Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 4 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Let’s go!
Boxscore review:
AAC
Tennessee 45 UTSA 14 – 512-319 yd edge, UTSA played with 2nd and 3rd string QBs
TCU 34 SMU 17 – 457-416 yd edge, pretty even game, SMU (-2) in t/o
Missouri 34 Memphis 27 – MISSOORAH took at 14-10 lead in 2Q and led the rest of the way, Memphis gets some SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION with a TD late to get +7 backers a push…..Both QBs over 300Y, 541-399 yd edge for Missouri
Illinois 23 Florida Atlantic 17 – Scrappy effort by HOOT HOOT with backup QB D Richardson……got up 10-CACK but Illinois came back with 23 consecutive points…..510-353 yd edge for Illinois
Miami 41 Temple 7 – 543-279 yd edge for YOUR Hurricanes, 323 rush and 220 pass in less than ideal weather
South Florida 42 Rice 29 – 597-492 yd edge for Bulls……QB Byrum Brown 435 pass and 82 rush, Rice QB JT Daniels had well over 400Y passing as well
Georgia 49 UAB 21 – decent 1st half for UAB then obviously couldn’t stay with the Dawgs but it was an easy cover……582-336 yd edge for Georgia, 188 rush 394 pass, run game still not up to their standards but QB Carson Back was excellent
Florida 22 Charlotte 7 – vanilla performance for Gators but they didn’t need to do any more, 395-211 yd edge for CHOMP CHOMP, just 136 rush yards and 36 carries (3.8), QB Mertz 20/12 259, 1-0 TD to INT
Tulsa 22 Northern Illinois 14 – Huskies led 14-12 after 3Q but Golden Hurricane put up 10 points in 4Q to steal the win….295-281 yd edge for NIU, each team with 3 t/o
ACC
NC State 24 Virginia 21 – Painful loss and a game Virginia could have easily won…..384-319 yd edge lots of mistakes….end of the game had to be seen to be believed……The Virginia SIMPLE JACKS with three critical 15-yard penalties at the end of game…..down 8…..21-13…..TD!!….21-19….HEAD BUTT penalty after the play – gotta try the 2-pt conversion to tie from the 18 yard line…..WHOA!….They get it….SIMPLE JACK QB takes his helmet off and strikes a pose like your pal Madonna…..15-yard penalty…..NC State ends up with the ball around midfield…..Set up for GW FG…..It’s blocked! OT here we come….Oh wait…..15 yard penalty for LEAPING **…..Another FG try….It’s good…..NC State wins….game over….start the cars….see you next week!
** not making this up
Florida St 31 Clemson 24 (OT) – WHOA NELLIE, very entertaining game, Noles get it done in OT, Def TD with Clemson driving turned the game around and Clemson SIMPLE JACK coaching coast them dearly in 4Q and OT…..Major misleading final by the stats……429-311 yd edge for Tigers but they peed down their leg once again…..Noles held to 22 net rush yards
North Carolina 41 Pittsburgh 24 – 373-307 yd edge for Tar Heels and +3 in t/o….Big 21 point 2Q for UNC
Louisville 56 Boston College 28 – not much in tank left for BC apparently after tough loss to Florida St…..42-14 at the half….582-427 yd edge for LUA-VUH….QB J Plummer 388Y and 5 TD
Duke 41 UConn 7 – Blue Devils with 322-203 yd edge and +2 in t/o….Impressive win but it wasn’t as much of a slaughter as the final score indicates….led 27-CACK at half
Georgia Tech 30 Wake Forest 16 – even game in the stats…..WF 386-380 yd edge but GT forced 5 turnovers (+4 overall)….GT allowed 224 rush yds
Syracuse 29 Army 16 – Black Knights led 10-3 at half and held ball for 23 min in first half but it was all ORANGE in the 2nd half…..NASTY WATERBOARD ACTION for Syracuse -13 backers and even more so for those who laid -13.5/-14……29-10 Syracuse 2 min left ball on their own 20…..run a few plays and get outta there…..Wait, what’s this?……80 yard BOMB…….TD pass from ARMY…..29-16…..missed 2 pt that would have killed all fav backers…..Syracuse got close to scoring late TD but knelt down
Marshall 24 Virginia Tech 17 – another game with backup QB for Hokies not working out…….380-343 yd edge for Herd…..RB R Ali 27-174 2 TD
Big 12
Texas 38 Baylor 6 – 503-365 yd edge for Horns, 28-6 at half, never in doubt, Texas 5 sacks and held Bears to 60 net rush yards
Oklahoma 20 Cincinnati 6 – pretty even game in the yardage dept……425-376 yd edge for Sooners……Defense looks way better than LY’s version, take note
Kansas St 44 UCF 31 – Cats trailed 10-7 after first Q and then just grinded for the next 3Q and got up by 20 at one point…..536-407 yd edge for K St, QB W Howard looked pretty good after getting banged up last week….255 pass, 64 rush….RB DJ Giddens 30-207, 4 TD
West Virginia 20 Texas Tech 13 – another fine game from WEST BY GOD VIRGINIA’s defense…..321-256 yd edge for Red Raiders and were +2 in t/o margin…..2/18 on 3rd down was a killer
Iowa St 34 Oklahoma St 27 – both offenses finally wake up…..422-409 yd edge for CLONES and were beneficiary of +2 in t/o margin…..Cowboys went with QB A Bowman the entire way and appear to have ditched the 3-QB garbage for now, Iowa St QB R Becht 348, 3 TD
Kansas 38 BYU 27 – BYU made things a bit interesting for KU -9 backers as they cut the lead to 8 points midway thru the 4Q but the Jayhawks hit a FG with 1:33 left to get the cover…..366-351 yd edge for BYU but they were (-3) in turnover margin (!)
