Week 4 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
FYI – for those interested a Heisman Trophy selection was added on the Futures and Props blog page.
Handy index: Quick Takes (official plays in blue; leans in green)
- Miami at Temple
- Maryland at Michigan St
- Akron at Indiana
- Oklahoma St at Iowa St
- Sam Houston at Houston
- Texas Tech at West Virginia
- Louisiana Tech at CORN
- New Mexico at UMass
- Kentucky at Vanderbilt
- UTSA at Tennessee
- Mississippi St at South Carolina
- Ohio at Bowling Green
- Minnesota at Northwestern
- Auburn at Texas A&M
- UNLV at UTEP
- New Mexico St at Hawaii
- Arizona at Stanford
- North Carolina at Pittsburgh
- Southern Miss at Arkansas St
- Rutgers at Michigan
- Florida Atlantic at Illinois
- Tulsa at Northern Illinois
- Texas at Baylor
- Army at Syracuse
- NC State at Virginia (Friday)
- Central Michigan at South Alabama
- USC at Arizona St
- Western Michigan at Toledo
- Virginia Tech at Marshall
- Duke at Connecticut
- Georgia St at Coastal Carolina (Thursday) (lean added Thurs 7:30am)
- Georgia Tech at Wake Forest
- Eastern Michigan at Jacksonville St
- Wisconsin at Purdue (Friday)
- Boise St at San Diego St (Friday)
- Charlotte at Florida
- Missouri vs Memphis (St Louis)
- WKU at Troy
- Rice at USF
- Colorado St at MTSU
- UCLA at Utah
- Air Force at San Jose St (Friday)
- Nevada at Texas St
- Oklahoma at Cincinnati
- Kent St at Fresno St
- Oregon St at Washington St
- UAB at Georgia
- Boston College at LUA-VUH
- UCF at Kansas St
- Ohio St at Notre Dame
- Appalachian St at Wyoming
- Iowa at Penn St
- California at Washington
- Georgia Southern at Ball St
- SMU at TCU
- Colorado at Oregon
- BYU at Kansas
- Liberty at FIU
- WOO PIG at LSU
- Buffalo at Louisiana
- James Madison at Utah St
QUICK TAKES
1. Miami -24.5 Temple (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -21
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 38.5 Temple 14
YOUR Miami Hurricanes get another CREAM PUFF before a bye week and then ACC play….They’ve disposed of Texas A&M (solid SEC West) team and a contender for the MAC title (Miami Ohio) in convincing fashion and their offense is humming (#1 ACC YPP, pass offense, pass efficiency, #3 rush YPC) whilst the D has been solid, especially vs the run (#1)….Temple has played the #202 schedule (!) and QB EJ Warner has been mediocre (53%, 4-2 TD to INT, 6.4 YPA)…..They’ll try and move the ball by a thousand cuts vs Miami but not sure they can do it….Bit of line value with the dog but we’ll pass for now.
No leanage
2. Maryland -6 Michigan St (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -5
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 29.5 Michigan St 23.5
Impossible to know where the Spartans’ heads are at given the suspension of HC Mel Tucker and they displayed an impressive ability to quit last week, albeit vs an outstanding Washington THROW GAME…..Maryland has started slow a couple of times but finished strong….The Terps can also SPIN the DISC thru the air which isn’t great news for the home team……Maybe Michigan St gives an inspired effort off that DEBACLE?…..Maybe not.
No leanage
3. Indiana -17 Akron (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 31 Akron 14
Indiana’s defense has been pretty solid but the offense has been very sketchy……QB T Jackson looked decent last week for the Hoosiers…..Akron has had their moments but really need MACtion to get going so they can find a few wins.
No leanage
4. Iowa St -3.5 Oklahoma St (36.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 20 Oklahoma St 16.5
Impossible to back either team……The Cowboys three-QB experiment is starting to look like HOT GARBAGE and they only averaged 3.3 YPA vs South Alabama last week…..Half of the Iowa St team is probably still dealing with food poisoning after eating buckets of bad oysters before the Ohio game and the other half is involved in gambling scandals….Can’t stop playing the LEGENDS OF THE NFL slots and giving Ronnie Lott a yank.
No leanage
5. Houston -12.5 Sam Houston (38.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Houston -13
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 25.5 Sam Houston 13
Still smarting after than Air Force game where we didn’t get the cover despite allowing an impossible 80 yards of offense to the Bearkats “offense”…..They play excellent defense but the offense stinks….Maybe they used the bye week to come up with a few new wrinkles??…..Houston is HOT GARBAGE and are in the middle of a Big 12 sandwich (Red Raiders next)….Line looks about right.
