Week 8 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
“Official” plays are in blue. Leans/Small plays are in green.
We may make changes up until 5pm Friday. Will timestamp and note those changes as needed. UPDATE – that’s it for the week. Enjoy the games!!
- Southern Miss at South Alabama (Tuesday)
- MTSU at Liberty (Tuesday)
- Western Kentucky at Jacksonville St (Tuesday)
- FIU at Sam Houston (Wednesday)
- New Mexico St at UTEP (Wednesday)
- SMU at Temple (Friday)
- Rice at Tulsa (Thursday)
- Army at LSU
- Texas at Houston
- Nevada at San Diego St
- James Madison at Marshall (Thursday)
- UCLA at Stanford
- Hawaii at New Mexico
- UCF at Oklahoma
- Baylor at Cincinnati
- Oklahoma St at West Virginia
- Wisconsin at Illinois
- Northwestern at CORN
- Rutgers at Indiana
- Utah at USC
- Pittsburgh at Wake Forest
- Duke at Florida St
- Virginia at North Carolina
- Washington St at Oregon
- South Florida at Connecticut
- Buffalo at Kent St
- Akron at Bowling Green
- Texas Tech at BYU
- TCU at Kansas St
- Central Michigan at Ball St
- Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois
- Memphis at UAB
- Colorado St at UNLV
- Toledo at Miami Ohio
- Ole Miss at Auburn
- Minnesota at Iowa
- Boston College at Georgia Tech
- Arizona St at Washington
- Appalachian St at Old Dominion
- Coastal Carolina at Arkansas St
- ULM at Georgia Southern
- Clemson at Miami
- Utah St at San Jose St
- Air Force at Navy
- North Texas at Tulane
- Michigan at Michigan
- South Carolina at Missouri
- Mississippi St at WOO PIG
- Western Michigan at Ohio
- Charlotte at East Carolina
- Georgia St at Louisiana
- UTSA at Florida Atlantic
QUICK TAKES
1. South Alabama -17.5 Southern Miss (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -16
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 35.25 Southern Miss 17.75
The Jags haven’t played consistent football but they’re off a bye and the last time we saw them they were obliterating ULM 55-7….The same ULM team that came within a whisker of beating App St and Texas St….Southern Miss is also off a bye and have lost 5 straight….The offense has popped a few times vs turds but against good teams they’ve scored 13/3/13…..Jags have big date with the Cajuns up next…..Prefer the home team but price ain’t cheap, yo.
No leanage
2. Liberty -13.5 MTSU (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -12
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 34.25 MTSU 20.75
Another game where the fav is probably the way to go but the price is a bit prohibitive….The Flames are 6-0 and appear to be on a DATE WITH DESTINY to face Western Kentucky in the CUSA title game…..but we’re getting ahead of ourselves…..The Flames pass defense is excellent (13 INT) and is a bad match-up for the MTSU THROW GAME…..Liberty 27-6 SU at home since joining the FBS……MTSU 0-3 SU away with three blowout losses….all to good teams tho.
No leanage
3. Western Kentucky -7 Jacksonville St (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -6
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 34 Jacksonville St 27
The TOPPERS are off a bye and have a yuuuge game with Liberty next week….QB Austin Reed is still dealing (14-3 TD to INT) but he’s only completing 61% of his passes at 6.8 YPA (65%, 7.9 LY)….Jacksonville St is #3 in the conference in run D and #3 in pass efficiency D and they’re +9 in t/o margin (WKU +8)…..The Gamecocks’ defense has dominated the lesser opponents on the schedule but also allowed 28+ four times (good offenses)……Keep an eye on the COCKS’ QB situation as each of their top-two starters are listed as Q after last week’s game…..They’ve got a license to keep this within one score but will wait for clarity on the injury front.
No leanage
4. Sam Houston -5 FIU (39)…………MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -4
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 22 FIU 17
We’ll take a stab at the over as gross as that may sound…..FIU games are 5-0-1 to the “over 39” so far vs FBS teams (39/85/41/44/51/41) and rank 2nd last in CUSA in YPP D and #7 in sacks….They’ve got some explosiveness on offense with two legit RBs and a star WR in Kris Mitchell (636, 18.2, 4 TD)…..Sam Houston’s offense has looked much better recently and note that QB K Shoemaker has thrown for 299/255/285 L3G……The Bearkats D hasn’t been as tough since the first two games when they allowed 257/258 total yards….L4G…..538/393/448/458……..They’ve only booked 7 sacks all year (#125 FBS) so that’ll help the porous FIU OL…..Sam Houston very thin at RB due to injuries but they managed to get things to work ok last week and it’s unclear if they’ll have any of the injured doods back as we approach press time.
