #83 offense, #110 penalty yards) and it’s likely they need a drop in competition before/if they turn it around….Arizona turned the ball over five times last week and still took Miss St to OT….QB J de Laura has a mediocre 5-5 TD to INT mark and they haven’t established any kind of ground game…P12 play on deck.
No leanage
2. Texas A&M -34 ULM (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -32
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M -34 ULM (53.5)
YOUR Miami Hurricanes dealt a beating to the Aggies last week and this is a tough sandwich spot for Texas A&M (Auburn next)….ULM upset Army in week one to the joy of ML UNDERDOG CLUB members and slid past something known as Lamar in week two….They’ve been running the ball well and can probably do a bit of damage vs the A&M front but their QB play is horrendous….Jimbo is 16-4 ATS as home chalk with the Aggies….ULM is 4-9 ATS as a road dog under T Bowden….Looks like a 28+ point win and a 50/50 cover proposition at the current price.
No leanage
3. Duke -19.5 Northwestern (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Duke -17
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 33 Northwestern 13.5
Northwestern showed some spunk in their home win vs UTEP (W 38-7) but they’ve still got a very weak roster and are playing the JUGGERNAUT Duke team that’s already got a win over Clemson to brag about…..Like Duke at -14 and NW at +21 or better and right now we’re in NO MAN’S LAND.
No leanage
4. Kentucky -25 Akron (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -27
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 38 Akron 13
The Cats haven’t looked that great in their first two games vs scrubs (Ball St, E Kentucky) and they get another shot at one before SEC play begins….Akron scored on a miracle scoop and score last week with under a minute left to survive the JABBAWOCKEE known as Morgan St (W 24-21) and they had to turn to their back-up QB…..THE UNDERCUFFLER…..after DJ Irons was playing like DOO DOO…..Cats 11-3-1 ATS L15 vs MAC teams…..Would want 28+ to sprinkle on the Zips.
No leanage
5. New Mexico -1 New Mexico St (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico St -1
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 26 New Mexico 25
No idea what to do with this game as it’s a clear toss-up….New Mexico St off a disappointing conference loss at Liberty….Not sure how bad the Lobos are but at least they’ve got a QB now….D Hopkins 4 TD passes LW vs Tenn Tech……..Note that the road team is 11-2-1 ATS L14.
No leanage
6. ROLL TIDE -32 USF (61.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -30
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 46.75 USF 14.75
The Tide come into town for a rare road game vs a non-Power 5 team….The intrepid PHIL STEELE reminds us that the last time they did that was way back in 1992 **…..They’ve gotta be smarting after that loss to Texas and they’ve got Ole Miss on deck….They’ll be able to do whatever they want to the USF defense as they’re PURE FILTH on that side of the football….The Bulls have a very exciting QB in Byrum Brown (363 pass, 183 rush in 2G!) and we think they’ll get into the end zone once or twice….Number looks about right.
No leanage
** you know, the year where the “scientists” told us that Florida would be underwater by 1995 due to “climate change”
7. Texas -28 Wyoming (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -26
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 38.25 Wyoming 10.25
Yes, guy…..Texas came up with a yuuuuge win over ROLL TIDE (!) last week and it really wasn’t any doubt who the better team was on Saturday night….Massive theoretical letdown spot for the Horns as they have Baylor on deck and you know the Pokes will try and grind this BAD BOY into oblivion…..Spread looks a wee bit high to us but Wyoming will have very little success running vs the Texas front and we know they can’t pass….They do play good D tho and note they found a way to beat Texas Tech.
No leanage
8. Washington -16.5 Michigan St (58)………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -14
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 37.25 Michigan St 20.75
SPARTY will be without HC Mel Tucker who’s suspended indefinitely and were not sure what that means for this game but it’s not like it can’t be a good thing….AMIRITE?….Michigan St has looked good vs a pair of CREAM PUFFS, QB N Kim has a 5-0 TD to INT ratio, and RB N Carter has over 200Y….Both of Washington’s opponents managed to run the ball pretty well but were forced to get out of that mode once Washington started laying on the points….They could do that in this one but it’s a long trip and PAC 12 play is on deck…Revenge spot for SPARTY after losing in Seattle LY…..Wash QB M Penix has been an animal so far (859Y, 8 TD) but it’s not like their defense is anything special….We’ll nibble on the dog hoping they can stick within 17.
