Week 6 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
Official picks in blue. Leans/Small plays in green.
- Arkansas St at Troy
- Texas St at Louisiana
- Toledo at UMass
- South Alabama at ULM
- Old Dominion at Southern Miss
- Arizona at USC
- UConn at Rice
- Kent St at Ohio
- Vanderbilt at Florida
- Sam Houston at Liberty (Thursday)
- Georgia Tech at Miami
- Wake Forest at Clemson
- Ball St at Eastern Michigan
- Central Michigan at Buffalo
- Bowling Green at Miami Ohio
- Virginia Tech at Florida St
- Jacksonville St at MTSU (Wednesday) (update Friday 3:10pm)
- Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech (Thursday)
- FIU at New Mexico St (Wednesday)
- Kansas St at Oklahoma St (Friday)
- CORN at Illinois (Friday)
- Colorado at Arizona St
- Texas Tech at Baylor
- Rutgers at Wisconsin
- Purdue at Iowa
- Michigan at Minnesota
- TCU at Iowa St
- Colorado St at Utah St
- Notre Dame at Louisville
- USF at UAB
- Western Michigan at Mississippi St
- Maryland at Ohio St
- LSU at Missouri
- Boston College at Army
- UCF at Kansas
- Tulsa at Florida Atlantic
- Marshall at NC State
- Kentucky at Georgia
- Washington St at UCLA
- Northern Illinois at Akron
- Syracuse at North Carolina
- North Texas at Navy
- WOO PIG at Ole Miss
- Fresno St at Wyoming
- San Jose St at Boise St
- Oregon St at California
- UTSA at Temple
QUICK TAKES
1. Troy -17 Arkansas St (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Troy -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 35 Arkansas St 18
WHOA NELLIE……Whomever had “Arkansas St wins three consecutive games” on their 2023 BINGO CARD, come on down!! You are a winner along with the guy that had “Sheeple line up for more death boosters”…….The Red Wolves offense has been fantastic since they made a switch at QB and it also helped that the schedule got way easier….The D is still a massive issue as they’ve allowed 73,37,37,28 vs FBS teams…..Troy booked an impressive road win over Georgia St last week and it playing as well as anyone in the FUN BELT right now not named JAMES MADISON…..Price isn’t cheap to back them tho and road team is 7-3 ATS L10 in the series.
No leanage
2. Louisiana -1 Texas St (67)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -3
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 34 Texas St 33
HEY NOW…..here come some points, yo….Texas St has been fun to watch (#1 Sun Belt YPP, #2 pass, #4 rush) but they’ve gone thru several stretches of BLAH including a scoreless first half vs Nevada and a 26-8 drubbing the 2nd half last week vs Southern Miss…..Louisiana has been average on defense but have done a good job with sacks (#2 Sun Belt) and the Bobcats have allowed the 2nd most sacks in the conference….Louisiana is another team looking a lot better since a QB switch and Zeon Criss has been dynamic (68%, 4-4 TD to INT, 8.0; 260 rush, 9.3!)…..RB J Kibodi is averaging 9.3 YPC (4 TD)…..Texas St’s #1 RB I Mahdi is averaging 9.8 YPC (488 yds) and QB TJ Finley has a great 10-1 TD to INT mark…..Overall we prefer the consistency of the Cajuns and they’re a bit more reliable on D…..Fun fact…..Cajuns are 10-0 SU vs the Bobcats (9-1 ATS).
Lean – Louisiana ML -115
3. Toledo -19 UMass (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 39 UMass 20
Not a game we’re gonna get involved with…..Toledo won a big MAC game last week (NIU) and have another conference game on deck…..UMass is an improved bunch on offense by a mile but the defense is PURE FILTH.
