USC at Notre Dame
posted October 12
The Game
Here we go!
It’s a game we’ve been looking forward to since the summer as USC travels to South Bend to battle the Fighting Irish on Saturday night. USC boasts an undefeated mark of 6-0 but they’ve played a buttery-soft schedule (#85; Notre Dame #36) and they’ve struggled the last two weeks in games vs Colorado and Arizona. Notre Dame tossed in a CLUNKER last week at LUA-VUH and now have two losses on the season. They’re out of playoff contention but this is a big rivalry game and you have to believe they’ll be ready to go.
The Details
Notre Dame -3 USC (60)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Notre Dame -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Notre Dame 31.5 USC 28.5
Notre Dame offense vs USC defense
The Irish have been balanced on offense (#53 rush, #42 pass) but they’re definitely lacking explosive ability at the WR position. TE M Evans has had a fine year but it’s not ideal to have him lead the team in receiving yards and receptions (22-343). QB Sam Hartman has been solid overall but note his 3-3 TD to INT mark the L3G (3 INT vs LUA-VUH). RB A Estime is a TD waiting to happen (692, 6.6, 7 TD) and we expect him to have some big gainers on Saturday. USC’s stop unit has been bad (again) and rank #90 vs the rush and #89 in pass efficiency D. USC leads the PAC 12 in sacks (22) and they’ll have to get some heat on Hartman to help out the secondary.
USC offense vs Notre Dame defense
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner QB C Williams just might be BETTER this season (22-1 TD to INT, 11.0 YPA; 6 rush TD) but it’s important to note that this will be his toughest test this season by far. The WR group is absolutely loaded and RB M Lloyd is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season (519, 7.7). The Trojans have been balanced (17 rush TD, 23 pass TD) and will be able to take advantage of a Notre Dame UNDERBELLY that’s shown some holes L4G. They allowed 131Y on the ground vs C Michigan, 126 to Ohio St (4.7), 189 vs Duke (4.7) and 185 vs LUA-VUH (4.6). Their secondary has some talented doods but this USC THROW GAME is something they don’t see very often.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Rain shouldn’t be an issue during this game BUT the wind gusts are expected to top out around 30mph…..That’s a theoretical advantage for Notre Dame……The intrepid Phil Steele has the USC special teams ranked #4 in the FBS….thanks in large part to return DYNAMO Z Branch who should be back this week…..Notre Dame ranks #90.
Summary
We’ll grab the points in this one and believe that the combo of the USC offense and special teams will lead them to a cover. Their defense is gonna have issues but you can’t have everything. It’s not gonna be easy for Notre Dame to get up for ANOTHER yuuuuge test after playing Ohio St/Duke/LUA-VUH in consecutive games.
Conclusion
Lean – USC +3 -115 <note – market is currently split between +2.5 and +3; it’s not hard to find a +3 right now at -110 or -115>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review post (week 6) for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.