Week 3 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week. Point spreads and totals are consensus lines at time of posting unless otherwise noted.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes (official picks in blue. leans in green.)
- New Mexico St at Wisconsin
- ULM at ROLL TIDE
- Louisiana Tech at Clemson
- UConn at Michigan
- Ohio at Iowa St
- Colorado at Minnesota
- Air Force at Wyoming (Friday)
- Cincinnati vs Miami Ohio
- Texas St at Baylor
- Ole Miss at Georgia Tech
- Florida St at Louisville (Friday)
- Rutgers at Temple
- Purdue at Syracuse
- Western Kentucky at Indiana
- South Alabama at UCLA
- Akron at Tennessee
- Charlotte at Georgia St
- UTEP at New Mexico
- Marshall at Bowling Green
- Toledo at Ohio St
- Georgia Southern at UAB
- North Texas at UNLV
- South Florida at Florida
- Nevada at Iowa
- Georgia at South Carolina
- SMU at Maryland
- Fresno St at USC
- Colorado St at Washington St
- Tulane at Kansas St
- San Diego St at Utah
- Oklahoma at Nebraska
- Buffalo at Coastal Carolina
- Old Dominion at Virginia
- Mississippi St at LSU
- Vanderbilt at Northern Illinois
- Liberty at Wake Forest
- Texas Tech at NC State
- Pitt at W Michigan
- UTSA at Texas
- Kansas at Houston
- Eastern Michigan at Arizona St
- BYU at Oregon
- Cal at Notre Dame
- UCF at Florida Atlantic
- Arkansas St at Memphis
- Troy at Appalachian St
- Louisiana at Rice
QUICK TAKES
1. Wisconsin -37.5 New Mexico St (46.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -38.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Wisconsin -42.8 **
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 42 New Mexico 4.5
WHOA NELLIE…..The Badgers fell at home to Washington St on Saturday as 17-point favs and whilst they won the yardage battle 401-253 they still look limited on offense….They actually had more passing yards than rushing yards in that one….Line looks high to us but New Mexico St has scored 25 points in three games and two of those games were vs turds….Badgers have massive game with Ohio St on deck.
** Based on a calibration, manipulation, and extrapolation of several reputable sets of college football power ratings
No leanage
2. ROLL TIDE -49 ULM (60.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -51
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – ROLL TIDE -53.8
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 54.75 ULM 5.75
The Tide escaped with their lives on Saturday and got everything they could handle from the Texas Longhorns (W 20-19)….This will NOT be a fun week of practice for ROLL TIDE and they’ll be a lot sharper but we don’t have any interest in laying a FITTY BURGER despite the fact that it’s a reasonable number to lay for those inclined to do so.
No leanage
3. Clemson -34 Louisiana Tech (54.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -37
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Clemson -37.4
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 44.25 Louisiana Tech 10.25
Line might be a wee bit short but note that Clemson didn’t manage to put up 400Y of offense in either game (Ga Tech, Furman) and they have a yuuuuge game with Wake Forest on deck…..La Tech is KOOKY enough on offense to score a TD or so if Clemson gets sloppy.
No leanage
4. Michigan -46.5 Connecticut (57.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -47
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Michigan -47.6
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 52 UConn 5.5
Michigan plays their last of three exhibition games this week before Big Ten play starts…..don’t sleep on the BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT that is YOUR Maryland Terrapins…..Line looks about right and while they can name the score we do respect UConn’s crafty HC J Mora who will make it his MISSION to cover this point spread…..but Coach Jim would also run over kittens with a snowmobile to cover a point spread ** …….Can’t play this gross game.
** fact check: probably true
No leanage
5. Iowa St -18 Ohio (49) …….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -18.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Iowa St -20.8
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 33.5 Ohio 15.5
We have the number right at the market price but the AWARD WINNING MMC has the fair number at about -21….The FIGHTING MATT CAMPBELLS are off a yuuuuuge win over Iowa and have Big 12 play on deck (Baylor) and Ohio might be a bit weary after getting worked by Penn St last week (L 46-10)….the MAC East is wide open so they might just wanna put in a bit of work and fold the tent.
