Week 4 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week. Point spreads and totals are consensus lines at time of posting unless otherwise noted.
NOTE – our 2nd pick (Clemson) has not gone thru email yet – Mailchimp (email provider) is having issues….The good news is that it went thru the Pushed App. Over 80% of members have the App so those of you with the App will have received a text notification! According to Twitter, Mailchimp is still having issues and we won’t send another pick until they are back up. Cheers!
UPDATE 5:15pm Thursday. Per Mailchimp Twitter account, Email is back up.
As always may add picks and leans up until Friday evening.
Handy index: Quick Takes (official picks in blue. leans in green.)
- Nevada at Air Force (Friday)
- Boise St at UTEP (Friday)
- MTSU at Miami
- Northern Illinois at Kentucky
- Charlotte at South Carolina
- Vanderbilt at ROLL TIDE
- New Mexico at LSU
- Connecticut at NC State
- Kent St at Georgia
- Central Michigan at Penn St
- Virginia at Syracuse (Friday)
- Indiana at Cincinnati
- Navy at East Carolina
- Hawaii at New Mexico St
- Texas at Texas Tech (updated Friday pm)
- FIU at Western Kentucky
- Baylor at Iowa St
- UCLA at Colorado
- Akron at Liberty
- Georgia Tech at UCF
- Wyoming at BYU
- Bowling Green at Mississippi St
- USF at Louisville
- Iowa at Rutgers
- Western Michigan at San Jose St
- Florida Atlantic at Purdue
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia St (Thursday)
- Boston College at Florida St
- Notre Dame at UNC
- Massachusetts at Temple
- Maryland at Michigan
- Wisconsin at Ohio St
- Clemson at Wake Forest
- Buffalo at Eastern Michigan
- Rice at Houston
- North Texas at Memphis
- Missouri at Auburn
- UNLV at Utah St
- Louisiana at ULM
- Southern Miss at Tulane
- Utah at Arizona St
- Duke at Kansas
- James Madison at Appalachian St
- Miami Ohio at Northwestern
- Tulsa at Ole Miss
- Louisiana Tech at South Alabama
- Kansas St at Oklahoma
- TCU at SMU (updated 1:19 Fri pm)
- Minnesota at Michigan St
- Ball St at Georgia Southern
- USC at Oregon St
- Toledo at San Diego St
- Oregon at Washington St
- Arizona at Calfornia
- Stanford at Washington
- Marshall at Troy
1. Air Force -24.5 Nevada (48.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -24
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Air Force -23.3 **
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 36.5 Nevada 12
The Falcons SPIT THE BIT last week vs Wyoming and get to take out their frustrations on a brutal Nevada squad that just lost 27-CACK to Iowa….The Pack are in clear rebuild mode and AF is still a major contender in a wide open and surprisingly hideous Mountain West Conference…..Line looks about right….Feels like fav or pass…..Don’t like the ‘under’ like last week as AF could hit the ‘over’ themselves depending on what kind of mood they are in.
** Based on a calibration, manipulation, and extrapolation of several reputable sets of college football power ratings
2. Boise St -16.5 UTEP (46.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -17
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Boise St -15.9
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 31.5 UTEP 15
“Nurse! Nurse! Put down those vials of the DEATH JAB and take a break from murdering unsuspecting patients for a minute or two. We may have life at Boise St!”…..The Broncos are still playing RUSSIAN ROULETTE at QB but the defense has allowed 123 and 152 (!) yards in their last two games….New Mexico and something known as UT Martin are HOT GARBAGE but UTEP isn’t much better….They just lost to New Mexico and are sitting at 1-3 after a magical 2021 campaign (by their standards)…..Line looks spot on….Boise has yuuuge date with San Diego St on deck.
3. Miami -25.5 MTSU (53.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Miami -24
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Miami -27.2
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 39.5 MTSU 14
YOUR Miami Hurricanes put up a good effort in their road loss to Texas A&M and outgained the Aggies 392-264…..They couldn’t GIT ER DONE in the red zone….and as we noted last week on these very pages….the WR group leaves a lot to be desired…The offense in general hasn’t been humming, even against scrubs like Southern Miss….MTSU isn’t any good BUT we must concede that they could be a bit better than advertised which makes them a difficult dog to fade in this price range….They destroyed Col St 34-19 on the road and took care of FCS turd Tenn St 49-6 last week….nothing to write home about but they are probably better than Southern Miss and Miami beat those doods by 23….Miami with a bye week and then ACC play.
4. Kentucky -26 Northern Illinois (53) …….MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -21.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Kentucky -24.8
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 39.5 Northern Illinois 13.5
The Cats come into this one off a 31-CACK win over FCS foe Youngstown St and have a 3-0 record as we approach press time…Northern Illinois blew a 2-TD lead to Vanderbilt and were absolutely decimated with injuries…..starting QB….top WR….defenders…..who knows how many of those guys will go this week but our bet is that they rest as many doods as possible for MAC play….Line appears to have factored in the medical carnage….Cats with SEC play on deck.
5. South Carolina -22.5 Charlotte (65.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – South Carolina -22.8
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 44 Charlotte 21.5
Yes, guy…..Charlotte got on the board last week behind senior QB Chris Reynolds and took down a solid Sun Belt team (on paper) in Georgia St with a last second TD….South Cackalacky was CREMATED by Georgia and will look to book back-to-back wins (SC St next) before heading back into SEC action…..Charlotte can SCORE the FOOTBALL but play no defense….like Nebraska-level defense….maybe worse….Tough call at this price.