Lean – Michigan St +16.5
9. Ohio St -27.5 WKU (64)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 45.75 WKU 18.25
Could be a GET RIGHT spot for the Buckeyes as their offense hasn’t looked as good as we hoped it would……but it’s only two games, yo….WKU’s defense looks much worse than LY’s version but they’re still able to score points…..Ohio St with the yuuuge game against the Irish on deck….Line looks fair.
No leanage
10. Iowa St -2.5 Ohio (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 23.75 Ohio 21.25
Those WACKY Ohio Bobcats upset the APPLE CART last week with a gutty road win over FAU….They won the game 17-10 but didn’t give up an offensive TD and were much the better team…..They’ve also beaten Long Island (wooo) and lost to San Diego St…They’re 2-1 but have played the #132 schedule according to Sagarin and have turned the ball over 8 times in 3G….This after being a robust +12 LY…..Star QB K Rourke ** threw two INT last week and their top-two WRs are still less than 100%…..YES….Iowa St has Big 12 play on deck but note that Ohio has conference play on deck and make no mistake…..Ohio hasn’t won the MAC since 1968 and they’ve got (probably) the best QB in the conference…..Their #1 goal is to win the MAC regardless if some mid-tier P5 program is coming to town…..Rourke isn’t 100% either so we see the coaching staff playing it safe if anyone gets banged up…..And banged up they’ll be….Iowa St has played excellent defense this season and note that they won the stats battle with Iowa (!) last week (19-9 FD, 290-235 yards) and they haven’t allowed a sack yet…..They’re offense is close to an ABOMINATION but it should be at least average vs a good MAC team…..We’ve got the fair number in the -5.5/-6 range and several other trusted PR sources have it higher…..We’ll bite BAYBEE.
** hometown – Oakville, Ontario (Canada ^^)
^^ Canada – the assisted suicide capital of the world %%
%% literally true
Official play – Iowa St -2.5 -104 <sent Sept 11, 4:11pm>
11. Clemson -24 Florida Atlantic (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -24
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 38 Florida Atlantic 14
Not a game we’re gonna get involved in…..Clemson hasn’t looked great to say the least but neither has Florida Atlantic who SHAT the BED last week vs Ohio in a 566 STAR MEGALOCKS CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED HEART ATTACK POWER LOCK loser…..The Owls couldn’t run the ball at all last week and they lost star safety A Eli-Adams indefinitely….Line looks about right….Clemson has the yuuuuge game with Florida St on deck…..Was hoping to nibble on the Owls but they looked baaaad last week on offense..
No leanage
12. WOO PIG -9.5 BYU (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – WOO PIG -10
Vegas Implied Score – WOO PIG 30.25 BYU 20.75
Neither team has looked great on offense and Arkansas failed to crack 400Y of offense vs W Carolina and Kent St (!)…..Also note that star RB R Sanders is out…..BYU couldn’t do anything on offense vs Sam Houston in week 1 and got it going a little bit vs an FCS turd in week 2…..Feels like a SNOT BUBBLER.
Lean – Under 51
13. Michigan -40 Bowling Green (53)……….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -37.5
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 46.5 Bowling Green 6.5
The Wolverines continue their GAUNTLET of a schedule as they take on mighty Bowling Green….They’ve outscored the first two scrubs on the schedule 65-10 but failed to cover on each occasion…..Bowling Green has a bad roster but at least they’ve got a legit QB so it’s not impossible that they score a TD….Wolverines can cover if they put their mind to it but will they?…..Dog or pass at +40 or better but we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
14. Penn St -14.5 Illinois (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 31.5 Illinois 17
Penn St has looked good so far in their wins over WEST BY GOD VIRGINIA and Delaware but this is their first road game and their toughest test to date….They still haven’t got the ground game clicking to the max (4.9 YPC, longest rush 20Y) but their getting solid play from the defense and QB….WV had a bit of success running the ball and Illinois should have similar in that regard BUT note that this Illinois team is built differently than recent versions (defense down, not as physical in the run game) so we’re worried that this won’t be as difficult of a match-up for Penn St as it was in, for instance, 2021 when Illinois won 20-18 (!) in an impossible NINE OT in Happy Valley.
