Week 3 – Tennessee at Florida

Tennessee at Florida

posted Sept 14

updated Sept 15

The Game

Yes, guy.

We’ve got a sweet SEC East match-up as Tennessee travels to the Swamp to battle the Gators. Tennessee rolls into town with a mark of 2-0 after plastering Virginia and scraping by Austin Peay last week. Florida outgained the mighty Utah Utes in SACK LAKE CITY in week one but still found a way to lose by 13 points to Utah’s backup QB. They had a tune-up win last Saturday vs McNeese and hope to build on that momentum vs the Vols.

Let’s gooooooo!

The Details

Tennessee -6.5 Florida (58.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Tennessee -5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tennessee 32.5 Florida 26

Tennessee offense vs Florida defense

It’s hard to feel too bad about the Tennessee offense as they’ve put up 200Y rushing and 200Y passing in each of their first two games but it’s clear they’re taking a yuuuge step up in class. QB Joe Milton isn’t close to the running threat that Hendon Hooker was LY and he’s only averaging 6.8 YPA (Hooker 9.5 LY, Milton 11.8). It’s clear that the explosiveness isn’t there yet in the THROW GAME but they’ve got a fantastic 1-2 combo at RB in Jaylen Wright (233, 9.3) and Jabari Small (162, 6.2). They’ve gotta get those men going but the Gators have been good vs the run so far (105Y vs Utah, 46 vs McNeese). Florida will give up some yards on the ground to be sure but the key to staying within one score will be the ability to limit the explosive deep passes. The Vols are only averaging 10.0 YPC (14.6 LY) but given that Milton has a LASER ROCKET ARM it’s clear that they’ll give it a shot against the Florida secondary.

Florida offense vs Tennessee defense

Florida has to have big performances from their three star skill position doods if they wanna stick around in this game. RBs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne (combined 16 rush TD LY) have to do a much better job (along with the OL) than they did against Utah but note that after last week both men are averaging over 6 YPC. WR Ricky Pearsall is a legit #1 option but they’ve gotta find a way to get others involved in the THROW GAME. QB Graham Mertz didn’t look bad vs Utah (300+ passing yards) but note that Utah had 5 sacks and Tennessee leads the nation in sacks (11). The Gators rushed for 141 yards LY vs Tennessee but it took over 40 carries. The good news is that they threw for over 400Y vs Tennessee in last season’s contest in what was one of Anthony Richardson’s only decent games thru the air all year (only other 300+ game was vs Vanderbilt). Tennessee appears a bit better on defense but it’s tough to make solid conclusions given the competition they’ve faced so far.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Florida has won 16 of the last 18 meetings between these two squads and are on a 14-5 ATS run……The last time Tennessee won in the SWAMP was back in 2003…..The weather forecast looks perfect as we approach press time….HC Billy Napier is 17-8 ATS as an underdog….Tennessee HC Josh Heupel is 10-9 ATS as the fav in true road games over his career including 3-1 in that role with the Volunteers.


Both teams have phenomenal RBs and Tennessee hasn’t shown the explosiveness thru the air that they did in 2022. We’ll take a taste of the under.

Note – we prefer the Florida side ATS. Will have an update on Friday.


Lean – Under 58.5

(will advise on Friday re: potential Florida play)

UPDATE – official pick Florida +6 -110 <sent Sept 15 2:42pm>


‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.