Week 7 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
Official plays in blue. Leans in green.
LEANS MAY BE ADDED until 6pm FRIDAY
- Louisiana Tech at MTSU (Tuesday)
- Liberty at Jacksonville St (Tuesday)
- UTEP at FIU (Wednesday)
- Sam Houston at New Mexico St (Wednesday)
- Coastal Carolina at Appalachian St (Tuesday)
- Stanford at Colorado (Friday)
- WOO PIG at Alabama
- Indiana at Michigan
- UMass at Penn St
- Troy at Army
- Toledo at Ball St
- Akron at Central Michigan
- Kent St at Eastern Michigan
- Bowling Green at Buffalo
- SMU at East Carolina (Thursday)
- Miami Ohio at Western Michigan
- UNLV at Nevada
- Wyoming at Air Force
- San Diego St at Hawaii
- Boise St at Colorado St
- Marshall at Georgia St
- San Jose St at New Mexico
- West Virginia at Houston (Thursday)
- Georgia at Vanderbilt
- California at Utah
- NC State at Duke
- Kansas St at Texas Tech
- Auburn at LSU
- FAU at South Florida
- Syracuse at Florida St
- Illinois at Maryland
- Michigan St at Rutgers
- Iowa at Wisconsin
- Missouri at Kentucky
- UCLA at Oregon St
- Kansas at Oklahoma St
- Fresno St at Utah St
- BYU at TCU
- Wake Forest at Virginia Tech
- UAB at UTSA
- ULM at Texas St
- Louisville at Pittsburgh
- Florida at South Carolina
- Texas A&M at Tennessee
- Tulane at Memphis (Friday)
- Ohio St at Purdue
- Georgia Southern at James Madison
- Arizona at Washington St
- Temple at North Texas
- Navy at Charlotte
- Iowa St at Cincinnati
- Ohio at Northern Illinois
- Oregon at Washington
QUICK TAKES
1. MTSU -3 Louisiana Tech (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – MTSU -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – MTSU 28.5 Louisiana Tech 25.5
It’s tough to back the Blue Raiders in this spot as their season is on the very edge of going GLUG GLUG GLUG….They collapsed last week vs Jax St but outgained the COCKS by a wide margin (563-401)…..(-3) in t/o margin was a killer…..Decent match-up for the 3-4 Bulldogs who are trying to get to a bowl game….They’re #2 in CUSA in pass efficiency D and allowing just 50% completions…They got hit a bit by WKU but the MTSU THROW GAME is much more erratic……MTSU 0-3 ATS L3 (-31 ATS) but note the home team is 4-0 SU in the series…..La Tech HC Sonny Cumbie just won his first true road game last week vs UTEP (now 1-9 all-time)……Prefer the dog but would want more than a FG……We’ll see what happens in the market but will almost certainly take a pass pre-flop and wait for in-game opportunities.
No leanage
2. Liberty -6 Jacksonville St (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -7
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 31 Jacksonville St 25
The 5-0 Flames roll into Jacksonville, Alabama to battle the 5-1 Gamecocks….Both teams have faced weak opposition (Liberty #153, Jax St #163) and both teams are in the top-5 in the nation in turnover margin (COCKS +10, Flames +7)…..We prefer the road team as whilst both defenses are stout the Flames have a much better offense (#2 CUSA YPP, Jax St #8) and a yuuuge edge at QB with K Salter (12-2 TD to INT, 306 rush, 6 TD) and a massive net YPP edge (Liberty 2.26, COCKS 0.38)…..Jax St beat Sam Houston in OT at home (lost yardage battle 435-393)….Liberty beat Sam Houston by 5 at home (448-327 yd edge)…..Flames have allowed just 87/64/72 rush yards L3G.
Lean – Liberty -6
3. UTEP -1 FIU (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 22.5 FIU 21.5
Tough game to call with both teams stttrrruggglllliiinnnggggg……UTEP is 1-5 on the year and 0-5 ATS vs FBS foes (-64 ATS) and we don’t know the status of starting QB G Hardison…..He’s not very good but the other chumps they’ve been rolling out there are disgusting…..At least they have a rushing attack to count on that got rolling vs LTech last week (224) and FIU has a soft underbelly…..FIU has dropped their last two games and only scored 23 points….QB K Jenkins hasn’t thrown a TD pass since the middle of Sept (UConn) and they’re last in CUSA in sacks allowed….The good news for FIU is that they’ve got the coaching edge and the intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that UTEP is 1-26-1 SU all-time in the Eastern time zone….More upside with the home team and prefer them slightly but taking a seat for now…..Take note that the weather looks sketchy and if it’s rainy with wind gusts (see weather blog page) it might (MIGHT) favor the team with the better ground game which is UTEP but again….MIGHT ha ha.