No leanage
15. LSU -9.5 Mississippi St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 31.5 Mississippi St 22
The Bulldogs didn’t look that good in their home win over Arizona last week as they were outgained by over 100Y but were the beneficiary of +4 in t/o margin….They squeaked that BAD BOY out in OT…..LSU lost to an excellent Florida St team in week one and smoked Grambling last week (50+ pt favs)…..The Tigers have looked fine on offense but the defense is last in the SEC in YPP allowed (it’s early, played the Noles) and they’ve only tallied one sack….Miss St has played well vs the run and they’ve got more balance on offense…..It didn’t look great vs Arizona tho……LSU 12-3 ATS L15 at Miss St….Tough call at this price point…..slightest of LEANAGES to the road fav but we haven’t gotten to the window yet.
No leanage
16. Fresno St -3 Arizona St (51)………………MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 27 Arizona St 24
Arizona St is a bit of a mystery right now as the defense looks better than expected but they’re having trouble SCORING the FOOTBALL…..Fresno St got a nice road win at Purdue in their opener but put in a stinker last week barely beating E Washington (W 34-31) as 34-point (!) favs….Sun Devils have USC on deck.
No leanage
17. Kansas -28 Nevada (59)………………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -24
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 43.5 Nevada 15.5
Kansas looked phenomenal on offense last week (262 rush 277 pass) against what was supposed to be a good Big Ten defense (Illinois) even considering they lost quite a bit of talent to the NFL…..The line looks a bit rich and that’s not a surprise as Nevada is PURE FILTH and there won’t be too many folks eager to back them….Especially off a blowout loss to an FCS school (Idaho), albeit a good one, last game.
No leanage
18. Ole Miss -20 Georgia Tech (63)………………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 41.5 Georgia Tech 21.5
The Rebels fell behind Tulane last week 17-7 and then outscored them the rest of the way 30-3 with the help of a late FAT GUY TOUCHDOWN in the final minute……The offense hasn’t been able to get the rushing attack going as they only picked up 143Y on the ground vs Mercer and 89 vs Tulane…..Georgia Tech has a soft underbelly vs the run so they better be able to do some work with the RBs this week or it’s gonna be a long year in the SEC for a team that we are very high on……Also note that Ole Miss is without arguably their best WR (Z Franklin, listed as Q) and their best receiving TE (C Preiskorn, out)…..The lack of a dominating run game so far and missing pieces in the THROW GAME have kept the offense from going bananas….The D has been pretty good and they’ll be tested by a GT offense that outgained LUA-VUH in week one (488Y, 175 rush, 313 pass) and scored 48 vs FCS scrub SC State in week 2…..There’s not a ton of perceived line value with the dog but note that Ole Miss is coming off a tough game vs Tulane and they have…..wait for it…..ROLL TIDE on deck followed by LSU….We think they’ll be happy with a win any way they can get it whilst getting as many key players healthy for the big game vs Alabama……Lane Kiffin is 6-8 ATS as home chalk with the Rebels….GT HC Brent Key is 4-1 ATS as a road dog and they covered on a neutral site vs LUA-VUH in week 1.
Official pick – Georgia Tech +20 -109 <sent Sept 12, 1:05pm)
19. Memphis -14.5 Navy (47.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -14
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 31 Navy 16.5
Navy has looked mediocre in each of their first two games and they lack explosiveness on offense….The defense can only hold up for so long…..Memphis has started very well but has played a pair of DUMPSTER FIRES (Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas St)….They’ve won the last two battles with Navy by margin (37-13, 35-17) and they should be able to do so again….It’s just really hard to back the fav knowing that Navy has been so good as double digit dogs over the years…..notwithstanding the week one blowout loss to the Irish.
