Week 5 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
NOTE – National Championship futures (2) added on blog page for those interested.
Handy index: Quick Takes (official plays in blue; leans/small plays in green)
Changes to the card can be made until 6pm Friday. Timestamps will be included as well as blue or green guidance.
- MTSU at Western Kentucky (Thursday)
- USC at Colorado
- Oregon at Stanford
- Charlotte at SMU
- Washington at Arizona
- Arizona St at California
- Jacksonville St at Sam Houston (Thursday)
- UAB at Tulane
- Louisiana Tech at UTEP (Friday)
- Missouri at Vanderbilt
- ROLL TIDE at Mississippi St
- Florida at Kentucky
- Arkansas St at UMass
- Bowling Green at Georgia Tech
- Louisiana at Minnesota
- Baylor at UCF
- Houston at Texas Tech
- East Carolina at Rice
- Utah St at UConn
- Appalachian St at ULM
- Miami Ohio at Kent St
- Buffalo at Akron
- Ball St at Western Michigan
- Northern Illinois at Toledo
- Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
- Temple at Tulsa (Thursday)
- Utah at Oregon St (Friday)
- Michigan at Nebraska
- Penn St at Northwestern
- Illinois at Purdue
- Indiana at Maryland
- Michigan St at Iowa
- Hawaii at UNLV
- Nevada at Fresno St
- New Mexico at Wyoming
- South Alabama at James Madison
- San Diego St at Air Force
- USF at Navy
- Old Dominion at Marshall
- West Virginia at TCU
- Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern
- Troy at Georgia St
- Notre Dame at Duke
- LSU at Ole Miss
- Cincinnati at BYU (Friday)
- Georgia at Auburn
- Virginia at Boston College
- Clemson at Syracuse
- Texas A&M at Arkansas
- Boise St at Memphis
- Iowa St at Oklahoma
- Texas St at Southern Miss
- South Carolina at Tennessee
QUICK TAKES
1. Western Kentucky -7 MTSU (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -7
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 34 MTSU 26
It’s time for the 100 MILES OF HATE game and this year the TOPPERS get the home field advantage…..They’ve won the last four meetings between these two squads but haven’t looked like themselves this season….The offense isn’t as explosive as LY and the defense is HOT TRASH (last C-USA YPP D)…..The good news is that the MTSU pass D has been awful (last C-USA pass efficiency D) so this is probably the worst match-up for them….WKU is +5 in t/o….MTSU (-1).
No leanage
2. USC -22.5 Colorado (73.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -21
Vegas Implied Score – USC 48 Colorado 25.5
The Trojans are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense as they rank #1 in the nation in scoring offense (55 PPG)(!), #34 rushing, and #3 passing….It seems as tho they’re getting bored with the early season CREAM PUFF schedule given the lackluster effort they put up vs Arizona St which is a bit concerning…..Now they’ve got play their best opponent so far who’s off an embarrassing DRILLING at the hands of Oregon……Line looks a bit rich but who USC has a massive talent edge and should be able to score all day…..How will the D perform??? That’s the question.
No leanage
3. Oregon -27 Stanford (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -23.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 44 Stanford 17
WHOA NELLIE…..Those Ducks took it PERSONAL and beat the living souls out of Colorado (W 42-6)…..The defense is playing lights out and BO NIX SEASON IS IN FULL EFFECT…..They’ve got a bye on deck so it’s not like it’s a lookahead spot but like we said last week about Stanford….it’s hard to know how bad they are…..and they showed some life in their last contest losing by a single point to a decent Arizona team.
No leanage
4. SMU -22.5 Charlotte (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -21
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 39.5 Charlotte 17
The FIGHTING BIFF POGGIS played a decent game at Florida and kept the score respectable (L 22-7) and now they get to face one of the premier teams in the AAC…..SMU couldn’t make it very interesting vs TCU but now they get back in a weight class they can handle with ease……They handled Louisiana Tech and the thing known as Prairie View with ease but we don’t appear to be getting any line value with the Mustangs.
No leanage
5. Washington -17.5 Arizona (70.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -16
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 44 Arizona 26.5
We’re pleased to have passed on betting against Washington last week as they scored what seemed like a billion points vs Cal……Impossible to fade them right now even tho Arizona had a heck of a time getting past Stanford…..A little bit tempted to take the fav but wouldn’t lay more than -14.
