Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 9 Boxscore and Wagering review.
Let’s goooooooo!
Boxscore review:
ACC
Pittsburgh 41 Syracuse 13 – This had to be seen to be believed….Panthers with THREE (!!) pick sixes in the first half, at one point the Panthers were up 17-CACK and they only had 8 yards of total offense……327-217 yard edge for Syracuse (!) so yes, this game had a misleading final in terms of how well both teams played overall, Pitt was +5 in turnover margin.
Louisville 31 Boston College 27 – YIKES….Boston College started fast up 20-zip (!) and then LUA-VUH came storming back in the 2nd half to bag the win……461-318 yard edge for LUA-VUH who were the much better team but (-3) in turnover margin.
Miami 36 Florida St 14 – YOUR Miami Hurricanes stomp out the Seminoles…..445-248 yard edge…..Florida St did a good job with Cam Ward and the THROW GAME (22/35, 208, 5.9, 0-0) but allowed 230 yards on the ground….The Seminoles have Charleston Southern on the schedule so they should win another game this season.
SMU 28 Duke 27 (OT) – The Mustangs stay undefeated in ACC play!….Duke went for the win in the first OT but missed the 2-point conversion…..SMU led 21-7 at one point…..469-393 yard edge for SMU…..NOTE!….Duke was +6 (!!!) in turnover margin and still lost….SMU QB Kevin Jennings fumbled 4 times (lost 2).
Virginia Tech 21 Georgia Tech 6 – Misleading final – Georgia Tech with a 356-237 yard edge but only scored 6 points….They were (-2) in t/o margin and played with 2nd and 3rd string QBs.
North Carolina 41 Virginia 14 – UNC plays their best game of the year off the bye week and are back in bowl game contention (4-4)….431-299 yard edge for the Tar Heels and they were +2 in t/o margin…..If you have a chance, check out the 84-yard Pick 6 by a giant UNC DL! Sweet moves, yo.
California 44 Oregon St 7 – Golden Bears move to 4-4….482-200 yard edge and 31-CACK at halftime.
Wake Forest 27 Stanford 24 – Demon Deacons have won 3L4G and are also at 4-4 now….They jumped out 14-zip but needed a FG with less than 2 min left to break a 24-24 tie…..422-358 yard edge for Wake Forest who were also +2 in t/o margin.
Big 12
Houston 17 Utah 14 – The Utes’ season continues to go GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes as Houston wins the game on the final play FG….306-291 yard edge for Utah but they were outrushed by Houston 230-90 (!).
Kansas St 29 Kansas 27 – Very entertaining back and forth game….K St took advantage of a late Kansas fumble and kicked the game-winning FG (51 yards) with just under 2 minutes left…..482-401 yard edge for Kansas St, Jayhawks fall to 2-6.
Baylor 38 Oklahoma St 28 – Scrappy effort from the Cowboys but Baylor gets it done…..Nice FRONT DOOR COVER….Laying -6.5 up 31-28 and score TD with 3 min left…..567-433 yard edge for Baylor who are starting to come around nicely on offense.
West Virginia 31 Arizona 26 – Wildcats drop their 4th consecutive game, 405-386 yard edge for West Virginia, backup QB Nicco Marchiol played well, 18/22, 198, 2-0 TD to INT.
TCU 35 Texas Tech 34 – Yuuuuge comeback win for TCU and a crushing blow to Texas Tech’s Big 12 dreams…..TCU led 14-3, Texas Tech stormed back to take a 31-14 lead midway thru the 3Q, TCU scored two TDs in a 3-minute span in the 4Q to take the lead for good….461-438 yard edge for TCU.
BYU 37 UCF 24 – 483-379 yard edge for BYU who moves to 8-0, 255 rushing yards, 228 passing.
Colorado 34 Cincinnati 23 – Another win for the Buffs who are right in the thick of the Big 12 race!….451-351 yard edge for Colorado who’ve got a bye week before their final four games.
Big Ten
USC 42 Rutgers 20 – Trojans started fast and led 28-12 at the half, Rutgers put up a good fight on the stat sheet….USC with 443-434 yard edge, neither team had a turnover, note that USC had a hard time getting off the field on defense….Rutgers was a combined 14-28 on 3rd and 4th down.