No leanage
6. Texas Tech -5.5 West Virginia (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -6.5 (assumes WV QB injured)
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 30.25 West Virginia 24.75
WEST BY GOD VIRGINIA got us to the window in the BACKYARD BRAWL last Saturday night but it appears as tho they lost starting QB G Greene (injured first Q, walking boot on sideline) for an indefinite period and backup N Marchiol doesn’t inspire too much confidence….He’s a highly-regarded specimen so maybe he’ll be better this week….The defense has been decent vs the run and they’re getting PENETRATION….They’ll need to focus on running behind that excellent OL again and work the overrated UNDERBELLY of the Texas Tech defense (#11 Big 12 run D, #10 YPC)…..There are some decent WR/TE weapons but how often can Marchiol hit medium to deep shots??….The Red Raiders don’t rank in the top five of almost all the key offensive and defensive metrics we track and they’ve been particularly disappointing in the THROW GAME (#10 Big 12 pass efficiency) and in achieving PENETRATION on defense (2nd last TFL/game)…..The good news for the Red Raiders is that from a talent standpoint their offense should be able to score at least close to their implied team total and that’s gonna make it hard for WV to cover…..Note Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS L4 vs WV…..How about some SWEET DOUBLE TEAM ACTION in the LEANAGE department?
Lean – Texas Tech -5.5
Lean – Under 55
7. CORN -20 Louisiana Tech (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – CORN -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – CORN 34.25 Louisiana Tech 14.25
It was great to see the Huskers pummel someone last week and they did it to a decent MAC school (W 35-11)….Louisiana Tech is CANNON FODDER at this point but it’s still hard to trust the Nebraska QBs…..They’ve also got Michigan on deck….We’ll cheer for CORN and pass on the betting side.
No leanage
8. UMass -3 New Mexico (49)………..MEGALOCKS line – UMass -3
Vegas Implied Score – UMass 26 New Mexico 23
Those KOOKY Minutemen snatched DEFEAT from the JAWS OF VICTORY last game vs Eastern Michigan as they allowed a game-winning 50-yd TD pass with just over a minute left….They’ve been much better than anticipated this season and are hungry for a win….The line has been creeping up since open which suggests to us that some dood working for a gambling syndicate has been hiding under a table in the mess hall and found out that starting QB PUMA may be good to go….If not, we don’t mind the back-up C Davis….New Mexico looks improved as well but make a long trip after a loss to their bitter rivals from New Mexico St….Was hoping for a pick ’em so will take a seat for now.
No leanage
9. Kentucky -14 Vanderbilt (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -13
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 32 Vanderbilt 18
The Commodores SHOCKED the WORLD last year by beating the Cats in Lexington but we don’t see that happening this season as they appear to have regressed and just lost to UNLV…..(go Rebels!)…….It’s hard to know what to think about Kentucky so far as they’ve played three tune-up games but at least they won them by a combined score of 108-34.
No leanage
10. Tennessee -20.5 UTSA (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 38.5 UTSA 18
The Volunteers fired a dud in their yuuuge game with the Gators and it’ll be interesting to see how they bounce back this week….The offense is still finding the big plays hard to find and they’ve got another massive game coming up next (South Cackalacky)…..UTSA will almost certainly be without starting QB Frank Harris once again.
No leanage
11. South Carolina -6 Mississippi St (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -5
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 28 Mississippi St 22
The Bulldogs escaped with an OT win over Arizona and followed that up with a blowout loss vs LSU….The change in offensive philosophy has been very bumpy to say the least but at least they’ve ran the ball well (#4 SEC rush offense, #2 YPC) and the COCKS are #13 in the SEC in run defense…..South Carolina has no rushing attack (last SEC) and a defense that ranks #12 in the conference in YPP allowed whilst achieving zero PENETRATION (last TFL/game)….QB S Rattler has looked very good against at tough schedule (#3 FBS) but it’s hard to lay almost a TD with a team that has so many flaws….Yuuuge game with the Vols up next.
No leanage
12. Ohio -12.5 Bowling Green (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -11
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 29.5 Bowling Green 17
Ohio and Miami Ohio are on a COURSE with DESTINY in the MAC East as it appears to already be just a two horse race….We would have liked to get down on some -9.5/-10 action but this BAD BOY caught some STEAM this am….Bowling Green is bad but they’ve had a few decent moments (especially on defense) in road games vs Michigan and Liberty.
