Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 7 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Hard to believe we’ve reached the midpoint of the season.
Let’s go!
Boxscore review:
AAC
UTSA 41 UAB 20 – Misleading final…..364-360 yd edge for Blazers but were (-2) in t/o margin…..UTSA got hot start (21 point first Q) and held from there…..Roadrunners one of FOUR undefeated AAC teams
SMU 31 East Carolina 10 – closer game than score indicates….EC was down 14-10 heading into 4Q……334-290 yd edge for SMU, they’ve got layup next vs Temple
Tulane 31 Memphis 21 – bit of a strange game…..Tulane jumped out 10-0….Memphis gets hot and takes 21-10 lead early in the 3Q……then they fall apart and lose by 10…..Green Wave wins 4Q 14-0…..403-366 yd edge for Tulane and the +2 in t/o was yuuuuuge
Florida Atlantic 56 USF 14 – WOW……the win wasn’t a total shock but the WAY they did it was…..and don’t look now but HOOT HOOT is undefeated early in AAC play…..587-388 yard edge for FAU, 205 rush, 382 pass, held ball for 36 min, UTSA comes to Boca Raton next week!
Navy 14 Charlotte 0 – Two 60+ yard TDs for Navy and solid D……Did it with 3rd string true freshman QB…..265 yds for each team…..was scoreless at half…..Navy with rivalry game vs Air Force up next
North Texas 45 Temple 14 – 527-347 yd edge…..220 rush and 307 pass…..HOOT HOOT surprisingly did not have starting QB EJ Warner available for the game……Mean Green offense is rolling…..visit Tulane next
ACC
Florida St 41 Syracuse 3 – total domination…..535-261 yd edge, 191 rush 344 pass…..Yuuuuge game with Duke up next
Pitt 38 LUA-VUH 21 – nice upset win for Pitt but was a misleading final……430-288 yd edge and 28-13 FD edge for Cardinals but were (-3) in t/o……Pitt won with backup QB who looked ok, hit a few big plays, LUA-VUH suffers first loss of the year and have bye week next to lick their wounds
North Carolina 41 Miami 31 – YOUR Miami Hurricanes led 17-14 at half but got smoked 21-CACK in the 3Q…..took 41-24 lead with 3 min left….Miami kept digging and actually had a shot to close the lead in 41-38 in the dying seconds (and push +3) but threw a late INT……508-482 yd edge for UNC, big game for WR D Walker 132, 3 TD……UNC RB O Hampton 24-197, TD
Duke 24 NC State 3 – impressive win for Duke with star QB injured……D played lights out….NC State scored 48 points last week…..Misleading final tho……305-301 yd edge and 18-12 FD edge for Pack……Falling behind 17-3 in first half was a killer
Hokies 30 Wake Forest 13 – best game of the year for the Hokies….462-262 yd edge, held Wake to 35 rush yards, were +2 in t/o margin, big game for QB K Drones 20/29 321, 2-0 TD to INT
Big 12
Kansas St 38 Texas Tech 21 – we just might be coming into the AVERY JOHNSON ERA……Freshman QB with 5 rushing TD…..Misleading final…..480-435 yd edge for Red Raiders but they were (-3) in t/o margin…..Cats still much alive for a spot in Big 12 title game but probably no more margin for error the rest of the way
TCU 44 BYU 11 – great bounce back effort from the Horned Frogs……Backup QB Josh Hoover lit it up…..439Y, 4-2 TD to INT….584-243 yd edge for TCU
Oklahoma St 39 Kansas 32 – Jayhawks down 14-CACK….Roared back to take 32-24 lead and looked good….Then couldn’t stop turning the ball over whilst holding the lead…..Allowed final 15 points of the game…554-500 yd edge for Pokes….Held Kansas to 90 rush yards but QB Jason Bean threw for 410, 5 TD……2 INT in 2nd half were a killer
Iowa St 30 Cincinnati 10 – 2nd straight solid effort from the Cyclones…..364-214 yd edge and +2 in t/o margin…..Held Cincy QB E Jones to just 96 passing yards on 26 attempts
Houston 41 West Virginia 39 – WHOA NELLIE….one of the craziest final 30 seconds you will ever see…..and what better time for the PULP FICTION GIMP to make his weekly appearance and torture WV -3 backers…….WV with 546-393 yd edge…..Found themselves behind 35-32 late…..driving….driving…..4th and 10 at midfield….the throw….complete!….Something called a Hudson Clement goes 50 yards for the “game-winning” TD with 12 SECONDS LEFT!!…..Congrats West Virginia -3 backers!!! a 39-35 win is surely coming your way and a finish you will never forget!!…..Uh oh what’s this?….Houston gets to midfield for a Hail Mary shot….Can this QB even reach the end zone??…..Ball in the air…..Tipped…..Caught! TD Houston! Congrats Houston backers! A finish you will never forget…..41-39 win…..game over…..start the cars…..see you next week!…..Don’t forget to wear those masks!