Lean – Over 39
5. New Mexico St -3 UTEP (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico St -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 26 UTEP 23
It’s another edition of the I-10 rivalry…..UTEP is 10-3 SU since 2009….MINER NATION saved their season (temporarily) last week as they finally found a QB….Cade McConnell had a fine game (11/17 262, 2-0 TD to INT) and the ground attack will always be there…..The Aggies can’t afford another conference loss as that would put them two games behind WKU and Liberty in the loss column…..New Mexico St has the best player on the field in QB D Pavia and have been improving on D……Also desperation time for MINER NATION trying to stay alive for a bowl game and they’re much better at home than ON THE HIGHWAY….Tough call.
No leanage
6. SMU -19.5 Temple (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -18
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 38.5 Temple 19
The Mustangs are one of a small handful of AAC teams with an undefeated conference record and they get HOOT HOOT this week who’s playing horrible football right now….SMU didn’t impress last week at E Carolina (up 14-10 well into 2nd half) and Temple may or may not be without starting QB EJ Warner who was surprisingly held out of last week’s game…..They need him to go in this one BIGLY.
No leanage
7. Tulsa -3 Rice (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulsa -4
Vegas Implied Score – Tulsa 30.25 Rice 27.25
It’s a Thursday night battle between two teams in the UNSEEMLY MIDSECTION of the AAC…..Both teams are 3-3 and that makes this a very important game for bowl aspirations….Rice has the #1 passing offense in the AAC behind QB JT Daniels but the worst run game….Tulsa is more balanced on offense and they’ve played the tougher schedule (#69 vs #116)….Also note that Rice is 6-23 SU on the road under HC Mike Bloomgren…..Prefer the home team but wouldn’t lay more than a FG which is where the line is at the majority of shops as we approach press time…..Passing for now but may do some additional work on this one.
No leanage
8. LSU -30 Army (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -31.5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 43.75 Army 13.75
The LSU offense is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE thanks to a Heisman-caliber season from QB J Daniels (75%, 22-3 TD to INT, 515 rush, 4 TD) and they’ve scored 49/49/48 L3G….They can name the score but it’s hard to know how much time Army can milk with the rushing attack and how long the Tigers will actually care about the game.
No leanage
9. Texas -23 Houston (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -21
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 42.25 Houston 19.25
The Longhorns will be dying to get back onto the field after the loss to Oklahoma and thankfully they can ease back into Big 12 action vs a team that plays horrible defense….The COOGS are coming off an unbelievable comeback win over WEST BY GOD VIRGINIA and are getting good QB play from Donovan Smith….They’ll also have a bit of an edge to their play being that this is a little brother (or infant brother) going up against big brother……Texas will almost certainly roll but the price ain’t cheap.
No leanage
10. San Diego St -13.5 Nevada (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -14
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 31.50 Nevada 18
The Aztecs scrapped and clawed their way to a seven-point win at Hawaii in their last game but they’re still playing hideous defense (#10 Mountain West total D) and getting sketchy QB play….Nevada is DUMPSTER JUICE but it’s important to note that they have their moments….They lost to Kansas by 7, fell to an explosive Texas St team by 11, and they put up almost 500Y vs UNLV last week (-3 in t/o margin)…..Price looks about right…..Note that SD St is below .500 ATS as a HF under HC Brady Hoke…..Would want +17 to take the dog but here we are.
No leanage
11. James Madison -3.5 Marshall (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 27.75 Marshall 24.25
The Dukes are 6-0 but OF COURSE this is the NCAA so they’re ineligible to win the Sun Belt title because they….well they….but they….oh well, just forget it…..Marshall is one of 5 (!) teams tied “atop” the Sun Belt East and we’re not sure what in the SAM HILL has happened to their run defense…..#116 in the nation…..whilst at the same time their formerly mediocre QB C Fancher has thrown for 300+ in two consecutive games…..James Madison is a ROCK vs the run (#1 FBS run D, 43 YPG) and they’re #1 in the Sun Belt in passing efficiency……They’ve escaped by the skin of their teeth in three road games but they won them nonetheless……Marshall beat the Dukes LY 26-12…..is this a revenge spot?…. Prefer the road team as they JUST WIN BABY but will wait to see if we can bag a -3…..very unlikely but not impossible.
