Florida St at Clemson
posted Sept 21
The Game
WHOA NELLIE!
Saturday gets off to a fantastic start as the Seminoles travel to face Clemson at HIGH NOON. Florida St might have the highest quality win of anyone in the country as they took down LSU in impressive fashion in their season opener. They escaped with their lives in Chestnut Hill last week but they probably had one eye on this game. Clemson was embarrassed by Duke in their first game (L 28-7) but note that they outgained the pesky Blue Devils in that affair and kept shooting themselves in the paws.
Who will come out on top in this battle of ACC TITANS?
The Details
Florida St -2 Clemson (55)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida St 28.5 Clemson 26.5
Florida St offense vs Clemson defense
Florida St has been pretty good on offense this season and they came out like a HOUSAFIRE vs LSU putting up 494 yards and 45 points vs a talented defense. The run game has been inconsistent (#7 ACC rushing) but QB Jordan Travis has been efficient and the Noles rank #2 in the ACC in pass efficiency. They’re also avoiding negative plays (fewest sacks allowed ACC, 2nd fewest TFLA) and we expect them to have some success vs a Clemson defense that struggled a bit vs their only decent opponent (Duke) as mobile QB R Leonard and company rushed for 199Y and threw for 175Y. The Tigers are also having trouble getting the QB on the ground (#10 ACC sacks) and they’ll be in for a challenging afternoon trying to cover the elite Florida St WR duo of J Wilson and K Coleman.
Clemson offense vs Florida St defense
The Tigers are having definite issues stretching the field (20+ yards) but they’ve been very good at getting smaller chunks via the THROW GAME (#2 ACC 10+ yard pass plays; #2 rush) and Florida St’s defense hasn’t looked good in either of their two games vs Power 5 foes. They allowed well over 400Y to LSU and 457Y (!) to BC who just has a raw dual-threat QB and a bunch of scrubs at RB and WR. They’re #12 in the ACC in YPP defense, #8 vs the run, and #6 in pass efficiency D. We believe that Clemson will definitely get into the 20s and could tickle a 30 BURGER if the Noles help in the turnover department.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Clemson has won seven consecutive games in the series……..The weather looks perfect as we approach press time…..It seems to be overlooked that Clemson already has a conference loss so another defeat on Saturday probably means LIGHTS OUT for their major season-long goals.
Summary
We have a preference for the home team in this one given the motivational tidbit noted above AND the fact that Florida St’s defense has been underwhelming thus far in 2023. We were hoping to see the line get to +3 but no luck. The better play at the current market conditions appears to be the over as we believe both teams are capable of hitting their implied team total.
Conclusion
Lean – Over 55
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.