No leanage
6. California -12 Arizona St (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – California -13
Vegas Implied Score – California 31.25 Arizona St 19.25
UPDATE
Arizona St is down to their 3rd string QB who’s been playing hurt and the Sun Devils are playing their first road game of the season. They’ve allowed 13 sacks in the last two games due to a cluster of injuries on the OL. Cal put up 58 points and 669 yards vs North Texas, lost to Auburn at home but won the yardage battle, put up over 500Y vs Washington last week in a bit of a misleading final as Washington scored a pair of non-offensive TDs right out of the gate to lead 14-CACK……The Golden Bears are #1 in the nation in terms of allowing the fewest yards on defense compared to what their opponents gain on average……That nugget per the intrepid Phil Steele (#2 Ohio St, #3 Tulane, #4 Texas A&M, #5 ROLL TIDE)…..Cal not traditionally a great home fav but are 5-4 ATS in that spot L2Y.
Official play added 3:35pm Friday Sept 29. California -12.5 -110
7. Jacksonville St -6.5 Sam Houston (36.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 21.5 Sam Houston 15
EAT EM UP KATS finally got pasted last week (L 38-7 to Houston) and have scored just 10 points in three games…..They’ve played the #6 schedule tho according to Sagarin and still boast the #3 YPP defense in C-USA….Jacksonville St comes in off a shutout win over E Michigan and have been rolling on the ground (#2 C-USA rush off) whilst playing stingy defense (#1 YPP)…..Decent match-up for the KATS as they’ll have a good chance of slowing down a one-dimensional attack…..Rivalry game of sorts as these teams entered the FBS together this season….Feels like fav or pass as were not sure how Sam Houston scores enough points to win…..Was hoping for a lower number but it wasn’t meant to be after last week’s results for both squads….Smells like an under but that’s a tough number to bet ‘under’ in college football…..slightest of leanages that way but haven’t gotten to the window yet……May come back to this game later in the week.
No leanage
8. Tulane -21.5 UAB (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -20
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 39.25 UAB 17.75
The Blazers didn’t look horrible last week as they covered the 40+ spread at Georgia (L 49-21)….They’re scoring points (35,35,21,21) tho and their D is disgusting (49,41,49 vs FBS opponents)….Smells like points whomever happens to be playing QB for the Green Wave……Starter M Pratt was back on the field last week and looked decent…..Tulane should be able to get into the 40s and UAB QB J Zeno is averaging over 300YPG passing.
Lean – Over 57
9. UTEP -1 Louisiana Tech (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 27 Louisiana Tech 26
This could be the end of the line for your boy Dana Dimel who’s booked an 18-44 (!) SU record with MINER NATION…..They sit at 1-4 and theoretically still have a shot to get to the conference title game (0-1 in conf play so far) as there are only two decent teams in the league and they played them both in November….maybe they can improve by then?….They’re 0-4 ATS vs FBS foes and are a shell of their former mediocre selves…….#6 in the conference in YPP off, #8 in YPP D, last in sacks allowed, #7 in pass efficiency, etc….The good news is that Louisiana Tech is coming to town and whilst we believe they’re a bit better than you think the fact remains that they’ve lost an impossible 16 (!) consecutive road games….They’re also comically banged up at RB which is a shame because teams are running thru UTEP’s run defense like MONTEZUMA’S REVENGE…..Was hoping for a +3 but it doesn’t seem like that’s gonna happen.
No leanage
10. Missouri -13.5 Vanderbilt (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -12
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 35 Vanderbilt 21.5
MISSOOORAH is playing good football right now and are a sneaky 4-0 after wins over Kansas St and Memphis…..Vanderbilt is a grease fire but they didn’t play that poorly vs Kentucky last week…..The Cats had a pair of pick 6s……Missouri is the much better squad but they’ve got a yuuuge home date with LSU on deck and HC E Drinkwitz is just 3-12 SU in 15 true road games with the Tigers.
No leanage
11. ROLL TIDE -14.5 Mississippi St (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 31.25 Mississippi St 16.75
ROLL TIDE come into STARKVEGAS off a 2nd half BLUDGEONING of Ole Miss in which they finally looked like WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE…..They’ve still got major issues on the OL and a suspect THROW GAME but the defense looks great and they’ve booked 10 sacks in the L2G….Miss St’s pass defense is as bad as we can ever remember and are currently dead last in the SEC in pass efficiency D….They’re also 2nd last in YPP D, #10 vs the run, and #8 in sacks…..ROLL TIDE has the big road test with Texas A&M next but recall that they’ve won the last five meetings by the scores of 30-6…..49-9…..41-CACK…..38-7…..24-CACK…..The Bulldogs finally decided to use their QB last week and threw for almost 500Y but they haven’t had much luck vs Alabama recently.