No leanage
12. UCLA -17 Stanford (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 36 Stanford 19
Stanford was down 29-CACK at the half last week but completed the biggest comeback in program history when they eventually beat the Buffs in OT (see AWARD-WINNING Week in Review blog post)……They’re still lacking talent at several places on the roster but they’ve been good vs UCLA (10-5 ATS L15) and their recent home loss to Arizona (L 21-20) is looking waaayyyy better right now as the Wildcats are an emerging JUGGERNAUT in the PAC 12…..UCLA still plays great defense but they’ve thrown 10 INTs (#125 FBS) and what do they have to play for now that they’ve lost two conference games?……UCLA has a significant talent edge but the price is too steep, yo.
No leanage
13. New Mexico -2 Hawaii (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -1
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 30 Hawaii 28
One of the most unpredictable games on the board according to our DEEP MOUNTAIN WEST INSIDERS…….Hawaii has shown flashes from time to time but they play no defense and can’t run the ball……We expected more from New Mexico last week and they got pulverized by San Jose St……Note that Hawaii HC Timmy Chang is 0-9 SU on the road……GUN TO THE HEAD would take New Mexico but taking a seat for now.
No leanage
14. Oklahoma -19 UCF (65)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -18
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 42 UCF 23
The Sooners come into this one off a bye and the last time we saw them they took down Texas on a last second TD pass…..QB D Gabriel is having a season worthy of Heisman consideration (16-2 TD to INT, 5 rush TD) and the D ranks #3 in the Big 12 in YPP defense…..UCF should have QB J R Plumlee back in action and the Knights are #1 in the Big 12 in rushing…..The problem for UCF is a run D that’s the worst in the Big 12 (197 YPG) and whilst the Sooners prefer to do their major work thru the air….the fact that they’ll be able to do whatever they want on offense makes it tricky to take the dog……We’d want +21 to think about it.
No leanage
15. Cincinnati -2.5 Baylor (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -1
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 27.25 Baylor 24.75
Neither team is trustworthy at this point….We expected more from the Bearcats last week with a chance to win their first Big 12 game at home vs a mediocre Iowa St team and they SHAT the BED…..Baylor is off a bye but their D is DUMPSTER JUICE (38/35/39 L3G) so it gives Cincinnati some hope.
No leanage
16. West Virginia -3.5 Oklahoma St (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -3
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 27 Oklahoma St 23.5
We’ll go with the hot hand in this one…..The Pokes have played three consecutive solid games after the South Alabama DEBACLE….they played Iowa St straight up on the road and lost by 7 points whilst holding them to 74 rush yds….and they just took down (and outgained) Kansas St and Kansas in back-to-back weeks at home…..The offense is all of the sudden balanced and QB Alan Bowman doesn’t look bad…..WV is coming off a brutal Hail Mary HEARTBREAKER loss at Houston and before that they were outgained in wins over Texas Tech and TCU….Pokes are 7-1 ATS L8 vs WV but the Mountaineers did get them LY…..Pokes’ D matches up well with what WV wants to do on offense (run) and you gotta give the head coaching edge to Gundy, AMIRITE?
Lean – Oklahoma St +3.5
17. Wisconsin -2.5 Illinois (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 22.5 Illinois 20
We prefer the road team who’s playing good defense (14/17/13/15 points allowed L4G) BUT the yuuuge concern is a new starting QB making his first career start….T Mordecai wasn’t playing well but it’s unclear what we’ll get from backup B Locke….Illinois took down Maryland with a last second FG last week and are an inconsistent bunch led by a QB in L Altmyer who’s thrown more INTs than TDs (8-9)…..Badgers have won 11 of L13 vs Illinois but recall that Illinois smoked them LY 34-10 in Madison…..May come back to this BAD BOY later in the week.
No leanage
18. CORN -11.5 Northwestern (42.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – CORN -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – CORN 27 Northwestern 15.5
It’s a bad match-up for the Cats’ run defense (last Big Ten; 268 vs Duke, 244 vs Gophers) but CORN doesn’t have much explosiveness (or depth) at RB/WR…..The good news is that they’re #2 in the Big Ten in rushing (#1 YPC) and should be able to control the game IF (!) they stop turning the ball over (-7, worst Big Ten)….One way or another Northwestern is 3-3 and they’ve got a win over Minnesota……Visiting team is 8-3 ATS L11…..Prefer the dog catching double digits as it won’t be easy for CORN to get separation……..Still mulling this one over.