No leanage
20. UTSA -8 Army (45)………………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -7.5 (QB questionable)
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 26.5 Army 18.5
Tough game to call as Army looked bad week one vs ULM but a lot better vs something known as Delaware St in week two….UTSA star QB F Harris is listed as Q for this one making it an impossible call as we approach press time…..Note that Army has a good history playing the Roadrunners….they lost 41-38 LY in OT at home…..beat them 28-16 on the road during the 2020 SCAMDEMIC season…..and they took them down at home 31-13 in 2019.
No leanage
21. Maryland -14.5 Virginia (48.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -14
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 31.5 Virginia 17
FEAR THE TURTLE got off to a slow start vs Charlotte last week (down 14-CACK) but managed to storm back and win by 18…..See the Week 2 in Review blog post for how that game ended……It’s not easy to trust them as DD favs vs a P5 team and the Cavs showed some life in the THROW GAME with true freshman QB Anthony Colandrea last week (20-26, 377, 2-1 TD to INT) in their tough one-point loss to James Madison last week……You’d like to think that he’ll get the nod again this Saturday even if the “starting QB” is healthy but there’s a reason why most publications have Virginia’s Tony Elliott ranked outside the top 100,000 football head coaches in the United States **.
** needs fact check but probably true
No leanage
22. Air Force -9.5 Utah St (46.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -10
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 28 Utah St 18.5
The Falcons gave MEGALOCKS subscribers a WATERBOARD SPECIAL last week as they held Sam Houston to 80 (!) total yards and less than TWO yards per play but failed to cover the 13.5 spread (W 13-3)…..That was in the TAIL of our statistical model in terms of WAYS TO GET BONED but that’s the way it goes sometimes…..They’ll be able to move the ball on Utah St but it should be noted that the Aggies have done nothing wrong…..They only lost by 10 at Iowa and then scored 78 (!) points vs Idaho St last week…..Also recall that Air Force has dropped two straight in the series….Still prefer the fav a wee bit but will pass for now.
No leanage
23. North Carolina -7 Minnesota (50)………………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 28.5 Minnesota 21.5
We’ll nibble on the road dog in this BAD BOY…..UNC off a 2 OT thriller vs App St and have ACC action on deck…..Star QB D Maye has struggled a bit without the appropriate THROW GAME weaponry (7.7 YPA, 2-2 TD to INT) but their ground attack has been excellent….Minnesota is stout defensively and they’ll be able to take advantage of the soft North Carolina defensive UNDERBELLY…..Gophers rushed for 296Y last week and will do their best to keep the Tar Heels’ offense off the field.
Lean – Minnesota +7 <note there are a few rogue 7.5s out there so shop around>
24. Tulane -13 Southern Miss (49)………………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -12
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 31 Southern Miss 18
We’ll take a breather from fading Tulane as they’ve looked good in both games so far vs quality competition…..Starting QB M Pratt should be good to go but you never know with Tulane…..Southern Miss upset Tulane LY (!) and handed the Green Wave one of their two losses (UCF)…..We’ve just been disappointed in the performance of the Golden Eagles so far….but maybe they wake up for the BATTLE FOR THE BELL??
No leanage
25. CORN -11 Northern Illinois (43)………………MEGALOCKS line – CORN -11
Vegas Implied Score – CORN 27 Northern Illinois 16
The Huskers barfed all over themselves again last week and are now (-6) in t/o margin after two games…..They outplayed Minnesota and probably should’ve beaten the Gophers…..and they followed that up with an excellent defensive first half vs the Buffs….then they understandably fell apart….So they’re played solid D and have 11 (!) sacks which is tied for the FBS lead….Win a bar bet with that trivia BOMB……Starting QB J Sims is listed as Q as we hit press time (is that a good thing?) but they don’t have anyone experienced behind him on the depth chart….The Huskies have a road win over BC on their resume but they lost to S Illinois last week…..Prefer the fav but was hoping to see a -9.5 and here we are……Note that HC T Hammock is 13-4 ATS with the Huskies as a road dog.