Lean – ROLL TIDE -14 -120 <-120 is pretty easy to find, -125 for sure>
12. Kentucky -3 Florida (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 24.75 Florida 21.75
This is one of the more intriguing games of the week as the Gators and Wildcats do battle in Lexington…..Kentucky has looked pretty good (#3 SEC YPP off, #3 YPP D, #1 run D) but note that they’ve played the #164 schedule…..They got all the skill pieces you would want on offense but the OL is still a Q mark……Florida has ran the ball well (#4) and also played well vs the run (#2) but they haven’t had a great deal of success achieving PENETRATION (#13 SEC sacks, #13 TFL/game) so it might be that this is a decent match-up for the Cats…..Kentucky is 5-0-1 ATS L6 vs CHOMP CHOMP but NOW they are in the role of favorite which gives an intangibles edge to Florida…..Was hoping for a pick em but here we are.
No leanage
13. UMass -1 Arkansas St (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – UMass -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – UMass 28 Arkansas St 27
The Minutemen have been a much more competitive team this season but they’ve just encountered a pair of excruciating losses the last two weeks….50 yard bomb and lose to E Michigan by 2…..lose in OT to New Mexico….Arkansas St is in their WEIGHT CLASS and were a dumpster fire until last week’s win over Southern Miss in which their offense woke up…..UMass game totals so far this season 71,74,69,36,65…….Ark St totals 73,40,38,81.
Lean – over 55
14. Georgia Tech -23 Bowling Green (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -21
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 38 Bowling Green 15
You know we love ourselves some SWEET GEORGIA TECH ACTION even tho they gave MEGALOCKS subscribers a WATERBOARD SPECIAL FOR THE AGES vs Ole Miss…..We’ll wait patiently in the weeds as this isn’t the spot laying more than 3 TDs against a team that’s really bad but not really really really bad.
No leanage
15. Minnesota -12.5 Louisiana (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -11
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 30 Louisiana 17.5
In a world that makes sense…..nobody blows a 21 point lead to Northwestern heading into the 4th quarter….sadly….we live in a world where according to “science”, men can get pregnant…..Yes, the Gophers blew a yuuuge lead to the Northwestern Wildcats and now find themselves with a critical Big Ten loss…..Louisiana is playing some scrappy football but we’d want 14+ to hit the road dog.
No leanage
16. UCF -12 Baylor (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -10
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 33.5 Baylor 21.5
YES, GUY……The Knights have their Big 12 home opener at the BOUNCE HOUSE after falling to a tough Kansas St team on the road last week…..Baylor has been a major disappointment but they may get their starting QB back this week which will help a bit…..We had this game circled in the offseason hoping for a line in the -3 range but UCF has looked pretty good whilst Baylor has not……Obviously those dreams of a much lower point spread went up in smoke……..Prefer the home squad but don’t see any value in the line.
No leanage
17. Texas Tech -10 Houston (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 30.75 Houston 20.75
The Red Raiders have been a mediocre bunch this season as their stats across the board are underwhelming (#10 Big 12 YPP offense, #7 rush, #11 pass, #12 run D, last sacks allowed, #10 sacks) and now lay double digits against an in-state rival whilst playing with their back-up QB (B Morton) who’s got limited mobility and accuracy issues so far (43%)…..Houston might have the weakest roster in the Big 12 but they’ve got the much better QB (D Smith, former Red Raider, yo) who’s mobile and boasts three legit WR targets…..and an emerging threat at RB in freshman Parker Jenkins…..COOGS HC D Holgorsen is prone to several SIMPLE JACK moments every quarter so it doesn’t feel great to back Houston but at least he’s shown the ability to cover as a road dog (8-4 ATS with the Cougars)……Both teams are very inconsistent and they played a 2-OT game LY.
Lean – Houston +10
18. Rice -3 East Carolina (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rice -3
Vegas Implied Score – Rice 24.75 East Carolina 21.75
We still need to learn more about both of these teams…..The ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR LET ME FIRE ME CANNON Pirates are in rebuild mode but at least showed a bit of life last week in demolishing FCS foe Gardner Webb by a score of 44-CACK……Rice followed up a pair of wins with a road defeat at the hands of South Florida and that was a game they felt they would win…..Number looks about right.
