Week 9 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
NOTE – only one full write-up this week (Georgia/Florida)….We’ll do FOUR next week.
Handy index: Quick Takes
“Official” picks in blue. Small plays/Leans in green.
- New Mexico St at Louisiana Tech (Tuesday)
- Liberty at Western Kentucky (Tuesday)
- Jacksonville St at FIU (Wednesday)
- UTEP at Sam Houston (Wednesday)
- Vanderbilt at Ole Miss
- Indiana at Penn St
- Washington at Stanford
- USC at California
- South Carolina at Texas A&M
- Michigan St at Minnesota
- Tulsa at SMU
- East Carolina at UTSA
- Ohio St at Wisconsin
- Maryland at Northwestern
- Oregon at Utah
- Florida St at Wake Forest
- Tennessee at Kentucky
- Marshall at Coastal Carolina
- Virginia at Miami
- Duke at Louisville
- Georgia St at Georgia Southern (Thursday)
- Syracuse at Virginia Tech (Thursday)
- BYU at Texas
- Oklahoma at Kansas
- Houston at Kansas St
- Massachusetts at Army
- Air Force at Colorado St
- Miami Ohio at Ohio
- Old Dominion at James Madison
- Arkansas St at ULM
- Oregon St at Arizona
- Iowa St at Baylor
- Southern Miss at Appalachian St
- Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
- New Mexico at Nevada
- San Jose St at Hawaii
- Mississippi St at Auburn
- Purdue at Nebraska
- Clemson at NC State
- North Carolina at Georgia Tech
- West Virginia at UCF
- Troy at Texas St
- Tulane at Rice
- UNLV at Fresno St
- FAU at Charlotte (Friday)
- Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan
- Wyoming at Boise St
- Cincinnati at Oklahoma St
- Washington St at Arizona St
- Colorado at UCLA
- Memphis at North Texas
- UConn at Boston College
- Louisiana at South Alabama
QUICK TAKES
1. Louisiana Tech -3 New Mexico St (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 27.5 New Mexico St 24.5
The Aggies are currently in a 3-way tie for 2nd spot in CUSA but technically it’s a TWO-way tie since Jacksonville St isn’t eligible to play in the title game this season….So there’s lots for the Aggies to play for and they’ve got the best player on the field in QB D Pavia (4 total TD last week)….The D is also rounding into form (17/20/17/13/7 L5G)….Louisiana Tech is off a bye and whilst they’ve completely owned the series vs New Mexico St note that they haven’t hooked up since 2012 so we’ll take things with a grain of salt…..LT has been much better at home under HC Sonny Cumbie…..The Aggies are more balanced on offense…..The Bulldogs rank #2 in CUSA in pass efficiency D despite having played some good THROW GAMES….Prefer the road team but we’d want more than +3 to take a stab.
No leanage
2. Liberty -4 Western Kentucky (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -3
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 32.25 Western Kentucky 28.25
Yes, guy….This is a potential preview of the CUSA Championship Game with the JUGGERNAUT Flames sitting at 7-0 (5-0 conf) and playing solid football….They had a scare vs MTSU last week but still rank #1 in the conference in YPP offense and #2 in YPP defense….They booked over 400 (!) rushing yards last week and they lead the nation in INTs (15)…..Western Kentucky has the worst run D in the conference and that’s baaaad when playing Liberty….The good news is that MTSU threw all over Liberty last week and that’s what the TOPPERS do best….Unfortunately the WKU passing attack hasn’t been nearly as explosive as LY’s version and QB A Reed is averaging just 6.5 YPA (7.9 LY) despite the great play of WR Malachi Corley…..Liberty is the better team but WKU will be in desperation mode and we were hoping to lay -3 or less…..Maybe we get a -3 at some point?….Highly unlikely but we’ll keep tabs on the market.
No leanage
3. Jacksonville St -8 FIU (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville 26 FIU 18
The COCKS have won 4L5 games and are coming off a yuuuuge last second victory over Western Kentucky…..They put up 484 yards vs the Toppers including 262 on ground and boast the #2 ground game in CUSA…..The D has been stingy (#1 CUSA YPP D) and they’re definitely gonna give the FIU offense some problems….The Panthers don’t do much better than average in terms of CUSA teams but they’re well-coached and believe us when we tell you they’ve someone got 4 wins!…..FIU just took down Sam Houston in OT but they’ve been outgained in each of their last four games….Was hoping to see a number at -6.5/-7 to lay it with Jacksonville St but here we are.