Ohio St 21 Nebraska 17 – CORN took a 17-14 lead with about 11 minutes left but Ohio St responded quickly and took the lead back for good…..285-273 yard edge for Ohio St who certainly didn’t look like one of the top teams in the country on this day…..Yuuuge game at Penn St coming up next!
Oregon 38 Illinois 9 – The Ducks keep on rolling….527-293 yard edge, 229 rush and 298 pass yards.
Penn St 28 Wisconsin 13 – It was a close game until the 4Q went Penn St put it away behind backup QB Beau Pribula who came in for the injured Drew Allar…..419-298 yard edge for the Nittany Lions.
Michigan 24 Michigan St 17 – Bit of a misleading final as Sparty had a 352-265 yard edge but they were chasing for most of the game after losing their 7-0 early lead.
Iowa 40 Northwestern 14 – Hawkeyes score four TDs in the 3rd Q to blow the game open….355-163 yard edge for the Hawkeyes who were +2 in t/o margin.
Minnesota 48 Maryland 23 – WOW….The Golden Gophers exploded on offense and had a 34-10 lead at halftime, 443-427 yard edge for Minnesota, QB Max Brosmer had 320 passing yards and 4 TD passes.
Indiana 31 Washington 17 – Indiana opened the scoring with a pick six and the Huskies were chasing all game, 318-312 yard edge for Washington, Indiana moves to 8-0!!
SEC
Texas 27 Vanderbilt 24 – Vanderbilt got the 7-0 jump, Texas scored 21 quick points, Vandy chased the rest of the way in valiant effort, 394-269 yard edge for Texas.
ROLL TIDE 34 Missouri 0 – 486-239 yard edge for the Tide, Missouri starting QB Brady Cook got a bit of action but it was never gonna matter, he left with another injury (hand).
Ole Miss 26 Oklahoma 14 – Sooners actually led at the half 14-10, QB Jackson Arnold got the start, Ole Miss won the 2nd half 16-0, 380-329 yard edge for the Rebels who have WOO PIG and Georgia up next.
Texas A&M 38 LSU 23 – WOW. LSU was up 17-7 halfway thru the 3Q and looking great, Texas A&M brings in backup QB Marcel Reed who proceeded to rush for 3 TDs and the Aggies scored 31 2nd half points…..429-376 yard edge for LSU but they were -2 in t/o margin, QB Garrett Nussmeier threw for over 400 yards but made critical errors (3 INT).
Auburn 24 Kentucky 10 – Yes, guy….Auburn finally gets a win!….Kentucky up 10-CACK early, Auburn RB J Hunter had 278 rushing yards (!), not sure what has happened to the Kentucky defense, 500-224 yard edge for Auburn.
WOO PIG 58 Mississippi St 25 – Nice bounce back effort from WOO PIG, 673-471 yard edge, 359 rushing yards and 314 passing, Mississippi St was (-4) in t/o margin.
AAC
Tulsa 46 UTSA 45 – And now it’s time for our weekly visit to SHAWSHANK prison where the shower stalls are one of the most dangerous places on Earth…..UTSA laying -8.5 or so in this game and their backers must have felt like they took a makeshift prison knife or a “shiv” to a vital organ….LEAN CLUB and people all over the planet feeling great as UTSA leads 35-7 at halftime….What a sharp pick!….Free money….UTSA up 42-17 (!) with 6 minutes left in the 3Q….What could possibly go wrong? Even if Tulsa brings in their backup QB how good could he be when the starter is completely horrible?….Uh, oh…What’s this?….TD Tulsa, TD Tulsa, TD Tulsa….stop us if this is getting repetitive….UTSA up 45-39 with 2 min left so while it looks like the cover is now TOAST, at least those people who used UTSA as a ML parlay piece are still alive because all they need is a win and there’s no way that…..Uh, oh….TD Tulsa….That took a whole minute….Game over Tulsa wins 46-45! Congrats Tulsa backers…..UTSA with a 546-437 yardage edge….Tulsa backup QB Cooper Legas threw for 333 yards and 5 TDs in relief.
Tulane 45 North Texas 37 – Another win for the Green Wave and North Texas continues to SCORE the FOOTBALL….525-472 yard edge for North Texas who were down 45-24 heading into the 4Q.