Houston 38 Sam Houston 7 – EAT EM UP KATS finally get the beating they deserve and it came from Houston……..538-178 yd edge for COOGS, hit the road to face Texas Tech next…..QB Grant Gunnell took over at QB for Sam Houston but didn’t make much of an impact
Big Ten
Wisconsin 38 Purdue 17 – Badgers win their 17th (!) consecutive game over BOILER UP…..bit of a misleading final as Purdue had 396-388 yd edge but were (-2) in turnovers…..Badgers are +8 in t/o L2G, Purdue is (-5).
Michigan 31 Rutgers 7 – Rutgers got up 7-0 and didn’t score again, played good defense tho, 415-257 yd edge, 201 rush 214 pass
Ohio St 17 Notre Dame 14 – WOW…..maybe not enough points for the YOUNG SPARKIES out there but that was a hard-hitting game with incredible drama in the 4Q…..Ohio converts a bunch on GW drive and convert a 3rd and 19 inside of 10 seconds, win game on final play……Ohio St -3 backers were saved by a review that put one second on the clock meaning they had to kick the XP and win 17-14 and not 16-14…….Questionable play calling by ND on their final drive and once again OCs want to show us how clever they are instead of trying to win the game…..You could almost hear the announcers say, “THAT’S AN INTERESTING STRATEGY, LET’S SEE HOW IT WORKS OUT FOR THEM” when the Irish tried to stop Ohio St on the final play with just 10 players……Not sure Brian Kelly ever did that…366-351 yd edge for Ohio St, neither team turned it over
Penn St 31 Iowa 0 – not even IOWA could IOWA this game and stay close……397-76 yard edge, yes, it was an obliteration
Maryland 31 Michigan St 9 – misleading final…..376-362 yd edge for SPARTY but they had 5 (!) turnovers (-4)…..Mich St QB N Kim didn’t look too great, yo
Indiana 29 Akron 27 – nasty 4 OT (!) loss for the Zips who had an incredible chance to win in the game in regulation…..BUT OF COURSE…..the theme of the week is SIMPLE JACK COACHING…..why try for a TD when you can set up for the “game-winning” FG that is ALWAYS automatic, right?……Missed……Hoosiers win in third OT
Northwestern 37 Minnesota 34 (OT)……did this actually happen???…..Gophers up 21-0 early…..and 31-10 (!) after 3Q…..NW ties the game with three fourth Q TDs including the last one with TWO seconds left…..Minn kicks FG in OT, NW wins it with TD…..well done, CATS……Note the yardage edge…….492-397 for Northwestern!