No leanage
19. Rutgers -5 Indiana (40)……………MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 22.5 Indiana 17.5
Rutgers pulled off a comeback win over SPARTY last week and now have a chance to guarantee a BOWL BID with their 6th win before heading into a bye week….They’ve destroyed their four weak opponents this season (NW, Temple, Wagner, Va Tech) by a combined score of 147-33…. mind you all those games were at home…..Rutgers destroyed Indiana 38-3 when they visited Bloomington in 2021….Indiana has beaten an FCS turd and Akron in 3 OT whilst being outgained 474-282.
Lean – Rutgers -5
20. USC -7 Utah (56)……………MEGALOCKS line – USC -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – USC 31.5 Utah 24.5
The Trojans are tough to back this week after the SLAUGHTER in SOUTH BEND…..It wasn’t the stop unit’s fault this time tho as they held the Irish to well under 300Y but Notre Dame didn’t have to make an effort on offense as QB C Williams kept throwing the ball to the wrong team…..USC is still one of two undefeated teams in the PAC 12 (Washington) so it’s not like their season is toast….Utah will try and win another one without starting QB C Rising and even tho their offense if very limited the defense is still playing lights out and they rushed for over 300Y last week vs Cal…..Dog has covered 6L7 in the series…..Obviously prefer the explosiveness of USC but Utah can win this one with a methodical and relatively mistake-free game…..Prefer the dog but sitting this one out for now.
No leanage
21. Wake Forest -2 Pittsburgh (47)……………MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -1
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 24.5 Pittsburgh 22.5
Two of the more mediocre ACC teams go head-to-head in Winston-Salem and this is as much of a tossup as you’ll find this Saturday…..Wake sits at 3-3 but they’ve lost three consecutive games and scored just 16/12/13 in those losses….Maybe coming home after two road games will give them a spark?…..Pitt has been TRASH for most of the season but they SHOCKED the WORLD last week by taking down previously undefeated LUA-VUH at home…..WF has the QB and coaching edge but Pitt may have found some life??…..They’re 2-4 and need every win they can get….Likely this is a one-score affair heading into the final five minutes or so.
No leanage
22. Florida St -14 Duke (49.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 31.75 Duke 17.75
It’s all about Duke’s star QB Riley Leonard and his availability….He’s listed as “questionable” but the line certainly suggests that he won’t be able to go….Duke’s defense is still top notch but we can’t back something called a Henry Belin at QB (4/12, 107Y last week) even tho he’ll be coached-up and ready to go……Florida St has one of the most significant home field advantages in college football (when they are good like this season) so we’ll watch with interest but keep the wallet buttoned-up.
No leanage
23. North Carolina -23.5 Virginia (56.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -21
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 40 Virginia 16.5
The Tar Heels shot down YOUR Miami Hurricanes last week (W 41-31) and are one of three undefeated squads left in the ACC (Duke, Florida St)…..Don’t look now but they could be 9-0 very soon given dates with Georgia Tech and Campbell up next….They’ve got some holes on the back end of the defense and the Virginia THROW GAME is good enough to make some plays in this one…..Big worry is a Virginia OL that’s allowed 22 sacks (2nd worst ACC) and they’ve got ZERO pass rush which is very bad when playing UNC and QB Drake Maye…..It’s a rivalry game with Virginia off a bye and we’ll very likely add this one to the card in some fashion once a solid +24 pops up….There are a few out there now but it’s mostly +23.5 and it’s hard to believe books will be taking loads of Virginia money any time soon…..Stay tuned.
No leanage
24. Oregon -20 Washington St (62.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 41.25 Washington 21.25
The Ducks played a phenomenal game last week vs the Huskies but fell a bit short…..All of their season-long goals are still achievable but the margin for error is now gone….They are still one of the best teams in the nation and their #1 PAC 12 rushing offense (#8 FBS) should have fun vs the Washington St run D (#10 PAC 12)….Oregon is great on 3rd downs and we think they’ll have the ball LONG TIME in this one….Washington St’s season is going GLUG GLUG GLUG after losing to UCLA and losing by 38 (!) at home to Arizona……They put up 216/234 yards in those games and scored a total of 23 points….Oregon’s D is solid and they’ve allowed 7/10/6/6 vs opponents excluding road tilts at Texas Tech and Washington.
Lean – Washington St team total under 21.25
25. South Florida -2 Connecticut (54)……………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – South Florida 28 Connecticut 26
The Bulls have allowed over FITTTY points in each of their last two games and that’s not a sign of good things to come when you’re hitting the road to play in the middle of nowhere….UConn has been a disappointment but they did manage to beat Rice on the road in their last game so at least they haven’t quit…..They’re off a bye and should be able to give the Bulls a good game…..TOSSUP CITY, yo.