No leanage
4. South Alabama -12 ULM (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -11
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 32 ULM 20
The Jags have played a tough schedule (#65) for a Sun Belt team but they don’t look great……#9 Sun Belt YPP, #10 rush, #9 pass, #13 pass efficiency D, #12 sacks allowed…….What they have done pretty well tho is stop the run and that is pretty much all the Warhawks can do (#2 rush, last pass)……The Warhawks D is also pretty crappy but they did take App St to the wall last week (L 41-40) losing on a last play 54-yard FG…..See our AWARD-WINNING Week in Review blog post…….ULM is 6-2 ATS as a home dog under HC T Bowden but can they rebound off last week’s heartbreaker?….Will the real South Alabama team show up like they did at Oklahoma St?……Fun fact…..Jags are 0-4 SU at ULM and are playing their 3rd road game in four weeks…..Prefer the dog but would want +14 to get interested.
No leanage
5. Southern Miss -1.5 Old Dominion (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Southern Miss 30 Old Dominion 28.5
The Monarchs have been better than expected this year and they’ve played Louisiana, Marshall, and Wake Forest very tough….They just rushed for over 300 yards vs Marshall but rank 2nd last in the conference in passing and last in sacks allowed……Their D is #3 in the BELT in YPP……Southern Miss has lost four straight and whilst they didn’t quit last week vs Texas St their defense continued to struggle (last Sun Belt YPP)…..Last stand for the Golden Eagles if they have any prayer of going bowling and they get the game at home…..ODU is the better team but not 100% trustworthy was hoping to see a +4 or so but haaaaaa nope…..Gonna pass but Monarchs on the short list for ML underdogs on Friday.
No leanage
6. USC -21.5 Arizona (72.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – USC 47.5 Arizona 26
The Cats put up a feisty performance vs the mighty Washington Huskies last week (L 31-24) but they were outgained 474-342 and played with their backup QB which they may have to do again…..Fifita wasn’t bad but they could use the experience of starter J De Laura…..USC is back at home after going thru the motions vs Arizona St and Colorado BUT note that they still managed to score 90 points in those 2G……56,66,56,42,48 in 5G and QB C Williams has an impossible 21-1 TD to INT mark…..Not gonna play the “how many points will USC win by game” this week…….Note that the Trojans have the Irish up next.
No leanage
7. Rice -9.5 UConn (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rice -8
Vegas Implied Score – Rice 30 UConn 20.5
Too many points for us to lay with a mid-range AAC team that was significantly outgained by East Carolina at home last game and there’s no way we can touch your boys from Connecticut who suffered a brutal home loss last week to Utah St in a game they had to have.
No leanage
8. Ohio -26 Kent St (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -24
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 36 Kent St 10
Ohio might be the CLASS of the MAC right now and they get to punish a turd this week…..The Ohio offense hasn’t been nearly as deadly as LY but the D has been excellent…..Kent hasn’t scored more than 10 points vs any FBS foe (4 games) but they’ve played the toughest schedule in the conference according to Sagarin (#42)….Ohio looks good at -21 and Kent St looks good at +28.5 but here we are.
No leanage
9. Florida -18 Vanderbilt (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida -17
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 36 Vanderbilt 18
Tough to back the Gators in this spot as they’ve only scored 36 points in their L2G including 22 vs Charlotte and they’re in a nasty SANDWICH spot (off Kentucky, COCKS next)…..Vanderbilt is doing VANDERBILT things and might be able to hang around for a bit but note that Florida is well aware that the Commodores beat them LY.
No leanage
10. Liberty -18.5 Sam Houston (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -17
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 32.5 Sam Houston 14
We were very much hoping for a number in the -14 range but it just wasn’t meant to be……Liberty looks like the best team in the Sun Belt and whilst Sam Houston found some offense last week (that’s good) they’ll be DEAD MEAT if they try and go tempo and FREAKY FREAKY ALL NIGHT LONG vs Liberty…..That’s the game they wanna play…..Too many points but prefer the Flames and don’t hate the ‘over’ but haven’t gotten to the window yet as it’s quite possible that Sam Houston reverts to scoring less than 10 points…..and their D is still good.
No leanage
11. Miami -20.5 Georgia Tech (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -18
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 39.5 Georgia Tech 19
YOUR Miami Hurricanes come in HOT and HEAVY off a bye week and they’re definitely looking worthy of an ACC Championship Game berth (we KNOW you LOVE that) but there’s lots of football left to be played….We were a bit higher than market on the Yellow Jackets until last when they SHAT the BED vs Bowling Green and were dominated by a lowly MAC school….Line still looks a bit rich but it’s fav or pass.