No leanage
6. Minnesota -28 Colorado (47) …….MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -24.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Minnesota -21.6
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 37.5 Colorado 9.5
The Gophers took down the Buffs 30-CACK last year in Boulder and have allowed 10 total points in two games (NM St, W Illinois)….Colorado’s offense is completely disgusting but if you trust the AWARD WINNING MMC you may wanna sprinkle on the dog….We’ll pass tho…Massive HC mismatch and note that Buffs QB JT Shrout was an impossible 5/21 for 51 yards last week vs Air Force….Feels like a 24-30 point lead heading into the 4Q and then who knows?
No leanage
7. Air Force -17 Wyoming (48.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -15
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Air Force -14.6
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 32.75 Wyoming 15.75
WHOA NELLIE….Air Force is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE early in the season and are averaging an impossible 508 (!!!) yards per game on the ground….Sure they faced Northern Iowa and Colorado but they are in fine form right now…Wyoming slithered past Tulsa (2OT) and hammered N Colorado the last two weeks but this is a big step up in class….Recall that they allowed 260 yards on the ground in week 0 vs Illinois….Like the Falcons in this one but the line looks a bit high….Feels like the Pokes are gonna have trouble scoring BIGLY and the INTREPID Phil Steele reminds us that the under in this match-up is 11-4 to the under L15….Weather looks a bit sketchy as we approach press time but neither team throws the ball that much.
Lean – under 48.5
8. Cincinnati -22 Miami Ohio (51) …….MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -17.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Cincinnati -21.3
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 36.5 Miami Ohio 14.5
The Bearcats played well in their opening week loss at Arkansas and blew a ton of chances in WOO PIG territory….They destroyed something known as Kennesaw St last week (W 63-10)….They’ve owned this “rivalry” series with Miami Ohio over the last number of years and note that the Redhawks are rolling with their back-up QB….We’re a bit lighter than market on the number but the MMC has it at -21.3…..note the location is Paul Brown Stadium.
No leanage
9. Baylor -30.5 Texas St (52.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -30
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Baylor -32.1
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 41.5 Texas St 11
Pretty easy game for us to pass upon…..Baylor coming off a tough OT loss at BYU and they have a yuuuuge road date with Iowa St on deck….The good news is that they should be able to win by as many points as they want….HC Dave Aranda was 5-2 ATS as home chalk LY…..Texas St HC Jake Spavital 7-10 ATS as a road dog with the BOBS.
No leanage
10. Ole Miss -16 Georgia Tech (64) …….MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -16.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Ole Miss -14.6
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 40 Georgia Tech 24
Ole Miss has outscored their first two opponents by a combined score of 87-13 and that’s whilst searching for a permanent option at QB….Expect to see both Altmyer and Dart on Saturday….We don’t have a great read on GT yet as we know they are BAD but HOW BAD are they?….They held Clemson to under 400Y in game one and took down FCS turd W Carolina last week…HC Geoff Collins is 11-23-1 ATS with the Jackets (32%) (!) ….Line looks spot on to us….Good chance it goes to -17 by kick in our opinion so if you like the fav bag it now.
No leanage
11. Florida St -2.5 Louisville (56.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -1
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Florida St -2.1
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 29.5 Louisville 27
We may come back to this one a bit later in the week but right now it looks like a pass on the PRE-FLOP wagering menu and a prime contender for SWEET IN-GAME ACTION….Line looks spot on to our DEEP ACC INSIDERS and although the Noles appear to be the better team it must be noted that they are just 2-7 in true road games under HC Norvell….This is his best team but LUA-VUH is a tough place to win when QB M Cunningham gets rolling….Feels like a back-and-forth affair with two exciting mobile QBs…….LUA-VUH locked UCF down after the Knights had a bit of a hot start….Florida St has had a bit of extra rest but not sure that means anything….Last team with the ball wins?
No leanage
12. Rutgers -18 Temple (43) …….MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -18
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Rutgers -17.4
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 30.5 Temple 12.5
It’s not often you see Rutgers laying 18 points on the road but here we are….They CHOPPED WOOD and took down BC on the road in game one and destroyed FCS turd Wagner 66-7 in week two…Temple is an FBS bottom feeder but they got on the board last week with their own victory over an FCS team….They took care of Lafayette 30-14….We were hoping to see a line around -14 but that was obviously a pipe dream…..Line looks about right….Gotta be fav or pass, and we’ll pass for now.