6. ROLL TIDE -40 Vanderbilt (59) …….MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -38.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – ROLL TIDE -40.3
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 49.5 Vanderbilt 9.5
This will be the third tune-up before the challenging part of the SEC schedule kicks in….ROLL TIDE looked bad vs Texas but they scored 55 vs Utah St and 63 vs ULM….Vandy doesn’t play much defense so this should be another handy win….Shoutout to COMMODORE NATION and MEGALOCKS Season Win Total Club bagging an early winner with Vandy…..This one looks like a 35-45 point win….Pass.
7. LSU -30 New Mexico (47) …….MEGALOCKS line – LSU -33
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – LSU -29.6
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 38.5 New Mexico 8.5
The Tigers gave Mississippi St a solid kick in the JACOBS last week and have to be full of confidence as we approach press time….The DL looked really good vs Miss St and QB J Daniels played really well….The Lobos took down UTEP last week and play good D but the LSU team speed will be too much and their offense is a disgusting mess…..LSU has Auburn on deck but they can cover this one by accident.
Lean – LSU -30
8. NC State -39 Connecticut (50) …….MEGALOCKS line – NC State -37
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – NC State -36.3
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 44.5 Connecticut 5.5
Not a game we’re interested in here at MEGALOCKS HQ……Connecticut is gonna have major issues getting anything done, the line looks accurate, and NC State has the yuuuuge game with Clemson on deck……UConn comes in off a 59-CACK loss at Michigan
9. Georgia -44 Kent St (60) …….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -41
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Georgia -42.6
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 52 Kent St 8
WHOA, NELLIE….Kent St might be the best team in the MAC East but Georgia is an absolute ANIMAL and have allowed just 10 points in 3G…..SEC play continues next week with a road date at MISSURAAH…..Kent St has bigger fish to fry and have to believe they’ll be happy to take the U of GA money and get out of town.
10. Penn St -26 Central Michigan (61) …….MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -24
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Penn St
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 43.5 Central Michigan 17.5
Penn St beat Auburn like a RED-HEADED STEPCHILD last week (W 41-12) whilst cranking out 200+ yards rushing for the 2nd week in a row….They’ve also had a fine history of smashing MAC teams at home (beat Ohio week two 46-10 = Exhibit A)…..FIRE UP CHIPS have sputtered a bit to start the season and are probably focused on MACtion.
11. Syracuse -10 Virginia (55) …….MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -8.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Syracuse -8.6
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 32.5 Virginia 22.5
The Orange escaped with their lives last week vs Purdue with a TD pass in the dying seconds…an 808 STAR MEGALOCKS SAFE AND EFFECTIVE POWER LOCK winner….Purdue outgained the Orange doods 485-306 (!) and put up more than 400Y passing….Virginia doesn’t have the explosive THROW GAME from LY but they still have a crafty veteran QB….Both Ds have been MEH…Poking holes in the DD fav which is what you have to do…Orange allowing 48% 3rd down conversions, have averaged 3.1 and 3.6 YPC L2G, are #126 in penalties per game, and are +40 vs Vegas in 3G….Virginia is -24 vs two FBS opponents….Little bit of value with the road doggie according to the numbers….Note that Virginia was PURE FILTH in their only road game so far….L 24-3 to Illinois whilst going 0-15 on 3rd downs…Don’t see this line going up so if you wanna nibble on the dog maybe do it sooner rather than later, yo?
Lean – Virginia +10
12. Cincinnati -17 Indiana (54) …….MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -15.3
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Cincinnati -16.2
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 35.5 Indiana 18.5
Not a game we’re super pumped about from a wagering standpoint….We still don’t know how good Cincinnati is this year as it took a while to separate from Miami Ohio and their back-up QB but they did look solid in the loss to Arkansas….Indiana is 3-0 and probably fortunate to have said 3-0 record….outplayed by Illinois…..slithered past WKU last week in OT…..Hoosiers seeking revenge for last year’s home loss to the Bearcats….a 777,000 STAR MEGALOCKS TRUST THE SCIENCE SUPER LOCK winner……Line looks about right.
13. East Carolina -17 Navy (48.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -18
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – East Carolina -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 32.75 Navy 15.75
Never easy to lay this kinda WOOD against a triple-option team….particularly when the last two games between these two teams have been decided by 3 and 4 points…..Navy is playing like HOT GARBAGE but don’t see much value with either side.
14. New Mexico -3 Hawaii (55) …….MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico St -1.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – New Mexico St -3.9
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 29 Hawaii 26
Yup, this game is actually being played……Two of the worst teams in the nation go head-to-head and LET THE FUN BEGIN!!….Hawaii has shown flashes on offense whilst New Mexico St has had brief moments of competence on defense. No thanks.