No leanage
4. New Mexico St -4 Sam Houston (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico St -6
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 23.5 Sam Houston 19.5
The Aggies are 3-3 and still very much in the hunt for a spot in the CUSA title game (1-1)….They’ve got one of the best players in the conference in QB D Pavia (12-5 TD to INT, leading rusher)……The D hasn’t been great but it’s coming around….Speaking of coming around the previously pathetic Sam Houston offense has looked a lot better recently in their last two games which were both competitive (OT loss to Jax St, 5 point loss to Liberty)……Prefer the home team but note that the Aggies have played the #170 schedule (SH #31) and the Bearkats are hungry for their first win…..Little bit of MOB STEAM on SH since open (-6) for those who like knowing that kinda thing.
No leanage
5. Appalachian St -5.5 Coastal Carolina (62)…………MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -6
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 33.75 Coastal Carolina 28.25
This should be a fun battle on Tuesday night as both squads have looked good vs quality opposition…..App St took UNC to multiple OT and lost by 3 to a scrappy Wyoming on the road (had double the yards)…..The CHANTS played an even game at UCLA in a loss and whilst they lost their last two games to Ga St and Ga Southern they outgained both of those opponents…..they were (-4) in t/o vs the Eagles…..CC QB G McCall has a mediocre 6-6 TD to INT mark (24-2 LY) and is struggling a bit with the weight of the team on his shoulders……App St is 18-3 SU at home under HC Shawn Clark but note that their just 7-12 ATS in the role of HF under his leadership……Neither D appears trustworthy…..Puzzler of a handicap at this price…..App St -4 looks ok and CC +7 looks ok but here we are right in the middle……Let’s see if the line moves a bit in either direction and go from there.
No leanage
6. Colorado -12 Stanford (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -11
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 35.5 Stanford 23.5
We still don’t know what to make of Stanford as of yet…..We do know that they’ve played USC/Oregon/Arizona which isn’t easy but also note that the Buffs have played the #2 (!) overall docket…..Colorado will SCORE the FOOTBALL but the spot is a bit tricky….a MUCH needed bye week is up next for Colorado as they’ve had quite the emotional start to the season and they’re playing a turd at home……but it’s a turd that’s off a bye week and one that only lost to Arizona by 1 point a few weeks ago….The same Wildcats team that took USC to OT.
No leanage
7. Alabama -19.5 WOO PIG (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Alabama -18
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 34 WOO PIG 14.5
The line might be a titch high but the TIDE is ROLLING right now particularly on defense where they’re looking rock solid….The OL is still a major issue but they’re getting by…..WOO PIG is coming in off a tough three-game GAUNTLET (LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss) and it’s hard to believe they’ll have much left in the tank….BUT…..they sure haven’t packed it in yet and are battling hard.
No leanage
8. Michigan -34 Indiana (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -31
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 40.75 Indiana 6.75
It’s really tough to lay almost 5 TDs but Michigan has outscored Big Ten opposition 128-24 and Indiana will be the worst Big Ten team they’ve faced yet…WOO! Another great game coming up on Saturday…..Wolverines have allowed 3/7/6/7/7/10 points in 6G….Indiana is off a bye which we suppose can’t hurt but they’re hard to back.
No leanage
9. Penn St -42.5 UMass (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -40
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 50 UMass 7.5
The Minutemen are capable of moving the ball but they’ve played a weak schedule (#120) and recall that the only Power 5 team they played so far (Auburn) whooped them 59-14…..Penn St can name the score but they’ve got Ohio St on deck so this might be an instance where even your boy James Franklin refuses to do anything and everything to cover the number….maybe. Also note that Penn St is #1 in the nation in total defense, #1 in pass efficiency D, #2 in scoring D….Probably something like 31-0 or 31-3 at the half and then the cover is 50/50.
No leanage
10. Troy -4.5 Army (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -6
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 24.5 Army 20
On paper we prefer the road team in this affair as the Trojans are playing their best football right now but it’s a non-conference game and Army can’t afford to lose this one with a guaranteed loss on deck (LSU)……Trojans won the game at home LY 10-9…..Troy has won the L2G by a combined score of 65-10.
No leanage
11. Toledo -17 Ball St (50)………..MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 33.5 Ball St 16.5
The Rockets are the far superior team but it’s another game vs a CUPCAKE (UMass last game) and there’s no real motivation to dominate and crush and kill…..Ball St is one of the worst teams in the conference but maybe Toledo is thinking about their yuuuge date with Miami Ohio up next?