No leanage
12. Clemson -21 Wake Forest (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 37 Wake Forest 16
We were THIS close to adding Clemson to our AWARD-WINNING LEANS LIST last week but failed to pull the trigger…..maybe it was because everyone was telling us that Syracuse was the best team of all-time (after Colorado) ?……Clemson isn’t super explosive but their balanced on offense and very solid on D…..This looks to be the weakest team in recent years in Winston-Salem but having said that the line looks a bit high.
No leanage
13. Eastern Michigan -2 Ball St (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -3
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 23.5 Ball St 21.5
Impossible to feel good about either side in this BAD BOY……Eastern Michigan was LIVE last week in a rivalry game and now their season looks like it might be GLUG GLUG GLUG even tho they’ve played the #147 schedule….Ball St is DUMPSTER JUICE but they’ve played the #47 schedule and are pretty similar across the board compared to the Eastern Michigan……Feels like a tossup, yo
No leanage
14. Central Michigan -3 Buffalo (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -3
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 30 Buffalo 27
FIRE UP CHIPS come into town to grab some tasty BUFFALO WINGS and hopefully bag a conference win….They slithered past Eastern Michigan last week and just might be the 2nd best team in the division (Toledo)……They’ve run the ball well but the defense has been trash (last MAC YPP, 2nd worst pass efficiency D)……Buffalo couldn’t move the ball vs the solid Akron D (#2 MAC YPP) but managed to weasel an OT win to keep their season hopes alive….yes sir….1-4 but 1-0 in MACtion…..The only thing they’ve really managed to do well from time to time is throw the ball and that’s good news facing FIRE UP CHIPS (12-1 TD to INT)…..Central Michigan is the better overall team but we expect another close one…..LY 31-27 CM in Mount Pleasant.
No leanage
15. Miami Ohio -10.5 Bowling Green (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -9
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 29.25 Bowling Green 18.75
WHAT the WHAT?…..Bowling Green pulled off a yuuuge upset at Georgia Tech last week and there was nothing fluky about it…..They’ve got a balanced offense and veteran QB that’s healthy again (C Bazelak)…..The D has been good vs the run but they’re last in the MAC in pass eff D which ain’t great playing the Redhawks and QB B Gabbert who didn’t play vs BG in their loss to the Falcons LY….Miami may get star WR G Larvadain back which would be great news…..Miami’s run game has been mediocre other than the blowout win over FCS turd Delaware St….466Y, averaged 98 YPG the other four games…..BG has played the #45 schedule and Miami Ohio #156……Falcons have the ability to keep it within the number as they managed to hold Michigan to 312Y and Ohio to 328Y……The Intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that the outright winner in this series has covered an impossible 19 (!) consecutive games……Fav 11 times, 8 outright dog wins…..Not sure what that means in terms of this game but maybe BG can SHOCK the WORLD?…..Temps look cool and there will be medium winds….10% or so chance of showers…..that’s the best weather info we have at press time.
Lean – Bowling Green +10.5
16. Florida St -24 Virginia Tech (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -21.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 38.5 Virginia Tech 14.5
The Hokies finally showed a bit of life with backup QB K Drones last week but they’ll still very limited on offense in terms of explosiveness….The Noles were outgained by both BC and Clemson before their bye week but still sit at 4-0 and in great shape in the ACC….The line looks a wee bit high but when these guys get rolling it can be scary…..beat LSU by 21, Southern Miss by 53…..HC Mike Norvell not great ATS as home chalk with Florida St (6-8 ATS) but he’s 1-0 this year and note this is just Florida St’s 2nd true home game…..Feels like a get right spot but price too high.