CORN 28 Louisiana Tech 14 – CORN up 21 nearing end of 4Q……Bulldogs slide in the BACK DOOR and cover the 20 point number with 5 minutes left…..that’s an OUCHIE
Conference USA
Troy 27 WKU 24 – misleading final, Troy dominated the stats, 521-288 yd edge, 172 rush and 349 pass
UNLV 45 UTEP 28 – Rebels do it again!…..14-14 early 2Q then it was all UNLV……497-316 yd edge for UNLV, 307 (!) rush yards….RB J Thomas 4 rush TD…..Dana Dimel regime could be going GLUG GLUG GLUG in El Paso
Colorado St 31 MTSU 23 – nice game for the Rams after the tough loss to Buffs……down 17-10 at half…..pretty even game….MTSU 430-378 yd edge, deciding factor might have been Rams great WR duo of D Holker and T Horton who combined for 21 catches and over 200Y (3 TD)
Liberty 38 FIU 6 – total splattering…..520-211 yd edge for Flames now sitting at 4-0
Hawaii 20 New Mexico St 17 – glad that LEAN CLUB grabbed the -2.5 early in the week…..Hawaii wins on last second FG…..were down 17-3 but pulled some late night magic……343-335 yd edge for Rainbow Warriors
Jacksonville St 21 Eastern Michigan 0 – WHOA NELLIE…….Those pesky Gamecocks look pretty good……388-152 yard edge and +3 in t/o margin…..Didn’t get much from QB L Smothers but rushed for 295Y
Independents
New Mexico 34 UMass 31…..Another agonizing loss for the Minutemen…..down 28-14 at half….forced OT…..misleading final……495-328 yd edge but slow start killed them
MAC
Toledo 49 Western Michigan 31 – YIKES….didn’t look great at the half as they were down 24-14…..35-7 in 2nd half…..497-393 yd edge…..allowed 230 yards rushing to Broncos
Central Michigan 34 South Alabama 30 – WOW….What in the SAM HILL is going on here?……Jags come home after destroying Oklahoma St and lay an egg…..took lead with around 3 min left and FIRE UP CHIPS win the game in the dying seconds…..405-355 yd edge for Jags, game could have gone either way
Georgia Southern 40 Ball St 3 – blowout city…..Ball St looks really bad #HotTake……..530-197 yd edge, 363 pass yards
Ohio 36 Bowling Green 7 – 328-211 yd edge for Bobcats, not a sparkling offensive performance, Ohio was +3 in t/o margin
Louisiana 45 Buffalo 38 – It’s time for the PULP FICTION GIMP to make his weekly appearance……Watch out for the hot knitting needles and the ball gag……Louisiana favored by 10 points….dominating the game up 45-24 with 7 minutes left…..Congrats Cajuns backers!! Just a smart pick let’s spend that money on cases and cases of masks to make sure we’re stocked up for the new “variants” coming in the fall!…..oh no…..what’s this?…..Buffalo TD with 4 minutes left….no big deal, it’s still 45-31….WHEW!…..Oh no….What’s this?…..Buffalo trying an onside kick….They get it…..Come on defense!…..NOPE…..TD Buffalo…..45-38 final…..Bulls get the money.
Fresno St 53 Kent St 10 – tough trip out west for the Golden Flashes…..513-231 yard edge, Kent St shut out in 2nd half, Fresno St QB M Keene 24/31 325 4 TD
Mountain West
Air Force 45 San Jose St 20 – Spartans grabbed a 20-10 lead then GLUG GLUG GLUG…..Falcons won 2nd half 28-CACK and ended up with 400 (!) rushing yards
Boise St 34 San Diego St 31 – entertaining and even game…..Aztecs with 439-403 yd edge but the game was won by the amazing running of Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty (23-205, 8.9, 2 TD) and a pair of costly San Diego St turnovers….That included a fumble inside the one yard line that went into the end zone for a touchback….That’s an OUCHIE…..Late BACK DOOR ACTION allowed San Diego St to cut the lead from 34-24 to 34-31 and get mobsters the cover in a game they drove down from Boise -7 to Boise -4.5/-5 on gameday.
Wyoming 22 Appalachian St 19 – HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA. <falls over> <gets up> HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA…..what a weekend for point spread shenanigans…….Lean Club gets a miracle push at -3…….down 19-7 after pick 6…..11 min left……long TD run……19-14……Huskies driving for FG with two minutes left….looking to take 8 point lead…..BLOCKED! Wyoming gets their first BLK FG TD in school history!…..but it’s only 20-19…..2-point is good! 22-19….Push is locked up!……oh no….what’s this?…..App St driving down to the 20 yard line in dying seconds well within FG range to take it into OT……INT! Pokes win by 3…….Crazier than the craziest ex-girlfriend with 12 cats……Major misleading final 417-208 (!) yard edge for Mountaineers…..27-7 first down edge
James Madison 45 Utah St 38 – Tough loss for Lean Club Utah St backers…….down 38-17 at half……roar back to tie it at 38……down 45-38 late inside the 10 and throw an INT………512-500 yd edge for James Madison……JMU 5 turnovers and Utah St with 3.