No leanage
12. Central Michigan -12.5 Akron (44.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 28.5 Akron 16
Not very easy to back either of these teams at the window right now……..Central Michigan looked to be on a definite upswing until getting destroyed by Buffalo (!) last week (L 37-13) and whilst Akron has been very scrappy this season and could easily have a few wins they’re going with a dood at QB who’s just started one game…..Losing starting QB DJ Irons was a killer….Tahj Bullock may end up being decent but we’ll wait and see how he does this week.
No leanage
13. Eastern Michigan -10 Kent St (53)………..MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -12
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 31.5 Kent St 21.5
The Eagles have looked like HOT GARBAGE compared to recent standards but they’ve still got a mark of 3-3 and are alive in the MAC West race with just one conference loss….Kent St looks awful but this is a yuuuge step down in class after playing Fresno St, Miami Ohio, and Ohio in consecutive weeks…..Prefer the home team but can’t do it unless the line drops below double-digits.
No leanage
14. Buffalo -5.5 Bowling Green (47.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -4
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 26.5 Bowling Green 21
Don’t look now but the Bulls have won two games in row and are coming off a massacre of Central Michigan…..The defense still looks sketchy but they’ve held their last two opponents to a combined 23 points…..Bowling Green is a puzzle wrapped up in an enigma…..In three of their last four games they’ve scored 6,7,0…..In the other game they took down Georgia Tech with ease on the road……Tough call at this price point.
No leanage
15. SMU -11.5 East Carolina (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – SMU -10
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 31.5 East Carolina 20
The Mustangs haven’t been as deadly as anticipated on offense as QB P Stone has been just ok (11-5 TD to INT, 7.4 YPA) and not a single player has more than 200Y receiving so far….The D has been solid tho (#23 FBS total defense) and it makes us wonder how much success East Carolina will have on offense (#124)….The ARRRRRRRR Pirates have also played some good defense (#32) and allowed just 277 yards in their loss to Rice last game…..Prefer the fav but won’t lay more than -9.5 and here we are.
No leanage
16. Miami Ohio -8.5 Western Michigan (48.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -7
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 28.5 Western Michigan 20
Western Michigan has played pretty well the L3G…..led big at Toledo at one point, blew out Ball St, put up over 400Y and covered at Miss St….Miami Ohio has won their last two games by a combined score of 50-3 but note that they’ve played the easiest schedule in the MAC per Sagarin (#156; W Michigan #73) and their last 3G were against complete turds….Delaware St….Kent St….Bowling Green….QB H Wolff looked great vs Miss St LW and should get the start (27/35, 262, 3-1 TD to INT) and star RB J Buckley (dnp last week) should be ready for this one….Keep an eye on the status of Miami’s best offensive player WR G Larvadain (438, 24.3) who hasn’t been healthy in a while…..He would be a big boost for the Redhawks but they may keep him rested/limited so he’s 100% for the big game vs Ohio in a few weeks…..Broncos have won 8 straight vs Miami Ohio (5-3 ATS).
Lean – Western Michigan +8.5
17. UNLV -9.5 Nevada (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 32.75 Nevada 23.25
It’s time to battle for the FREMONT CANNON, yo…….Nevada is 0-5 but have covered the number in each of their L3G and only lost to Kansas by 7 and Texas St by 11….They don’t have much offense to speak of but QB AJ Bianco gave them a bit of a spark last game…..He’ll get some more time this week…UNLV has covered every game vs FBS competition and have scored 40+ on four occasions….The rushing attack has been great but they’ve only thrown 3 TD passes all year (4 INT)…..UNLV is the much better team but this is Nevada’s Super Bowl and it’s a yuuuuge rivalry game…..Don’t see line value either way.