Big Ten
Michigan 52 Indiana 7 – 407-232 yd edge…..+4 in t/o made score a bit misleading…..Hoosiers led 7-0 and Michigan outscored them 52-CACK the rest of the way…..Hoosiers managed to get 4 sacks
Ohio St 41 Purdue 7 – very impressive road win…..486-257 yd edge, were (-2) in t/o but did not matter…..Good game for QB K McCord (276, 3-0 TD to INT)……Held Purdue QB H Card to 3.9 YPA, massive game with Penn St coming up!
Penn St 63 Massachusetts 0 – expected BLOWOUT CITY…..408-109 yd edge and 7 sacks for Penn St
Illinois 27 Maryland 24 – The FIGHTING BERT BIELEMAs finally cover a game and they do it with style…..Pretty even game….380-337 yd edge for Terps…..Illinois wins it on last play FG
Rutgers 27 Michigan St 24 – Sparty BARFS all over themselves in the 4Q for the 2nd straight game and this one was worse……Led 24-6 after 3Q and had game in total control……Then Rutgers get def TD…….Another TD……Michigan St fumbles the kickoff….AND Another TD……Held on to win from there…..295-245 yd edge for Scarlet Knights
iowa 15 Wisconsin 6 – IOWA pulls an IOWA and takes control of the Big Ten West……332-237 yd edge for Wisconsin but they were (-2) in t/o and allowed 82 yd TD run early in the game to allow Hawkeyes to get off to a good start…..Iowa QB Deacon Hill had 37 passing yards on 14 attempts
Conference USA
UTEP 27 FIU 14 – 441-363 yd edge for MINER NATION……302 pass yards, new QB Cade McConnell looked pretty good – note for future games…..UTEP also +2 in t/o margin
MTSU 31 Louisiana Tech 23 – pretty even game, 419-353 yd edge for Bulldogs, QB H Bachmeier came off the bench for LT looked decent
Liberty 31 Jacksonville St 13 – 422-325 yd edge, outscored COCKS 31-6 in final 3Q, Flames move to 6-0
New Mexico St 27 Sam Houston 13 – 458-367 yd edge for Aggies, 172 rush, 286 pass……led 27-zip at the half….Sam Houston kept CLAWING away, threw for 285Y
Independents
See commentary in other conference sections
MAC
Toledo 13 Ball St 6 – Close call for Rockets who almost pulled a classic “Toledo”…..TD with 1:31 left to win the game….376-205 yd edge, held NADS to just 38 pass yards
Northern Illinois 23 Ohio 13 – Huskies continue to play good football…..outscored Ohio 16-CACK in the 2nd half…..302-254 yd edge for Northern Illinois…..Ohio now a game behind Miami Ohio in the MAC East but get them at home in a few weeks
Eastern Michigan 28 Kent St 14 – Kent St deserved better……343-218 (!) yard edge but were (-2) in t/o margin
Central Michigan 17 Akron 10 – another close loss for the Zips…..FIRE UP CHIPS 298-193 yd edge and book their 4th win
Miami Ohio 34 Western Michigan 21 – even game, 315-303 yd edge for Miami Ohio and they were (-2) in t/o margin….Broncos cut the lead to 28-21 in 4Q but couldn’t finish the comeback
Bowling Green 24 Buffalo 14 – 295-238 yd edge for Falcons, Buffalo had five turnovers, Bowling Green had three
Mountain West
Colorado St 31 Boise St 30 – MORE CRAZY TOWN!…..What a week……Boise St up 30-10 (!) …..Colorado St TD with 43 min left…..30-17…..get the onside kick…..TD……30-24…..Get ANOTHER onside kick but recovery called back by cheating refs due to penalty…..Boise gets next onside kick but can’t run out clock…..Colorado St inside their own 20 with less than 25 seconds left…..Huge gain to the 33…..spike the ball….one more play……Hail Mary….Tipped and caught!! 30-30…..Celebration penalty means long XP but it’s good! Rams win 31-30………401-384 yd edge for Col St
Air Force 34 Wyoming 27 – Tough loss for Pokes but very fun game……27-27 late….AF 58 yd TD run with 2 min left for the winning score…..414-321 yd edge for FLYBOYS
San Diego St 41 Hawaii 34 – Aztecs led 17-CACK….Hawaii tied it….SD St pulled away in 4Q…….Misleading final…..Hawaii with 480-378 yd edge but were (-3) in t/o
Fresno St 37 Utah St 32 – Aggies chased most of the game but finally took lead 32-31 with 4 min left….Fresno scores TD with 2 min left to win…..yet another misleading final……568-461 yd edge for Utah St but (-2) in t/o…..Their offense is really cooking….Fresno backup QB L Fife played well
San Jose St 52 New Mexico 24………Lobos LED at the half 17-14 then WAT THE WAT?…..Spartans 531-391 yd edge for SJ St….much needed win trying to get to a bowl game still need to win 4L5
UNLV 45 Nevada 27 – Rebels up 28-7 at half and that was the ball game….UNLV now 5-1!……518-474 yd edge for Rebels and were also +3 in t/o which was a killer for the Pack
PAC 12