No leanage
13. Minnesota -12 Northwestern (38)………..MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -11
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 25 Northwestern 13
We knew Northwestern would be a disaster but didn’t think that Minnesota would be looking so grim…..The defense is doing the best they can and they’ve got a legit #1 RB in Darius Taylor (334, 6.0, 2 TD) but the GREEK RIFLE A Kaliakmanis has been an ABOMINATION so far in 2023 (51%, 1-3 TD to INT, 5.1 YPA)…..Gophers 6-3 ATS L9 vs the Cats…..Can’t back either side in this game.
No leanage
14. Texas A&M -7.5 Auburn (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -7
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 30.25 Auburn 22.75
Everyone’s favorite bunch of SCULPTED HE-MONSTERS start the SEC schedule this week against Auburn….They’ve CRUSHED a pair of TOMATO CANS and lost their only tough game vs YOUR Miami Hurricanes…..QB C Weigman has looked good but they still can’t run the ball (#11 SEC) or defend the pass (dead last SEC pass eff D)……Auburn has only played one team even close to legit and they escaped with their lives (at Cal)…..They don’t look great on offense but they’ve ran the ball ok (#1 SEC) and have played good pass D (#2 SEC pass eff D)…..Auburn HC H Freeze is 16-6 ATS as a road dog over his career…..Jimbo is 17-4 as a home fav with Texas A&M…..Slightest of LEANAGES to the dog but let’s see where this line goes during the week.
No leanage
15. UNLV -2.5 UTEP (49)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 25.75 UTEP 23.25
The Miners have been a disappointment to say the least and there’s no doubt that HC Dana Dimel’s BITS AND PIECES are getting very toasty on the HOT SEAT…..They’re impossible to trust right now but might be worth a stab in the ML Underdog collection….Stay tuned………UNLV off a yuuuuge win over a Power 5 team (ya, Vanderbilt) and now find themselves in the rare point spread role of road fav (3-7 ATS L10Y)……Not sure about their QB situation as we approach press time.
No leanage
16. Hawaii -2.5 New Mexico St (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Hawaii -3
Vegas Implied Score – Hawaii 30.5 New Mexico St 28
This looks like a good spot for Hawaii as they’ve already had a pair of decent games vs Power 5 competition (Vanderbilt, Stanford) and whilst those teams aren’t very good they’re both better than the Aggies…..New Mexico St is off a yuuuuge win over their hated rival from New Mexico and this will also be their 3rd straight road game…..Hawaii had beaten the Aggies 10 consecutive times before LY’s loss.
Lean – Hawaii -2.5
17. Arizona -12.5 Stanford (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -10
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 35.5 Stanford 23
Arizona has looked pretty decent and almost SHOCKED the WORLD a few weeks ago in Starkville when they lost to Mississippi St in OT despite being (-4) in t/o margin……..Stanford is one of the bigger mysteries in the country as they appear to be better than anticipated but there’s no way of knowing until PAC 12 starts.
No leanage
18. North Carolina 7.5 Pittsburgh (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -7
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 28.75 Pittsburgh 21.25
It may not look too impressive on the surface but the Tar Heels have three decent wins under their belt (#13 schedule per Sagarin) despite getting good but not great performance out of star QB D Maye (73%, 4-4 TD to INT)….The defense has actually been a nice surprise (#5 ACC pass eff D, #2 sacks) and Pitt has no offensive identity right now (#12 ACC rush, dead last pass)…..Their D has also been pretty good (#3 YPP) but they’ve got WAY less PENETRATION than in previous seasons (#10 TFL)….We’ll wait around and see if some mobster money comes in on the home dog so we can get a better price but we seriously doubt that will happen.
No leanage
19. Southern Miss -7 Arkansas St (49)………..MEGALOCKS line – Southern Miss -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Southern Miss 28 Arkansas St 21
One of the easier games to toss in the DUMPSTER……Arkansas St has been an ABOMINATION whilst Southern Miss has looked awful……Although we will say playing Florida St and Tulane isn’t easy…..Fav or pass….Taking a seat for now.
No leanage
20. Michigan -24 Rutgers (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -24
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 34.25 Rutgers 10.25
We’ll take a small taste of the road puppy in this affair….Rutgers has clobbered their opposition so far (3-0) by a combined score of 95-30 and have done it with a strong ground game (#1 Big Ten rush off) and tough defense (#3 YPP, #2 rush, #3 pass eff D, #2 sacks)…..They’ve only played the #96 schedule according to Sagarin but Michigan ranks #126 in that regard and this will be their toughest opponent to date…..Rutgers HC Greg Schiano is 31-19-1 as a road dog (62%) and Michigan hasn’t got the rushing attack going like LY (#7 Big Ten) despite playing a bunch of stiffs.