No leanage
26. Buffalo -7 Kent St (44.5)………………..MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -7
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 25.75 Kent St 18.75
The Bulls are now 2-5 after losing to Bowling Green at home last week and the season is as close to OVER that it can be without being OVER as they still have dates with Toledo, Ohio, and Miami Ohio to come……Kent St is still fighting and note that they outgained Eastern Michigan 343-218 in their 28-14 loss last week….Was hoping to see a +10 but here we are.
No leanage
27. Bowling Green -7.5 Akron (39.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 23.5 Akron 16
Bowling Green is the better team but Akron has lost four (!) games by single digits and kept digging until the end last week in a 7-point road loss at Central Michigan last week…..Bowling Green is on a 10-4 ATS run vs the Zips but they’ve been one of the most unpredictable teams in the nation this season (good and bad).
No leanage
28. Texas Tech -4 BYU (52)……………MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 28 BYU 24
The Red Raiders are the better squad on both sides of the football but they might be down to their 3rd string QB in Jake Strong who looked ok at times last week but he threw 3 INT……BYU is 3-0 SU at home including a win over Cincinnati in which they were outgained significantly but still GOT ER DONE…..BYU #132 in the nation in rushing offense (Hawaii).
No leanage
29. Kansas St -6.5 TCU (59)……………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 32.75 TCU 26.25
The Cats got FIVE TDs from freshman QB Avery Johnson last week and he’ll be splitting duties with the disappointing Will Howard (9-7 TD to INT)…..Johnson can run like THE WIND but he hasn’t been asked to do much thru the air…..Kansas St’s defense is clearly down a notch this season and they’re even in the turnover department after finishing up +12 (!) in 2022…..TCU’s run defense has been a bit of an issue (#6 Big 12) but the defense has been decent overall (#4 Big 12 YPP)…..Kansas St allowed 174 yards rushing to Oklahoma St and 182 to Texas Tech…..and they’re giving up passing yards to everyone……Smells like a one-score game even with TCU using backup QB Josh HOOVER (439 yards, 4-2 TD to INT last week) …..Kansas St was outgained in each of the L2G…..TCU has won the yardage battle in every game since the opener vs Colorado (565-541).
Lean – TCU +6.5
30. Central Michigan -4.5 Ball St (40.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -6
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 22.5 Ball St 18
Ball St has been disgusting this season but they were tied with TOLEDO last week before the Rockets got a TD with under a minute left to win the game….FIRE UP CHIPS have four wins but they rank #103 in the nation in total offense and #103 in total defense and injuries are starting to pile up…..Road team was won 6 straight in the series……Prefer the road team but don’t wanna lay more than -3 at this point and here we are.
No leanage
31. Northern Illinois -12 Eastern Michigan (45.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -10
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 28.75 Eastern Michigan 16.75
Hard to back either side in this one as the Eagles are in ROAD DOG MODE and HC C Creighton is an impossible 31-14-1 ATS as an away puppy….NIU is 3-9 ATS as home chalk under HC Thomas Hammock and they’re 1-9 ATS L10 overall at home (covered last week vs Ohio)….We’ll take a stab with the under as Eastern Michigan’s defense has been decent (#3 MAC pass eff D) and their games vs FBS opponents this season have totaled 31/36/21/49/34/42…so FWIW 6-0 under the current number of 45.5….The Eagles rank #130 in YPP offense and average a mere 253 YPG (#132).
Lean – under 45.5
32. Memphis -6 UAB (63)……………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 34.5 UAB 28.5
UAB is starting to play a better brand of football overall and won’t be an easy out down the stretch….L3G they lost at Tulane by 12, destroyed USF, and outgained UTSA whilst losing by 21 (-2 in t/o)….They’re balanced and can SCORE the FOOTBALL but their D is TRASH…..Memphis has been playing in a lot of close games….winning team margin of victory….4/7/3/10 L4G….Worried about how they bounce back from last week’s home game vs Tulane where they had a double-digit lead and then SHAT the BED.