Texas St 35 Nevada 24 – back to back improved performances for Pack…..actually jumped out to 17-CACK halftime lead!……BOBS won the 2nd half 35-7 but failed to cover….574-353 yd edge for Texas St, each team with 3 turnovers
PAC 12
USC 42 Arizona St 28 – the Trojans looked very average as 35-point favs……535-353 yd edge….just 27-21 after 3Q….QB C Williams 3 TD passing 2 rushing
Utah 14 UCLA 7 – gross game, Utah guts it out with backup QB, 243-219 yd edge for Bruins
Oregon 42 Colorado 6 – it was “personal” and a total bloodbath….35-CACK at half………Buffs played very hard in 2nd half….522-199 yd edge
Washington 59 California 32 – They just keep destroying teams……45-12 at half……….529-502 yd edge for Huskies and they were +2 in t/o margin….QB M Penix another 300 yards and 4 TD
Washington St 38 Oregon St 35 – could the COOGS be the best team nobody is talking about?…..led 28-14 held on to win by three points…..Beavers had 21 points in 4Q……528-440 yd edge for Wash St
Arizona 21 Stanford 20 – Stanford led after 3Q 17-14 and had 358-349 yd edge, very even game, neither team turned it over
SEC
ROLL TIDE 24 Ole Miss 10 – Rebels jump out to 7-3 lead…..ROLL TIDE dominated 2nd half….356-301 yd edge, held Ole Miss to 56 rush yards and dominated the lines of scrimmage in the third and fourth Q
LSU 34 WOO PIG 31 – big time SEC battle nice game from the Hogs….LSU wins on last sec FG…..509-426 yd edge for Tigers…..that defense needs some work especially on the back end
Texas A&M 27 Auburn 10 – 402-200 yd edge for Aggies were much the best…..Note that their starting QB Conner Weigman got injured and it appears he’ll be out for a few weeks as we approach press time…..Keep tabs
South Carolina 37 Mississippi St 30 – very entertaining game…..COCKS up 14-0 early but Miss St tied it at 14-14 then close the rest of the way…….519-432 yard edge for Bulldogs and guess what – they remembered how to use the THROW GAME…..487 pass yards
Kentucky 45 Vanderbilt 28 – two pick sixes for Kentucky, jumped out to 21-CACK lead…..365-328 yard edge and forced four turnovers
Sun Belt
Georgia St 30 Coastal Carolina 17 – gameday mobster steam grabs the money……Georgia St wire to wire win…..Pretty even game in the stats…..Coastal with 402-373 yd edge…..Panthers 182-107 advantage on the ground and were 8/14 on 3rd downs.
Arkansas St 44 Southern Miss 37 – good for the Red Wolves they needed this one, BAYBEE…..even game…..449-425 yd edge for Southern Miss…..Ark St QB Jaylen Raynor 233 pass and 3 TD, 97 rush and 2 TD !
Betting review
Big plays
Oregon -21 (W) – closed at -21.5/-22…….Rocking chair winner
SMU +7 (L) – closed at +6.5…..hung around….(-2) in turnovers
Ole Miss +7 (L) – closed at +7 – looked good at the half, did nothing in 2nd half
Leans
7-5
Good start to the season on the leans/small plays after a great year on those BAD BOYS in 2022. Selection continues to be very frustrating on the big plays trying to pick the “best of the best”. That was also the pattern last season but hopefully the sampling variance starts to go our way. Lots of season left, yo. We continue to recommend that, for example, if you are a $20 bettor and want to play along with our picks don’t put too much on the big plays vs small ones (say $25-$30 max vs $20).
Winners
WV under, Hawaii, Army, Georgia St, EM under, Colorado St, Kansas St
Losers
Tex Tech, Illinois, UConn, FIU over, Utah St
Push it, Push it real good
THREE OF THEM! Don’t remember the last time that happened. (Rutgers, Wyoming, Clemson over)
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – OT loss this week was painful…..One win in the bag and still have Merrimack to look forward to!
Akron over 3.5 – talk about painful…….lost in 3-OT at Indiana as yuuuge dogs. Need to win three MAC games which is what we think they can do; Get the WHISKEY and REVOLVER ready, yo.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – Not completely dead but losing star WR and starting QB has been rough
UConn over 5 – 0-4, lots of winnable games but this one is on life support with another backup QB
Colorado St over 4.5 – solid road win after almost beating Colorado; QB change was yuuuuge
Kentucky over 7 – 4-0 vs cupcakes, Florida up next and that a big one
Tulane under 9.5 – one loss, need two more
Futures and Props Club
Things starting to come into shape and a few things breaking our way.
ACC Championship – went against Clemson and took Florida St and UNC. The Seminoles appear to be a LOCK to at least get into the game and the Tar Heels are playing well.
National Championship – nice trifecta of Texas, Georgia, USC. Things are wide open tho.
Heisman Trophy – SWEEET add this week as we gave multiple heads up on the addition of Michael Penix at 6-1 (see blog post, +500 to +600 was out there) to the portfolio. He’s now the slight fav on BetOnline and we’ve also got C Williams (#2) and Bo Nix (#4).
Cheers and Enjoy WEEK 5 !!!