No leanage
18. Air Force -10.5 Wyoming (42.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 26.5 Wyoming 16
There’s a good case to be made for both sides in this edition of the FRONT RANGE RIVALRY……Wyoming has played the much tougher schedule (#67; Air Force #154) and boast home wins over Texas Tech and Fresno St…..They’ve also covered in 11L13 match-ups with AF…..The bad news for the Pokes?….Their best offensive player by a mile and one of the most explosive RBs in the country H Waylee (540, 7.2) is listed as questionable and his injury didn’t look good last week….Also note that the Pokes have allowed some yards on the ground occasionally (185 vs Texas, 217 vs App St, 225 vs New Mexico) and that’s bad news facing the best rushing attack in the FBS (330 YPG)…..We’ll monitor things this week and would consider a play on Wyoming if Waylee is practicing and looking ready to play (not likely, but we’ll see)
No leanage
19. San Diego St -6 Hawaii (54)………..MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 30 Hawaii 24
The Aztecs haven’t looked good to say the least (2-4) but they’ve played a really tough schedule (#18; Hawaii #105) and their last 4G came against UCLA, Oregon St, Boise St, and Air Force…..This is a yuuuge drop in class for the Aztecs and their defense should be able to contain the Hawaii THROW GAME (#4 MW pass efficiency D, 53%, 10-8 TD to INT)…..SD St 9-2 SU L11 vs Hawaii.
Lean – San Diego St -6
20. Boise St -8 Colorado St (61)………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 34.5 Colorado St 26.5
The 2023 Broncos aren’t playing like previous editions of Boise St football although they’ve played a tough schedule (#19; Col St #94)…..They’re 2nd last in the MW in YPP defense (!) (LY #1) and the QB play has been very sketchy….RB Ashton Jeanty is carrying the team right now (656, 8 TD; 25 receptions, 354, 4 TD) and he could use some help……Since the opening week blowout loss to Washington the margin of victory in Boise St games (vs FBS foes) has been 2,3,3,8 so we’re not crazy about laying more than -7 even tho that appears to be the way to go…..Also they haven’t been very good on the road (1-2, 0-3 ATS) but to be fair this will be the easiest travel spot to date…..Colorado St appeared ready to cause trouble in the conference before inexplicably getting roasted big time by Utah St on the road last week….Bad game for the QB vs the Aggies and star WR Troy Horton is a “maybe” for this one…..Boise has never lost to the Rams (12-0, 9-3 ATS)……Sitting this one out for now but maybe we get lucky and see some mob steam take it to -7??…..Very unlikely but Colorado St has been supported in the betting markets all year.
No leanage
21. Georgia St -1 Marshall (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 28 Marshall 27
Both of these teams have proven to be unpredictable entities……Georgia St had a shot to make a FUN BELT statement in their last game vs Troy and were smoked at home…..Marshall’s offense appeared out of nowhere last week but their D disappeared….and what is the status of star RB R Ali who appeared to be limping off the field in the 4Q?…..We’ve got these teams rated close to even and here we are.
No leanage
22. San Jose St -8 New Mexico (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -7
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 33.25 New Mexico 25.25
The Spartans somehow blew a 20-point lead at Boise St last week and now sit at 1-5 whilst playing one of the toughest schedules around (#9; New Mexico #149)…..The Lobos are coming off a bye and the last time we saw them in action they were given the feisty Wyoming Cowboys a good battle on the road (L 35-26)…..The current total is 58.5….New Mexico is 3-1 OVER that total vs FBS opposition (62,44,65,61) whilst San Jose St is 5-0 OVER that number vs FBS foes (84,59,65,65,62) and their game with Cal Poly hit 61.
Lean – Over 58.5
23. West Virginia -3 Houston (51)………..MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 27 Houston 24
Tempted to roll with the road fav in this one but note that WV hasn’t outgained a single FBS opponent so far and that includes games (wins) over Texas Tech and TCU (433-343 edge TCU)….Their D has been very good but they’re 2nd last in the Big 12 in YPP offense and #14 thru the air….Houston is looking for their first Big 12 win and they’ve looked a lot better L2G destroying Sam Houston (not easy as this season has shown) and they lost to Texas Tech 49-28 despite outgaining them by almost 100Y…..QB D Smith is playing his best football right now…..Numbers say WV, gut and recent form says Houston.
No leanage
24. Georgia -31 Vanderbilt (56)………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -33
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 43.5 Vanderbilt 12.5
The Bulldogs can name the score in this one and they’ve gotta be FEELING THEIR OATS after ripping Kentucky to pieces last week….Bye week on deck….Vanderbilt is sadly PURE FILTH and they won’t be able to get much done in this one…..Fav or pass but we question the full-on motivation in this spot and note that Georgia hadn’t covered a game all year until last game.
No leanage
25. Utah -13.5 California (45.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah -12
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 29.5 California 16
Once again we’ll avoid the “is Cam Rising gonna play?” festivities…..Utah’s defense is fantastic….Cal’s gotta fine recent history as a road dog….They’ll be rolling with a QB making his 2nd career start….The Utes have the yuuuge game with USC on deck.
