Penn St at Ohio St
posted October 19
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s time for the first BIG BOY game in the Big Ten East as Penn St travels to Columbus to battle Ohio St. Penn St has rolled to a 6-0 start vs a buttery-soft set of opponents but at least they’ve done it in dominating fashion outscoring those foes by a count of 266-48. Ohio St also boasts a perfect mark of 6-0 and they’ve got a road win over Notre Dame to brag about (W 17-14). It may have been a miracle to take down the Irish but they all count, BAYBEE.
Let’s goooooo!
The Details
Ohio St -4.5 Penn St (45.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 25 Penn St 20.5
Ohio St offense vs Penn St defense
The offense hasn’t performed at the lofty heights we are accustomed to seeing from Ohio St but QB K McCord has looked decent in his first season as starter as he’s got an 11-1 TD to INT ratio and a fine 9.7 YPA. The THROW GAME weaponry is the best BY FAR that Penn St has seen yet as McCord has several options including future 1st round NFL pick WR Marvin Harrison Jr and one of the best receiving TEs in the nation in Cade Stover. The pass protection has been decent (McCord sacked 7 times in 170 attempts) but the run blocking has been mediocre and that hasn’t allowed the Ohio St rushing attack to get going (#92 FBS). Penn St’s defense has been incredible (#1 FBS total D, #2 run D, #1 pass eff D, #2 sacks) but they’ve faced one of the most disgusting sets of offenses possible (WV, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, NW, UMass). Penn St has allowed 15/7/13/0/13/0 in six games.
Penn St offense vs Ohio St defense
The Nittany Lions have enjoyed consistent play from QB Drew Allar (12-0 TD to INT) but he’s only averaged 6.9 YPA and hasn’t been asked (or been able to) stretch the field. Their star RB combo of K Allen and N Singleton have been much less efficient this season (4.8, 4.1 YPC) so it makes you wonder about the run blocking. The good news is that Allar has only been sacked four times and Ohio St’s pass rush has been MEH and that means there should be plenty of time to throw. Ohio’s St defense has also been excellent playing a tougher set of offenses (#7 total D, #22 run D, #3 pass eff D) and they’ve allowed 3/7/10/14/17/7 over six games.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Penn St HC James Franklin is great at calling for onside kicks when he’s up by 65 points against MAC teams but he’s had trouble beating Michigan and Ohio St…..Specifically, Franklin is 1-8 SU vs Ohio St although it should be noted that he’s 7-2 ATS in those games….usually catching a bunch of points….Speaking of which, Penn St was a 15-16 point dog LY at home and now they’re just a 4-5 point dog on the road……#Respect for Penn St……The weather forecast looks good as we get close to gameday.
Summary
We’ll support the home team that we believe can make more plays on offense and Penn St QB Drew Allar is untested in tough environments such as the HORSESHOE. Penn St has played the #77 schedule (Ohio St #42) and we prefer HC Ryan Day in a big game vs James Franklin although we know Day isn’t everyone’s cup of tea.
Conclusion
Lean – Ohio St -4.5
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.