Ole Miss at Alabama
posted Sept 20
The Game
The LANE TRAIN brings his Ole Miss Rebels into Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon in what is one of the most interesting match-ups of the early college football schedule.They’re sitting at 3-0 with wins over Tulane (A) and Georgia Tech (H) on their resume. ROLL TIDE was upset at home by the mighty Longhorns in week 2 and boast victories over MTSU and South Florida.
Who will pick up the yuuuge conference win this weekend?
The Details
Alabama -7 Ole Miss 55.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 31.25 Ole Miss 24.25
Alabama offense vs Ole Miss defense
ROLL TIDE has tried three different QBs without much success (dead last SEC pass efficiency) and it looks as tho Jalen Milroe will get the call vs Ole Miss. Milroe played ok vs Texas but made a few critical mistakes and he probably doesn’t put a scare into the Ole Miss secondary. ROLL TIDE should be able to have some success running the ball as Milroe can be a devastating weapon on the ground and Roydell Williams is coming off a productive outing vs the Bulls. The best game plan will be to slow things down and pick up first downs with the rushing attack and sprinkle in a few deep shots which have worked well at times (10.0 YPA for Milroe). Ole Miss in #3 in the SEC in sacks (10) and the Tide have allowed 12 (2nd worst SEC) whilst allowing a bunch of plays for negative yardage (#12 TFLA per game). The path is there for Alabama, but can they pull it off without getting hurt with turnovers and sacks?
Ole Miss offense vs Alabama defense
The Rebels have been inconsistent on offense so far but still rank #1 in the SEC in YPP offense, #5 on the ground, #2 thru the air, and #1 in pass efficiency. They’ve allowed a few too many negative plays (#10 TFLA/game) and star RB Q Judkins has been a major disappointment so far in 2023 (3.3 YPC) but the good news is that QB Jaxson Dart has been fantastic (66%, 7-1 TD to INT, 12.5 YPA, 213 rush!). It’s also possible that they get some key weaponry back in the mix this week (WR Z Franklin, TE C Prieskorn) but we’ll have to see how practice unfolds the rest of the week. Oh, and having a QB like Spencer Sanders on the bench doesn’t hurt. ROLL TIDE has the defense to give Ole Miss trouble but they’ve spent a lot of time on the field thanks to the offense and rank #9 in the SEC vs the run, #4 in pass eff D, and #6 in YPP. Texas was eventually able to make them pay with some big plays in the THROW GAME and note that they struggled to do that vs Wyoming last week. If Ole Miss plays a clean game on offense (no worse than one turnover) they should have enough success to support a cover (or win).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
ROLL TIDE has won seven straight in the series…….Under Nick Saban the Tide are 3-4 ATS L7 as single-digit home favs…..Note the loss to Texas in that role this year……….The weather looks fine for Saturday afternoon as we approach press time…..HOT TAKE…..In the year 2023 (not the past) Ole Miss has the better overall coaching staff from top to bottom **.
** fact check – Maybe. Even likely, yo.
Summary
We expect Alabama to play a whole lot better than last week but they’ve been very inconsistent at QB, and dare we say, lousy when it comes to the performance of the offensive line. The pressure is on the home team and the Rebels are mighty hungry.
Conclusion
Official pick – Ole Miss +7 -114 <sent Sept 20, 1:41pm>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.