Lean – Rutgers +24
21. Illinois -14 Florida Atlantic (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 29.25 Florida Atlantic 15.25
We thought this game would be a tough spot for the Illini in the offseason but Florida Atlantic hasn’t been playing up to par and they’re now littered with injuries including one to starting QB C Thompson who’s OFY….Several RBs are nicked up and their best defensive player S A Eli-Adams won’t play again until November…..It sounds like HC Tom Herman is very focused on getting thru this game healthy and maybe trying a few QBs……then getting to the bye week and preparing for AAC action…..Illinois is statistically horrible across the board in terms of Big Ten rankings but they’ve played a top-ten schedule and hung around vs Penn St despite being (-5) in turnovers……We don’t see the Owls doing much on offense and Illinois should be able to get to at least 28 points.
Lean – Illinois -14
22. Northern Illinois -3.5 Tulsa (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 28.5 Tulsa 25
We don’t have a good read on the Golden Hurricane right now and we’ve been disappointed with how the Huskies have looked so far in 2023…..We still think they’re the better squad and prefer them slightly to cover but note they’ve got a massive game with Toledo on deck.
No leanage
23. Texas -15 Baylor (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 33.25 Baylor 18.25
The mighty Longhorns took down ROLL TIDE in week two but struggled last week at home vs Wyoming and recall that they failed to get the cover in the opener vs Rice…..They rank #7 in the Big 12 in YPP offense, #10 in rushing, and #4 in YPP defense so it’s not like they’re indestructible…..Baylor lost the opener to Texas St and probably should have beaten Utah with their backup QB but SHAT the BED in the 4Q……They only beat something known as Long Island 30-7 (favored by 44), are down to their backup QB who’s a bit banged up, and currently rank #11 in the Big 12 in YPP D, #10 vs the run, and #10 in TFL…..The home team has covered four in a row in the series….We prefer the dog as both teams appear overrated to this point based on the key metrics but we’ll wanna see the mobsters drive the line towards -17 before we act…..Not likely but there’s always hope.
No leanage
24. Syracuse -14 Army (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -12
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 32.5 Army 18.5
This isn’t a difficult handicap for a small taste….You get a service academy as a double-digit dog which has been CASH MONEY since the LINCOLN ADMINISTRATION **……Syracuse has their game of the year next week (home to Clemson)….and the Army offense has really been clicking.
** fact check: still digging into it but it seems like a legit fact
Lean – Army +14
25. NC State -9 Virginia (48)………..MEGALOCKS line – NC State
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 28.5 Virginia 19.5
Neither team is very trustworthy…..The Cavs have been pretty much disgusting across the board BUT note that they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (#7 per Sagarin) and QB A Colandrea has at least proven he can hit some big plays in the THROW GAME….We’d love to roll with the Pack in this game but they’re #11 in the ACC in YPP offense and YPP defense whilst playing the #143 (!) schedule.
No leanage
26. South Alabama -15.5 Central Michigan (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -14
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 32.5 Central Michigan 17
The Jaguars showed us WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE last week when they went into Stillwater and destroyed Oklahoma St by a score of 33-7…..FIRE UP CHIPS didn’t fare too badly at Notre Dame last week but they’ve got bigger fish to try in MAC play…..and it starts next week with a game vs their despised rival Eastern Michigan…..Also not sure about the status of dual-threat B Emanuel as we approach press time…..Total puzzler gets more puzzling when you consider that the Jags have James Madison up next.
No leanage
27. USC -34.5 Arizona St (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – USC -31.5
Vegas Implied Score – USC 48.5 Arizona St 14
The Sun Devils turned the ball over an impossible EIGHT times last week and suffered a few more QB injuries….Not sure who’s gonna go this week but at least the defense has been admirable allowing just 21,27,29 in their three games so far…USC has a ridiculous offense but they’ll almost certainly throttle it down after a half….Prefer the favorite but need to mull it over a bit more.
No leanage
28. Toledo -21 Western Michigan (54)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -20
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 37.5 Western Michigan 16.5
Tough spot for the rebuilding Broncos as they’re playing a third consecutive road games and are coming off nasty contests vs the Orange and Iowa…..The defense of the MAC title starts NOW for the Rockets and they’ll be able to win this one convincingly if they play a decent game…..Could be a bit of a lookahead spot for Toledo tho as they’ve got Northern Illinois up next……Fav or pass but we’ll take a seat as it’s hard to now exactly how bad Western Michigan is at this point.
No leanage
29. Marshall -5 Virginia Tech (41)………..MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -3.5 (assumes VT starting QB out)
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 23 Virginia Tech 18
Tough game to call given the unknown status of Hokies’ starting QB G Wells…..He’s far from perfect but he at least gives them the threat of a THROW GAME….The defense has been holding their own considering how bad the offense has been….Could only go with the Herd in this one but we don’t see any value from that perspective….VT has won 9 straight in the series FWIW and both teams have conference play on deck.