No leanage
13. Purdue -1 Syracuse (58) …….MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -1.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Syracuse -0.3
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 29.5 Syracuse 28.5
We lean with the home team in what should be a fun and competitive game….Purdue lost a heartbreaker to Penn St in their opener and smoked something known as Indiana St (W 50-CACK) in game #2….QB Aidan O’Connell is fantastic but it’s gonna be tough to be one-dimensional in one of the most underrated home venues (when they’re playing well…and they are)…..The Orange manhandled LUA-VUH 31-7 in the dome in their opener and this will be Purdue’s first road test…Syracuse is looking REALLY good on offense and QB G Shrader is one of the highest-rated QBs in the nation as we approach press time….We also trust their D more than what the Boilers bring to the table…..GET CHO POPCONE….should be a great game.
Lean – Syracuse +1
Official play: Syracuse ML -120 <sent 5:41pm Sept 16>
14. Indiana -6.5 Western Kentucky (61.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -7
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Indiana -4.0
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 34 Western Kentucky 27.5
Our number comes in quite a bit higher than market on this BAD BOY but we’ll sprinkle on a 2-0 Hoosiers team that hasn’t looked great but they should be able to have a balanced and successful attack on Saturday behind the arm of QB C Bazelak and RB S Shivers….The Toppers struggled with Austin Peay in week one and blew out Hawaii in week two…Their offense is down multiple notches, they’re +7 in t/o margin which isn’t sustainable, and Indiana HC Tom Allen is 12-2 ATS in the role of home fav.
Lean – Indiana -6.5
15. UCLA -15.5 South Alabama (59.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -18
MEGALOCKS Market Co555mposite – UCLA -20.3
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 37.5 South Alabama 22
Will roll for small taters on the home fav….both teams have looked great against week competition so far but the Jags probably have the most impressive win….they crushed FIRE UP CHIPS on the road last week….It’s a long trip out to the west coast and last week was just the 2nd road win under the relatively new Kane Wommack regime….We like what they have going but will trust the “numbers” that suggest the line is a bit short….UCLA not a great home fav under Chip Kelly but they got it done in week one vs BG and note that they tried to score for the entire game…they’ve been working on getting back-up QB E Garbers quality reps and he’s shown some promise….hopefully we don’t need it but this game is primed for some quality FRONT DOOR ACTION late.
Lean – UCLA -15.5
16. Tennessee -47.5 Akron (67.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -48
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Tennessee -43.1
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 57.5 Akron 10
Not a game we’re interested in…..The Vols can name the score but note that they’ve got the yuuuge and massive game with Florida next week….Anyone that’s tempted to take the we’d wait to see if QB DJ Irons is a go (doubt it, but waiting confirmation) because you do NOT want to have your money on THE UNDERCUFFLER….limited back-up QB.
No leanage
17. Georgia St -19 Charlotte (61) …….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -17.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Georgia St -20.2
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 40 Charlotte 21
Tough game to call…Georgia St is desperate for a win after losing to a pair of Power 5 teams (SC, NC) but they looked good….Charlotte is a dumpster fire right now but they may get starting QB C Reynolds back….Their defense has been atrocious which makes them an impossible team to back at this point….Line looks about right but this certainly has the look of a blowout if the Panthers get off to a hot start.
No leanage
18. UTEP -3 New Mexico (39) …….MEGALOCKS line – UTEP -3.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UTEP -2.1
Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 21 New Mexico 18
Very tempted to go with MINER NATION but we were shocked and dismayed with the MEGALOCKS SUPERCOMPUTER told us that, ya, the line looks right…..UTEP has been a disappointment so far after having such a fun 2021 campaign…They were blown out twice to start the season and managed to slither past New Mexico St last week as 17-point favs (W 20-13)…..The Lobos offense is PURE FILTH but they have a good defense and one of the best DCs in college football…..still lean a bit to the road team but the Miners are on a 5-31 SU run ON THE HIGHWAY.
No leanage
19. Marshall -16.5 Bowling Green (51.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Marshall -13.8
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 34 Bowling Green 17.5
Marshall rolls into town off a yuuuge upset at Notre Dame and have clearly stamped themselves as a Group of Five BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT…..This is a tricky spot as they travel to a scrappy Falcons nest and note that the Herd have their conference opener on deck (Troy)…..Bowling Green lost a 7-OT (!) thriller to E Kentucky last week and should be itching to get back on the field….Line looks a bit high to us so we’ll sprinkle on the home dog.