No leanage
33. UNLV -8 Colorado St (64)……………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 36 Colorado St 28
If you haven’t seen the highlights of the Colorado St/Boise St game from last week…..just the last 5 minutes…..check it out! WOW…..ANYHOO….it was their first ever win over the Broncos and it was done in impossible fashion…..Probably a letdown spot but more worrisome is your boy QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi who’s a big play waiting to happen for both teams (14 TD….11 INT!)….UNLV has been one of the nicest surprises of the year and they only need one more win to make their first bowl game since 2013 (!)…..For the young SPARKIES out there….2013 was a long time ago…….Men couldn’t get pregnant and your own government wasn’t trying to kill you with death boosters or burn down your city and label it as “climate change”…..The Rebels are the more trustworthy team but the line looks about right.
No leanage
34. Toledo -1.5 Miami Ohio (48.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 25 Miami Ohio 23.5
We’ve got these teams as the top-two in the MAC (slightly ahead of Ohio) and they’re both on top of their respective divisions as we get close to press time….Miami has a massive game with Ohio next week that is most likely for all the MAC EAST MARBLES….Toledo appears to have smooth sailing to the MAC West title but who knows in this awesome yet KOOKY conference….The Redhawks are slightly better on defense…..Toledo owns the slightly better offense…..We’ve got this lined at a pick em and would take either team at +3 but here we are.
No leanage
35. Ole Miss -6.5 Auburn (55)……………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -7
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 30.75 Auburn 24.25
The Rebels are 5-1 and are still technically alive in the SEC West hunt but they’ll need some help whilst they attempt to run the table….The bye week should help the overall health of several offenses stars (in theory) but some of their key weaponry just can’t seem to get/stay healthy…..Auburn showed Georgia what they could do at home when they’ve got 100% focus and recall that Tigers’ HC Hugh Freeze spent quite a few years as the HC at Ole Miss (with success) before getting thrown out of town…..Ole Miss only managed 301Y vs ROLL TIDE and 349Y vs WOO PIG……Hard to see Auburn having enough firepower to stay close but the Rebels aren’t exactly trustworthy.
No leanage
36. Iowa -3.5 Minnesota (31.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -3
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 17.5 Minnesota 14
Nope, there isn’t any major snowstorm coming into town….It’s just the disgusting Iowa offense (dead last FBS, 247 YPG) rearing it’s ugly head on a Saturday afternoon once again…..They’ve still found a way to win six games tho with solid defense and special teams and Minnesota isn’t exactly a team we’re fond of backing……3-3 overall and the worst Gophers team we’ve witnessed in a while.
No leanage
37. Georgia Tech -4.5 Boston College (59.5)……………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 32 Boston College 27.5
The Eagles have won two games in a row to get to 3-3 but their conquests haven’t exactly been noteworthy (Holy Cross, Virginia, Army)…..We prefer them in this spot but they’ve allowed 24+ to every opponent and rank #127 in the nation in pass efficiency D which will be a problem vs GT QB H King……The Yellow Jackets beat Miami and lost to Bowling Green so who knows what we’ll get from them, yo.
No leanage
38. Washington -27 Arizona St (60) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -24
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 43.5 Arizona St 16.5
We’ll rock with the road dog in this BAD BOY as the Huskies are coming off a physical and emotional win over their rated rivals from Eugene whilst the Sun Devils have been playing a much better brand of football as they’ve gotten healthier…..particularly at QB…..In their L3G they lost by 14 to USC, beat Cal on the road, and lost on a last second FG to Colorado…..They’re off a bye and have covered an impossible 14L15 in the series.
Lean – Arizona St +27
39. Appalachian St -6.5 Old Dominion (53.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -8
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 30 Old Dominion 23.5
Prefer the road team in this contest as we see some “value” in the number but they’ll need to bounce back after losing a tough one to Coastal Carolina and recall that just two games ago they only managed to beat ULM by a single point….The path for success for Old Dominion is clearly making things work on the ground as the Mountaineers have a very SOFT UNDERBELLY (#115 FBS rush defense) whilst the Monarchs have done some good things on the ground from time to time (152 YPG)….They’re also off a bye and note that they’ve already SHOCKED the WORLD once this season at home (beat Cajuns 38-31)….Mountaineers star RB N Noel is a game-time decision as we approach press time……Tough call.
No leanage
40. Coastal Carolina -10 Arkansas St (61) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -10
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 30.5 Arkansas St 20.5
We’ve got this one line right at the number…..The CHANTS just beat App St for the first time ever (!) and are still in the hunt in the Sun Belt East but they’ll need to win out…..J Madison isn’t eligible and Coastal is one game behind a FIVE-WAY TIE for first place…..Arkansas St has started to turn some heads with the emergence of QB Jaylen Raynor (10-1 TD to INT, 2 rush TD) but the Red Wolves are ranked #93 in total offense and #125 in total defense……BACK DOOR should be wide open but we’ll take a seat and pass for now.