No leanage
26. Troy -3 James Madison (47.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Troy -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 25.25 James Madison 22.25
James Madison is in a tough situational spot after upsetting in-state Power 5 foe Virginia last week in dramatic fashion (W 36-35) but they’ve also had this BAD BOY circled on the schedule…..James Madison would’ve faced Troy in the Sun Belt title game LY (Troy beat C Carolina for all the marbles) and would love to show the Trojans who the “real” champs of the Sun Belt are…..Troy gets the game at home but we haven’t been impressed with what we’ve seen so far…..Also note that the way to beat the Dukes is thru the air (look what a true freshman did to them last week) but Troy is not built to play offense in that manner…..Troy should win the game but it’s not gonna be easy.
No leanage
27. Oklahoma St -7.5 South Alabama (47.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -8
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 27.5 South Alabama 20
Tough game to call….We’re high on the Jaguars and their loss to Tulane looks a bit better after seeing how well the Green Wave competed vs Ole Miss with their backup QB….The Pokes haven’t looked very impressive on offense but they’ve done enough to start 2-0 and the three QB system hasn’t been a disaster yet…..The D is also playing well so far…..We’ll watch and learn.
No leanage
28. Appalachian St -9.5 East Carolina (49.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 29.5 East Carolina 20
It’s tough to trust the ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates after scoring just 16 points in two games bu the defense is playing well, particularly vs the run…..App St is off a tough 2OT loss to UNC, but then again, they beat Texas A&M after losing to UNC LY……App St HC S Clark is just 6-12 (!) ATS as home chalk…..East Carolina HC Mike Houston is 12-4 ATS as a road dog which includes a cover at the Big House earlier this season.
No leanage
29. Oregon -38 Hawaii (68.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -35
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 53.25 Hawaii 15.25
Oregon is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense but we think Hawaii can cobble together a few points….Oregon just gave up 456 yards and 30 points to the Red Raiders and we don’t think they’ll be playing their starters deep into the game with Colorado on deck…..Hawaii scored 28 points on Vandy and put up almost 400Y…..24 on Stanford…..31 on Albany…..Oregon is a different animal but from watching Hawaii so far it’s evident that their THROW game is coming around under HC Timmy Chang and they aren’t afraid to take deep shots…..And they’ll try and score until the very end…..Risky but worth a small taste.
Lean – Hawaii team total over 15.25 (implied)
Note – you can find 14.5 at several shops, at worst 15. We’ll grade the TT as always with the implied TT (15.25)
30. UAB -2.5 Louisiana (59.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – UAB -1
Vegas Implied Score – UAB 31 Louisiana 28.5
Easy game to pass this week….Not sure how we missed this BAD BOY off the top….We are negative on both teams this season but at least UAB’s offense has looked decent……The Cajuns are the more trustworthy program given that your boy Trent Dilfer is leading the way for the Blazers.
No leanage
31. Wisconsin -19 Georgia Southern (65)………………MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -20
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 42 Georgia Southern 23
We liked the game a lot more before it got STEEEMED…..You know how it is…….sitting at -15…….go to the fridge to get a beverage and BOOM it’s blown past -17 into the -19 range…..Wisconsin hasn’t looked good enough for us to pounce here and G Southern can SCORE the FOOTBALL….Don’t forget that the Eagles took down CORN on their home field LY as 23 point dogs (W 45-42)….Line in a dead zone now gonna pass.
No leanage
32. Kansas St -5 Missouri (48)………………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 26.5 Kansas St 21.5
Our gut says to take the Wildcats who’ve been an ATS CASH COW under HC Chris Klieman (33-18, 65%) but we aren’t getting any line value according to our numbers and the intrepid Marc Lawrence reminds us that the Wildcats are 5-10 ATS L15 as favorites in road openers and just 2-5 ATS in road SEC games…Missouri still has a crafty QB, a star WR, and a decent defense but we’d want +7 to back the underdog and here we are.