Lean – Bowling Green +17 -115 (relatively cheap +17s to buy are out there; line might hit legit +17 by kick tho; Godspeed)
20. Ohio St -32 Toledo (61) …….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -29.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Ohio St -31.7
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 46.5 Toledo 14.5
Tempted to go with the road dog in this one but the line looks reasonable and Toledo HC Jason Candle is 4-9 in that point spread role….Ohio St has a much better D this season and that makes us skeptical that Toledo can get some SWEET BACK DOOR action working in the 4th Q….Note that Ohio St has Wisconsin on deck.
No leanage
21. UAB -11.5 Georgia Southern (55.5)………MEGALOCKS line – UAB -13.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UAB -13.9
Vegas Implied Score – UAB 33.5 Georgia Southern 22
The Eagles dealt a Scott Frost DEATH BLOW last week when they took down CORN on the road on Lincoln (W 45-42)….They put up over 600Y of offense but their D is still a yuuuuge Q mark…UAB lost to a backup QB (Liberty) and it’s unclear how trustworthy they are now that ace HC Bill Clark has flown the coop….Better bet is that points will be scored, yo.
Lean – over 55.5
22. UNLV -3 North Texas (63)……..MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -1
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UNLV -0.8
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 33 North Texas 30
Gotta roll with the road dog that can do serious work on the ground…163,202,348 so far and recall that they averaged a whopping 233 YPG with the rushing attack LY….They don’t throw the ball often…but when they do….they prefer Dos Equis….oh wait….they prefer to hit big plays….NT ended LY on a five-game win streak before losing in their bowl game….They’re 2-1 so far and need this one to keep a legitimate quest for a bowl bid alive….UNLV is certainly not accustomed to the role of home fav and while they had a shot to beat Cal last week note that it was 14-CACK before the Golden Bears decided to point shave….just kidding….not really….UNLV will get their points but bagging three points seems like a good deal.
Official play – North Texas +3 -108 <sent 6:35pm Sept 14>
23. Florida -24.5 South Florida (60.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Florida -21.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Florida -21.9
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 42.5 South Florida 18
The Gators fell back down to Earth last week after taking down Utah in dramatic fashion….the pesky Kentucky Wildcats handed them a 26-16 loss and Florida didn’t even manage to hit the 300Y mark on offense….They’ve also got a yuuuuge game with Tennessee on deck and you gotta think that they wanna just get thru this game with a “W” and move on….They’re still limited on offense and the D will be without senior LB V Miller….South Florida gave MEGALOCKS subscribers a 900 STAR DEATH BOOSTER SURPRISE SUDDEN DEATH LOCK loser in week one when they were killed by BYU but we still think they are better than advertised and have enough weapons on offense and on special teams to cobble enough points together to bag a cover….Bigger game for USF in the grand scheme of things and they should give us a full 60 min….Line “value” suggests that the dog is the right side but who the hell knows.
Official play – South Florida +24.5 -105 <sent 7:27pm Sept 14>
24. Iowa -23 Nevada (39)…….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -25
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Iowa -24.8
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 31 Nevada 8
Iowa has set a new bar for offensive ineptitude…..They managed 7 points and 166 yards in a 7-3 win over South Dakota St and followed that up with 7 points and 150 yards in their 10-7 loss to Iowa St….If they were EVER gonna get going this is the spot to do it…Nevada is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West and they just gave up 55 points to something known as Incarnate Word….They were helped by a +9 t/o margin in their first two games but we know that Iowa is almost certainly gonna win the t/o battle this week and their defense is still elite….team total under is tempting but we’ll call for Iowa to use all three phases of the game to slither away with a cover.
Lean – Iowa -23
25. Georgia -24.5 South Carolina (54.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -21.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Georgia -20.9
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 39.5 South Carolina 15
The line looks a bit high but it’s hard to go against a team that CREMATED Oregon (W 49-3) and shutout Samford (30-CACK) in their first two games….The rushing attack hasn’t got untracked but the THROW GAME has been devastating…..That’s bad news for a South Cackalacky team that lost a pair of defensive starters…..Spencer Rattler is a talented QB but they haven’t been able to run a lick and Georgia owns a yuuuge edge in the trenches.