15. Texas -7 Texas (60) …….MEGALOCKS line – Texas -7
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Texas -5.6
Vegas Implied Score -Texas 33.50 Texas Tech 26.50
Here we go, buh buh….Big 12 time for the Longhorns and they start with a tricky road date in Lubbock…..The last two meetings in this venue have both resulted in 7-point Texas wins….Our DEEP BIG 12 INSIDERS tell us that QB Quinn Ewers may be back sooner than expected off his injury but we’d be surprised if they risked his physical well-being before the October 8th date with the Sooners….Texas has allowed just 50 points in 3G and held ROLL TIDE to 20….Texas Tech hasn’t had a ton of success on the ground but have put up good numbers in the THROW GAME despite inconsistent QB play….Very underrated home field advantage for this one but the Red Raiders are (-6) in t/o margin and have allowed 10 sacks….but their D has allowed just 2.3 YPC and 52% completions….Should be an entertaining game….would want +7 to take a shot with the dog…..May come back to this one later in the week.
Updated Friday afternoon: Lean Texas Tech +7
16. Western Kentucky -29 FIU (66.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -28
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Western Kentucky -28.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 47.75 FIU 18.75
How BAD are the Panthers?……It’s impossible to know at this point but in two games they’ve slithered past something known as Bryant in OT and got drilled by Texas St….WK took down a pair of TOMATO CANS and then lost to Indiana in OT last week….Should the fair number be 24? 27? 35? 40?…..not even freaks covered in scales making power ratings to the 4th decimal point can know for sure.
17. Iowa St -2.5 Baylor (46) ……MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Iowa St -0.9
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 24.25 Baylor 21.75
This has the look of a one-score SNOT BUBBLER going down in Ames, Iowa….The Cyclones have been better than expected getting off to a 3-0 start despite losing so much production from LY and note that they finally got the IOWA MONKEY off their back in week two…Baylor abused a pair of scrubs and lost an OT game at BYU….Last three meetings have been decided by 2,7,2 points….Feels like a coin toss and wouldn’t take less than +3 with either squad.
18. UCLA -21 Colorado (57) ……MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -18.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UCLA -20.9
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 39 Colorado 18
Only one game to go in this one as the Buffs are an absolute disgrace to humanity as we approach press time…..Can they give it one more COLLEGE TRY vs a conference opponent before the mass firings and carnage takes place?….UCLA fell behind Bowling Green by 10 before blowing them out and needed a last play FG to beat South Alabama at home last week….Neither team trustworthy of your money as we approach press time.
19. Liberty -29.5 Akron (57.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -28
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Liberty -28.2
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 43.5 Akron 14
Here we have an unappetizing game from a wagering standpoint…..Liberty came very close to taking down Wake Forest but missed a two-point conversion try (L 37-36)….and to be honest…The Flames have played three nail-biters in a row….and now they get Akron?…..They stink but don’t see much value in laying almost 30 points.
20. UCF -20.5 Georgia Tech (56.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – UCF -17
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UCF -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 38.5 Georgia Tech 18
Yes, guy……The Knights got back on the board last week and smoked a decent C-USA squad in Florida Atlantic (W 40-14)….They get to face a brutal Ga Tech squad this week but note that the Jackets have had to play Ole Miss and Clemson already so they may not be as disgustingly disgusting as they appear….UCF has a yuuuuge conference tilt with SMU on deck.
21. BYU -21.5 Wyoming (49.5)……MEGALOCKS line – BYU -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – BYU -22.9
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 37.25 Wyoming 14.25
Tough game to call….BYU is still hurting after their blowout loss at Oregon….Any hopes of a major bowl bid may have gone down the CRAPPER with that blowout….They’re still a physical and talented team but it would help to get their top-two THROW GAME weapons back in the mix…..Both are still game-time decisions as we approach press time…..Wyoming SHOCKED the WORLD and just might indeed be on the way to cobbling together six wins to make a bowl game….Their offense is gross but they play sound defense and it’s hard to get separation on these guys without the help of turnovers and/or explosive plays….Line looks about right.
22. Mississippi St -30 Bowling Green (52.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -27
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Mississippi St -28.8
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 41.25 Bowling Green 11.25
Tough spot for the Bulldogs after getting worked in the 2nd half by LSU in a 31-16 road loss….QB Will Rogers was under a lot of duress and there were a small handful of questionable play calls on 3rd and especially 4th down…..we say it every year….Leach will cost you a game every year and hopefully this was the 2022 version with no more to come….They’ve got Texas A&M on deck and still a lot to play for….Bowling Green followed up a 7-OT (!) loss to E Kentucky with a come from behind OT win over Marshall last week and head to SEC country before starting MACtion action….Line looks a few too points high to us but the talent edge favors Miss St BIGLY.
23. Louisville -14.5 USF (64.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – LUA-VUH -15.2
Vegas Implied Score – LUA-VUH 39.5 USF 25
The Bulls came very close to taking down the mighty Florida Gators last week (L 31-28) and they outgunned Florida 402-329 in yardage whilst plowing them for 286 yards on the ground….The Cards have allowed 200+ yards on the ground on two occasions and have allowed every opponent (!) to average 5+ YPC….The Bulls defense is complete trash but any number over ’14’ is probably worth a little nibble…..LUA-VUH has ACC foe Boston College on deck.
Lean – USF +14.5
24. Iowa -7.5 Rutgers (34.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -9.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Iowa -8.0
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 21 Rutgers 13.5
There’s no snowstorm engulfing New Jersey so a total of 34.5 (!) can only mean one thing…..Iowa is coming to town!….We escaped with our small potatoes Iowa wager last week and need at least one week off before dipping our toes back in…..Their D is lights out but the offense is beyond disgusting…..Rutgers plays good D but there’s no indication of who or what will play QB for them on Saturday.