No leanage
4. Sam Houston -3 UTEP (36)…………MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -3
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 19.5 UTEP 16.5
We’ll try another Sam Houston OVER this week which never seems like a good idea when you say it out loud but their defense hasn’t been good since early September and they’ve allowed 38, 35 (OT), 21, 27, 33 (OT) L5G….They’ve got no running game so they’ve been throwing it a lot over the last few games (38,41,48,47 attempt by QB K Shoemaker; 285,255,285,306 yards) and UTEP is last in CUSA in YPP D……UTEP has a pair of good running backs and a pair of good WRs…..36 doesn’t seem like a lot of points…..Prefer the home team vs the spread but like the total a wee bit more.
Lean – over 36
5. Ole Miss -25.5 Vanderbilt (63.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -24
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 44.5 Vanderbilt 19
No reason to think about taking the underdog even tho they managed to cover a massive number vs Georgia…..They’re the weakest team by far in the SEC…..Ole Miss disposed of Auburn last week (W 28-21) and it’s hard to see them getting up for this game (and playing anyone nursing concerning injuries) when they’ve got Texas A&M and Georgia waiting on deck.
No leanage
6. Penn St -32 Indiana (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -31
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 38.25 Indiana 6.25
Penn St will be able to name the score as they usually do vs turds but it’s tough to know how they’ll bounce back after the loss to Ohio St…..Nittany Lions have Maryland and Michigan up next……The Hoosiers are DUMPSTER JUICE but that’s a lot of points, yo.
No leanage
7. Washington -27 Stanford (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -24
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 43 Stanford 16
YIKES…..The Huskies played their worst game of the season last week at home vs a scrappy Arizona St team and were fortunate to get the heck out of there with a win….They didn’t score an offensive TD and were outgained as 27-point favorites….The letdown was expected after their yuuuge win over Oregon but they sure didn’t look good….Penix took some shots vs Oregon….Is he 100%?….The good news for Washington is that they’re playing the worst team in the PAC 12 who just lost 42-7 to the Bruins at home….The Cardinal have had two good games out of nowhere (lost to Arizona by 1, beat the Buffs) so we’ll take a pass….Huskies have a trip to USC up next.
No leanage
8. USC -11 California (67)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – USC 39 California 28
As horrible as the Trojans have looked during the past two games….losses to Notre Dame and Utah…..This is a massive drop in class taking on the Fascists from Berkeley…..The problem with backing the Trojans stems from their awful defense and the fact that their star QB doesn’t seem to have his head in the game right now……Cal has been decent as a home dog ATS under Wilcox but they lost in that pointspread role vs Oregon St a few games ago and their QB situation is gross.
No leanage
9. Texas A&M -14 South Carolina (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 34.25 South Carolina 20.25
The COCKS are a HOT MESS right now on both sides of the football (#10 SEC YPP off, #13 YPP defense) and their offensive line and WR corps are riddled with injuries…..They’re last in the SEC in TFL/allowed and that’s BAD news when you’re facing the Aggies who lead in SEC in sacks and TFL/game…..South Cackalacky has been outgained by every FBS opponent (6) and Texas A&M takes a yuuuge drop in class after playing Tennessee and ROLL TIDE before their bye week…..The intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that Texas A&M has outgained the COCKS by an average of 466-243 over the L6G….South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler has a 1-4 TD to INT ratio in three true road games.
Lean – Texas A&M -14
10. Minnesota -7 Michigan St (40)…………MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 23.5 Michigan St 16.5
Michigan St was playing a decent brand of football before the DEBACLE last game vs Michigan getting drilled 49-CACK….The Gophers are in the Spartans area code but has Michigan St finally quit on the season?…..We hope not because this is a winnable game….This is the worst Gophers team since PJ Fleck’s first year back in 2017.