Lean – SC team total under 15 (implied; wouldn’t play lower than 14.5)
26. Maryland -2.5 SMU (73.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Maryland -4.8
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 38 SMU 35.5
Recent MOB STEAM has brought the number down below the key number of “3” so let’s hope these are the same sharps that blew millions on Stanford last week….Our number show “value” on the home fav as does the award-winning MMC (-4.8)…..Both teams have elite THROW GAMES and it’s debatable at this stage of the season which team has the better stop unit….The Terps have a yuuuge game with Michigan on deck whilst the Mustangs will take on their former HC in a duel with TCU.
Lean – Maryland -2.5
27. USC -12.5 Fresno St (73.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – USC -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – USC -13.7
Vegas Implied Score – USC 43 Fresno St 30.5
GET CHO POPCONE!….USC has moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE so far scoring 107 points in two games vs Rice and Stanford….The +8 t/o margin in unsustainable but there’s no doubting the skill they have at QB, RB, and WR……We’re very skeptical of the defense and Fresno QB Jake Haener is a star that is more than capable of putting a team on his back…..Fresno took down UCLA on the road LY in a 890 STAR MEGALOCKS SAFE AND EFFECTIVE STEAM LOCK winner…..We haven’t been thrilled with the Bulldogs OL or ability to hit big chunk plays and going head-to-head with the Trojans TRADING PAINT may not work out well in the end…..Tough call at this price but feels like dog or pass……may come back to this one.
No leanage
28. Washington St -16.5 Colorado St (53.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -16.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Washington St -15.2
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 35 Colorado St 18.5
Tough call in this one….impossible to back the Rams after they’ve been destroyed in back-to-back weeks and it’s not like there’s “value” to be had….Wash St a tough squad to back after they SHOCKED the WORLD last week with a road win at Wisconsin and note that they have a massive game with Oregon up next.
No leanage
29. Kansas St -14 Tulane (48)…….MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -14
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Kansas St -14.3
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 31 Tulane 17
Both of these teams are on our “play on” list for the time being and that makes this a tough call….Kansas St looks really good and are a legit SURPRISE PACKAGE to get to the Big 12 title game….Tulane had an usually tough season LY and are a much-improved team on paper….and recall that they almost took down the Sooners on the road LY.
No leanage
30. Utah -21 San Diego St (49)…….MEGALOCKS line – Utah -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Utah -22.8
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 35 San Diego St 14
This line shocked us when it first came out but then we ran the numbers thru our patented SUPERCOMPUTER COMPLEX and found out that…..gasp….yup….the Aztecs just might be mediocre…..It’s still a tall order to cover this kinda number vs a run-heavy team that plays solid D so we’ll take a pass.
No leanage
31. Oklahoma -11 Nebraska (66)…….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -12.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Oklahoma -11.7
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 38.5 Nebraska 27.5
The Scott Frost REGIME has breathed it’s last breath…..That’s good news for a CORN program that most certainly needs a fresh start….The offense has looked fine (#35 FBS rush, #33 pass) but the defense has looked disgusting getting ripped up by Northwestern and Ga Southern…..Oklahoma has looked better on D but just ok on offense so far in wins over UTEP and Kent St….Corn gave them a battle LY (L23-16)….Best case we give them a good shot to come out strong but doubt their D can hold up for 60 min.
Lean – CORN +7 -115 first half
32. Coastal Carolina -14 Buffalo (59)…….MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -15
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Coastal Carolina -15.6
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 36.5 Buffalo 22.5
The CHANTS looked good in week one when they disposed of Army (437-344 yd edge) but looked awful last week when they scraped by a hideous Gardner-Webb squad (L 31-27)….Buffalo gave them a good game LY at home (L 28-25) but now have to travel to the SURF by the TURF….They’re coming off a HAIL MARY loss to Holy Cross and a blowout defeat at the hands of Maryland….Concerns about both teams as we hit press time….Note that CC has a yuuuge match-up with Georgia St next week……Number looks about right.
No leanage
33. Virginia -9 Old Dominion (53)…….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -10
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Virginia -11.4
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 31 Old Dominion 22
Tough to back the Cavs in this spot as they’re coming off a horrible performance on the road vs Illinois in which they failed to score a TD (L 24-3)….Ace QB Brennan Armstrong can only do so much….Old Dominion SHOCKED the WORLD by beating the Hokies in week one but fell back down to earth losing to the ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRR MATEY…..East Carolina Pirates….Line might be bit short but we’ll nibble on the road dog playing a Power 5 team from the GREAT STATE of VIRGINIA…..The Monarchs will be pumped, Virginia has their ACC opener with the Orange next week.
