Alabama at Texas A&M
posted October 5
The Game
We should be in for a treat on Saturday afternoon when the TIDE rolls into College Station to battle Texas A&M. The Aggies dropped a game to YOUR Miami Hurricanes in week 2 (L 48-33) but have won every other game on the schedule including two SEC battles (Auburn, WOO PIG). ROLL TIDE also dropped their 2nd game (Texas) and have tasted victory in every other contest. They also boast a 2-0 mark in SEC play (Ole Miss, Miss St).
There’s a lot on the line, BAYBEE.
The Details
Alabama -1.5 Texas A&M (45.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 23.5 Texas A&M 22
Texas A&M offense vs Alabama defense
The Aggies have been better on offense this season but are still nothing special (#6 SEC rush, #9 pass efficiency). They’re gonna need to be at their best this week vs a ROLL TIDE stop unit that’s improving every week (#5 run D, #2 pass efficiency D) and really getting after the QB (14 sacks L3G). Texas A&M will be led by backup QB Max Johnson who’s more than capable of leading the attack but he’s been known to turn over the ball more than you’d like with both interceptions and fumbles. We expect Texas A&M to be able to run just enough to be able to achieve some balance and the key will be finding some chunk plays in the THROW GAME with their fine set of WRs. ROLL TIDE has been excellent the last two weeks vs the pass including a master class vs the Rebels’ fine QB J Dart.
Alabama offense vs Texas A&M defense
ROLL TIDE has looked like a functional offense the last two weeks as they’ve taken on the identity of a solid rushing attack. Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams have emerged as a solid 1-2 combo at RB and QB Jalen Milroe is able to be a dangerous ground weapon when called upon. The THROW GAME is still very much a work in progress but they’ve shown the ability to hit the deep ball. Eight players have caught a pass of 20 yards or longer and four of those doods have a TD reception of over 30 yards. Texas A&M has been stingy on D for the majority of the season other than when Miami ripped them up for over 40 points. Thankfully, the Aggies will not have to deal with an excellent/elite passing QB in this contest. The big concern for ROLL TIDE has to be a Texas A&M pass rush that’s bagged 14 sacks L2G and note that Alabama has allowed at least four sacks in each of their last four games.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Texas A&M has won just two of nine SEC meetings between these two teams but the last two games have been thrillers…..Alabama won 24-20 in Tuscaloosa last year and don’t forget that the Aggies beat Alabama on this field back in 2021 (W 41-38)…..The weather forecast looks perfect as we approach press time…..ROLL TIDE has played the #7 schedule according to Sagarin….Texas A&M #49.
Summary
We’ll “ROLL” with the team with the better defense (slight edge), better rushing attack (decent edge if you include the QB), and a more trustworthy head coach. Alabama is more battle-tested with games vs Texas and Ole Miss and the price is very short compared to recent meetings.
Conclusion
Lean – ROLL TIDE ML -120 <note you can find as low as -116 at one major offshore shop; -120/-122 is pretty easy to find so shop around; laying -1.5 at normal pricing is also fine in our opinion>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.