No leanage
30. Duke -22 Connecticut (46)………..MEGALOCKS line – Duke -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 34 Connecticut 12
There might be a wee bit of value on the Huskies as Duke is an ATS darling right now having beaten the number by 40 points in their two games vs FBS competition and they’ve got a high profile game with Notre Dame on deck…..UConn has done well as a home dog under J Mora and are scrappy enough to keep this within three TDs.
Lean – Connecticut +22
31. Coastal Carolina -6.5 Georgia St (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 34.5 Georgia St 28
Two of the best teams in the Sun Belt East go head-to-head on Thursday night in a yuuuuge September battle…..Coastal played UCLA tough on the road and then beat a pair of CREAM PUFFS……The CHANTS haven’t been overwhelming (#7 Sun Belt Off YPP, #11 Def YPP) and they’ve had trouble stopping the run (#12)…..Georgia St has done a good job with the ground attack (#4) and proved last week that they can sling it around as QB D Grainger threw for well over 400Y…..CC QB G McCall had a 24-2 TD to INT mark LY but it’s just 4-2 so far and they’ve had trouble punching it in…..Note that the road team has won all six meetings SU…..Line has been OSCILLATING around 6.5/7 we’ll wait and see if a 7 pops up again…..Stay tuned
No leanage (see above)
Lean – Georgia St +7 -113 <note – there are several +7 -110s out there, mostly offshore; majority of shops in Vegas are showing +6.5; +6.5 is fine, +7 up to -120 is ok>
32. Wake Forest -4 Georgia Tech (60)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -5
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 32 Georgia Tech 28
Both teams have done a good job on offense……Neither team is trustworthy on defense…..but are the Demon Deacons REALLY the 1985 Chicago Bears in disguise as they racked up an impossible 10 (!) sacks vs ODU last week….We’re high on GT but still smarting after that WATERBOARD SPECIAL last week (see Week in Review post) and would have liked them at the +7 which was available for a while on Monday and then it got STEEEEEEMED down to +4.
No leanage
33. Jacksonville St -6 Eastern Michigan (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 29.25 Eastern Michigan 23.25
We love the spot for Jacksonville St as their off a bye and the Eagles have to travel down south whilst having a yuuuge date with Central Michigan up next but we were hoping for line at -2.5/-3 but here we are…..Neither team has done much on offense….Both teams are 2/2 under 52.5 vs FBS teams this season…..Both squads are in the bottom 30 in pass efficiency.
Lean – under 52.5
34. Wisconsin -6 Purdue (53.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -7
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 29.75 Purdue 23.75
You’d have to say that both teams have played below expectations…..particularly a Wisconsin team that needed a +6 (!!) turnover margin to bag a miracle cover last Saturday vs G Southern…..The starting QBs in this match-up have only thrown a combined five TD passes but Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in YPC rushing (5.7)….Purdue hasn’t looked good on defense…..the Badgers have been MEH……Not an easy game to call but note that Wisconsin has won an impossible 16 consecutive games vs BOILER UP (13-3 ATS)……The fav is a bit more trustworthy but we’re not interested at the moment, yo.
No leanage
35. Boise St -7 San Diego St (45)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 26 San Diego St 19
Speaking of disappointing teams….Boise has turned it around in conference play more often than not but they’ve looked pretty bad (by their standards) so far…..mind you against a few good teams (Wash, UCF)…..The Aztecs solid defense has apparently floated away into the ETHER (#9 MW YPP) but it’s not like Boise has been stout either……Boise has won their last eight MW openers….The Aztecs have covered six of the last eight in the series…..Prefer the dog but would want +7.5…..That doesn’t look feasible right now as the solid -7s in the market are morphing into -7s with a LIGHT DUSTING of -6.5s.
No leanage
36. Florida -28 Charlotte (49)………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida -27
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 38.5 Charlotte 10.5
Brutal spot for CHOMP CHOMP after the beatdown of Tennessee as they’ve got a tough road battle with Kentucky to look forward to next week…..Charlotte is still in the building process and have shown some GREEN SHOOTS of growth but we think they’re gonna have issues moving the ball.