Lean – ODU +9
34. Misssissippi St -2.5 LSU (53.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -1.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – LSU -0.4
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 28 LSU 25.5
This should be a lot of fun!….You know we love us some Miss St Bulldogs and haven’t changed our view that they are the most likely team (still a major longshot) to win the SEC West….They have an incredibly efficient THROW GAME that moves the chains and eats the clock…..all whilst keeping their defense fresh…..LSU is still a collection of DOODS and not a cohesive TEAM yet and think they’ll be better later in the year…..Miss St won their last visit here by ten points.
Lean – Miss St -2.5
35. Northern Illinois -2.5 Vanderbilt (59.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -1
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Northern Illinois -3.2
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 31 Vanderbilt 28.5
This looks like a contest that’ll be tight down to the wire….Vanderbilt fell back down to Earth last week after winning their first two games but they get a MAC team in game #4 and have a pair of decent options at QB including highly-touted true freshman AJ Swann…..The Huskies can move the ball but their defense still leaves a lot to be desired…..They were the KINGS of pulling out close shaves LY…..toss-up but wouldn’t be surprised if the Commodores gave SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB members an early holiday gift.
No leanage
36. Wake Forest -16.5 Liberty (63.5)………MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -16
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Wake Forest -17.1
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 40 Liberty 23.5
Don’t look now but QB Sam Hartman is back for the DEACS and ready to terrorize ACC stop units….First they’ll have to deal with a scrappy Liberty bunch that just pulled an upset win over UAB….Tough game to call as Liberty HC Hugh Freeze is one of the more reliable doods for DEGENERATE NATION (24-15 ATS – 62% with the Flames) but WF is playing at their peak right now…..line looks about right.
No leanage
37. NC State -10.5 Texas Tech (55.5)………MEGALOCKS line – NC State -12
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – NC State -12.9
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 33 Texas Tech 22.5
Tricky game…..NC State didn’t exactly WOW us in their close (lucky?) win over East Carolina in their opener (W 21-20) and only managed to rush for 133Y whilst showing an inability at times to impose their will on the ARRRRRRRRRRRR LET ME FIRE ME CANNON……East Carolina Pirates…..Texas Tech won an OT thriller vs Houston….a game in which they led 17-3….then looked sure to lose…..They also have a yuuuuuge game with Texas on deck so this is a tough situational spot.
No leanage
38. Pitt -11 Western Michigan (48)………MEGALOCKS line – Pitt -14
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Pitt -15.8
Vegas Implied Score – Pitt 29.5 Western Michigan 18.5
It’s still unclear who will start at QB for the Panthers but the line is telling us that it’s almost certainly not going to be #1 K Slovis….Going with a 2nd or 3rd string QB isn’t a great deal but the overall roster talent should be able to overwhelm a W Michigan squad that appears to be an “average” MAC outfit….Also recall that the Broncos SHOCKED the WORLD and beat the Panthers in Pitt LY…..theoretical excellent revenge spot for Pitt….HC Narduzzi 11-3 ATS as road chalk.
Lean – Pitt -11
39. Texas -12.5 UTSA (59.5)……MEGALOCKS line – Texas -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Texas -14.2
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 36 UTSA 23.5
WHOA NELLIE…..The Longhorns came THIS close to taking down ROLL TIDE and they just might have done it if not for the injury to their talented starting QB…..Back-up Hudson Card was banged up and played pretty well and he’ll get the call in this one…..Hard to not see a letdown for Texas and they’ve got Big 12 play on deck….UTSA is a scrappy bunch that’s already played a pair of OT games….They’re scrappy enough to hang around but we don’t see a ton of value in the number.