No leanage
33. Notre Dame -34.5 Central Michigan (51.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -32
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 43 Central Michigan 8.5
The Irish have been destroying everything in their path and come into a bit of a tough situational spot after hammering NC St last week (W 45.24)…..They got the EPIC clash with Ohio St in South Bend next week so we don’t see a ton of incentive to roll full blast for four Q…..FIRE UP CHIPS have a mobile QB and half-decent D to go along with a HC that knows how to cover the spread…..Jim McElwain is 27-19 ATS with C Michigan including 9-5 as a road dog….They covered as yuuuuge dogs LY vs Oklahoma St and Penn St……They failed to get the money at Michigan St in week one this season.
Lean – Central Michigan +34.5
34. Wake Forest -14 Old Dominion (51)………………MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -14
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 32.5 Old Dominion 18.5
We’ve got this BAD BOY lined at market….Wake has done nothing wrong in wins over Elon and Vanderbilt and new starting QB M Griffis has been just fine (9.4 YPA, 5-1 TD to INT)…..Old Dominion was scrappy on the road in week one vs VTech and they pulled off an upset of the Cajuns last week at home (W 38-31)…..The defense is MEH but the offense is starting to find some rhythm….They had a 100-yard rusher last week and QB G Wilson threw 4 TD passes….Not sure the Monarchs have the MINERALS to pull off another yuuuge upset but maybe they can stick within the number?……Hard to say tho as Wake is much better than Louisiana.
No leanage
35. Louisville -10 Indiana (50.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -11
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 30.25 Indiana 20.25
We slightly prefer the fav in this spot but have to give credit to an Indiana defense that held Ohio St in check (23 points) and their offense showed a bit of life in a 41-7 drubbing of FCS turd Indiana St in game two….LUA-VUH can SCORE the FOOTBALL but we’re very skeptical of the defense…..Indiana will start Tayven Jackson at QB and he played well LW (18-21, 236)…..Note the game is at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
No leanage
36. Oklahoma -27.5 Tulsa (60)………………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -27
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 43.75 Tulsa 16.25
The Sooners showed off the offense in the week one 73-CACK incineration of Arkansas St in week one and then flashed some solid defense in week two when the held the potent SMU Mustangs to just 11 points…..It’s never easy to lay this many points in the road especially with Big 12 play on deck but we favor the Sooners IF starting QB B Braxton is still unavailable for Tulsa…Still haven’t gotten official word from our DEEP TULSA INSIDERS hiding out in the equipment shed.
No leanage
37. Iowa -28.5 Western Michigan (42.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -27.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 35.5 Western Michigan 7
Line getting a bit too much for our blood and implied score is right where we think it should be….something like 35-7 or 38-7….Iowa’s offense might be….wait for it…..<grabs puke bucket>…..worse than LY but the Broncos are absolute trash…..What to do what to do?
No leanage
38. Colorado -23 Colorado St (61)………………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -21
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 42 Colorado St 19
PRIME TIME……PRIME TIME……PRIME TIME……
The Buffs have looked fantastic so far in wins over TCU and CORN and now they get a drop in class to face an in-state Group of Five opponent….Colorado St was ripped apart by the Washington St THROW GAME (466Y) and we’re not sure how they’ll hold up vs QB S Sanders and company….Line looks a bit rich but it did last week too…..Rams going with a new starting QB and off a bye…..Colorado has Oregon on deck….Don’t think it gets to +24 but if it does we’ll ponder a play on the dog.
No leanage
39. UConn -7 FIU (40)………………MEGALOCKS line – UConn -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – UConn 23.5 FIU 16.5
The winds are going to be howling around on Saturday afternoon (30+ mph wind gusts) and we like the Huskies to find a way to win this one by a TD or more….They haven’t got the run game going yet but they played a pair of stingy run defenses and we like the change at QB to Ta’Quan Roberson who played well in relief last week (19/30, 216, 2-1 TD to INT) and recall he was penciled in as the starter last year but was OFY at the very beginning of the 2022 season…..The Panthers are 2-1 (!) after upsetting N Texas at home but they were outgained by La Tech 450-182 in week one and 378-305 vs Maine (!) in their week two 14-12 victory……FIU 2-18 L20 SU on the road, UConn a fiesty team at home.