No leanage
37. Missouri -6 Memphis (51) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 28.5 Missouri 22.5
It’s the battle of the TIGERS and it takes place in St Louis where you can get arrested for NOT carjacking and shooting up a Wendy’s…..Violence is encouraged and insisted upon so be careful if you’re heading to the game…..Memphis is one of the better teams in the AAC and have enough talent to keep this game within a score but we’d want a TD or more…..Line has dropped due to the uncertain status of Missouri QB Brady Cook who was hobbling a bit last week…..We’re almost 100% he’ll give it a go but who knows what happens if he starts grimacing…..Missouri off a thrilling last-second win over Kansas St and have SEC play up next (Vandy)…..Memphis hosts Boise St next week.
No leanage
38. Troy -3.5 WKU (58.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -3
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 31.5 WKU 28
We’ve got these teams power rated dead even and so -3 to -3.5 probably makes sense for home field….Both teams have looked shaky to say the least….WKU just gave up a billion points to Ohio St and recall that they allowed 374 (!) yards rushing to South Florida in week one…..Troy’s offense is HOT GARBAGE and they’re coming in off a home loss to James Madison.
No leanage
39. Rice -2.5 USF (58.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Rice -1
Vegas Implied Score – Rice 30.5 USF 28
The Bulls looked pretty good in losses to WKU and ROLL TIDE and QB Byrum Brown is capable of creating problems for average defenses (275 rush, 4-3 TD to INT)…..Rice got blown out by Texas in week one and then almost blew a 28-CACK lead to Houston in week 2……Both teams are a bit better than many would think and they’re also pretty even when offense, defense, special teams, and home field are taken into account….hence the -2.5 line…..Prefer the dog and they just might make our ML Underdog list for Friday.
No leanage
40. MTSU -3 Colorado St (52.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – MTSU -3
Vegas Implied Score – MTSU 27.75 Colorado St 24.75
The Rams have to be kicking themselves after blowing a late lead to their hated rivals from Boulder last Saturday night…..The good news is that they appear to have found a QB in Brayden Folwer-Nicolosi who’s a bit of a LOOSE CANNON but certainly very talented…..It’s hard to know what to make of MTSU after playing two SEC teams and something known as Murray St…..They’ve got a massive game with WKU on deck and the Rams have revenge on their minds after losing at home to these guys LY.
Lean – Colorado St +3
41. Utah -4.5 UCLA (52.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah -5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 28.5 UCLA 24
This is a big game in the PAC 12 as every loss may end being a KILLER given how deep the conference is in 2023…….The UCLA D is underrated and they’ve got a talented, albeit true freshman QB in D Jones…..Utah is a tough team to beat at home but we still don’t know the status of starting QB C Rising and deadly TE B Kuithe…..Really tough call for us but an ideal game for the mobsters to get a piece of as you know they’ll have a few people snorkeling in the Utah hot tubs collection key injury information.
No leanage
42. Air Force -5 San Jose St (46) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -4
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 25.5 San Jose St 20.5
The Falcons are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on the ground as per usual (321 YPG, #1 FBS) and the Spartans are having a tough time stopping folks on the ground…..(170 YPG, 2nd last MW)….Angle players will note that that Air Force is 12-17 ATS L29 as road chalk…..San Jose St has covered in each of their last five conference home openers.
No leanage
43. Texas St -17 Nevada (59) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 38 Nevada 21
The KOOKY Bobcats have been SCORING the FOOTBALL (42 vs Baylor, 77 vs Jackson St) but find themselves in a weird position of actually being a favorite….let alone one of the double-digit nature…..Don’t see much line value with Texas St even tho we’d love to jump on their train and note that Nevada was tied with Kansas last week midway thru the 4Q in what could have been a wake-up call of sorts
No leanage
44. Oklahoma -14.5 Cincinnati (57.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -14
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 36 Cincinnati 21.5
The Sooners have looked really good so far blowing out a pair of CUPCAKES and taking down a solid SMU squad (W 28-11)….Note tho that in that game they were slightly outgained by the Mustangs and were the beneficiary of +2 in t/o….Cincinnati has played better than most folks thought and now get their Big 12 HOME OPENER vs mighty Oklahoma…..May did into this one a bit more if there’s time….Slight preference to the dog but no SWEET ACTION yet.
No leanage
45. Fresno St -28 Kent St (49) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 38.5 Kent St 10.5
We’ve got this lined pretty much right at market…..Not crazy about laying 28 with a team that struggled to score points despite getting 8 (!) turnovers…..Also won’t be backing one of the worst teams in the MAC making a long trip to get incinerated….They’ve been a bit scrappy but no thanks.
No leanage
46. Oregon St -3 Washington St (58) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -2
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 30.5 Washington St 27.5
This is one of the more underrated games of the weekend as both teams are VERY underrated (especially Wash St) and each of them have an outside shot of weaseling into the PAC 12 title game conversation if the top three or four teams start cannibalizing ** one another….Oregon St has a powerful ground attack…..Washington St brings the potent air raid…..Oregon St can rush the passer…..The COOGS have home field…..Making our head spin…..Would want +3.5 to consider the dog and a pick em to play the Beavers and here we are.
