Louisville at NC State (Friday)
posted Sept 28
The Game
Don’t look now but LUA-VUH is one of two teams in the ACC (Florida St) that are sitting at 2-0 on top of the conference standings early in the season. They’ve taken down Georgia Tech and Boston College and now head on the road for their first true road game. NC State needed a small handful of SIMPLE JACK moments from the scrubs known as Virginia to escape with a win last week and now take the role as home underdog on Friday night.
The Details
Louisville -3.5 NC State (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisville -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisville 29.5 NC State 26
Louisville offense vs NC State defense
New HC Jeff Brohm has this offense COOKING right now as the Cardinals rank #2 in the ACC in YPP, #1 on the ground, and #1 thru the air (!). QB Jack Plummer is averaging an impossible 11.5 YPA and boasts a 10-4 TD to INT ratio whilst the ground game is churning out 6.0 YPC in the early going. NC State hasn’t been the same on defense this season (#11 ACC YPP) particularly vs the THROW game as they rate a disappointing #11 in the conference in pass efficiency D after LEADING the way in 2022 at #1 (15-19 TD to INT). That haven’t been special creating negative plays either so we expect LUA-VUH to score 28+ in this contest.
NC State offense vs Louisville defense
It’s been all QB Brennan Armstrong so far as he leads the team in rushing by a wide margin and he’s doing his best in the THROW GAME despite having very limited offensive weaponry (60%, 5-4 TD to INT). The Pack are dead last in the ACC in plays of 30+ yards (5) so we don’t think they’ll be able to take advantage of an average LUA-VUH stop unit. The Cardinals have been a bit better vs the run (#5) than vs the pass (#10 pass eff D) so maybe Armstrong can have his best passing performance of the season with the backing of the home crowd?
Trends, Intangibles and More!
NC State HC Dave Doeren is 8-11 ATS as a home dog with the Pack and that includes a week two pasting at the hands of Notre Dame……The weather forecast looks great as we approach press time…..The market consensus on the number of times we hear the announcers refer to the Cardinals as “LUA-VUH” currently features an over/under total of 356.5…..SHARP ACTION is on the ‘over’.
Summary
NC State is gonna have trouble SCORING the FOOTBALL without the help of turnovers and LUA-VUH will likely make too many big plays for the Pack to handle.
Conclusion
Lean – Louisville -3 -117 <note: several offshore shops are offering -3 -115 to -3 -120 and we even see a rogue -3 -110 out there. Don’t play it higher than -3 -120. If you can’t find a -120 then we suggest waiting and hoping for a flat -3 (50/50 shot?) or just taking the -3.5 now. Either way this will be a small play/lean this week.
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.