No leanage
11. SMU -20.5 Tulsa (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -18
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 39 Tulsa 18.5
The Mustangs come into this BAD BOY off a MASSACRE of Temple on Friday night (55-0) and they’re one of three undefeated teams left in the AAC (Tulane, UTSA)…..Tulsa was playing some scrappy football before getting destroyed by Rice at home in their last outing (L 42-10) and that’s got us concerned……So despite getting what we believe is a few too many points we’ll have to take a seat.
No leanage
12. UTSA -19 East Carolina (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 33.5 East Carolina 14.5
The Roadrunners played their best game of the year last week in a blowout win over Florida Atlantic and we certainly didn’t see that coming…..Could they be rounding into form just in time for the home stretch???…..East Carolina’s offense is brutal but they still play stingy defense…..This is a “favorite or pass” situation and our GO NUMBER was -16.5 and here we are.
No leanage
13. Ohio St -14.5 Wisconsin (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 29 Wisconsin 14.5
The Buckeyes are playing some great defense (#4 FBS total defense) and have allowed 3/7/10/14/17/7/12 over the course of their seven games…..WR Marvin Harrison Jr has been amazing but the rushing attack leaves a lot to be desired and QB K McCord is still growing into the role of starting QB…..Wisconsin’s D has looked better since their bye week and have allowed just 278 YPG over the L3G but this is a bit step up in competition….They’re running the ball well with star RB B Allen (704, 5.9, 8 TD) and backup QB Braedyn Locke just might be an upgrade over injured starter T Mordecai…..Ohio St has covered 7L9 in the series but with points at a premium we’ll take the dirty dog in some SWEET SATURDAY NIGHT ACTION.
Lean – Wisconsin +14.5
14. Maryland -13.5 Northwestern (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -12
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 31 Northwestern 17.5
It’s seems impossible – but yes – Northwestern has managed to win three games already this season and they just played a scrappy game on the road vs CORN (L 17-9)……FEAR THE TURTLE was undefeated before dropping a game to Illinois and they come into this one off a bye with Penn St up next…..They’ve got the firepower to cover the number but laying doubles with Maryland on the road isn’t one of our favorite spots……Note that Terps HC M Locksley is 8-16 SU in true road affairs.
No leanage
15. Oregon -7 Utah (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -6
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 28 Utah 21
The Utes just took down mighty USC and they’ll officially be without starting QB Cam Rising for the rest of the season….Maybe that gives these guys a chip on their shoulder (not like they need one) and helps in terms of lessening the distractions….The D is playing lights out (#5 FBS run D), they’re running the ball well, and they lead the nation in time of possession….They’ve also won 18 straight games at home…..Oregon’s only loss was a tough one at Washington and they’ve been great on both sides of the football….They’re balanced on offense (#6 rush, #8 pass) and the Ducks are good enough to do damage vs any defense in the country….The Ducks’ run D has also been stout (#11 FBS)….Utah QB Bryson Barnes just had the best game of his career leading the Utes to a comeback win over USC (235, 3-1 TD to INT)……Prefer the home dog but may come back to this BAD BOY later in the week…..We still rate Oregon as the best team in the PAC 12 so it’s a tough call.
No leanage
16. Florida St -20 Wake Forest (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 36.5 Wake Forest 16.5
The Noles were down after 3Q vs Duke but dominated the 4th Q en route to a 38-20 win…..They can probably name the score in this game but they’ve been inconsistent at times and that makes it hard to cover almost 3 TD on the road….Wake Forest is a bad team but they’ve still found a way to win four games and they’re well coached…..Pretty easy game to pass.
No leanage
17. Tennessee -3.5 Kentucky (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 27.5 Kentucky 24
Our first instinct was to consider the home dog in this spot but it’s tough to trust the Cats even off a bye….They’re last two games were awful performances although it should be noted that their opponents were tough (Georgia, Missouri)…..QB Devin Leary has been a major disappointment and he’s had major accuracy issues that have been made worse by the WRs have a bad case of the DROPSIES all year…..They still play solid defense tho particularly vs the run and that’s what Tennessee loves to do (#7 FBS rushing offense)……Note that the Vols are an impossible 18-2 SU L20 at Kentucky (15-5 ATS)……Both teams take tons of penalties so don’t adjust your screen if it appears to have consistent blotches of yellow.