No leanage
41. Georgia Southern -17 ULM (59.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 38.25 ULM 21.25
The Eagles haven’t done anything wrong when you think about it…..4-2 record so far….Lost on the road vs Wisconsin but they were (-6)(!) in t/o margin in that one…..And they were blown out by a rock solid James Madison team last week (L 41-13) despite being only outgained to the tune of 384-368…….The Warhawks have been better than they’re 2-4 record suggests as they’ve got a pair of one-point losses to good teams on their resume (App St, Texas St)…..They’ve also been blown out a few times and we always prefer them as a home dog under HC Terry Bowden.
No leanage
42. Clemson -3 Miami (48.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 25.75 Miami 22.75
The Tigers have been disappointing on offense this season when playing any defense with a pulse (#8 ACC YPP) and they rank #12 in the ACC in 20+ yard plays…..The stop unit has still been stout (#1 ACC YPP) and they’ll provide a stern test for a Miami offense that’s struggled with turnovers the last two weeks (NINE)(!)….The good news for YOUR Hurricanes is that their front seven should be able to hold up vs Clemson’s OL and the Tigers don’t have the weapons at WR to give the Canes fits…..Line looks about right….Slight preference to Miami but Clemson is off a bye and Clemson is 7-1 ATS L8 in the series.
No leanage
43. San Jose St -4 Utah St (66) ……………MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 35 Utah St 31
The “over” was on our radar screen heading into the week but we were hoping for something around 62….Both teams can SCORE the FOOTBALL and neither team plays defense of any kind….Utah St is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS vs San Jose St but the Spartans have played the much tougher schedule……May come back to the over before we finalize the card late Friday afternoon but passing for now.
No leanage
44. Air Force -10.5 Navy (34.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -9
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 22.5 Navy 12
We’ll side with the home dog in this one who’s starting to play better football with the emergence of RB A Tecza (8.1 YPC; 75/137/82/163 L4G) and a defense that’s registered 16 (!) sacks in the L3G…..That typically doesn’t mean much when playing another service academy but note that AF will be without starting QB Zac Larrier who’s been phenomenal this season and very deadly thru the air (71%, 4-0 TD to INT, 16.7 YPA!)…..Projected starter Jensen Jones has been with the Falcons since 2020 and only thrown ONE pass…..So whilst the Falcons love to kill you with passes sprinkled here and there….It’s more likely that THROW GAME negative plays will happen with Jensen (sacks, INT)…..Jensen is a very good and tough runner tho….Navy has played four dangerous QBs (almost beat Memphis) but they easily handled the two teams who couldn’t throw….Beat Wagner 24-CACK and Charlotte 14-CACK…..The home team has won 9L10 SU in the series (7-3 ATS) and the Falcons are 3-8 L11 ATS as non-conference favs…..AF beat Navy 13-10 LY in Colorado Springs as 14-point favs.
Official play – Navy +10.5 -108 <sent 3:13pm Oct 19>
45. Tulane -20.5 North Texas (63) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -18.5
Vegas Implied Score -Tulane 41.75 North Texas 21.25
North Texas is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE under QB Chandler Rogers and the Mean Green have put up 200+ yards rushing and 200+ yards passing in every game since the opener….The problem is a defense that’s one of the most things you’ve ever seen and Tulane has a yuuuuge edge in the trenches….Still….NT will get some points but will it be enough to cover?…..Pass for now but gonna see if a +21 pops up.
No leanage
46. Michigan -24 Michigan St (46) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -23
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 35 Michigan St 11
It’s tough to go against the Wolverines even tho they’ve played a comically easy schedule……Was their toughest game UNLV? Rutgers?…..That being said their margins of victory have been 27/28/25/24/38/42/45……Sparty has been playing better football over the L3G and are 12-2-1 ATS L15 vs BIG BROTHER……But coming back to Michigan….they’ve held every opponent to 7 points or less other than Minnesota who “exploded” for 10 points…..This is probably the last game that Michigan St will care about all season and we expect max effort……Will it be enough?….Will the Wolverines want to avenge the TRAVESTY IN THE TUNNEL after last year’s game in which there was some extracurricular activity instigated by the Spartans? Prefer the dog to somehow keep this one in check but will stew on it the rest of the afternoon and see if we get to the window.