25. San Jose St -7 Western Michigan (49) ……MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -5.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – San Jose St -5.8
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 28 Western Michigan 21
The Spartans are off a bye week and the last time we saw them they were giving Auburn a good game (L 24-16)…..Western Michigan has to travel out west coming off a meat grinder loss to Pitt….Also a revenge spot for SJ St as the Broncos took care of them LY 23-3….Line is a bit rich at this point…..May come back to this one for a small taste.
26. Purdue -20 Florida Atlantic (61) ……MEGALOCKS line – Purdue -20.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Purdue -19.9
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 40.5 Florida Atlantic 20.5
BOILER UP has been playing good football but have suffered a pair of excruciating losses at the hands of Penn St and Syracuse….The should be able to get to their team total but FAU can also SCORE the FOOTBALL…thankfully their D is trash…Tough call and note that Purdue has Big Ten action on deck.
27. Coastal Carolina -2.5 Georgia St (62) ……MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Coastal Carolina -1.7
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 32.25 Georgia St 29.75
Coastal Carolina just WINS games…..They haven’t played anyone of note yet but 3-0 is 3-0, buh buh…..They beat Army, were outgained by something known as Gardner-Webb, and took care of Buffalo….all three of those games were at home….Georgia St fell to South Carolina and UNC (understandable) and then CRAPPED the BED last week by losing to Charlotte despite gaining 602 yards….They can still make a bowl game and this is their first Sun Belt tilt….We expect max effort but there’s no guarantee it’ll be good enough….Still lean with the home dog but wait and hope to get a better price on game day – stay tuned.
Lean – Georgia St +3 -116 (Pinnacle)…..we waited until 4:30 on game day…..you might be able to get the +3 cheaper if you wait until closer to kick
28. Florida St -17.5 Boston College (48.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -14.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Florida St -15.7
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 33 Boston College 15.5
Not a game that’ll make our card….Noles are the clearly superior outfit and while it looks as tho starting QB D Travis will start….the line looks a titch high according to our numbers and the AWARD-WINNING MMC (-15.7)…..Cat is out of the bag on how horrible BC is and the market is starting to catch up, yo.
29. UNC -1.5 Notre Dame (55.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UNC -0.2
Vegas Implied Score – UNC 28.5 Notre Dame 27
The greatest head coach of all time finally won a game last week as Notre Dame slithered past Cal….UNC has a loaded offense but have a defense so disgusting and pitiful that you need to look away from the TV when they’re on the field…puzzling DUNG FEST that we cannot and will not bet upon.
30. Temple -9.5 Massachusetts (43.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Temple -7
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Temple -8.1
Vegas Implied Score – Temple 27.5 Massachusetts 17.5
The Minutemen got on the board last week vs something called Stony Brook (20-3) but they only managed to cobble together 264Y of offense….Temple has apparently found a capable QB in EJ Warner but they’re still limited on offense…..They did however give Rutgers a good game last week….Price looks a bit steep but it’s probably fav or pass.
31. Michigan -17 Maryland (65) ……MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -19.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Michigan -18.8
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 41 Maryland 24
The first three games of the Michigan schedule did a great job of quenching Coach Jim’s thirst for HUMAN BLOOD ** but it did very little to help us figure out how good they are….We know the offense will be top-10 but it’s still unclear how the defense will hold up against one of the best passing attack in the nation….The Terps also worked SMU for 225Y on the ground last week….Line looks a bit light which is surprising…..could it be super-extra-sharp-action nibbling away on the underdog? ……Note that Maryland, with the rare exception, has been regularly blown to bits by the cream of the Big Ten….Tough call at this market price.
** fact check: very likely
32. Ohio St -18.5 Wisconsin (57) ……MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -20
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Ohio St -19.1
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 37.75 Wisconsin 19.25
The Buckeyes have gotten things rolling in the last two games beating Arkansas St and Toledo by a combined score of 122-33 and the THROW GAME has been particularly devastating….Wisconsin has a pair of wins over TOMATO CANS (Illinois St, New Mex St) and a home loss to Washington St…Don’t laugh…..ok seriously…..don’t laugh….but Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz hasn’t looked bad so far (71%, 6-2 TD to INT) and rushing attack has been fine…but as noted above….the stats include a pair of virtual exhibition games…..Ohio St struggled in week one vs Notre Dame so it’s not impossible to think that they could have a bit of trouble this week….but our view is that the THROW GAME is cooking and will continue to cook on Saturday…..Would prefer a number of -17 but Ohio St still worth a nibble up to -19.5……we think.
Lean: Ohio St -18.5
33. Clemson -7 Wake Forest (56) ……MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -8.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Clemson -7.0
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 31.5 Wake Forest 24.5
Clemson has done nothing wrong so far as they’ve squirted out to a 3-0 record but this will be their first test….QB DJU has been a bit better than during the disastrous 2021 campaign (65%, 5-1 TD to INT) and RB Will Shipley has been rock solid (7.8 YPC, 6 TD)….Wake QB Sam Hartman has looked fine since returning in week two (62%, 7-2 TD to INT) but they couldn’t get anything going on the ground last week vs Liberty (21 rush yds) (!)…..Clemson took Wake down 48-27 LY and the INTREPID Marc Lawrence reminds us that the Tigers have beaten the Deacons 13 straight times.