** easy, Karen. They won’t really EAT each other. It’s a figure of speech.
No leanage
47. Georgia -42 UAB (54) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -40
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 48 UAB 6
Not too interested in this one…..Georgia can name the score even tho they have questionable incentive to do so…..UABs defense has been disgusting so far and have allowed 90 points in their last pair of games vs Georgia Southern and Louisiana…..If you wanna dabble with the Blazers it might be best to take the team total over if you can find a 6 or 6.5.
No leanage
48. LUA-VUH -13.5 Boston College (54.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -11.5
Vegas Implied Score – LUA-VUH 34 Boston College 20.5
The Cards have a pair of MEH wins on their resume (Ga Tech, Indiana) but can still proudly say they are 3-0 heading into a home game with Boston College…..Boston College gave an A+ effort vs Florida St last week and we wonder how much they’ll have in the tank for this BAD BOY……Bit of a revenge spot for LUA_VUH as they were upset in Chesnut Hill LY in this same price range…..Looks like dog or pass and we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
49. Kansas St -4 UCF (53) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 28.5 UCF 24.5
The line has been sliding down given the injury news related to K St QB W Howard who was hobbling around noticeably last week but we’ve got high hopes for highly-regarded true freshman Avery Johnson who has serious WHEELS and apparently decent passing skills that haven’t been on display yet…….UCF is #9 in the Big 12 vs the run despite playing the #142 schedule and that means the Cats should avoid too many 3rd and longs….UCF is also playing with their backup QB T McClain who looked good vs Villanova but this is a stern test for the Knights who make their Big 12 VIRGIN appearance…..K St banged up at MLB…..Cats’ HC C Klieman is one of the best ATS and is 11-6 vs Vegas as a home fav.
Lean – Kansas St -4
50. Ohio St -3 Notre Dame (55.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 29.25 Notre Dame 26.25
It one of the biggest games of the year but we haven’t made a decision on this BAD BOY yet…..The Irish have looked really good during their 4-0 start but they’ve only played one decent opponent (NC St)….They’ve scored 40+ in every game so far and we prefer the QB situation for Notre Dame with veteran star Sam Hartman…..Ohio St lit it up last week vs W Kentucky but hadn’t looked too potent before that game…..They’ll be plenty of Ohio St fans in the crowd and HC Ryan Day has more big game experience than Irish HC M Freeman…..Tough call at this price point will almost certainly wait for an in-game opportunity unless a 3.5 pops up again……Favor the dog just a titch.
No leanage
51. Wyoming -3 Notre Dame (42) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Wyoming -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wyoming 22.5 Appalachian St 19.5
The Mountaineers are a scrappy bunch but they’re ranked #113 in the nation in rushing defense and don’t have the toughness required (probably) to roll into Mountain West country and beat the toughest of the tough in the Wyoming Cowboys who beat Texas Tech and were within one score of Texas for 3Q……And they love to pound the football with the run game…..Boone NC is at altitude but not REAL altitude like Laramie which is like playing on the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro **.
** may need fact check
Lean – Wyoming -3
52. Penn St -14.5 Iowa (39.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 27 Iowa 12.5
Iowa’s offense is a complete and total DUMPSTER FIRE and they just lost their best receiving TE…..Their defense is still really good tho and it’s never easy to lay doubles vs Iowa who just scored on defense AND special teams as we were typing this…..Penn St didn’t look all that elite on offense vs Illinois but they shouldn’t have to do much to cover this game…..Prefer the fav but haven’t strolled to the window yet.
No leanage
53. Washington -20 California (60) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 40 California 20
We took it SHAWSHANK STYLE last week as the Huskies rolled up Michigan St on the road and QB M Penix is playing at an elite level….Cal HC Justin Wilcox is excellent as a road dog (16-6 ATS) but we’re not stepping in front of the Huskies train right now and we’re not confident that Cal can score enough to cover even tho that’s a LOT of points….They only posted 160,114 passing yards in their L2G.
No leanage
54. Georgia Southern -6.5 Ball St (61.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -7
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 34 Ball St 27.5
We certainly trust the Eagles to move the ball thru the air but they’ve proven to be a turnover-prone bunch so far…..They were right there with the Badgers on the road last week but turned it over six times…..They’ve also got a massive game with Coastal Carolina next week which will go a long way towards deciding who’s in the division hunt heading into October…..Ball St doesn’t have any reliable data points as they got roasted by two SEC teams on the road including Georgia and beat an FCS team last week.