No leanage
26. Duke -3.5 NC State (46.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Duke -5
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 25 NC State 21.5
Impossible to play this game at the moment without knowing the status of Duke’s star QB Riley Leonard…..The line clearly implies that he will not be available…..Duke’s ACC fate will almost certainly be decided in the following two games when they take on Florida St and LUA-VUH on the road.
No leanage
27. Texas Tech -1.5 Kansas St (56.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 29 Kansas 27.5
Have the Red Raiders turned the corner??? Well they’ve won two in a row….albeit over patsies (Houston, Baylor) but let’s not forget they went toe to toe with Oregon earlier in the season…..They’re a very inconsistent bunch and are similar to Kansas St in that regard…..Kansas St was looking good and then tossed in a clunker last week vs a mediocre Oklahoma St squad….Kansas St has the edge at QB (probably) and the better HC and this feels like a tossup….Kansas St is 10-2 SU L12 vs Texas Tech.
No leanage
28. LSU -11 Auburn (60)………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 35.5 Auburn 24.5
The Tigers are playing spectacular football on offense thanks in large part to the play of QB J Daniels (19-2 TD to INT, 73%, 422 rush, 4 TD) and a devastating WR group….The problem is a defense that’s absolute DUMPSTER JUICE and they’ve allowed 31,55,39 L3G…..Auburn has multiple games with less than 100Y (!) passing but they’ve managed to run the ball well someway somehow (RB/QB) and facing the LSU stop unit will feel a whole lot easier than facing Texas A&M/Georgia like they have the last two weeks….Auburn HC Hugh Freeze is 16-7 ATS as a road dog in his career and the dog has covered the last seven in a row in this series…..A hot start for LSU should get them the cover but it’s just so hard to trust that defense.
No leanage
29. South Florida -2.5 FAU (59)……………MEGALOCKS line – South Florida -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Florida 30.75 FAU 28.25
We’ll roll with the home team in this BAD BOY as the Bulls played their first “bad” game of the year getting drilled by UAB on the road…..The Bulls’ D is very sketchy but they are MASTERS OF PENETRATION (#1 AAC TFL/game, #2 sacks) and they’ve got one of the most dynamic players in the G5 in QB B Brown (60%, 11-5 TD to INT; 466 rush, 7 TD)…..FAU squeaked past Tulsa last week but their offense has been limited all season (10/14/17/20 vs FBS foes) and even more so now that backup QB D Richardson is at the controls (111 attempts, 2 TD 3 INT, 4.7 YPA).
Lean – South Florida -2.5
30. Florida St -17.5 Syracuse (55.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -16
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 36.5 Syracuse 19
The Noles dusted off the Hokies last week and now sit at 5-0…..They’ve scored 30+ in every game this season and will be able to easily outscored a Syracuse team that allowed 31/40 L2G vs Clemson and UNC….They were 4-0 vs turds but haven’t been able to handle the rise in class…..Not cheap to take the Noles tho at the current market price…..Florida St 13-2 SU vs the Orange.
No leanage
31. Maryland -14 Illinois (51)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -12
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 32.5 Illinois 18.5
FEAR THE TURTLE had played a soft schedule before last week’s game at Ohio St but they certainly didn’t embarrass themselves in Columbus (L 37-17)…..Discounting that Ohio St game they’ve scored 30+ and allowed 20 or fewer in every game…..Illinois is in desperation mode sitting at 2-4 and need to go 4-2 in the 2nd half to get to a bowl game….not impossible but they’ve gotta start playing better and almost certainly need to find a way to win this one……Maryland has been strong at home this season but we still need to think about laying a full 2 TDs.
No leanage
32. Rutgers -4.5 Michigan St (39.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -6
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 22 Michigan St 17.5
Rutgers has been very good at home this season (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS vs FBS) but it’ll be a tough match-up vs a Sparty defense that held Iowa to just 61 rushing yards in their last game (349-22 yd edge overall) and recall that the week before the Iowa loss they outgained Maryland but were (-4) in turnovers…..Rutgers is the more trustworthy squad overall but Michigan St is off a bye and know this is a “must win” if they wanna make a bowl game…..they’ve still got Michigan, Ohio St, and Penn St on the docket.