No leanage
19. Utah St -6 UConn (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 26.25 UConn 20.25
The Huskies get a Utah St team making a big trip after a tough home loss vs James Madison and note that they’ve got Mountain West play on deck (Rams)….UConn is starting to show more cracks than we would like to see after losing their starting QB but to be fair two of their four losses were expected (NC St, Duke)……Slight preference to the home dog but they’ve haven’t played well since the opener.
No leanage
20. Appalachian St -13.5 ULM (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 33.5 ULM 20
The Mountaineers pulled DEFEAT out of the jaws of VICTORY last week in brutal fashion (see Week in Review blog page) and will now hit the road for the 3rd time in four weeks before their bye week….Their the much better team obviously but the situation points to ULM (off bye, App St see above) and App St HC Shawn Clark is 3-9-1 as road chalk whilst ULM HC Terry Bowden is 6-2 as a home dog and that includes a straight up win over Army in week one.
No leanage
21. Miami Ohio -15 Kent St (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -14
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 31.5 Kent St 16.5
Line looks about right…..It’s one of the top-three teams in the MAC vs probably the worst team in the conference….Note tho that the Golden Flashes have been a bit better than we thought all whilst playing the #13 schedule in the nation (Miami Ohio #114)…..Miami may sit star WR Gage Larvadain who’s one of the most explosive players in the Group of Five (438, 24.3, 4 TD) as he’s nursing a minor injury.
No leanage
22. Akron -2.5 Buffalo (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Akron 29 Buffalo 26.5
Those KOOKY Akron Zips blew a great chance to beat a Big Ten team on the road last week as documented in our AWARD-WINNING Week in Review blog…..How do they bounce back off that 4-OT loss?…..Well they’ve played really well vs Temple and Indiana but were also lucky to escape Morgan St…..They’re the hungrier and more balanced team but it’s never easy to lay points with the Zips who haven’t been favored since the CARTER ADMINISTRATION **…..Buffalo is a mess and sitting at 0-4 and are also dying for that first win.
** needs fact check
No leanage
23. Western Michigan pk Ball St (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 26 Ball St 26 (tie game, yo)
We’ll take a sprinkle on the home team that has a few things they do really well…..They’re #2 in the MAC in rushing, #3 in YPC, # in TFLA/game, #4 in sacks, #6 in TFLA per game whilst playing the #19 schedule…..Ball St has played the #24 schedule and don’t really do anything particularly well…..They’ve got a good #1 RB in M Cooper but their top-two receiving options both avg less than 9 yards per catch…..The best offensive player on the field is Broncos’ RB J Buckley (501, 6.2, 4 TD) and the team has to have more spring in their step after giving Toledo all they could handle last week on the road before they SHAT the BED in the 4th quarter.
Lean – Western Michigan pick em
24. Toledo -13 Northern Illinois (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -11
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 31 Northern Illinois 18
The Rockets had a major scare last week at home vs Western Michigan before they rallied yuuuuuge in the 2nd half behind backup QB Tucker Gleason who may get the start this week….Frankly we don’t mind that as he’s a very underrated signal caller….Northern Illinois has been pretty good on defense but their offense has been PURE FILTH…..Not sure what happened to your boy Rocky Lombardi but the Huskies are weak at the QB position….Still no bargain to take Toledo.
No leanage
25. Central Michigan -7.5 Eastern Michigan (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 27.5 Eastern Michigan 20
The Eagles have been fine defending the pass but have been absolutely DISGUSTING on offense……And stopping the run has been a problem as well…..HC Chris Creighton is still rock solid ATS as a road dog (30-14-1) and this is a rivalry game but we really like the way FIRE UP CHIPS are coming together…..Prefer the fav but can’t lay more than a TD.
No leanage
26. Tulsa -3 Temple (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulsa -2
Vegas Implied Score – Tulsa 29 Temple 26
The Golden Hurricane left Dekalb last week with a 22-14 victory over the Huskies and now sit at 2-2 with several winnable games left on the schedule….Temple also boasts a mark of 2-2 with a similar schedule of potential PATSIES waiting in the wings…..The reality is that every other team in the conference views both of these teams as garbage……BUT…..someone in the horrid region of the AAC CONFERENCE MIDSECTION is gonna end in a bowl game…..will it be Tulsa or Temple?…..This win would certainly help both of their chances…..Not sure what to make of Tulsa yet but Temple definitely looks worse than we thought….especially at OL and DL……Tough call at this price point.