Memphis 33 Charlotte 28 – Scrappy effort from Charlotte who were down 21-7 at one point, Memphis survives again, 424-303 yard edge for the Tigers.
East Carolina 56 Temple 34 – The ARRRRRRRRR Pirates explode in their first game after firing HC Mike Houston, EC with 29 points in the 3Q, 500-405 yard edge for East Carolina who even their record at 4-4.
UConn 17 Rice 10 – Big win for the Huskies who are now one win away from bowl eligibility and SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB salts away the UConn ‘over’ investment, Rice down 17-3 late but KO return TD gave them a bit of hope, 312-178 yard edge for UConn, very windy affair that cut down the scoring.
Notre Dame 51 Navy 14 – Notre Dame dominated but note that Navy peed the game away early with several turnovers and get this….Navy was (-6) in turnover margin, 466-312 yard edge for the Irish, something seems wrong with the thumb on Navy QB Blake Horvath’s throwing hand so keep that in mind in future weeks.
CUSA
Sam Houston 10 FIU 7 – The Bearkats become bowl eligible with a win!…..Winning FG with 2 min left, 207-199 yard edge for Sam Houston, QB play on both sides was bad, Bearkats with backup, FIU had to bring in 3rd stringer, check QB status for both teams in their next outings.
Louisiana Tech 14 UTEP 10 – The Bulldogs take the lead with 6 min left, 255-251 yard edge for Louisiana Tech.
Kennesaw St 27 Liberty 24 – WHOA, NELLIE!….Kennesaw St gets their first win and they do it over the defending CUSA champs!…Liberty had a 386-323 yard edge but it was a competitive game….The Owls found a passing attack (!) and threw for 189 yards….Tough blow for the Flames and they’ve got Jacksonville St up next.
Jacksonville St 42 MTSU 20 – Another devastating performance on the ground from Jacksonville St…..438 yards rushing….575-364 yard edge overall and they’ve got the yuuuuge battle with Liberty coming up!
MAC
Miami Ohio 46 Central Michigan 7 – WHOA, NELLIE…..Miami Ohio is on the warpath…..518-168 yard edge for the Redhawks.
Bowling Green 41 Toledo 26 – Very nice win for the Falcons who stay alive in the MAC race and Toledo is now toast for all intents and purposes, 422-402 yard edge for Toledo but they were (-2) in t/o margin.
Ball St 25 Northern Illinois 23 – Yes, guy….Ball St with a second MAC victory and it comes vs a team that beat Notre Dame and it came in dramatic fashion, game-winning FG from 52 yards away with just seconds remaining….393-282 yard edge for Ball St and they were +3 in turnover margin.
Ohio 47 Buffalo 16 – Big time beatdown on the Bulls, 489-383 yard edge for Ohio who are definitely in MAC contention, 489-383 yard edge.
Western Michigan 52 Kent St 21 – The Broncos continue to roll and they remain the only undefeated team in the conference, led 38-7 at halftime, 579-250 yard edge and WM was +3 in t/o margin.
Akron 25 Eastern Michigan 21 – Wooo! The wacky Zips get a win…..They blew an 18-CACK advantage (!) and had to score a TD with 4 min left to retake the lead and win, 460-378 yard edge for Eastern Michigan but they allowed Akron to rumble for 220 yards on the ground.
Mountain West
Boise St 29 UNLV 24 – Yuuuge game in the Mountain West and Boise St comes out on top…..Star RB Ashton Jeanty gave the Broncos the lead for good with a TD with 12 min left…..2nd Q won the game for Boise St as they outscored the Rebels 17-zip….398-368 yard edge for Boise St in an evenly played game overall, UNLV set a record for home game attendance (42,228) which was great to see.
Fresno St 33 San Jose St 10 – Early TD for San Jose St and that was all for them…..Misleading final as Fresno had a mere 402-385 yard edge but the Spartans were (-3) in t/o margin, Fresno St was 12/19 on 3rd down.
Utah St 27 Wyoming 25 – Utah St bags the win with a 40-yard FG as time expired, 471-378 yard edge for Wyoming but they were (-2) in t/o margin.
Colorado St 17 New Mexico 6 – Excellent game from the Colorado St defense who held the explosive Lobos offense to a pair of FGs….The Rams are one of three undefeated teams in MW play…Yet another misleading final on the day as New Mexico had a 453-334 yardage advantage but were (-4) in t/o margin.