No leanage
40. Houston -9 Kansas (58)………MEGALOCKS line – Houston -9.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Houston -11.6
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 33.5 Kansas 24.5
ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK, buh buh…..The line is just a wee bit too low for us to do anything serious with this game but note that it’s been a long time since Kansas has played a bad game dating back to game nine of 2021….Houston hasn’t impressed us so far and they’ve had a pair of OT games already and it’s hard to see them getting too fired up for this one….Kansas has to take this as a “must win” game if they want any realistic hope of making it to a bowl game which was their goal prior to the season…..at worst we get another good effort from ROCK CHALK and have to hope it’s good enough……SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB has the champagne on ice……
No leanage
41. Arizona St -20.5 Eastern Michigan (57)………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -20
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Arizona St -19.6
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 38.75 Eastern Michigan 18.25
It was one of the strangest blowouts of the year…..The Eagles were up 14-CACK at halftime at the Cajuns and seemed to be in great shape until the greatest plot twist since the food truck scene in LUNCH WAGON WOMEN……The Cajuns ripped them for 49 points in the 2nd half and won 49-21….EM was (-5) in t/o….Chris Creighton still has a great overall mark as a road dog even after last week but the D has been bad and we’re not sold on new QB T Powell….and they still can’t run….line looks about right….no way we can lay 20+ with the Sun Devils.
No leanage
42. Oregon -3.5 BYU (58)………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -2.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Oregon -3.6
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 30.75 BYU 27.25
The question of the day is….how good is Oregon?….They were plastered by Georgia 49-3 and then drubbed FCS foe E Washington 70-14 in game #2….We’re probably a bit lower than market on the Ducks and now they face a BYU team that’s tough and CHOCK FULL of talented veterans….It’s a tough ask to guy out a physical OT win over Baylor and travel to Eugene where Oregon has won an impossible 20 (!) games in a row…..Mixed signals.
No leanage
43. Notre Dame -11 California (41)………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -13.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Notre Dame -14.9
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 26 California 15
The greatest HC hire of all-time is now 0-3 with the Irish but this could be the spot where glory is achieved….They’ll roll with back-up QB D Pine who’s SPUNKY but not uber-talented….and we still don’t know about the quality of the weaponry at WR/RB….We still like the D even after Marshall gave it to them last week….Cal’s OL is weak and they don’t have anything in the THROW GAME that should give ND much trouble…..Line looks short according to the numbers but it’s impossible to ignore that Cal HC Justin Wilcox delivers for bettors in the role of road dog…..14-4 ATS to be exact.
No leanage
44. UCF -8 Florida Atlantic (61.5)………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -9.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UCF -9.9
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 34.75 Florida Atlantic 26.75
The Knights got off to a good start vs LUA-VUH last week but the offense went KAPPUT once the Cards figured out that they should try and make UCF beat them thru the air..UCF Q John Rhys Plumlee is still the fastest man alive ** but the WR corps is dealing with multiple injuries as we hit press time…..we do like their stop unit tho….FAU looks like one of the better teams in C-USA and we expect them to have some success on offense but we’re not sure about the defense.
** fact check: can’t say he isn’t, yo
No leanage
45. Memphis -14.5 Arkansas St (64.5)………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -14
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Memphis -14.8
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 39.5 Arkansas St 25
This clearly appears to be a TRADING PAINT special….Both teams have excellent THROW GAMES and as an added bonus……Arkansas St’s D is horrible, particularly vs the pass….Memphis QB S Henigan just threw for 400+ vs Navy….game total looks ok but we prefer to go with the Tigers to SCORE the FOOTBALL.
Lean – Memphis TT over 39.5 (implied) (38.5s are out there)
46. Appalachian St -12.5 Troy (52.5)………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -14
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Appalachian St -13.9
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 32.5 Troy 20
This might be the worst situation spot of all-time ** as the Mountaineers played a crazy 63-61 game with UNC (L) and followed that up with a yuuuuge upset win at Texas A&M…..They also get to host GAMEDAY this week and that is often a distraction…..Troy is sitting in the weeds waiting for the Mountaineers and they’ve got a talented and veteran team…..We’ll nibble on the underdog but can’t go BIGLY due to Troy’s gross rushing attack and the fact that App St has a great recent series history 45-7 LY….47-10 2YA….etc….
** fact check: can’t disagree
Lean – Troy +12.5
47. Lousiana -11 Rice (51)………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Louisiana -13.3
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 31 Rice 20
The Cajuns roll into town off a 49-21 win over E Michigan but we still aren’t totally sure how good they are this year given so much roster turnover and a new HC…..Rice is a near-impossible team to back but they did move the ball at times vs USC and put up 52 vs McNeese last week….Also note that Louisiana was +5 in t/o in their blowout win over the Eagles and they’ve got a Sun Belt rivalry game on deck (ULM).
No leanage
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.