No leanage
27. Oregon St -3.5 Utah (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 24 Utah 20.5
It continues to be tough to get SWEET ACTION down on Utah games until we see starting QB C Rising get into the starting lineup….Our best guess is that he sits out one more game given that the Utes have a bye week coming up…..Oregon St is 14-1 SU L15 at home and we’ll see if the line comes back to -3 and decide if we wanna get involved for a small nibble…..Note that Utah’s offense is horrid right now but the D is playing lights out…..#3 in the nation in run D, #6 in scoring D, #9 in total D despite playing UCLA, Florida, and Baylor.
No leanage
28. Michigan -17 Nebraska (39)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -16
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 28 Nebraska 11
Don’t look now but CORN is #1 in the Big Ten in rushing and YPC (5.5) and they’ve also been great vs the run….#1 in the Big Ten whilst not allowing any opponent to rush for over 60 (!) yards yet….Michigan’s rushing attack has been ok (#6) but LY’s key weapon D Edwards needs to be put on a MILK CARTON….The Wolverines have been doing a lot of their best work thru the air (#1 Big Ten pass efficiency) and that’s a good match-up for them given that the Huskers have been relatively weak on the back end….Prefer the dog but CORN is gonna have a really hard time creating explosive plays…..They’re down to one decent RB (A Grant) and the tough running of QB H Haarberg (272, 6.5, #1 rusher)…..It’s gonna be a grind…..May come back to this BAD BOY later in the week……Michigan won LY 34-3 at home….2YA it was a BARN BURNER (32-29 Michigan in Lincoln).
No leanage
29. Penn St -27 Northwestern (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -24.5
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 36.5 Northwestern 9.5
Another game we need to do a wee bit more work on……Favor the dog as they have been cooking at bit in the THROW GAME under QB Ben Bryant (804, 59%, 6-3 TD to INT) and RB Cam Porter is averaging 4.1 yards per carry (203)…..The line appears to be a touch high which makes sense after Penn St held Iowa to just 76 (!) yards in prime time last week….Penn St leads the nation in turnover margin (+11), have allowed just 2 sacks, and they’re #1 in the Big Ten in pass efficiency D (51%, 1-5 TD to INT) which is a bad match-up for the Wildcats.
No leanage
30. Purdue pk Illinois (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Purdue -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 26.5 Illinois 26.5
These might be the two most unreliable teams in the DUMPSTER JUICE that is the Big Ten West…..Both teams have their moments on offense and have sketchy defenses…..Note that Illinois QB Luke Altmyer has a “sparkling” 4-7 TD to INT mark so far……Purdue’s QB Hudson Card has thrown it a lot but has a mediocre 3-3 TD to INT ratio….Truly a toss-up and a game we’re gonna stay away from this week.
No leanage
31. Maryland -14.5 Indiana (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -13
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 32.5 Indiana 18
Indiana had impressed us just a bit so far, particularly on defense…..and the QB position was coming around…..They laid a massive egg vs Akron last week but it was a tricky sandwich spot…..Their pass D ranks #4 in the Big Ten (1-6 TD to INT) which makes us believe that FEAR THE TURTLE won’t be able to rip them to shreds thru the air….Maryland has Ohio St on deck and laying more than 14 feels a bit pricey.
No leanage
32. Iowa -12.5 Michigan St (36.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 24.5 Michigan St 12
It’s very tough to back SPARTY…..a team in total disarray that’s scored just 16 points in their L2G but note that they outgained Maryland last week but were (-4) in turnovers….Their D has played well in every game other than the Washington debacle….Iowa had well under 100 yards of offense last week, they’re last in the Big Ten in YPP offense, #11 in rushing, #13 in passing, #10 in run D, and last in sacks…..SOOOOOO…..No way you can lay it with Iowa….Feels like dog or pass and just hope that Michigan St has some ounce of pride in that locker room….Gonna see if we can grab a +13 and waif for a bit.
No leanage
33. UNLV -11 Hawaii (60)………..MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 35.5 Hawaii 24.5
WHOA, NELLIE…..The Rebels sit at 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road at the BIG HOUSE……They’ve scored 40+ in all three wins and will be able to get well into the 30s in this one….The D hasn’t been great and Hawaii can sling it around…..They squeaked out a win over New Mexico St last week and didn’t play that well but laying double digits with UNLV isn’t our cup of tea at the moment.