No leanage
33. Wisconsin -10 Iowa (34.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 22 Iowa 12.5
it’s completely disgusting but we’ll plug our nose and take the Hawkeyes catching double digits in a yuuuge game in the Big Ten West….Iowa finally got some offense going last week as they rushed for 181 yards thanks in large part to the return of RB K Johnson….TE Erick All has been great and he’ll need to keep it up because the WR unit is void of talent…..ZERO catches for WRs last week….Even tho new QB Deacon Hill has trouble completing a pass (6/21 last week) he does have the ability to stretch the defense and it won’t take more than two or three decent gains in the THROW GAME to cover….Iowa has allowed 14/13/10/16/14 in games not involving Penn St….Wisconsin starting QB T Mordecai has 3 (! TD passes all season and the Badgers boast wins over Buffalo, Ga Southern (outgained but were +6 in t/o), Purdue (outgained, +2 in t/o) and Rutgers…..Iowa had three sacks all year before booking 6 last week…..Home team has won five of last six SU…..The Hawkeyes should stay within 10 points unless they’re (-2) in t/o margin or worse.
Lean – Iowa +10
34. Kentucky -2.5 Missouri (51.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -3
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 27 Missouri 24.5
Tough call to back either team at this price point and considering how their respective games went last week….Kentucky was shockingly brutal vs Georgia as they didn’t look focused or disciplined and that’s bad against Georgia ** …They left the game banged up but thankfully get this game at home where they’re tough to beat…..Missouri left it all on the line vs LSU but they couldn’t hold up in the 2nd half…..Check the status of Missouri #1 RB C Schrader (Q) if you plan on backing Missouri.
** hot take
No leanage
35. Oregon St -3.5 UCLA (54)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 28.75 UCLA 25.25
We’ll roll with the UNDER in this game as the Bruins are excellent on defense (#5 FBS total D, #2 run D, #8 pass efficiency D) and they’ve only allowed 9 (!) plays of 20+ yards all season which ties them for #1 in the nation (Iowa)….They match up well with the Beavers’ ground game and the Bruins have only scored 7 and 25 points L2G.
Lean – Under 54
36. Kansas -3 Oklahoma St (55.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 29.25 Oklahoma St 26.25
The Jayhawks are the much better team even with starting QB J Daniels on the shelf…..Backup Jason Bean is one of the better backups in the country (64%, 4-0 TD to INT, very mobile) and he led Kansas to a blowout win over UCF last week in which they rushed for an impossible 399 (!) yards….They’ve got a great HC, solid OL, and a multitude of targets at WR/TE/RB…..The D is average but much improved over LY and note that they rank #1 in the Big 12 in sacks….Oklahoma St is mediocre on offense and defense and they’ve got a collection of turds at QB….Alan Bowman has taken over and has a 2-3 TD to INT mark (53%)…..5.5 YPA ain’t gonna get it done….Kansas St puked the game away last week vs Oklahoma St on Friday night and that result….plus the backup QB in for Kansas gives us line value……Oklahoma St is 13-4-2 ATS L19 vs Kansas but the Jayhawks have been trash forever until LY…..and they beat the Pokes 37-16 at home.
Official play – Kansas -3 -108 <sent 6:00 pm Wed Oct 11>
Note – This is one of our favorite picks of the week. We’re currently playing all of our picks (“official” and small plays/leans) for the same amount but feel free to sprinkle a bit more if you agree with the analysis. It’s up to you. PLAY SAFE!
37. Fresno St -4.5 Utah St (57)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 30.75 Utah St 26.25
Bulldogs can’t afford to lose another conference game after falling to Wyoming last week…..They’re the better team, particularly on defense, but will be without starting QB M Keene…..Tough to know how backup Logan Fife will do but he had a 2-6 TD to INT mark LY……Utah St is cooking on offense right now and it’ll be up to the defense to get a few key stops……Market forces appear to have this BAD BOY priced in the correct range.
No leanage
38. TCU -6 BYU (52)…………….MEGALOCKS line – TCU -6
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 29 BYU 23
The Horned Frogs have outgained every opponent this season but they’re sitting with a record of 3-3 as we approach press time and they’ll have to go with back-up QB Josh Hoover **……They’ve also only scored 35 total points in their last two outings…..BYU rolls into town off a bye and have been very inconsistent…..They were outgained by WOO PIG but beat them on the road…….won the yardage battle at Kansas (!) but lost the game…..and defeated Cincinnati in their last outing despite losing the yardage battle significantly…..They’re off a bye…..Who knows how TCU’s new QB will fare?…..Tough call.
** no relation to Holly Hoover from the ‘Lubch Wagon Women’ franchise
No leanage
39. Virginia Tech -1 Wake Forest (47)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 24 Wake Forest 23
Pick your POISON in this disgusting match-up…..The Hokies are very much alive for a bowl game bid if they can win this one and head into their bye week at 3-4…..They’re still very limited on offense without starting QB G Wells who’s due back soon…..probably after the break…They blew out Pitt in their last home game and Wake Forest in certainly in their area code…..The DEACS are 3-2 but 0-2 in ACC play and are struggling to find an identity…..They’ve got the better HC and are pretty good ATS a a road dog under HC Dave Clawson (20-13)……Prefer the road team but would need +3 to get involved.