Official pick – Clemson -7 -115 <sent 3:50pm Sept 22>
34. Eastern Michigan -6 Buffalo (60) ……MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -6
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Eastern Michigan -7.3
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 33 Buffalo 27
YES, GUY….Congrats to one of our MACtion buddies the Eastern Michigan Eagles who went out west and took down a PAC 12 opponent (Arizona St, 20-21) in style whilst rushing for 305 yards….They’ve got UMass on deck so a 4-1 start looks possible….Buffalo has lost a pair of games to almost-certain 2022 bowl teams (Maryland, Coastal Carolina) and fell on a Hail Mary vs Holy Cross **….This is as close to a must-win game as you can get for the Bulls and they can turn their season around with a road win…..Line looks right to us…The market thinks it should be a touch higher…..EM 7-14 ATS L10Y as home chalk.
** fact check: divine intervention possible
35. Houston -17.5 Rice (51.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Houston -17
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Houston -20.2
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 34.5 Rice 17
The Cougars are licking their wounds and their paws after losing two of their first three games….Last week they got rolled by Kansas and note that they’ve allowed 30+ in every game so far (two were OT)….They’ve been disappointing on both sides of the football whilst Rice has been a pleasant surprise so far….two wins including a throttling of defending Sun Belt champion Louisiana (W 33-21)……Rice QB TJ McMahon has looked decent enough so far and Houston should be able to score some points on the Rice D……Would want a few more points to nibble on the dog and think the total is the better play.
Lean – over 51 -115
36. Memphis -12.5 North Texas (70) ……MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -13.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Memphis -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 41.25 North Texas 28.75
North Texas tried to TRADE PAINT with the wacky UNLV Rebels last week but were finally blown to bits in the 4th Q…..sadly that was a 9,002 STAR MEGALOCKS DIE IN A SKYDIVING ACCIDENT YOU HACK SUPER LOCK loser……Their D is disgusting but they can move the ball on the ground and thru the air….Memphis has a potent THROW GAME and sketchy D….Total a bit rich for our tastes….Feels like a 10-17 point Tigers win.
37. Auburn -7 Missouri (52) ……MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -8.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Auburn -9.2
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 29.5 Missouri 22.5
Auburn is a HOT MESS right now and are still smarting after a nasty beating from Penn St last Saturday (L 41-12)….TJ Finley is out at QB and we don’t feel great about their other options….HC Bryan Harsin is another coach that probably needs a full-time FOOD TASTER as everyone wants him gone gone gone……Missouri can probably smell blood but the line looks light and they aren’t the most trustworthy bunch on the road…2-9 SU under HC Drinkwitz.
38. UNLV -3 Utah St (63) ……MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -2.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Utah St -0.3
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 33 Utah St 30
WHOA NELLIE…..the only thing more surprising than the Canadian government taking a brief hiatus from murdering and torturing their own citizens ** is that fact that UNLV is a ROAD FAV over the defending Mountain West champs…..We see theoretical “value” in the home dog but it’s hard to pull the trigger when the Rebels are in peak form and the Aggies have lost their last two games by a combined tally of 90-7…..one of those was vs ROLL TIDE but it’s clear that their season is at risk of going GLUG GLUG GLUG…..possible candidate for ML underdog play but still unsure if we wanna back them at +3.
** trust the science
39. Louisiana -9 ULM (51) ……MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -12
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Louisiana -15.4
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 30 ULM 21
ARGH…..we were hoping for a line in the (-14) range but that went down the CRAPPER once the Cajuns got worked by Rice…ULM’s numbers are skewed due to meetings with ROLL TIDE and Texas and we think they’ve got the MINERALS to pull an upset or two this year….Just can’t take this short price.
40. Tulane -13 Southern Miss (48) ……MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Tulane -13.6
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 30.5 Southern Miss 17.5
Not a game we’ll be getting involved with….Tulane certainly looks like a much-improved bunch and come home after a yuuuuge road upset over Kansas St…There are 5-10 teams that we’re still a bit wobbly on in terms of a firm opinion and Southern Miss is one of those squads.
41. Utah -15.5 Arizona St (54) ……MEGALOCKS line – Utah -16
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Utah -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 34.75 Arizona St 19.25
The FIGHTING HERMS are now the Sun Devils once again after said HC was shitcanned last week after losing to E Michigan…..The program is in a downward trend in terms of direction and talent and things are made much worse given the relative success of the Arizona Wildcats…Utah is NOT the team you wanna play when you are trying to “find yourself” and they’ve won the L2G by a combined score of 108-14.
Lean – Utah -15.5
42. Kansas -7 Duke (64.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -8
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Kansas -8.7
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 35.75 Duke 28.75
Yes, guy…..YOUR Kansas Jayhawks are off to a rousing 3-0 start and have booked back-to-back road wins over West Virginia and Houston….Duke is also sitting at 3-0 but have played Temple, Northwestern, and NC A&T…..Both teams have dynamic QBs….Duke has more to prove and hit the HIGHWAY before ACC play begins next week….Will side with the home team at a reasonable numbers for small taters.