No leanage
34. Fresno St -24.5 Nevada (49.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 37 Nevada 12.5
A few too many points for the Bulldogs but if you GOTTA play it you GOTTA lay it…..Fresno St QB M Keene is off to a hot start and they just scored a FITTTY BURGER on Kent St…..Nevada is #130 in the nation in pass efficiency D…..They only lost to Texas St by 11 last week but they had 2 def TD and led 17-CACK at half.
No leanage
35. Wyoming -14 New Mexico (42)………..MEGALOCKS line – Wyoming -13
Vegas Implied Score – Wyoming 28 New Mexico 14
Wyoming has played the MUCH tougher schedule (#20 vs #172) but this is a team that plays to the level of their competition…..They beat a garbage Portland St team by 14 whilst barely outgaining them and App St more than DOUBLED the Pokes’ total yards last week but still found a way to lose (see Week in Review blog)……New Mexico has a solid QB in D Hopkins (59%, 6-2 TD to INT) and a pair of dangerous RBs….Wyoming’s offense is #123 in the country and #124 thru the air….That’s the best way to attack New Mexico…..Conference game…..Two teams that hate each other….The Lobos should be able to score enough to keep it within a pair of scores.
Lean – New Mexico +14
36. James Madison -3 South Alabama (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 26.5 South Alabama 23.5
We’ve been disappointed overall with the way the Jags have started the season but NOW the real games begin for them as it’s FUN BELT time…..That’s been their number one goal all along and they did show their potential by slaughtering Oklahoma St on the road a few weeks ago…..James Madison is off three straight road games and have a horrible pass defense….Can the Jags take advantage???…..Line looks about right…..If it goes back to +3.5/+4 we’ll take another look, yo.
No leanage
37. Air Force -10.5 San Diego St (43)………..MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 26.75 San Diego St 16.25
The Falcons have played a soft schedule but have been moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on the ground averaging 341 (!) YPG….That’s bad news for an Aztecs defense that couldn’t tackle last week and has allowed 254,191,241 to opposing ground attacks in the L3G…..Spread is a bit rich but we think Air Force can get over their implied team total.
Lean – Air Force TT over 26.5 <note, you can find 26.5s up to -121 at prominent shops; 27 is out there, 27.5 with + juice is also an option; we like all of those but always post TT plays based on the implied total unless it’s an official play>
38. Navy -3.5 USF (54.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Navy -5
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 29 USF 25.5
The Bulls have been better than expected thanks in large part to the play of dual-threat QB Byrum Brown (57% 6-3 TD to INT, 357 rush, 5 TD) but the defense is still a work in progress and it’ll be tough to beat a Navy team off a bye who almost took down Memphis….Navy is always more trustworthy as an underdog and USF is a LOOSE CANNON.
No leanage
39. Marshall -14.5 Old Dominion (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -14
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 30.5 Old Dominion 16
The Monarchs are another team that’s played better than we thought and Marshall doesn’t have much of an offense…..The line looks about right and note that this is a bit of a sandwich spot (Va Tech last week, NC St and conference play on deck)…..Prefer the dog but was hoping for a number close to +17.5 and here we are.
No leanage
40. TCU -12 West Virginia (52)………..MEGALOCKS line – TCU -10
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 32 West Virginia 20
The Mountaineers are coming off a pair of tough home wins over Pitt and Texas Tech and now hit the road to take on a TCU squad that’s on quite a roll since their week one loss at the hands of PRIME TIME and the Buffaloes…..The WV D has been playing good ball (17,6,13 L3G) but TCU is a much different animal than the L3 opponents…Tough to make a call without knowing the status of starting QB G Greene (we prefer, not likely to go) and RB CJ Donaldson.
No leanage
41. Pittsburgh -2.5 Virginia Tech (39.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 21 Virginia Tech 18.5
Not a game we’ll get involved in……The Panthers are a HOT MESS and the Hokies are struggling on offense without QB Grant Wells…..ya….he’s not great but at least he could throw the ball…..Pitt is 8-0 ATS as road chalk since the start of the 2021 season but they aren’t very trustworthy right now.
No leanage
42. Georgia Southern -6.5 Coastal Carolina (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 34.5 Coastal Carolina 28
This is a yuuuge game in the Sun Belt East particularly for Coastal Carolina who were upset at home last week by the EMERGING JABBAWOCKEE that is the Georgia St Panthers……Coastal still has an elite QB and good weapons on offense but the defense leaves a bit to be desired…..The Eagles have been ripped teams apart with the THROW GAME but note that their three wins came against turds (The Citadel, UAB, Ball St)…..Last stand for the CHANTS and it’s highly likely they show up with a good effort….Will it be enough to cover?? Hard to say.