No leanage
18. Marshall -4 Coastal Carolina (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -3
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 24.5 Coastal Carolina 20.5
Very tough game to wager upon as the CHANTS will almost certainly be without star QB G McCall for this game and the backup QB situation is a complete mystery and we’re not even sure the coaches know what to expect…..Marshall’s run D has been disgusting this season (#113 FBS; #3 LY!) so there’s a path for Coastal Carolina in this one.
No leanage
19. Miami -19 Virginia (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -17
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 33.25 Virginia 14.25
YOUR Miami Hurricanes are fresh off a massive 2-OT win over Clemson and recall that they played with their backup QB in that affair….The D has been excellent particularly vs the run (#8 FBS) and it’s hard to see a one-dimensional Virginia offense move the ball consistently…..Virginia SHOCKED the WORLD last week and took down the undefeated Tar Heels so this is also a theoretical letdown spot for the Cavs…..Miami starting QB T Van Dyke should get the start but nowadays you never know when a healthy QB will sit and when a QB with 89 broken bones ruled “out” by the head coach will magically get healed on Saturday morning and throw for 560 yards and 7 TDs.
No leanage
20. Louisville -4 Duke (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 25.5 Duke 21.5
LUA-VUH comes in off a bye and the last time we saw them they were getting upset by Pitt on the road…..They’ve now got one ACC loss but are still very much in the mix for a trip to the conference title game….They’ve outgained each of their last six opponents (including Notre Dame) and have been excellent vs the run (#15 FBS) which is Duke’s bread and butter….Duke has been outgained in each of their last three games and QB Riley Leonard is Q with an ankle issue….Duke has only 6 TD passes all year and have no THROW GAME to speak of….They do however play solid defense although they can have a bit of trouble vs the run (#61 FBS run D)…..Cards #1 RB J Jordan is listed as Q……We prefer the home team but maybe we get some “Leonard is practicing and gonna start” news which drives the line down to -3 or similar…..Waiting for now…..LUA-VUH or pass.
No leanage
21. Georgia Southern -2 Georgia St (64)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 33 Georgia St 31
Massive game in the KOOKY Sun Belt East as the Eagles and Panthers go head-to-head in what should be a very entertaining game…..Both teams can SCORE the football……Georgia St likes to do it on the ground….Georgia Southern slings it around….We prefer the home team that we believe can do enough to slow down the Panthers’ ground attack but don’t see enough line value to pounce……Note that Georgia St has won three straight in the series.
No leanage
22. Virginia Tech -2.5 Syracuse (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -4
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 24.75 Syracuse 22.25
The Orange are watching the season go GLUG GLUG GLUG right before their own eyes as they’re 0-3 in ACC play (outscored 112-24)…..The good news is that playing the Hokies is a yuuuuge drop in class after facing Clemson/UNC/Florida St L3G….Virginia Tech is finding their sea legs and have been playing an improved brand of football…They destroyed Pitt and Wake Forest in their last two home games and Syracuse is in that weight class…..Both teams are off a bye….Syracuse hasn’t played a home game since September…..Orange are a one-man show on offense (but it’s a good one) in QB G Schrader and they should have a bit of success on the ground….VT has a solid pass D and are tied for the ACC lead in sacks.
Lean – Virginia Tech -2.5 -115 <note you can find a few -2.5 -110s out there but those are mostly in Vegas; -2.5 -112 to -2.5 -115 is very common offshore>
23. Texas -17.5 BYU (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 34 BYU 16.5
Texas will be rolling with backup QB M Murphy in this BAD BOY and whilst we don’t have faith in BYU the number looks about right…..The Longhorns’ stop unit has shown some holes L2G and they only managed to put up 360 yards vs Houston last week…..They’ve also got a yuuuuge game with Kansas St on deck…..BYU is nothing special but they’ve got a veteran QB and we expect max effort getting a shot at Texas.
No leanage
24. Oklahoma -10 Kansas (66)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -9
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 38 Kansas 28
The Sooners had a close call with UCF (!) last week but remain undefeated and in prime shape to get to the Big 12 title game….We’ve been impressed with the Oklahoma defense so far but they didn’t look good last week….maybe it was just one game??….Kansas will be (almost certainly) playing with backup QB Jason Bean and while the Kansas defense is disgusting they’ve played very well at home so far and have shown the ability to SCORE the FOOTBALL….Prefer the road team but not at double digits, yo.