Lean – UConn -7
40. TCU -7.5 Houston (64.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 36 Houston 28.5
The Horned Frogs have scored 40 in both games (1-1) and they put up 541 yards vs the Buffs in their week one loss (262 rush, 279 pass)…..They haven’t allowed a sack and should be able to do serious damage vs a weak Houston secondary…..The motivational angle sides with Houston as this will be their Big 12 home opener and they’ve got a talented QB…..Favor the fav….may come back to this BAD BOY but taking a seat for now.
No leanage
41. Oregon St -24.5 San Diego St (48.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 36.5 San Diego St 12
The line has gone nuts in favor of the Beavers and we haven’t seen this much STEAM since the final scene of POSITION IMPOSSIBLE……Oregon St has covered an impossible 14 in a row at home but we don’t see any value at this number.
No leanage
42. Louisiana Tech -4.5 North Texas (68.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 36.5 North Texas 32
Been looking at this game for too long considering we know that North Texas might have the worst defense of all-time…..BUT they can SCORE the FOOTBALL……We’ve been disappointed in La Tech so far and we’re not sure that QB H Bachmeier is gonna have the success that we envisioned during the offseason….Kinda interested in some kind of ‘over’ play for this game but passing for now may come back to it.
No leanage
43. Toledo -7 San Jose St (57)………………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 32 San Jose St 25
Tough spot for the Spartans making the trip to MACtion country and the last time they did this in 2021 they were buried by Western Michigan (L 23-3)….Toledo is the best team in the MAC but they’ve got conference play on deck (so does San Jose St) and they’ve disappointed ATS backers on many occasions as TD+ favs in the recent past…..Also note that San Jose St has the best QB in the Mountain West in C Cordeiro and it’s hard to make a fair assessment of their stats as they’ve played USC (!!), Oregon St (!) and an FCS turd…..PR says fav, gut says take a seat.
No leanage
44. Florida St -26.5 Boston College (48)………………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -24
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 37.25 Boston College 10.75
Lots of rain and wind (gusts up to 40mph) in the forecast and the mighty Seminoles have Clemson (!) up next…..It’s hard to imagine this being a freewheeling kinda game and you’ve gotta think that everyone invloved will wanna get this over with as soon as possible….QB T Castellanos gives the Eagles some annoying mobility to keep a few drives alive and their RB group is decent…..Small taste of the underdog here based on situation, PR, and weather.
Lean – Boston College +26.5
45. Rutgers -7 Virginia Tech (37)………………MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -5
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 22 Virginia Tech 15
Tempted to take the dog in this spot based on perceived line value but we’ve waited for clarity on the VT QB situation and starter Grant Wells is still listed as Q…..We knew #1 WR A Jennings was out but we’re also interested in the status of #2 WR J Lane….Rutgers has looked good so far and are a tough fade.
No leanage
46. Liberty -3 Buffalo (55)………………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 29 Buffalo 26
This has been a battle between two TOP SECRET BETTING GROUPS……The one led by the guy covered in scabs who makes his mathematical freakshow slaves work in a dungeon…..And the one that demands allegiance to HARRY POTTER and eating live scorpions for lunch…..yup, totally normal………Is it Liberty (smashed every time it hits -3?) or Buffalo (smashed every time it hits +3.5,+4)……Liberty has looked really good so far but they’ve played Bowling Green (needed major turnover help) and New Mexico St…..Buffalo lost to Fordham last week but they covered on the road vs Wisconsin…….Statistically thru two games there’s no reason to think Liberty isn’t the better team but again, it’s just two games…..It’s a conference sandwich spot for Liberty….Buffalo has another non-conference tilt on deck…..Yet another one we may come back to later today (Friday) and will advise…..Prefer the Flames but haven’t pulled the trigger.