No leanage
40. UTSA -9.5 UAB (67.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -10
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 38.5 UAB 29
The Roadrunners finally looked a bit like themselves last week…..at least on offense…..as star QB Frank Harris looked really good (338, 3-0 TD to INT)….mind you it was against Temple….We get the sneaky suspicion that UTSA may play their best football in the 2nd half as the games start to get “real” in terms of the AAC race…..UAB’s defense is total trash but their offense has looked good in the last two games vs Tulane and USF (56 points)……Prefer the home team but there’s no doubt UAB has SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION potential the way they are moving the ball right now.
No leanage
41. Texas St -16 ULM (64)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 40 ULM 24
The Bobcats are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense (#2 Sun Belt rush offense, #3 pass) but they’ve had difficulty all season in terms of keeping focus for 60 minutes…..they go cold for stretches, and even when they’re hot, they fumble (8 FL, tied for last FBS)…That makes them hard to trust laying this many points vs a ULM team that lost by one point to App St two games ago…..The Warhawks have a good run game (#3 Sun Belt) and Texas St ranks #101 in the nation vs the run.
No leanage
42. Louisville -7.5 Pittsburgh (44.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 26 Pittsburgh 18.5
LUA-VUH is coming off one of their biggest wins in a long-time as they took down the mighty Notre Dame Fighting Irish at home last week…..They’re undefeated and have a schedule that gives them a legit shot to play for all the ACC marbles…..The Cards are #2 in the ACC in YPP offense and their D has been much better than expected…..Pitt is making a QB switch (YIPPEE) to something called a Christian Veilleux and that might be the spark they need to get SOMETHING going on offense….The Pitt D hasn’t been the killer of recent seasons but they’re still #3 in the ACC in sacks and #5 in YPP D…..We prefer the road team but the last time LUA-VUH was on the road (two games ago) they were life and death to beat NC State whilst scoring 13 points. ….and that was their only true road game of the season to date.
No leanage
43. South Carolina -2 Florida (51.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 26.75 Florida 24.75
Tempted to take the road dog in this spot as we see a SMIDGE of potential value with a team that has the much better defense (#3 SEC total defense, COCKS 2nd worst) but the Gators have been horrible on the road under HC Billy Napier and South Cackalacky’s HC Shane Beamer is 9-2 ATS as a favorite…..Gators better run game/OL…..COCKS with the better QB.
No leanage
44. Tennessee -3 Texas A&M (55)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -3
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 29 Texas A&M 26
This is a very similar game to the COCKS/Gators game in the sense that we are once again tempted to take the road dog but the Aggies are just soooooo much better at home under your boy Jimbo Fisher and Tennessee has won 11 consecutive games at home…..Best play on this BAD BOY may be the under and we’ll do a bit more work and see if it deserves our attention…..The Aggies have a great front seven and the Vols are a run-based team with an inconsistent THROW GAME.
No leanage
45. Tulane -4.5 Memphis (54.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -3
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 29.5 Memphis 25
We’ll take a nibble of the home team in this one…..The Tigers have only lost one game so far and that was to a very good Missouri team who just might be the 2nd best team in the SEC East…..They’re also 19-4 (!) SU under HC Ryan Silverfield at home and series has been a “home team” series over the last six games (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS)…..Tulane has been good but not great on offense and ranks #74 in the nation in total offense (LY #30)…..This is a yuuuge game for both teams in terms of AAC Championship implications and we expect a close game heading into the 4th Q.
Lean – Memphis +4.5
46. Ohio St -19.5 Purdue (50.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 35 Purdue 15.5
You can certainly make a case for the home dog in this one as the Ohio St offense has been hot and cold and the Buckeyes have Penn St on deck…..We’re just big fans of the Ohio St defense and note that they’ve allowed 3/7/10/14/17 in 5G so far….Purdue is good enough to score a few times but not sure they can cover over the span of a 60 minute grind.
No leanage
47. James Madison -6 Georgia Southern (58.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 32.25 Georgia Southern 26.25
The Dukes put up close to 700Y (!) LY vs the Eagles but found a way to lose a 45-38 thriller thanks in large part to a (-3) turnover margin…..It feels like a good revenge spot for James Madison and they’ll force the Eagles to be one-dimensional…..The Dukes are #1 in the nation in run defense (39 YPG)(!)…..Georgia Southern QB Davis Brin will definitely do some damage vs the weak JM secondary but recall he had 5 INT vs Wisconsin early this year in a game which the Eagles were very competitive…..Prefer the home team but were hoping for -3/-4 and here we are.