No leanage
25. Kansas St -17 Houston (59) …………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -17
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 38 Houston 21
The Cats wiped the floor with TCU last week and have the aforementioned epic tilt with Texas up next…..They’ve got a big edge in the trenches but you have to respect the way Houston has played over the L2G…..They gave West Virginia all they could handle and won on a Hail Mary….and then last game they fought back from a big deficit to tie Texas (!) only to fall by a TD….Mind you both of those games were at home……Houston QB Donovan Smith has been WHITE HOT lately and he’s having a solid season overall (16-4 TD to INT, 67%)…..Prefer the home team due to their overwhelming ground attack and home field but taking a seat for now given the market price.
No leanage
26. Army -10 Massachusetts (48) …………MEGALOCKS line – Army -10
Vegas Implied Score – Army 29 Massachusetts 19
The Minutemen are not a good team….BUT…..they’re much better than last year and could easily have another win or two….Their defense has regressed but the offense is good enough to move the ball on Army….The Black Knights haven’t been very good this season and they’re off BACK-to-BACK shutouts (combined 81-CACK to Troy and LSU)…..They’re the better team obviously but they’ve got Air Force on deck and the Minutemen are probably the hungrier bunch….Line looks about right.
No leanage
27. Air Force -12 Colorado St (48.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -10
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 30.25 Colorado St 18.25
The Falcons are one of only TWO undefeated teams in Mountain West play (UNLV **) and appear to be on cruise control to the conference title game….As hilarious as it might sound this might be their toughest game of the season (home to Wyoming?) and this is an in-state affair that’s got a lot of hatred brewing…..Colorado St has a pair of devastating losses and one miracle win…..They can move the ball thru the air and the Falcons have faced a poor set of QBs overall….The Rams can’t stop the pass but that’s not bad when playing Air Force…..Colorado St has covered four in a row as underdogs this season after getting POLEAXED in the opener vs Washington St.
** fact check – true
Lean – Colorado St +12
28. Ohio -7 Miami Ohio (39) …………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 23 Miami Ohio 16
The Redhawks will be without starting QB Brett Gabbert who suffered a gruesome leg injury last week and it’ll be up to backup Aveon Smith to lead the way…..He got a lot of playing time LY (11-5 TD to INT, 50%; team leading 553 rush yards) but they’re definitely behind the 8-ball trying to beat Ohio ON THE HIGHWAY with him at the controls….We had Miami rated slightly ahead of Ohio before the injury and their defense is good enough to keep them in this game heading into the 4th Q……That is unless Smith really struggles and it’s anyone’s guess if that will happen or not…..MASSIVE MAC East implications in this game.
No leanage
29. James Madison -20 Old Dominion (49) …………MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -17
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 34.5 Old Dominion 14.5
It’s a few too many points to be laying against a team that just upset Appalachian St but note the James Madison has been CRUSHING and KILLING all year….They’re sitting at 7-0 with a BRICK WALL run defense that allows a mere 36 YPG….That’s a bad match-up for the Monarchs who have a weak offense and what offense they do have involves running the football…..The Dukes are ineligible to win the conference but seem plenty motivated to put up a ZERO in the loss column.
No leanage
30. ULM -2.5 Arkansas St (56.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – ULM -1
Vegas Implied Score – ULM 29.5 Arkansas St 27
It’s a battle of two lower-tier FUN BELT teams that’ve both played better than expectations despite their combined win-loss record of 5-9…..The Warhawks have lost five in a row but lost a PAIR of conference games by a single point (App St, Texas St) and were right in the game with Georgia Southern until the final minutes…..Arkansas St hasn’t beaten anyone with a pulse BUT they do have three wins and another one on Saturday puts them at 4-4……ULM is the better overall team but the best player on the field is Arkansas St QB Jaylan Raynor (12-3 TD to INT; 246 rush, 2 TD) who took over the starting gig in late September…..Coin toss, yo.