No leanage
17. MTSU -3.5 Jacksonville St (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – MTSU -4
Vegas Implied Score – MTSU 27 Jacksonville St 23.5
The COCKS have done a fine job in year one in the FBS ranks but their four victories have come vs a bunch of CREAMPUFFS…..UTEP, E Tenn St, E Michigan, Sam Houston and they’ve played one of the weakest schedules in the FBS (#163 per Sagarin)….They’re one-dimensional on offense with a solid rushing attack but they did show a bit of life in the THROW GAME vs Sam Houston last week…..Unfortunately their D allowed Sam Houston to score 28 points (10 total points previous 3G) so the fact that their D is rated #1 in the conference in YPP might be a bit of a mirage (also the schedule)……MTSU’s stop unit has been hit hard vs the pass but they do a decent job vs the run….Their stats are a bit misleading having played at ROLL TIDE, at Missouri (played very well) and at WKU…..Desperation mode for the home team who’s used to seeing bowl season (1-4)…..2nd straight road game for Jacksonville St……Prefer the home team but the line is inching down towards -3 so we’ll wait and see if this BAD BOY comes down to a flat -3…..Expect a pick of some kind (lean) on this game before Wed mid-afternoon.
No leanage (for now – see above)
Update – Lean MTSU -3 (3s across the board as of Friday 3pm)
18. Western Kentucky -6 Louisiana Tech (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 32.75 Louisiana Tech 26.75
This should be a fun matchup with two contenders in the C-USA race…..The TOPPERS took care of MTSU in impressive fashion and the THROW GAME looks pretty good although a notch down from LY…….LT has played two decent passing attacks and they couldn’t do much to slow things down (SMU, North Texas) so that match-up doesn’t look good for the home team…..The good news for the Bulldogs is that they have the better D and the run game has been ok despite a cluster of injuries……Prefer the home team but would want to get +7.
No leanage
19. New Mexico St -6.5 FIU (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico St -7
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 28 FIU 21.5
We’ll take a small taste of the home squad in this one…..Both teams have played similar schedules in terms of difficulty but the Aggies have shown more potential (#1 C-USA YPP offense) behind their dynamic QB D Pavia….(10-4 TD to INT, #1 rusher)…and they haven’t had a chance to get rolling yet….They’re coming off three straight road games….Liberty didn’t blast them like did to FIU…..they beat New Mexico…..and blew a big lead at Hawaii and lost by 3 points…..Other than the North Texas game FIU has scored 17,14,24,6 points…..Panthers might be ready for a wee bit of a downturn…..Aggies remember LY’s loss to FIU and can they get revenge?….Fun fact….this is New Mexico St’s first ever Wed night game.
Lean – New Mexico St -6.5 <note you can still find the odd rogue -6 and/or -6 -115 but the consensus is -6.5>
20. Kansas St -11.5 Oklahoma St (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 33.5 Oklahoma St 22
Both teams come in off a bye and the Wildcats still appear to be one of the top teams in the Big 12…..When we last saw them they were ripping UCF to shreds…..The Pokes have been extremely inconsistent and rank last in the conference in YPP offense and #11 in YPP defense….Kansas St is 10-4 ATS L14 vs the Pokes…..Favor the road team but not crazy about laying more than 10 points.
No leanage
21. Illinois -3.5 CORN (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 23.5 CORN 20
We’ll roll with the road doggie in this one…..They’ve got the #1 rush offense in the Big Ten (209 YPG) and note that Illinois has the worst run D in the conference (180 YPG)…….CORN also has a very strong rush defense (#3) and that means that struggling QB L Altmyer will have to do some heavy lifting (65%, 5-7 TD to INT, 18 sacks)………Nebraska HC Matt Rhule is an ATS machine (58-37 ATS career, 61%, 2-3 this season).
Lean – CORN +3.5
22. Colorado -4.5 Arizona St (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -6
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 32.5 Arizona St 28
The Buffs take a yuuuuge drop in class after facing Oregon and USC in back-to-back weeks whilst allowing 90 points in the process…..They’re still good enough to do damage on offense but they’ve allowed 42/35/42/48 in four of their games and Arizona St really got cooking in the THROW GAME last week vs Cal who has a much better defense than Colorado……Arizona St is a puzzler and not a big fan of laying points on the road with a team that hasn’t been in that point spread role as of yet.