Notre Dame 48 USC 20 – BLOWOUT CITY, horrible 1st half for USC QB C Williams who had one INT heading into this game and he threw 3 (!) in the first half…..Misleading final…..302-251 yd edge for Trojans but they were an impossible (-5) in turnover margin….Loss hurts their playoff chances BIGLY but they’re still undefeated in the PAC 12
Utah 34 California 14 – 445-254 yd edge for the Utes….Still using backup QBs this time it was B Barnes…..317 (!) rush yards just smoked Cal on the ground……USC is up next and then Oregon after that!
Washington 36 Oregon 33 – incredibly entertaining game…..Oregon fought back from 11 down to take the lead and had the ball with just over 2 minutes left…..Went for it on 4th down near midfield to ice the game and didn’t convert…..Washington scored quickly to take a 3 point lead….Oregon misses FG to send game into OT….Ducks with aggressive (too aggressive?) play-calling left some points on the field…….541-415 yd edge for the Ducks and +1 in t/o…..got lots of heat on QB Penix and really didn’t do much wrong in this game.
Oregon St 36 UCLA 24 – Beavers jumped out 13-0….Misleading final…..Bruins with 453-415 yd edge and 27-18 FD advantage but were (-2) in t/o and allowed Pick 6 late in first half to turn 6 point deficit into a 13-point halftime deficit
Arizona 44 Washington St 6 – WOW….Maybe the most shocking score of the weekend that not many people will notice…..Arizona off 3 OT loss to USC……Wash St led 6-0 after five minutes of play and then Arizona scored the next 44 (!) points in a row…..Pullman a tough place to play and Arizona will be a HOT HANDFUL the rest of the way…..516-234 yd edge for Arizona and +3 in t/o…..Cougars offense has just disappeared last two weeks and now travel to Oregon
Stanford 46 Colorado 43 (2 OT) – WHOA, NELLIE…..Biggest comeback win in the HISTORY of Stanford football…..Down 29-CACK at the half……Found a way to force it into OT and win the game……532-523 yd edge for Buffs and 33 first downs…..One of the most amazing performances (and catch in OT) from a WR….Stanford’s E Ayomanor had 294 receiving yards and 3 TD…..ALL in the 2nd half and OT…..Buffs get a week off before heading to UCLA
SEC
ROLL TIDE 24 WOO PIG 21 – Tide led 24-6, held on to win……415-250 yd edge, Bama booked four or more sacks for the 5th straight game….BUT…..they’ve allowed four or more sacks in every game since the opener vs MTSU
LSU 48 Auburn 18 – 563-293 yd edge, 238 rush 325 pass, LSU has scored 49/49/48 L3G, 17-0 after first Q and that was pretty much the game
Tennessee 20 Texas A&M 13 – 332-277 yd edge for Vols, Aggies led 13-10, Vols PR TD 3Q and never trailed after that…..Vols just 100 passing yards
Georgia 37 Vanderbilt 20 – Commodores played pretty well….led 7-0, could have been 10-0, then Dawgs took over, 552-219 yd edge for Georgia, note that star TE B Bowers left the game due to injury (ankle/foot?)…..Keep tabs
Florida 41 South Carolina 39 – yuuuuge win for the Gators…..down by 10 points with 5 min left…..LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT A MAN NAMED GRAHAM MERTZ…..423 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT…..bye week and then the rivalry game with Georgia
Missouri 38 Kentucky 21 – Cats got up 14-0 and then the game went GLUG GLUG GLUG after Missouri got fake punt TD…..324-299 yd edge for Missourrrahhh and they were +2 in t/o margin…..Tigers’ star WR L Burden left game with injury, keep tabs on his status
Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina 27 Appalachian St 24 – CHANTS win on last play FG to keep slim East division hopes alive…..569-416 yd edge, 196 rush, 373 pass
Georgia St 41 Marshall 24 – close game into 4Q…..Panthers score 2 TD to put game away….474-457 yd edge for Panthers….Still very much in the hunt in East division
James Madison 41 Georgia Southern 13 – WOW….These Dukes can play some football….Final score misleading but they get to 6-0…..384-368 yd edge but +3 in t/o margin…..Held Ga Southern QB D Brin to 271 yards (0-2 TD to INT)
Troy 19 Army 0 – 449-255 yd edge, very impressive win vs a tough Army squad
Texas St 21 ULM 20 – another crushing close loss for the Warhawks…..up 20-9 and Texas St scores 2 TD in the final 4:16, one with 41 seconds left…..Misleading final…..452-285 yd edge, 29-14 FD edge, held ball for 37 min, just one turnover but somehow almost lost the game
Betting review
“Official” picks
Oregon (Push) – Definitely a tough one. Oregon won the yardage battle significantly and led late but HC Dan Lanning handled the game like he was playing Madden whilst on MUSHROOMS.