Lean – Kansas -7
43. Appalachian St -7 James Madison (58.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -10
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Appalachian St -10.7
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 32.75 James Madison 25.75
This is our PEE INTO THE WIND game of the week….The “numbers” say to take the home fav in this one but the situation is optimal for the underdog….App St has played in a decade’s worth of emotional games and it’s only September….Their D is also semi-trash….James Madison is a bit of an unknown emerging from the depths of the FCS but they’re off a bye and have a red-hot QB….Didn’t get a great number but if you believe in SWEET SHARP ACTION, James Madison and ULM appear to be worth a sprinkle…..we passed on ULM (for now)…..will nibble on James Madison **.
Lean – James Madison +7
44. Northwestern -7.5 Miami Ohio (50) ……MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -9.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Northwestern -9.9
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 28.75 Miami Ohio 21.25
Tough game to call….There appears to be a bit of value with the Cats but they’ve dropped back-to-back games (Duke, S Illinois) and have a Big Ten match-up on deck (Penn St)….Would want double-digits to play a MAC team here especially a mid-pack one with their back-up QB…..Looks like fav or pass.
45. Ole Miss -21.5 Tulsa (65.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Ole Miss -21.9
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 43.5 Tulsa 22
Tough game to play….Number looks about right….Ole Miss has rolled thru their soft schedule….Tulsa has SCORED the FOOTBALL o’plenty but haven’t played much defense….Note that Ole Miss has 13 sacks in 3G whilst Tulsa has allowed 10 sacks so far….Rebels have Kentucky on deck.
46. South Alabama -13 Louisiana Tech (60) ……MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – South Alabama -11.1
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 36.5 Louisiana 23.5
The Jags are in fine form right now and a tough fade…..They smoked a solid FIRE UP CHIPS squad in week two and almost SHOCKED the WORLD last week at UCLA (L 32-31)….Louisiana Tech is trying to find their stride under new HC Sonny Cumbie but if nothing else they can SCORE the FOOTBALL….Line looks about right.
47. Oklahoma -12.5 Kansas St (53.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -14
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Oklahoma -13.1
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 33 Kansas St 20.5
It won’t be a popular opinion (who knows?) but as noted on the AWARD-WINNING SportsXRadio show with Ken Thomson (see Blog) we are very impressed with the Sooners’ defense and are skeptical that Kansas St can get much going on offense….They are well coached and solid on defense and special teams but we’ll sprinkle on the fav.
Lean – Oklahoma -12.5
48. TCU -2 SMU (71) ……MEGALOCKS line – TCU -3.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TCU -2.4
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 36.5 SMU 34.5
Gonna roll with the road fav in the WE HATE OUR FORMER HEAD COACH game of the week….HC Sonny Dykes did some good work with SMU but is now with the HORNY TOADS who’ve looked good vs a pair of scrubs so far (Col St, Tarleton St)….The run game is solid, we’re higher than most on QB Max Duggan, and the D looks improved….SMU dropped a game vs Maryland last week and it doesn’t get any easier this time around….Maryland found a way to rush for over 200 yards last week vs SMU and that’s not a good sign with TCU coming to town…..Potential to upgrade this BAD BOY to official status, yo.
Official play – TCU -2 -105 <sent 1:19pm Sept 23>
49. Minnesota -3 Michigan St (50.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Michigan St -1.4
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 26.75 Michigan 23.75
Interesting to see the Gophers as favorites in this match-up and there’s many a debate and fistfight over those who make power ratings……Sparty comes back home after getting smoked by Washington whilst Minnesota sits at 3-0 after disposing of three scrubs by a combined score of 149-17 (!) ….Michigan St does a good job stopping the run and Minnesota lost #1 WR Chris Autman-Ball for the season…..The Gophers are 7-1 ATS L8 vs Mich St…..Feels like a close one-score game.
Lean – Michigan St +3
50. Georgia Southern -9.5 Ball St (67.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -9.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Georgia Southern -8.1
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 38.5 Ball St 29
The Eagles suffered a bit of a letdown last week vs UAB after taking down CORN in week two but they outgained the Blazers in that event….(-3) in t/o margin was a killer….Ball St is the worst team in the MAC West and don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Eagles….Former Buffalo Kyle Vantrease has been chucking it around and they’ve got a pair of solid RBs….AND they move ROCKET FAST…..Both teams have conference play on deck
Lean – Georgia Southern -9.5
51. USC -5.5 Oregon St (70.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – USC -6
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – USC -4.6
Vegas Implied Score – USC 38 Oregon St 32.5
Yes, guy……This just might be the best game of the day as a pair of undefeated PAC 12 teams go head-to-head in Corvalis where the Beavers have won and covered 8 (!) consecutive games….and recall that they smoked USC in the Coliseum LY (W 45-27)…..USC is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense and are absolutely loaded at the skill positions…..We don’t know much about their defense tho as they’ve looked MEH vs an easy-to-medium difficulty schedule…..Also note that USC is an impossible +10 in t/o margin (#1 FBS)….Oregon St doesn’t have the weapons to win a crazy shootout so they need to grind things out and shorten the game with the rushing attack and crafty play on 3rd downs….The Beavers secondary (#24 pass eff D) will definitely be tested in this one…..Like the home dog to give the Trojans a good game but the line is a bit short for our tastes….will keep an eye on this BAD BOY and see if it creeps up to 6/6.5 Friday (doubt it, but not impossible).