No leanage
43. Georgia St -1 Troy (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 25.75 Troy 24.75
We’ll roll with the home team in this FUN BELT game for a few key reasons……1) The Panthers just might have the best player in the conference in QB Darren Grainger who hasn’t thrown an INT yet in 105 attempts (70%, 7-0 TD to INT, 9.5 YPA) and he’s also got phenomenal mobility (263, 3 TD) which will give the Troy defense lots of problems as they haven’t been creating negative plays (#13 Sun Belt in sacks, #9 TFL/game)…..Grainger should have lots of time to DO WHAT HE DOES…..2) Troy is (-6) in t/o margin and have been ‘negative’ in every game…..Georgia St is +5 in t/o and #2 in the conference in sacks…..Troy is 2nd worst in the conference in sacks allowed and TFLA/game so it seems as tho the Panthers should win the turnover battle and/or negative play battle……3) The Panthers are a team on the rise and playing their best football….just beat Coastal Carolina handily on the road…..Troy is good especially on D but a notch down from LY……4) Troy HC Jon Sumrall is 9-1 SU at home, 4-3 in true road games…..5) Troy QB Gunnar Watson has zero mobility and a 22-15 TD to INT mark L2Y.
Official play – Georgia St -1 -104 <sent Sept 28 2:28pm> <note….you can find Georgia St ML from -110 to -120 so that’s another option for those that agree with our opinion>
44. Notre Dame -5.5 Duke (52.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -7
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 29 Duke 23.5
We won’t revisit the HORROR SHOW of last week’s Notre Dame/Ohio St ending but feel free to take another read of our AWARD-WINNING Week in Review blog page if you need a reminder…..The good news for Notre Dame is that they showed they can dominate the line of scrimmage in the 2nd half of football games against REALLY good teams…..We’re still not sure about the ability of the offense to make big plays tho……..Duke has been playing excellent football and whilst the narrative is that they were fortunate to beat Duke keep in mind that the final score was 28-6 (yards 422-374 Clemson) so enough already….They’ve got one of the best QBs in the nation in Riley Leonard and are incredibly well coached….This line just feels a bit short even tho the spot is terrible for the Irish.
No leanage
45. LSU -2.5 Ole Miss (67.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – LSU -3
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 35 Ole Miss 32.5
We’ve spent a lot of time on this BAD BOY and it just feels like we are spinning our wheels at this point…..We lined it LSU -3 with a total around 64/65 so don’t have a strong opinion after a bunch of digging…..LSU’s THROW GAME is gonna do some damage vs Ole Miss there’s no doubt about that…..but as we noted last week in our LSU/WOO PIG analysis….That LSU defense has some issues especially in the secondary……Ole Miss is off a disappointing loss to ROLL TIDE and their season lies in the balance….Gotta win or they’re done in the SEC West……LSU could afford a loss as long at they beat ROLL TIDE but that would mean two losses and NATTY hopes potentially down the drain…..Wish the Ole Miss ground game was clicking but it ain’t, yo.
No leanage
46. Cincinnati -1 BYU (49)……….MEGALOCKS line – BYU -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 25 BYU 24
These are two teams that need further examination before we can take a stand on their quality…..but it should be noted that the mobsters must have had a dood hiding under the massage table in the training room because the Bearcats have taken some STEEEEM…..BYU had two stinkers, beat WOO PIG whilst getting significantly outgained and then played very well at Kansas…..Cincinnati went toe to toe with Oklahoma and didn’t embarrass themselves but have been a bit inconsistent…..We think Cincy is the better team……ALTITUDE GUY will probably roll with the Cougars.
No leanage
47. Georgia -14.5 Auburn (45.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -16
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 30 Auburn 15.5
The Dawgs got a scare vs the COCKS in week 3 (won 24-14) and despite not looking “great” by their standards…..they’ve still outscored their opposition 166-45 and just might be getting a few key pieces back this week….They’ve won the last three meetings 42-10, 34-10, 27-6…..Auburn’s offense is complete TRASH and they’ve got nothing at QB or at WR….The defense is pretty solid and it’s a rivalry game so maybe they can hang around for a while…Georgia may start out slow but we expect them to grind and grind until the margin is over the number.