No leanage
23. Baylor pk Texas Tech (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -1
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 29 Texas Tech 29
We’ve got a battle between two of the unpredictable teams in the MEDIOCRE MIDSECTION of the Big 12……..Texas Tech hung with Oregon (different starting QB) but lost to Wyoming and West Virginia…..Baylor lost to Texas St (looks better now) but almost took down Utah (with their backup QB)……confused yet?……Baylor’s defense is pretty awful but the Red Raiders have been up and down on offense…….Feels like a tossup and here we are, yo.
No leanage
24. Wisconsin -14 Rutgers (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -14
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 29.25 Rutgers 15.25
This line looks about right…..We’ve got the fair number at -14 and recall that Michigan was -24 at home to Rutgers and it was a push (31-7)…..Michigan might be more than 10 points better than the Badgers on a neutral field but the concept here is that the number looks pretty close to reality…..The Badgers haven’t impressed but we don’t think we’ve seen the best of them yet and Rutgers feasted on four turds at home.
No leanage
25. Iowa -2.5 Purdue (38.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 20.5 Purdue 18
IOWA did IOWA things last week vs Michigan St and turned a tie game late in the 4Q into a ten-point win thanks to a long PR TD and a fumble recovery…..They’ll be rolling with a backup QB in this one after the injury to starter C McNamara and it appears as tho the DEACON HILL ERA has begun in Iowa City for the time being….He can’t be any worse than McNamara or can he?….Tough to say….Purdue doesn’t play much defense which is a problem and they aren’t catching enough points to generate any interest for us even tho they’ve been better than we thought they’d be overall…..Note the visiting team is on an 11-1 ATS run.
No leanage
26. Michigan -19 Minnesota (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 32.5 Minnesota 13.5
The Wolverines continue their TOUR OF THE TURDS as they battle Minnesota this Saturday…..Could this be the best team Michigan has faced this season?? That’s not saying much but nonetheless you can’t deny that they’re taking care of business having not allowed more than 7 points in any of their five games…..The rushing attack has been decent, QB JJ McCarthy has been excellent….Minnesota has three wins but nothing special to talk about and recall they blew a 21 point lead to Northwestern…..The Gophers D has taken a major step backwards this season as they’re ranked last in the Big Ten in YPP D (#6 LY; #9 FBS total defense) and THE GREEK ROCKET is struggling at QB (59%, 5-4 TD to INT, 6.2 YPA)…..They’ve rushed for 200+ in three games but how much success are they gonna have vs the Wolverines?…..Michigan has won 17 straight in Minnesota (6-1 L7 ATS) but also be aware that Michigan covered the spread for the first time last week thanks in large part due to (SHOCKER) Nebraska miscues…..Line is in no man’s land right now.
No leanage
27. TCU -6.5 Iowa St (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -7
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 29.5 Iowa St 23
Yet another pair of frustratingly inconsistent squads inhabiting the DISGUSTING yet INTRIGUING midsection of the Big 12…..Iowa St has lost their minds the last two games and started ripping the football around….They’ve done a better job with the THROW GAME but the faster pace means more snaps for the defense…..a stop unit that used to be good….but we’re not so sure after the L2G….TCU’s D may be the hidden gem in this one as since the Colorado game they haven’t allowed a single (!) TD pass or any team to achieve more than 50% completions……The Horned Frogs offense has been down a clear notch from LY (#5 rush, #5 pass efficiency, 2nd last TFLA/game).
No leanage
28. Colorado St -2 Utah St (65)………..MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 33.5 Utah St 31.5
Gotta roll with the hot road team that’s been really good on offense since the insertion of B Fowler-Nicolosi at QB (11-7 TD to INT, 9.6) and he’s only been sacked four times in 142 attempts…..Utah St only has seven sacks in 5G (#10 Mtn West) and their defense is generally bad vs the run and the pass….They may also be without starting QB McCae Hillstead (50/50 – in concussion protocol) and they’re making a long trip back from Connecticut…..Rams have covered 5L6 meetings.
Lean – Colorado St -2
UPDATE per Friday email 5:02pm
Colroado St -3 -105
Rot #371, 8pm Sat
-3 -100 to -3 -108 is widely available; best prices are at the major offshore books.