No leanage
47. Eastern Michigan -7 Massachusetts (50)………………MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 28.5 Massachusetts 21.5
We’re lower than market on the Eagles and higher than market on the Minutemen but there isn’t much line value with Massachusetts….Not sure who is gonna start at QB for UMass but either PUMA (run/pass) or C Davis (pass) will work just fine in our opinion….Eagles need to get that offense going and Massachusetts could be just what they need.
No leanage
UPDATE – Lean over 50
48. Georgia -27.5 South Carolina (54.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -25.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 41 South Carolina 13.5
As the intrepid BRAD POWERS would say….Georgia has only beaten a pair of TOMATO CANS (UT Martin, Ball St) but they’ve looked like their dominant selves (93-10 combined score)……The pass rush and run game haven’t looked up to par yet but it’s only two games…..The defense overall has been SICK and now they take a step up in class to face the COCKS who took down Georgia on this field back in 2019 (2 OT)…..South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler has the THROW GAME working very well (83%, 698Y, 3-0 TD to INT) but they have ZERO ability to run the football and recall they allowed an impossible 9 sacks vs UNC….Georgia will be able to be balanced on offense and the only question becomes how sharp they are and how much improvement they make from week 2 to week 3…..Will wait around to see if a +28 pops up today as we think the COCKS can get to 10-14 points and note sure Georgia is ready to rip a good opponent a new one yet….Note that SC has covered seven in a row in Athens…..Stay tuned.
No leanage
49. Georgia St -7.5 Charlotte (51.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 29.5 Charlotte 22
Georgia St is off to a 2-0 start with wins over Rhode Island and UConn…..Their pass defense is an absolute travesty to college football but they’re very good as stopping the run and that spells trouble for a 49ers team that just gave up 243 yards on the ground the Maryland…..RB Marcus Carroll is #3 in the nation in rushing yards (291, 6.2, 6 TD) and dual-threat QB D Grainger is off to a great start (67%, 3-0 TD to INT, 193 rush)……We’ll grab the fav and take the hook down to -7.
Lean – Georgia St -7 -118
50. Cincinnati -14 Miami Ohio (45)………………MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 29.5 Miami Ohio 15.5
It’s one of the oldest rivalries in the nation as these squads started playing in 1888 (!)…..just 23 years after the CIVIL WAR ended….and back in the times where nobody believed men could get pregnant……..Tempted to roll with the dog but there doesn’t appear to be much “value” in the number and Cincinnati just might be a lot better than we thought heading into this season….They ripped E Kentucky apart in week one (W 66-13) and handled Pitt very easily on the road in week two (W 27-21, won yardage battle 371-262)…..Biggest worry for Cincy is the yuuuge game with Oklahoma on deck…..Note they’ve won 16 straight in the series.
No leanage
51. Vanderbilt -4.5 UNLV (58.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Vanderbilt -7
Vegas Implied Score – Vanderbilt 31.5 UNLV 27
Vanderbilt hasn’t looked great so far and they’ve got SEC play on deck…..Having said that….They’ve got a legit QB, a decent set of WRs, and two legit RBs…..UNLV has struggled so far and haven’t shown any identity on offense….Sure one game was at Michigan but they were even in the yardage battle vs Bryant in a game they won 44-14….Commodores want that bowl game and they won’t get there if they lose this BAD BOY…..UNLV 12-20 ATS as a home dog L10Y.
Lean – Vanderbilt -4.5
52 Syracuse -2.5 Purdue (57.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 30 Purdue 27.5
The Orange have looked fantastic so far winning their two games by a combined score of 113-7 (!) but according to Sagarin they’ve played the….wait for it……..#222 ranked schedule….Purdue battled hard with Fresno St and Va Tech (1-1) and get the Orange at home in a revenge spot…..Favor the home dog but would like a +3…..Worst case we’ll probably find BOILER UP in our weekly ML UNDERDOG list posted Friday afternoon.
No leanage
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.