No leanage
31. Oregon St -3.5 Arizona (56.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 30 Arizona 26.5
Don’t look now but the Beavers are right in the thick of things in terms of finding their way into the PAC 12 Championship Game….They’re one of four teams with just one conference loss…They’re a solid team on both sides of the football but they’re a much better team at home than ON THE HIGHWAY under HC Jonathan Smith (21-12 home, 10-19 away)….Arizona has the #14 rushing D in the nation (96 YPG) so Oregon St will have to work for it with their patented rushing attack…..The Wildcats have played very impressive football lately….They lost to mighty Washington by 7, took USC to OT, and obliterated Washington St (W 44-6) last time out…..Our only concern with backing the Cats is that they’re +78 (!!) vs the pointspread L3G and the line may have adjusted a wee bit too much….We might even see a flat -3 by gameday.
No leanage
32. Iowa St -2.5 Baylor (47.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 25 Iowa St 22.5
We prefer the home team in this spot especially with QB Blake Shapen back and healthy…..He hasn’t thrown an INT in 145 attempts this season and they’re coming off a road win over Cincinnati…..Iowa St’s offense is the 2nd worst in the Big 12 in terms of total offense but the defense is very stingy (#1 Big 12 YPP D)….Baylor has covered 5 straight in the series…..Of course the big issue with the Bears is their disgusting defense that ranks last in the Big 12 in run D and 2nd last in pass efficiency D.
No leanage
33. Appalachian St -17 Southern Miss (55) …………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -16
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 36 Southern Miss 19
Tough to support either side in this FUN BELT clash….The Golden Eagles’ season is over (1-6) and they’re just a bad team….but they’ve shown the ability to score a few points vs teams with TRASH defenses (Ark St 37, Texas St 36) and the Mountaineers stop unit has been very sketchy this season (#9 Sun Belt YPP D)…..Southern Miss has given up 66/44/50/55 on four different occasions so we’ve gotta prefer the favorite…..but what if App St has quit on the season and/or the HC?….They’re used to being the top dog (or one of them) in the conference and they’re currently tied at the bottom of the East division after losing back-to-back conference games.
No leanage
34. Notre Dame -20.5 Pittsburgh (44.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -18
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 32.5 Pittsburgh 12
The Irish got a well-deserved bye week after playing four straight tough opponents (Ohio St, Duke, LUA-VUH, USC) and now get to face one of the worst Pitt teams in quite some time…..The problem with backing the home favorite is that -20.5 is no bargain and the tempo in this game is gonna be really slow….The Irish also have a trip to Clemson on deck.
No leanage
35. Nevada -1 New Mexico (49.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -1
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 25.25 New Mexico 24.25
We certainly trust the Lobos offense more than we trust what the Wolfpack brings to the table and Nevada has been outgained by 155 YPG…..The flipside is that Nevada has played much better in their two games since their bye week….They gave UNLV a good game (L 45-27, -3 in t/o; UNLV 518-474 total yards) and then shutout the Aztecs 6-CACK last week on the road…..Nevada has also played the much tougher schedule overall……Bit of a puzzler.
No leanage
36. San Jose St -10.5 Hawaii (60.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -12
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 35.5 Hawaii 25
The Spartans are playing some of the best football of any team in the Mountain West right now….Since the bye week they lost to Boise St by 8 (blew 20 point lead) and then destroyed New Mexico and Utah St whilst rushing for over 250Y on each occasion….They’ve played the much tougher schedule than Hawaii overall and note that in MW play (Hawaii has played three weak opponents) they are last in run defense (230 YPG) and in pass efficiency defense (69%, 6-1 TD to INT, 8 YPA)…..The Spartans also have one of the best QBs in the conference and they allowed just 264 yards to a potent Utah St offense last week.
Lean – San Jose St -10.5
37. Auburn -6.5 Mississippi St (43.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -5
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 25 Mississippi St 19.5
YIKES….This doesn’t promise to be a THRILLER but there’s a good chance it’ll be a close game…..Mississippi St’s defense was HOT DOO DOO before their bye week but they won a 7-3 SNOT BUBBLER vs the Razorbacks and maybe they’ve found something??…..We’re not sure who’s starting at QB for Miss St and whilst we prefer Will Rogers (not likely to start) there’s no doubt that the mobility of Mike Wright presents a tougher set of overall challenges for Auburn…..Speaking of which they’re a tough team to back with a one-dimensional rushing offense but the defense is solid…..Prefer the road dog and the under but kinda lukewarm on both as we approach press time…..may come back to this one.