No leanage
55. TCU -7 SMU (63) ………..MEGALOCKS line – TCU -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 34.25 SMU 27.75
It doesn’t get much better than the BATTLE for the IRON SKILLET…..SMU has taken down a pair of scrubs and lost on the road at Oklahoma in a competitive game (L 28-11)…..The THROW GAME has been wonderful and they’ve only been sacked one time in 109 attempts….That kind of pass pro will come in handy against a TCU team that leads the Big 12 in sacks…..TCU lost their opener to Colorado and have played the #97 schedule (SMU #159)….These teams typically play competitive games…..SMU won last time here in 2021…..Road team is 7-0-1 ATS L8
Lean – SMU +7
UPDATED – official pick SMU +7 -110 <sent 2:50pm Sept 22>
56. Oregon -21 Colorado (70) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -21.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 45.5 Colorado 24.5
This has the look of a big-time Oregon win as they’re once of the best teams in the country that LOVES to SCORE the FOOTBALL…..81 vs the thing known as Portland St…..38 vs Texas Tech…..55 vs Hawaii….The Buffs have the #122 defense in the nation and will be missing their best defensive player in CB (and WR T Hunter)…..Oregon has played decent defense (#30 FBS, #70 run, #20 pass efficiency D) and will be facing a one-dimensional offense behind star QB S Sanders….Bad situational spot for Colorado as they’re coming off three (!) emotional games to start the season…..hard fought…..everything was “personal”….gotta figure the tank has to be just a wee bit empty.
UPGRADED from lean/small play to Official pick.
Oregon -21 <sent 10:41am Sept 22>
57. Kansas -9.5 BYU (55) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -10
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 32.25 BYU 22.75
The Jayhawks have looked fantastic on offense most of the time but battled with inconsistency in the 2nd half vs Illinois and for a good chunk of the game vs Illinois and then mysteriously vs Nevada (!) last week….They’ve got a yuuuuge game with Texas on deck……The Cougars are undefeated after beating two TOMATO CANS and then upsetting WOO PIG on the road last week despite getting significantly outgained in that contest……HC K Sitake is now 13-4 ATS as a road dog……Kansas HC L Leipold has been a phenomenal home fav ATS…..something’s gotta give, yo….Prefer the fav but price isn’t cheap.
No leanage
58. Liberty -10 FIU (54) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 32 FIU 22
The Panthers have been one of the nice surprises of early season action and they just SHOCKED the WORLD by taking down UConn on the road…..Both teams have dangerous dual-threat QBs and questionable defenses…..Note that FIU’s only loss was in conference (La Tech) so this is a yuuuge game if they wanna stay in the C-USA hunt (don’t laugh, it’s C-USA).
Lean – Over 54
59. LSU -18 WOO PIG (55.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -17
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 36.75 WOO PIG 18.75
WOO PIG is coming off a home loss to BYU (424-281 yd edge) and they’re having a hard time moving the football thru three games (dead last SEC YPP offense)…..The D has been decent tho (#3 SEC Def YPP, #1 rush, #5 PED, #2 TFL) and they’ll need to be at their best to slow down the potent Tiger offense (#3 YPP offense)……LSU’s D has been a bit sketchy (#13 SEC YPP D, #12 run D, #8 pass eff D, #12 TFL)…..which makes us think that the Hogs can have some success…..The intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that WOO PIG HC Pittman is 13-6-1 ATS as a dog and there’s lots of hatred to go around in this BAD BOY.
Lean – WOO PIG +18
60. Louisiana -10 Buffalo (57.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -8
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 33.75 Buffalo 23.75
Tough spot for the struggling Bulls to get things together (0-3) but at least they’ve still got some hope with MACtion starting next week (at Akron)…..The Cajuns are coming off an impressive road win over UAB but we don’t think they deserve to be laying double digits.
No leanage
61. James Madison -5.5 Utah St (52.5) ………..MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 29 Utah St 23.5
The line was creeping up towards -7 which would have been a nice number to catch with the home dog but it appears as tho some mobsters caught wind of some food poisoning, death jab injuries, point shaving, etc **…and now we are looking at a -5.5 proposition with some -5s popping up……Utah St will be going with a less-experienced (but more talented) QB in McCae Hillstead and this is a team that played well at Iowa and put up a 78 BURGER vs the people known as Idaho St…..The Dukes are incredibly stingy vs the run but very vulnerable vs the THROW GAME…..They’ve also got a massive date with South Alabama up next.
** Just kidding. Not really.
Lean – Utah St +5.5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.