52. Toledo -3 San Diego St (45) ……MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Toledo -1.2
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 24 San Diego St 21
Yup, you read this correctly, a MAC team is favored AT San Diego St…..It kinda makes sense tho as Toledo is the best team on paper in the MAC despite getting CREMATED by Ohio St last week whilst San Diego St might have their worst team since the Nixon Administration ** ….It’s still a tough deal to travel out there tho and note that the Rockets have a yuuuuge date with Central Michigan on deck.
** fact check: totally possible, yo
53. Oregon -7 Washington St (57) ……MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -7
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Oregon -8.8
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 32 Washington St 25
QUACK QUACK, buh buh….Oregon has snapped back nicely after getting rolled by Georgia by winning their last two games by a combined score of 111-34…..the last victory over BYU was particularly impressive (W 41-20) but now they have to go on the road to a tough venue where a scrappy opponent awaits…..The COOGS are a perfect 3-0 and took down the mighty Wisconsin Badgers on the road in week two…..They’ve also tallied 15 sacks in 3G…..Oregon’s history in Pullman isn’t very appealing to look at.
Lean – Washington St +7
54. California -3 Arizona (50) ……MEGALOCKS line – California -3
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – California -3.2
Vegas Implied Score – California 26.5 Arizona 23.5
The market threw cold water on a potential Arizona play as the line quickly moved from the -5 range to a reasonable -3 marker….Arizona is one of the most improved teams in the country and already have a road win under their belt (SD St) but their D still leaves a bit to be desired….Cal plays much better D but are at best a mid-level grinding offense….Cal is a disgusting 3-12-1 ATS as home chalk under HC Wilcox.
55. Washington -13.5 Stanford (63.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Washington -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Washington -12.9
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 38.5 Stanford 25
The Huskies showed that they are INDEED a legit player in the PAC 12 by smoking Michigan St last week….It looks like the market has caught up with the vast improvement they’ve made compared to LY and don’t see much value in the number…..Stanford can move the ball but their D is trash and they’ll be missing #1 RB EJ Smith.
56. Marshall 3.5 Troy (51.5) ……MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Marshall -5.1
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 27.5 Troy 24
We had this game circled as a potential PLAY ON spot for Troy as we think they are an underrated bunch……PROBLEM……How do they respond after blowing the game at App St…..HAIL MARY time, yo…..Marshall is the better squad and have booked a win over ND….Tough call at this market price.
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.
18 thoughts on “Week 4 Quick Takes – College Football Predictions (56 games)”
Think that over hits w AF .. should be gashin all day on them and man they got gashed up the middle pretty good last week .. that is a soft belly they got now since the big dude left there and Nevada might actually land a few shots .. think the wolfpack D is gunna be total dog sh!t this week .. 49-17 ..
Look at that Wisco injury list its been steady building since pre-ssn and man like half the roster been in/out mostly out lol .. daddy’s home .. total ass wippin comin ..
man o man someone call a hitman on whoever is making this CFB schedule … think Iowa Rutgers might be 4th most exciting game this week .. 30 games 2 TD favs or more .. most are way more .. zzz ..
Ya dood not 100% sure but prob 99% haaaaaa that Ohio St THROW GAME gets super hot and your boy Mertz might revert back to his crappy tendencies
Pretty ugly card like you said, even for betting not finding much but still some work to do!
yuup … and even the goodies I was waiting on .. ULM to 9 .. puke .. S.Miss I’m on it but was really wanting like the 2 TD+ .. never had a chance .. feel like both of those are either there or not though .. like its under a TD or 3 TD loss ..
Lib QB maybe out .. hit under initially 57.5 thought 49-7 seemed sorta unlikely .. still 54 w K-Salt doubtful .. I mean if Akorn had a pulse I’d have been all over them in this spot just seems like a real downer .. the 3rd QB might actually not be that bad he was #2 after Brewery Boy went down, maybe it is Brewer no idea .. just seems like a good week to find out who all yer backups are ..
La Tech / SO.Bama .. 400 points .. could be 386-14 but nature finds a way to the over in this one .. kinda lean so.bam tech D looked real easy but idk McNeill looks like he can backdoor with the best of em .. Tech offense maybe a bit dangerous like what I saw from them so far ..
Hit wash/stan over 58.5 .. took another pinch over 62.5 .. maybe their Run D went from 130 to top 20 totally McStuffin Mich state .. funny feeling Sparty just not as good there anymore and boy did they figure out the key to scoring on the huskies wayyy too late .. really need Stan to not be running the ball if down big hit em +14 for a little bit too ..
WASH STATE BABY GO COOGS CONF CHAMPS 150-1 LET’S GO …. lol we’ll see .. actually looks like we got a cannonball run straight to the conf champ game lotta diff characters vying now and besides buffs anyone can turn into a stumbling block just about ..
Arkansas rollllllz .. AM doesn’t git to scoring quick they get rolled up .. waiting for your take on that one but did take over 48 on a whim for smallest pinch .. if its 24-7 think its AM with the 7 but ark D can def be had .. we’ll see ..
G.SO /Ball St .. projected 4000 yards of offense .. 61 when it came out hit it there .. inching toward 70 now ..
Penn State couldn’t run on Purdue but they can run all over Auburn .. maybe Purdue run D good? .. did hold cuse down too .. I just have trouble buying that still .. somehow they’re better losing guys up front idk could be .. think Auburn is just in some kinda trouble .. Mizzoo lookin like the grimm reaper for Harsin I think .. how in the world anyone laying a TD w those turds .. think players even happy to move on .. also finley maybe out this week ..