Washington St 29 San Diego St 26 – The Aztecs continue to play inspired football and Washington St needed a PAIR of 4Q TDs to come back from a 26-14 deficit, 414-375 yard edge for San Diego St, each team with one turnover.
Hawaii 34 Nevada 13 – Hawaii up 17-CACK at half, 399-386 yard edge for Hawaii, Nevada played with 2nd and 3rd string QBs.
Sun Belt
Old Dominion 47 Georgia Southern 19 – BOOM….The Monarchs start hot and jump out to a 20-CACK lead and that was that….560-416 yard edge for Old Dominion….Very impressive offensive showing, 256 rushing yards and 304 passing, both teams now tied atop the Sun Belt East division standings along with Marshall….Gonna be a fun November!
Appalachian St 33 Georgia St 26 – App St down by 1 and score winning TD with 2 min left, get the 2-point conversion to win by 7, Mountaineers with 479-386 yard edge and held Georgia St to a combined 1/9 on 3rd and 4th down.
James Madison 32 Southern Miss 15 – Improved effort from Southern Miss off the change in head coach, 357-319 yard edge for JMU.
Arkansas St 34 Troy 31 – Another heart attack special for the Red Wolves who blew a 23-3 lead and needed a TD in the final seconds to win by 3, 534-466 yard edge for Arkansas St who’s still in the Sun Belt hunt.
South Alabama 46 ULM 17 – ULM led 17-12 at the half, South Alabama won the 2nd half 34-CACK, 526-387 yard edge for the Jaguars.
Betting review
“Official” plays / Larger plays
Appalachian St -7 (Push) – Needed a late TD and 2-point conversion to earn the push but they were the better team on the day. 7 points better? Probably, but Georgia St played pretty well too.
UCF -2.5 (Loss) – It didn’t help that UCF lost their star WR on their first play but they were seriously outcoached in the first half and deserved to lose the game by double-digits. And they did.
“Leans” / Regular plays
1-7 (0-2 Thursday, 1-5 Saturday). Rare stinky week for LEAN CLUB. Thanks to Notre Dame for the win! Hope to get back on the horse this week.
ML Underdog Parlay Club
2/5. Won the first two but couldn’t get another one home.
See the ML Underdog blog page for more details.
Season Win Total Club
Vanderbilt over 2.5 – WINNER! They’ve got five wins already, yo.
Indiana over 5.5 – WINNER! 8-0 to start the season.
Troy under 6.5 – WINNER! They’ve already lost seven games.
Navy over 5.5 – WINNER! Six wins so far.
Connecticut over 4.5 – WINNER! Five wins already.
Michigan St over 4.5 – Sparty sits at 4-4 and needs one more victory to get the cash.
Arkansas St over 6 – Red Wolves are 5-3 and look rock solid to get us at least a push.
Louisiana Tech under 5 – Bulldogs are 3-4 to open the year with a tough schedule remaining. Worst case should be a ‘push’ at 5-7 but you never know.
Temple under 2.5 – Owls have two wins but the road ahead is tough.
FIU over 4 – Sitting at 2-6 after eight games. Another painful loss this week to a good team. They still look live to get a ‘push’ but their QBs continue to drop like flies. Close to a ‘must win’ game at home vs New Mexico St on Tuesday.
Hawaii over 5 – 3-5 to start the year. Five wins and a ‘push’ isn’t out of the question but it’s not gonna be easy.
Arizona St under 4.5 – LOSER. Congrats, Sun Devils!
Futures and Props Club
Oregon to win the Big Ten at +250 has some legs.
Miami to win the ACC at +450 looks like a decent grab. And don’t sleep on Virginia Tech at +1000 and SMU at +2000.
Iowa St +1000 to win the Big 12 should be fun to track.
Texas A&M at +2000 (undefeated in SEC play; top of the conference) has a good shot to make the title game. That would give us a shot to lock in some profit. #HedgeLife
Western Michigan at +650 is alive as they’re the only undefeated team in MAC play. Miami Ohio (+240) is hitting their stride.
Oregon to win it all at +750, Georgia at +325, and Miami at +6600 all have proof of life.
Enjoy the games this week, PLAY SAFE, and we’ll talk to you on these pages after week 10!