Tennessee at Alabama
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE.
It’s the 3rd Saturday in October and that means it’s time for some SWEET VOLS VS TIDE ACTION. Alabama has been grinding and picking up wins keeping their SEC West (and more?) hopes alive. Tennessee is in a three-way tie for 2nd in the SEC East and are coming off a win over Texas A&M. The Vols sit at 5-1 but will be playing in just their 2nd true road game of the season.
The Details
ROLL TIDE -8.5 Tennessee (48)
MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -10
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 28.25 Tennessee 19.75
ROLL TIDE offense vs Tennessee defense
The Tide have been quite the scene on offense. The run game has been ok with Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams but Alabama’s overall rushing rank (#73) has been SEVERELY impacted by sack yardage as they’ve allowed an impossible 31 sacks (22 during the entire 2022 season; 4+ in six consecutive games). The most pleasant surprise on offense has been the DEEP BALL as QB Jalen Milroe has hit lots of deep shots and is averaging well over 10 YPA. Tennessee has been really good on defense (#17 FBS total D, #20 run D, #24 pass eff D) whilst piling up 24 sacks (#3 SEC). It should be noted however that Florida rushed for 183Y in the Vols’ only true road game and that sets up well for Alabama if they can come up with a decent game plan.
Tennessee offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
Yikes. This is not YO MOMMA’s Tennessee offense. Actually, it’s not even last year’s offense. The Vols have been rushing the ball just fine (#6 FBS) but they’re getting almost ZERO explosiveness in the THROW GAME and they’re pretty much NEUTERED without #1 WR Bru McCoy who’s OFY. Alabama’s strength is stopping the run (#18 FBS, 104 YPG) so this will be a battle of strength vs strength. Tennessee struggled with the rushing attack (and penalties) in their only true road test at Florida so if they can’t get the ball moving on the ground it could be a long day for a sketchy Joe Milton at QB who’s averaging a measly 6.9 YPA (H Hooker 9.5 YPA LY). It figures to be a struggle for Tennessee on offense in this game.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
This is a yuuuge revenge spot for ROLL TIDE as they lost at Tennessee last season in a 52-49 BARNBURNER……ROLL TIDE is 12-5 ATS L17 in the series.
Summary
We expect Alabama to grind away and not give up much on defense. It won’t be pretty but we forecast a double-digit win in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
Conclusion
Lean – ROLL TIDE -8.5 <note – you should be able to find a -8 if you shop around>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
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Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.