Oklahoma vs Texas
posted October 5
The Game
Yes, guy.
This game has yuuuge Big 12 and National Championship implications and is almost always one of the most exciting games of the college football season. Texas has the best “quality win” of any team in the nation after taking down ROLL TIDE on their home field in week 2 (W 34-24) and sit with a mark of 5-0. Oklahoma hasn’t defeated any world-beaters but they’ve outscored the opposition to the tune of 237-54 (!). The Sooners also proudly display a perfect mark of 5-0.
Let’s gooooooo!
The Details
Texas -6.5 Oklahoma (60.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 33.5 Texas 27
Texas offense vs Oklahoma defense
The Longhorns have been balanced (#6 Big 12 rush, #4 pass) and fairly effective as they’ve managed to score 30+ in every game including their trip to Tuscaloosa. QB Quinn Ewers has proven he can win a big game and has been very efficient (10-1 TD to INT, 9.2 YPA) and he’s got a BEVY of THROW GAME targets to utilize at WR/TE/RB. Keep an eye on the status of star TE Ja’Tavion Sanders as he is a devastating receiving threat and is listed as questionable as we approach press time. Oklahoma’s defense is one of the most improved units in the nation (#1 Big 12 YPP defense, #4 rush D, #1 pass efficiency D) but this will be their toughest test of the season. The good news is that they haven’t allowed more than 20 points to anybody and they held a very good SMU offense to 11 points. The Sooners have done a good job of creating negative plays (#2 Big 12 TFL/game) but it’ll greatly improve their chances if they can find a way to get Ewers on the ground (#10 Big 12 sacks).
Oklahoma offense vs Texas defense
The Sooners have been moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE thru the air (#7 FBS passing offense) thanks to the stellar play of QB Dillon Gabriel (75%, 15-2 TD to INT) and he’ll be the first one to seriously challenge the Texas secondary who’s played a ho-hum bunch of passing QBs including the backup vs Kansas last week who struggled to complete a forward pass. The Sooners have a small handful of doods that can hit the big play and the crafty Drake Stoops does enough to move the chains (25 receptions, 8.1 YPC). The rushing attack has been a disappointment (#9 Big 12) and they’ve gotta find a way to do something on the ground even if it means using Gabriel (underrated runner) once in a while. Texas has been stellar against a mediocre set of offenses but numbers are the numbers. HOOK EM is #2 in the Big 12 in YPP D, #2 in run D and pass efficiency D, and #3 in sacks. Gabriel has only been sacked four times in 157 attempts so if he can continue to get the ball out quickly the offense should be able to move the ball consistently.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The Red River SHOOTOUT *** has been a close game for most of recent history until last season’s DEBACLE when Texas drilled the Sooners 49-CACK as Oklahoma struggled with an inexperienced backup QB……The weather forecast looks ideal for football.
*** HA HA …..we still call it the SHOOTOUT like the good old days…..Not the Showdown, or Tickle Party, or Diversity Day Extravaganza or whatever they’re calling it now…..SHOOTOUT!! GUNS GUNS GUNS……PEW PEW…..RAT A TAT TAT <reloads>…..RAT A TAT TAT……PEW PEW.
Summary
We’ve got a sneaky suspicion that this will be a one-score game and prefer to take the points.
Conclusion
Lean – Oklahoma +6.5 <note: we’ll wait to see if a +7 pops up between now and dinner time on Friday; If not we’ll play +6.5; if it drops to +6 then that’s fine as well; We’ll keep you posted>
UPDATE – speak of the DEVIL and he shall APPEAR…..Mob steam taking this down to +6 with a rogue +5.5 out there. We’ll take the +6 and use that for grading purposes.
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.