Lean – Georgia -14 -115 (note there are a few -14 -110s out there at prominent books so shop around)
48. Boston College -3.5 Virginia (53.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -5
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 28.5 Virginia 25
The Cavs lost a heartbreaker last Friday night despite outgaining NC St 384-319…..Freshman QB A Colandrea has impressed us this season…..yes…..he makes too many mistakes but he also makes more big plays than something called Tony Muskett who apparently may get the start this week….Nothing would surprise us from HC Tony Elliott who’s now ranked #11,345 on the list of football HCs in the United States…BC’s defense is awful but they’ve got a rising star at QB in Thomas Castellanos who almost engineered a win over the Noles…..Will wait and see if a -3 pops up but we doubt it….prefer the home team but passing for now.
No leanage
49. Texas A&M -6 Arkansas (54)……….MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -6
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 30 Arkansas 24
This line looks spot on as the Aggies will be just fine on offense without starting QB C Weigman who’s OFY……Max Johnson has plenty of experience with maybe not the sparkling potential at this point…..WOO PIG lost a tough one on the road vs LSU last week on a last second FG…..How will they respond?…..They may get ace RB R Sanders back in the mix which would be yuuuge…..Note the game is at a neutral site in Arlington…..These meetings have been decided by 2,10,11,4,7 L5Y.
No leanage
50. Clemson -6.5 Syracuse (53)……….MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -7
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 29.75 Syracuse 23.25
Tough game to call…..We still believe that Clemson is the better team as Syracuse has played a collection of MISFIT TOYS so far with a schedule that ranks #149 according to Sagarin (Tigers #59)……Clemson woulda shoulda coulda beat Duke and Florida St but ultimately SHAT the BED…..The big unknown is how Clemson will react to their season being “over” after losing a pair of games…Playoff?….HE GONE…..ACC title?…..HE GONE….Neither team has the kind of offensive weapons that strike a ton of fear into the opposition……The Orange have covered 5L6 vs Clemson and almost beat them in Death Valley LY……Logic says Syracuse….gut says Clemson…..ARGH.
No leanage
51. Memphis -3 Boise St (59)……….MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 31 Boise St 28
This is a very interesting match-up of solid G5 teams that takes place a bit later in the year than you would usually see….Memphis has a bye on deck before getting deep into AAC play….Their “quality win” is a squeaker over Navy but they gave MiZZOUURAH a good battle last week….Boise St definitely looks down a notch but are tough fade in any situation…..They continue Mountain West play next week vs San Jose St….Prefer the home team due to the weird travel spot for the Broncos and we don’t love their THROW GAME but haven’t visited the window yet.
No leanage
52. Oklahoma -20 Iowa St (48)……….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 34 Iowa St 14
This looks like a few too many points as Iowa St changed up the offense last week and actually MOVED the ball thru the air (348 pass yards) for the first time since the invention of the STEAM ENGINE **…..Oklahoma’s D has been impressive so far but note that the offense only scored 28 vs SMU and 20 vs Cincinnati…..The last six meetings between these two squad over the L5Y have been decided by 14,7,6,7,1,10……Sooners have failed to cover the last four years in the game before Texas.
** needs fact check
Lean – Iowa St +20
UPDATE 12:23pm Friday – Official play Iowa St +20 -108
53. Texas St -5.5 Southern Miss (60.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 33 Southern Miss 27.5
We’ve gotta go with the road team in this one as the BOBS have been devastating on offense so far…..42 vs Baylor…..77 vs something known as Jackson St…..35 vs Nevada…..They rank #18 in the nation in rushing offense and #40 thru the air….QB TJ Finley has an 8-1 TD to INT mark and their top-three rushers (including Finley) are averaging an impossible 11.1, 13.3, 9.5 (!) YPC…..Southern Miss is a HOT MESS on offense but the D is decent albeit down a notch…..It all points to a Texas St team that can SCORE the FOOTBALL but run hot and cold at times……The only worrisome factor is the old BOOGEYMAN theory of Southern Miss as a “mad home dog needing a win”.
Lean – Texas St -5.5
54. Tennessee -12 South Carolina (63)……….MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -10
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 37.5 South Carolina 25.5
The COCKS are an inconsistent bunch and definitely have a license to hang around given the way that QB S Rattler is playing this season (74%, 7-2 TD to INT) BUT we still can’t get past the fact that they rank dead last in the SEC in rushing, TFLA, and YPP defense…..oh and #13 in pass efficiency D which isn’t great vs a Vols THROW GAME that woke up a bit last week…..Line looks a bit high but note this is a legit revenge spot for Tennessee as they were POLEAXED by the COCKS last season (L 63-38) in a historical beatdown……Mixed signals.
No leanage
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.