Kansas (L) – led by 8 and looked good 3Q and then barfed all over themselves. Very disappointing result.
Small plays/Leans
6-6
Win – North Carolina, Liberty, San Diego St, Iowa, Navy, North Texas TT over
Lose – USC, Western Michigan, New Mexico, USF, UCLA under, Memphis
Picking the “best” of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 5-16 on the season on the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 49-32 (60%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.) but for now we continue to recommend that it’s best to risk the same wager amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks until things get turned around.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – One win in the bag, Merrimack is as close to an automatic win as you can get. Army and Liberty aren’t unbeatable but Connecticut to end the year could be the key. Massachusetts sweats are the best.
Akron over 3.5 – Running out of runway. They’ve had some agonizing losses. On life support.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – Definitely capable of winning three of their final five games but it will likely come down to the final game vs Virginia.
Colorado St over 4.5 – The season win total portfolio finally gets a miracle win. They’re good enough to win two more games but you never know!
Kentucky over 7 – Sitting at 5-2. Two losses in a row. Bye week should help and then a yuuuge game with Tennessee.
Tulane under 9.5 – One loss in the bag. Memphis had them on the ropes this week but couldn’t GIT ER DONE.
UConn over 5 – On life support. Will need to pull an upset over James Madison or Boston College (for starters) and that won’t be easy.
Futures and Props Club
This is the time of year when things start to take shape. As always, we’ll keep you posted on any additions!
Sun Belt Champion – South Alabama at +330 and Georgia Southern at +1600 are live; Coastal Carolina +550 is on life support; Remember that James Madison is not eligible for winning the conference.
MAC Champion – Toledo at +180 and Miami Ohio at +803 look decent. Both teams are in the lead in their division but there’s a lot of football left to play.
ACC Champion – Florida St at +175 and UNC at +1100 look good; Duke is the only other undefeated ACC team and they face Florida St on the road this week.
PAC 12 Champion – USC at +200 is still alive as the Notre Dame loss was a non-conference defeat. Can they sneak into the title game? We’ll have a better idea after the Utah game coming up next.
CUSA Champion – Western Kentucky at +125 is in decent shape. 80% shot or better to make the title game but Liberty looks good too.
SEC West Champion – LSU (+200) needs to keep winning and take down ROLL TIDE. Ole Miss at 20-1 is lingering in the background.
Mountain West Champion – Boise St suffered their first conference loss this week and now probably need to win out to get to the title game. Colorado St is alive at 18-1 but they don’t appear to be good enough to win the rest of their conference games.
AAC Champion – SMU at +320 and FAU at +650 are both live. The Owls played their best game of the year on Saturday and face UTSA this week.
National Champion – Feel good about adding Oklahoma at 40-1 in late September. Also have GA, USC, Texas, Penn St. The Trojans are a highly-unlikely playoff participant and will need to win out. Penn St has a big game with Ohio St up next. Feel pretty good that Georgia and either Texas or Oklahoma will get to the CFP but we’ll see how it plays out.
Heisman Trophy winner – Caleb Williams ticket? HE GONE. The good news is that M Penix (+600) is now a significant favorite at offshore books we checked this morning and he’s got the inside track if he can stay healthy (20-3 TD to INT, should clear 4,000 yards with ease)……Bo Nix is still in the mix (20-1) but the Ducks will need to win out for him to get some consideration……Jayden Daniels (+1129) isn’t out of it as a longshot possibility as he’s putting up big numbers and LSU can still win the SEC by winning out.
Cheers and Enjoy Week 8!