No leanage
48. Washington St -7.5 Arizona (57.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -9
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 32.5 Arizona 25
You have to think that the Cougars will bounce back after a lackluster effort at UCLA last week where their powerful THROW GAME couldn’t get going…..Arizona just played two of the best passing attacks in the nation and only lost to Washington by 7 and USC by 2 in 3OT……Tough spot for the Cats (3rd road game in 4 weeks, off 3OT loss) but they appear to be the most underrated team in the PAC 12, or at least in the conversation.
No leanage
49. North Texas -6 Temple (69) ……………MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -6
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 37.5 Temple 31.5
There will be plenty of plays and OODLES of points in this game as both teams move fast and Temple loves to chuck it around…..Temple has allowed 41/48/49 L3G and North Texas is more than capable of getting into the 40s vs the Owls stop unit……The Mean Green have rushed for 200+ AND passed for 267+ in each game since the Cal DEBACLE.
Lean – North Texas team total over 37.5
50. Navy -3 Charlotte (43) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Navy -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 23 Charlotte 20
The Navy rushing attack is starting to get going and whilst they lost a promising emerging QB in Blake Horvath to injury note that Tai Lavatai is a reliable veteran and RB Alex Tecza has been an ANIMAL L3G after starting to get a lot of work (163,82,137 rush yards, 3 TD)…..Charlotte has played ok on defense but they’re brutal on offense (#90 rush, #116 pass)….Navy has only turned the ball over 3 times this season, they rank #14 in fewest penalty yards/game, #27 in time of possession.
Lean – Navy -3
51. Ohio -5.5 Northern Illinois (44.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 25 Northern Illinois 19.5
The Bobcats are playing fantastic defense (#4 FBS YPP defense, #1 MAC) but the offense hasn’t been nearly as deadly as LY (#99 total offense, #80 rush, #97 pass)…..This is a rise in class for the Bobcats after blowout wins over Bowling Green and Kent S and the Huskies are starting to come around with a healthy R Lombardi at QB……They were right there with Toledo on road two week ago (L 35-33) and blew Akron to SMITHEREENS last week (W 55-14)…..We were waiting for a +7 as the number was sitting at +6.5 for a while then it blew thru +6 to +5.5…..We prefer the home dog but will wait until late Friday afternoon and see what happens…..If it hits +6 we’ll add to our lean/small play list…..Note the weather forecast is calling for wind and rain which will put points at a premium.
No leanage
52. Cincinnati -5 Iowa St (43) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -4
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 24 Iowa St 19
Another game with bad weather in the forecast and that should favor the home team who’s hungry for their first Big 12 win….The Bearcats are #3 in the Big 12 in rushing offense (Iowa St #8 run D) and #2 in run defense…..The Bearcats were competitive vs Oklahoma and outgained BYU on the road 498-295 but found a way to lose….Just not crazy about the price…..on the sidelines for now.
No leanage
53. Washington -3 Oregon (57) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 30 Oregon 27
This should be a very entertaining game between a pair of excellent teams that are both capable of winning the PAC 12 and making the CFP…..Washington has an elite QB and they’re very tough at home but we’ll roll with the road team in this one….1) Oregon has the more balanced offense and they lead the PAC 12 in rushing offense (#8 FBS, 225 YPG) 2) Oregon has the better defense (#2 PAC 10 YPP D; Wash #5) and they’ve been good vs the pass (#2 PAC 12 pass efficiency D)……Penix and company are probably the best in the business with the THROW GAME but at least the Ducks have a chance to make a few stops…3) Oregon is #2 in the PAC in sacks and #5 in TFL/game whilst the Huskies are DEAD LAST in sacks (six in five game) and #10 in TFL/game……4) Washington is 8-17 ATS L25 PAC 12 home games……The visiting team has won and covered the last three meetings……Oregon is 15-3 SU and ATS L18 games vs Washington……Oregon has a legit REVENGE angle working for them after losing a heartbreaker to Washington at home LY.
Official pick – Oregon +3 <sent 12:45pm Friday Oct 13>
Note – This is one of our favorite picks of the week. We’re currently playing all of our picks (“official” and small plays/leans) for the same amount but feel free to sprinkle a bit more if you agree with the analysis. It’s up to you. PLAY SAFE!
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review post (week 6) for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.