Week 7 – Miami at North Carolina

Miami at North Carolina

posted October 13

The Game

Two of the contenders for the ACC Championship do battle in Chapel Hill on Saturday as YOUR Miami Hurricanes come to town to take on North Carolina. Miami suffered a SIMPLE JACK moment last week vs Georgia Tech and suffered a critical loss. One more ACC defeat will probably spell the end of their conference title dreams. North Carolina sits at 5-0 and haven’t had the luxury of playing any TOMATO CANS. Who comes out on top?

The Details

North Carolina -3 Miami (57)

MEGALOCKS LINE – North Carolina -4

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: North Carolina 30 Miami 27

North Carolina offense vs Miami defense

Star QB Drake Maye hasn’t put up the numbers like last season but the Tar Heels have a balanced attack that keeps opponents on their toes (#9 FBS total offense, #45 rush, #11 pass). Maye has a pedestrian 8-4 TD to INT mark (38-7 LY) but he’s very mobile (4 rush TD) and is outstanding at sustaining drives (#2 FBS 3rd down conversions). Miami’s defense has been excellent so far (#1 ACC run D, #4 pass efficiency D) but they’re only #10 in the conference in sacks (12) and will need to find a way to get Maye on the ground a few times to kill a few drives or force turnovers. The Miami stop unit has only faced one offense with a pulse (Texas A&M) and they allowed 33 points and well over 400Y.

Miami offense vs North Carolina defense

Miami’s offense had been cooking up until last week when they moved the ball but could only score 20 points on a horrible Georgia Tech defense. QB Tyler Van Dyke had been lighting it up in 2023 but last week’s game was very concerning (3 INT). They’ve got a deep RB corps to rely upon and the rushing attack has been solid (#13 FBS, 211 YPG) but they lack explosiveness (no run > 40Y) and Van Dyke is not very mobile to say the least. The WR corps is very good but they lack a true superstar. Xavier Restrepo almost always comes up with the clutch catch (36, 478, 2 TD) and will need to be the focus of the UNC secondary on 3rd downs. UNC has been better than expected on defense particularly vs the pass where they rank #2 in the conference in pass efficiency defense whilst allowing just TWO TD passes all season.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Miami has had the benefit of playing four TURDS and they were defeated by one of them (#107 schedule) whilst the Tar Heels have played a more difficult set of opponents (#27)……The Hurricanes have the best win by far (Texas A&M at home)……The weather forecast looks ok….30% chance of rain, probably early on….Overall, the game conditions should be decent…..UNC has won the last four meetings and are 6-2 ATS L8.


We believe that UNC is the better overall team and they’ve had Miami’s number recently. Who knows how Miami bounces back from last week’s effort but this won’t be an easy “get right spot”.


Lean – North Carolina -3


‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review post (week 6) for more detail.

‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.

Team totalsWe list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.