NOTE – we posted this game as a small play/lean at Colorado St -2 earlier in the week. This will be an “official” pick for the week at -3-105. We’ll grade it as such. We still like it there and as an “official” pick it is still a top play in our opinion. If you want to add to the Colorado St -2 position with a bit of -3 action that’s for you to decide. Please see the Week 5 in Review blog page for guidance in terms of wager size for “official”/big plays vs the small plays/leans.
29. Notre Dame -6 Louisville (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -7
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 30 Louisville 24
Notre Dame is coming off a pair of emotional games and incredible endings…..one which went against them in grueling fashion….and one that was a WATERBOARD SPECIAL for Duke +5.5 backers….The Irish also put up 45 points on a very good NC St defense and QB Sam Hartman has an impossible 14-0 TD to INT mark…..This is probably the worst “spot” imaginable as they not only have to be emotionally SPENT but they’ve got to hit the road to play an undefeated LUA-VUH team and they’ve got USC on deck…..LUA-VUH has played a much easier schedule (#100 per Sagarin) and they didn’t look very smooth on offense to say the least last week vs NC State…..Line looks a bit short (just like last week) but we haven’t gotten to the window yet….It’s a situational nightmare but ND just might be good enough to get past that obstacle.
No leanage
30. USF -3.5 UAB (68.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USF -5
Vegas Implied Score – USF 36 UAB 32.5
The Blazers are definitely a work-in-progress under your boy Trent Dilfer and they’ve lost four games in a row…..It should be pointed out tho that they gave Tulane all they could handle last week and covered easily vs Georgia in week four….The Bulls have looked great on offense behind QB Byrum Brown (9-3 TD to INT, 330 rush, 5 TD) but the defense is still trash…..That tells us UAB QB Jacob Zeno should have some fun (76%, 8-4 TD to INT)…..Blazers D stinks worse than what USF puts on the field…..Numbers say USF by 5 or more but UAB just might be perky as a home dog that’s improving?…..tough call, yo.
No leanage
31. Mississippi St -20.5 Western Michigan (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 38.5 Western Michigan 18
Tempted to believe that the Bulldogs can dominate a lower level MAC school…..they most surely can…..but this game pops up in a nasty ROLL TIDE / WOO PIG sandwich….Their offense has been off and on but the defense has been garbage most of the season…..Major drop in class obviously but the Broncos are coming around a bit…..Had a double digit lead at Toledo (!) two weeks ago before falling apart in the 4Q and they blew out Ball St last week whilst scoring in the 40s…..Still prefer the fav a bit but will pass for now.
No leanage
32. Ohio St -20 Maryland (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 38.5 Maryland 18.5
FEAR THE TURTLE are off to a sparkling 5-0 start but this will be their first real test of the season after beating five TOMATO CANS…..Mind you….they took care of business by whooping that opposition by a combined score of 193-66 (!)….Their defense appears improved and they’ve got balance on offense…..the problem is of course the excellent Ohio St defense which has allowed 3,7,10,14 in their four wins…….The offense has been inconsistent and is still a work in progress but there’s no doubt they’ve got DOOOOODS.
No leanage
33. LSU -5.5 Missouri (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 35 Missouri 29.5
LSU saw their National Championship hopes go GLUG GLUG GLUG after losing to Ole Miss last week whilst allowing over 700 (!) yards of offense but they’re still alive in the SEC West hunt…..QB Jayden Daniels has been great (16-2 TD to INT, 292 rush) and the WR group is fantastic but can the D get stops??…..Missouri is also getting stellar QB play….Brady Cook has a ridiculous 11-0 TD to INT mark and he’s got a legit #1 RB (C Schrader) and #1 WR (L Burden III) to support his efforts….Was hoping for +7 but the market is very keen on the Tigers…..Considering for the Friday ML underdog list but passing ATS.
No leanage
34. Army -3 Boston College (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Army 26.5 Boston College 23.5
Tough game to call as we’ve got these teams rated even from a PR perspective…..Maybe you give Army 1.5 points for HF?…..A bit of line value with the Eagles but note that Army is off a bye and the home team has won 5 straight meetings between these two teams.