No leanage
47. Missouri -7.5 South Carolina (59.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -7
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 33.5 South Carolina 26
It’s definitely not a stretch to think or believe that Missouri is the 2nd best team in the SEC East……They’re getting fine QB play out of Brady Cook (14-3 TD to INT) and the defense has been good enough although they’ve allowed 21+ in each of their last five games…..The COCKS blew the game vs Florida last week and now find themselves in deep water in terms of making a bowl game (2-4) despite the heroic play of QB Spencer Rattler who’s put the team on his back for a good chunk of the season (74%, 11-4 TD to INT)……Line looks about right…..South Cackalacky is in desperation mode….Missouri has a bye and then Georgia up next…..Note that the COCKS have played the #1 toughest schedule according to Sagarin.
No leanage
48. WOO PIG -6.5 Mississippi St (48) ……………MEGALOCKS line – WOO PIG -7
Vegas Implied Score – WOO PIG 27.25 Mississippi St 20.75
This game comes down to which side of the WOO PIG argument you support…..Are the Razorbacks just too worn out right now to put up a good effort after facing a KILLER four-game stretch? They faced LSU/Texas AM/Ole Miss/ROLL TIDE in a row….They were competitive but outgained on each occasion…..It’s also their 8th consecutive week of football (bye next)…..OR…..do you believe that WOO PIG is battle-tested and will enjoy a yuuuge drop in class?…..Tough to say….Miss St has been a disappointment but they’re rested off a bye week…..Margin of victory (WOO PIG defeat) in their last five games…..7/3/12/7/3 so it’s not crazy to think this one might be a one-score game heading into the final frame.
No leanage
49. Ohio -17 Western Michigan (52.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -14
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 34.75 Western Michigan 17.75
The Bobcats are still playing excellent defense (MAC #1 YPP) but the offense continues to struggle…..They rank #105 in the nation in total offense (LY #39) and QB Kurtis Rourke just hasn’t been the same since his injury (and loss of weapons)……63%, 8-5 TD to INT, 6.9 YPA (69%, 25-4, 9.2 LY!)…..Western Michigan has played a tougher schedule (especially 4L5G) and are playing their best football of the season…..Note that Ohio has the massive game with Miami Ohio up next.
Lean – Western Michigan +17
50. East Carolina -6.5 Charlotte (40.5) ……………MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -8
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 23.5 Charlotte 17
Some type of “under” is probably the way to go as ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR the Pirates have scored 17 or fewer in four of five games vs FBS opposition whilst Charlotte has scored 7/16/0 L3G…..Also note that Charlotte plays decent defense for a scrub team and EC has allowed fewer than 100Y on the ground in each of their L3G…..Prefer the under or a derivative of that…..Another one that we may come back to in the afternoon.
No leanage
51. Louisiana -3.5 Georgia St (63) ……………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -2
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 33.25 Georgia St 29.75
This promises to be a wild Sun Belt affair with both teams still in the hunt in their respective divisions…..Each team has an exciting dual-threat QB and neither team plays much defense…..We will note that at least the Panthers have been stout vs the run (#3 Sun Belt) whilst the Cajuns have had a lot of trouble stopping the run (#83 FBS)…..Georgia St’s only loss came against a stout D (Troy) and they’ll be able to run the offense as needed…..Georgia St is +4 in t/o margin and Louisiana is last in the Sun Belt in that regard (-6)……Georgia St is 2-0 SU away from home and overall they’ve got the two best wins (at Coastal Carolina, Marshall)…..Louisiana is 6-0 SU vs Georgia St but 0-4-2 ATS and the INTREPID Phil Steele reminds us that four of the last five meetings have been decided by four points or less.
Lean – Georgia St +3.5
52. UTSA -3 Florida Atlantic (58) ……………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -1
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 30.5 Florida Atlantic 27.5
This is one of the more underrated match-ups of the card as a pair of undefeated AAC teams go head-to-head in Boca Raton…..The Owls appear have gotten things together after the bye week as they rushed for 234Y in a win over Tulsa and then exploded for 587 yards of offense vs USF……The pass rush has also come alive as they’ve booked 12 sacks in their L3G after tallying just ONE in their previous three contests….UTSA has started to get the offense rolling (90 points combined L2G vs Temple and UAB) but the defense is struggling (37/45/34/20 L4G) and note that they’ve been outgained in every game since the Sept 9 win over Texas St.
Official pick – FAU +3 -120 <sent 4:38 pm EST Oct 20>
<note you can find +3 -110 at several major shops in Vegas; +3 -110 is hard to find offshore but +3 -114 to -120 is widely available; We’ll call it +3 -120 for grading purposes>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review post (week 6) for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.