Kansas at Texas
posted Sept 28
The Game
Yes, guy.
We’ve got a pair of 4-0 teams going head-to-head on Saturday afternoon as Kansas takes on the Longhorns in Austin, Texas. The Jayhawks have been SCORING the FOOTBALL and boast wins over Illinois and BYU on their docket whilst Texas has one of the best wins in the country on their resume after taking down ROLL TIDE on the road.
This is a yuuuge game in the Big 12. Let’s goooooo!
The Details
Texas -16.5 Kansas (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas -14
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas 38.75 Kansas 22.25
Texas offense vs Kansas defense
The Longhorns have been just fine on offense but maybe not as explosive as we thought they’d be heading into the season. They rank #4 in the Big 12 in YPP offense, #9 rushing and #5 thru the air. They’ve got all the talent in the world tho as QB Quinn Ewers has a sparkling 9-0 TD to INT mark (9.2 YPA), RB Jonathon Brooks is well on his way to a 1,000-yard campaign (379, 5.8, 3 TD), and the WR/TE group is one of the best in the nation. Note that TE Ja’Tavion Sanders leads the team in receiving yards (268, 22.3) and he’s a match-up nightmare. The Kansas defense has some holes (allowed 17,23,24,27 points so far) but they’re MUCH improved from LY’s stop unit. The Jayhawks rank #6 in the conference in YPP D (dead last in 2022) and they’re doing a much better job of achieving PENETRATION (#2 TFL/game, dead last in 2022). Texas will get their yards and points but it won’t be easy getting to the implied team total unless the game moves at a very fast pace.
Kansas offense vs Texas defense
The Jayhawks are averaging 38 PPG and they’re doing it with a balanced and efficient offense (#2 Big 12 YPP offense, #2 rush, #2 pass efficiency, #2 TFLA/game). QB Jalon Daniels has done a fine job (75%, 5-1 TD to INT, 9.4 YPA), they’ve got a pair (!) of RBs averaging around 7 YPC in Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr, and Daniels takes care to distribute the ball liberally amongst the talented weaponry in the THROW GAME (WR/TE/RB). Texas has been solid across the board on defense (#3 YPP) and they’ve got a lot of talented doods. Kansas has one of the more difficult offenses to defend in the nation based on the quality of QB play, overall experience level, and the excellent play-calling which keeps teams off balance. They’ll be opportunities for Kansas to get points but it’s reasonable to expect a few moments where they appear stuck in the mud due to the strong Longhorns D.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Texas has won 17 of the last 19 meetings between these two teams but Kansas is a different program now and note that they beat the Longhorns on this field back in 2021 in a wild 57-56 OT thriller……The intrepid Marc Lawrence reminds us that Texas is 0-7 ATS L7 as conference home favorites of 10+ points and they’re on a 2-9 ATS run when playing at home before their yuuuuge game with Oklahoma…..Kansas HC Lance Leipold has done a phenomenal job so far in Lawrence but he’s just 4-8 ATS as a road dog with Kansas……The weather forecast looks fine as we approach game day.
Summary
This looks like a few too many points to be giving a very talented Kansas team who’s boasts one of the most dangerous offenses in the Big 12 and a defense that’s much improved over what we saw in 2022.
Conclusion
Lean – Kansas + the points. It’s currently at +16.5. We’ll advise once we get down on some SWEET ACTION. It may go to +17, it may go towards +15.5/+16. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
UPDATE – forgot to get back on this +16/16.5 split market right now – We’ll grade a small play lean at +16.
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.