WYO .. ML/Under 51.5 .. bridge special .. got a few of those for monster boring week ..
Ok Old dom .. this time im serious if you don’t score 28 points this week you lose this one FOR SURE YOU SORRY SACKS OF S#!& ..
Feels like a terrible spot for Ville .. Lole injured other guys banged up I think .. same for FSU the list is getting long now .. I mean does BC not get pressure w out those top FSU DL’s or at least guy have enough time to complete a pass?.. idk this feels like they’re lucky to be playing at home maybe saves em .. think its blowout win or maybe close game in that one ..
GL with the Wyoming bridge special ML/under….Pokes looked like their old selves last week….Should have a Hogs/AM write-up by early afternoon can’t find a reason to like A&M but who knows….My boy EJ “fumble” Smith out for Stanford like their QB but that D stinks think you are right the over looks solid….Liberty getting smoked with QB injuries argh thank god it’s Akron who might be 2 TD worse than UMass
No idea if Salt is injured he did play the whole way .. Brewer maybe back if so I think they got 3 QB’s to keep happy there .. would say if Salt has a hangnail you can just practice him and prob everyone else this week .. Akron like division 5 at this point .. and like 45 returning starters back .. don’t get it .. maybe BIG SURPRISE for lib this week lololz .. maybe a real ‘wtf is going on out there, K-Salt quit goofing around clip your goddamn nails and get your azz in there you pansy ass punk’ kinda game ..
“Are you HURT or are you INJURED?”
Feels like if ASU has one bullet to fire its on offense .. defense stiiiinks .. Utes are gunna carve them up like turkey .. hit over 53 but idk we’ll see this new decision maker can’t come out playing lame football and that can only mean let the offense try to rip it here .. maybe close game they play small ball but man if nobody smiling at a 14-24 loss .. maybe get a few in a 31-41 loss .. what a collapse lol .. #URBAN2TEMPE!!!! ..
Then again thought that last week and it worked .. for one drive .. I heard on gameday he was the first certain sorta looking coach in nebraska history .. and predictably end up thinking venables for getting me a tie there …. holy crap fire the backup HC huskers … #HUUSKERDON’T!!!!!!
Not sure about the Arizona St situation and where their heads are at but Utah is a baaaaad team to play when your heads aren’t right, yo
Yeah you know ASU brass was sitting around like we can get the ‘win one for herm’ game at home vs Utah .. we’ll be geniuses lol .. dude ASU’s D is not good EMU ran all over em with a backup QB and their RB just shreddin em .. add on that Devils on the suspect secondary list pre-ssn .. think we can move them off the suspect list and onto the sh!thouse secondary list .. think Utah 31 minimum here .. that’s only if they’re up big and grinding the clock out otherwise dude total hayday .. suppose a major letdown for utes / play up for ASU maybe puts them in a spot to maybe keep it a one score game .. seems like a drubbin is a commin ..
Will haskell QB#2 leaves SDSU, think he and Burmeister got hurt last game too .. .. portal .. couldn’t handle it anymore … Crum QB3 last man standing .. whatever is going on there …. its not good .. think toledo not a great spot here but this is one you can get some payback for some of those OSU drubbins last week ..
CO.State dante wrigth alredy left team .. think #2 WR just said he couldn’t take it anymore .. can’t get drafted when highlight reel is a polaroid .. underdogs to sac state lol .. dude they got serious problems .. heard there was some kerfuffle with Coach bringing all his guys in and obvi favoring them .. and sounds like they aren’t happy either lol .. sounds like they’re gunna find out just how deep that abyss goes lol .. wowzerz .. maybe they can get lyn j dixon to turn the season around lol ..
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Lyn-J-Dixon makes another appearance I think he’s in the portal again
SDSU might really stink
Welp … guess we found out why GA State was 0-3 before they were 0-4 ..
Nice pick on WV .. man if VT stinks that bad then BC must be super garbage ..
ya dood that panthers D stinkkkkkzzzz
thanks, WV and my boy Donaldson lets gooooooo
Dude Donaldson total beast .. and there’s 2 other pretty good ones there but yeah that OL makes any seam and they’re all finding and busting thru … CJD doesn’t need a seam, makes his own … VT without penalties maybe actually coulda kinda sorta made it more interesting .. 15 for 132 multiple drive extenders .. that roughing the passer call i mean just make it 2 hand or 1 hand touch for QB’s already ..
Actually wondering now if Kansas’ D is really THAT bad I thought that was gunna button up a little better this year w a few good DB portalers .. they didn’t get gashed much by the WV’s RB’s like 4/carry 146 yds nothing over 10 yds, Houston did okay too but they stifled more than half their drives and put 4 sacks and 6 TFL’s on em .. good QB’s hitting 70% is still a problem .. Does look like Riley Leonard could be pretty good haven’t really seen much duke action, maybe they just ripped a couple crappy D’s so far?.. man big home game in lawrence lol … ‘crowd will .. def be there’ lol .. probably rockin too if they remember how ..
Donaldson Heisman a locccckkkk love the way he runs high like old school Eric Dickerson (before your time) and he’s also pretty tough…..Hard to fathom playing Kansas -7 but they’ve been tested and Duke hasnt so will roll with some small taters on ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK baby!
BC under 6.5 wins has to be GOLD, Jerry!!