No leanage
35. Kansas -2 UCF (65)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -3
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 33.5 UCF 31.5
Easy game to throw in the trash from a betting perspective……UCF is now 0-2 in Big 12 play after SOMEHOW SOMEWAY blowing a 35-7 lead at home vs Baylor…..check out the game highlights if you can….Kansas might be going with backup QB J Bean and recall that he was the surprise starter last week essentially burying Kansas backers before the game started….UCF is a much easier defense to navigate but not comfortable laying the points without starter J Daniels (currently listed as Q).
No leanage
36. Florida Atlantic -3 Tulsa (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida Atlantic -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida Atlantic 28.75 Tulsa 25.75
The Owls play their first AAC game and come in off a bye….Sadly they need to go with their backup QB D Richardson who is just not a great fit for making big plays…..Tulsa lost to Oklahoma and Washington (duh) but won their other 3G…..They gave up over 9 YPP vs the two big boys but just 3.65, 4.21, 4.77 in the other 3G.
Lean – Florida Atlantic team total under 28.75 (note: the most common number is 28.5; we’ve also seen 27.5 and 29.5). As always, we’ll grade small play/lean TTs at the implied number.
37. NC State -6.5 Marshall (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – NC State -7
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 25.5 Marshall 19
Not a game we’re crazy about…..Would like the under in the 47 range but it wasn’t meant to be….Marshall is a one-dimensional offense but it’s a good one (rushing)……Their D is a rock vs the pass but very susceptible to the run…..ODU rushed for well over 300Y (!) against them last week….NC State makes a switch at QB but they’ve got no serious weaponry at WR or RB.
No leanage
38. Georgia -14.5 Kentucky (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -13
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 31 Kentucky 16.5
There’s definitely some “value” with the dog at this price but this is a match-up that favors the Dawgs in some respects….most notably they won’t be burned by the QB run…..and in a MEAT GRINDER game you’ve gotta take Georgia or pass….The better value might be in the team total UNDER for Georgia….The Cats don’t give up the explosive play…..only ONE of 40+ all season (T4 FBS) and the Georgia ground game is MEH…..On the flipside…..Kentucky QB D Leary (who we generally like) has been very inaccurate and he may be without WR B Brown who’s one of his best weapons…..In any event, they’ll focus on getting the ground game going with Ray Davis and this ain’t last year’s Georgia D so they should be able to do a little bit.
Lean – Georgia team total under 31
UPDATE – per Friday email 5:42pm
Georgia Team Total under 31.5 -125
Rot #330, 7pm Sat
31.5 -125 to -31.5 -130 is widely available where team totals are offered.
NOTE – we posted this game as a small play/lean earlier in the week. This will be an “official” pick for the week at under 31.5 -125. If you got on board earlier in the week (probably closer to -115/-118) and want to add to the position that’s for you to decide.
As per our Quick Takes analysis pages, here is how we work with team totals:
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.
39. UCLA -3.5 Washington St (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -4
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 32 Washington St 28.5
This is a very underrated PAC 12 battle with both teams trying to upset the APPLE CART in the PAC 12……UCLA already has a conference loss (Utah) whilst the Cougars are 1-0 (Oregon St)……The Cougars have put up 50,31,64,38 in their 4G but this will be just their 2nd road test….UCLA’s D has been excellent (#1 PAC 12 YPP D) but they’ve played a soft schedule…..And you gotta figure the QB edge goes to Washington St’s Cam Ward (13-0 TD to INT) over the emerging star (but true freshman) Dante Moore…..Prefer UCLA’s overall balance but tough game to call at this number.
No leanage
40. Northern Illinois -5 Akron (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -5
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 24 Akron 19
This appears to be the case of two teams going in opposite directions…..Akron has dropped two OT games in a row (combined 5 OT) and have lost starting QB DJ Irons for the season who was a yuuuuge part of making the offense roll with his rushing ability (141 rush vs Indiana, 77 vs Buffalo)…..THE UNDERCUFFLER has struggled this year in the backup role (1-4 TD to INT) and he’s got ZERO mobility….NIU QB R Lombardi looked healthy last week whilst almost taking down Toledo on the road and recall that this team beat Boston College on the road in week one with Lombardi and all his flaws at the controls.
Lean – Northern Illinois -5
41. North Carolina -9.5 Syracuse (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -10
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 34.5 Syracuse 25
The Orange have to be given credit for their 4-1 start but they finally played a decent opponent last week (Clemson) and were no match for the opponent…..North Carolina is in the same area code as the Tigers and they’re fresh off a bye and are 4-0 after defeating four quality opponents (if you include Minnesota)…..The line looks about right let’s see how Syracuse does playing another solid opponent and judge from there.
No leanage
42. Navy -6 North Texas (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Navy -4
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 33.5 North Texas 27.5
Navy is coming in off a disappointing home effort vs South Florida (L 44-30) and they’re now 0-2 in AAC action and 1-3 overall…..They’ve gotta start rolling if they wanna make their first bowl game since (2091) but the offense just isn’t clicking up to NAVY standards and the defnese has been ugly…..They just allowed 339 passing yards to a Bulls team that’s not known for dominating thru the air…..North Texas has one the worst defenses imaginable (#130 FBS total defense, #130 vs the run) but they can SCORE the FOOTBALL…..39,40,45 L3G…..Team with the ball last wins…..North Texas not a good road team….Navy a bad home fav…..YIKES.
No leanage
43. Ole Miss -11.5 WOO PIG (62.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -13
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 37 WOO PIG 25.5
This is a rare match-up in which BOTH teams are coming off a PAIR of yuuuge games…..The Rebels just played ROLL TIDE and LSU…..WOO PIG played LSU and Texas A&M……Who has the edge?….Well from an Xs and Os standpoint we give the edge to Ole Miss as their offense is humming and they’re getting healthier by the week……Ole Miss also gets the slight edge on defense and could it be that WOO PIG is on a slippery slide to missing a bowl game?
Lean – Ole Miss -11.5
44. Fresno St -6 Wyoming (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 25 Wyoming 19
It doesn’t appear that the Pokes are getting the respect they deserve with this number……Yes, their offense is DUMPSTER JUICE (#114 total offense) but they can still run the football a bit (#41) especially now that RB Harrison Waylee is popping off big gainers (457, 8.6, 3 TD)……Wyoming 8-2 ATS L10 as home dog…..Fresno has played a soft docket since they slithered past Purdue in week one…..E Washington….Arizona St with a no QB……Kent St…..Nevada.
Lean – Wyoming +6
45. Boise St -9.5 San Jose St (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -10
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 33.5 San Jose 24
Boise St hasn’t looked like themselves (2-3) but they’ve played a tough schedule (#19) and are 1-0 in conference play (San Diego St)……We like how they’re starting to mix in Maddux Madsen at QB who’s looked good in limited action as he may give them more upside than T Green…..San Jose St has also faced a rugged set of opponents (#9) but have looked much less competitive overall…..Not confident in either squad and the number looks about right……Fun Fact….San Jose St is 0-6 SU in Boise…..and 1-14 SU overall.
No leanage
46. Oregon St -9.5 California (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 30.5 California 21
MEGALOCKS players were let down by the Golden Bears in a 9001 STAR DEATH JAB INDUCED SEIZURE LOCK loser as they couldn’t seperate from Arizona St (!) at home…..They’re better in the role of home underdog but that throw game is pretty unreliable……Oregon St is probably laying a few too many points in this spot but they’re the much better team with the only real weakness being a secondary that Cal cannot exploit……Oregon St is #4 in the nation vs the run which is key when playing Cal…..Would love a number around -7 but haaaaaaaaaaaa wishful thinking, yo……Taking a seat for now.
No leanage
47. UTSA -14 Temple (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -12
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 34.5 Temple 20.5
UTSA hasn’t looked like themselves but it certainly hasn’t helped to have star QB Frank Harris hurt for a good chunk of the season…..He should be back for this one but the MOJO on this team looks a bit off…..Meanwhile Temple can throw the ball but not do much of anything else…….Not a game we’ll be playing.
No leanage
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.