No leanage
38. Nebraska -2.5 Purdue (39.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -3
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 21 Purdue 18.5
Let’s do this!!! CORN hasn’t made a bowl game since the 2016 (!) Music City Bowl and they only need two more wins for bowl eligibility…..We love the way the defense is playing but it’s hard to ignore how one-dimensional they are on offense (#1 Big Ten rushing, #12 passing) behind HEISENBERG ** at QB….Purdue is in danger of missing out on bowl season and this is as close to a “must-win” as you can get (2-5)….Their last two games came vs Iowa and Ohio St…..Dog has covered the last four in the series.
** say his name <Breaking Bad joke….sorry>
No leanage
39. Clemson -10 NC State (44) ………………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 27 NC State 17
YOUR Miami Hurricanes took down mighty Clemson last week and that means the Tigers have three ACC losses….They’re the better team in this matchup but what kind of motivation will they have the rest of the way…..especially with a home date vs Notre Dame up next?…..Their THROW GAME is limited and they’ve only scored a total of 37 points in their last two games….NC State comes off a bye and certainly has this game circled…..Their offense is pretty disgusting but the defense is good enough to keep this within double digits.
Lean – NC State +10
40. North Carolina -11.5 Georgia Tech (63.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -13
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 37.5 Georgia 26
The Tar Heels SHAT the BED last week vs Virginia (?) and while we sincerely hope they have a bounce-back effort it’s hard to ignore how sloppy they were the previous week vs Miami and now they go on the road to face a team (crappy as they may be) that has beaten them the last two years as yuuuuge underdogs.
No leanage
41. UCF -7 West Virginia (58) …………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 32.5 West Virginia 25.5
Tempted to roll with the home team that gave Oklahoma all they could handle PLUS A BAG OF CHIPS last week (L 31-29) and recall that they blew a big lead vs Baylor in their last Big 12 home game…..The #5 FBS rushing attack is potent and it’s nice to have JRP back at QB but the defense is very soft vs the run (#121 FBS) which plays right into the hands of the Mountaineers who like to abuse you on the ground….The odds are excellent that the Knights get their first Big 12 win but it won’t be easy beating WV by more than 7 points.
No leanage
42. Troy -5.5 Texas St (53.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Troy -7
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 29.5 Texas St 24
It’s a tasty battle of two teams tied atop the FUN BELT West division and it’s quite the contrast in styles…..Texas St moves like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense (#1 Sun Belt total offense) but they’re very susceptible to dry spells and they love to fumble the football (#125 FBS fumbles lost, 8)…..They also don’t play much defense…….Troy has a balanced offense with a devastating RB in Kimani Vidal (951, 6.2, 6 TD) and they’ve outscored their L3 opponents 84-10 thanks to a suffocating defense.
Lean – Troy -5.5
43. Tulane -10.5 Rice (53.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -9
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 32 Rice 21.5
HOOT HOOT is coming off a blowout win over Tulsa (W 42-10) and don’t look now but they’ve booked four wins and are on a COURSE WITH DESTINY to get to bowl season…..They’ve got the THROW GAME to give Tulane problems (#116 passing yards allowed, #63 pass efficiency D) but the Green Wave just keeps getting it done and they’ve covered nine straight road games. a
No leanage
44. Fresno St -7.5 UNLV (57.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 32.5 UNLV 25
Yes, guy…..The Rebels are having their best season in recent memory and sit tied atop the Mountain West standings with an undefeated record (Air Force)…..The offense is balanced (#2 MW rushing, #8 passing) but the defense is still weak, particularly vs the pass which isn’t a great thing when facing a Fresno St team that just might get their starting QB Mikey Keene back this week…..Line looks about right…..Fresno has played the tougher schedule (#108 vs #132) and are 13-2 SU at home since the start of the 2021 campaign.
No leanage
45. Florida Atlantic -4 Charlotte (43) …………MEGALOCKS line – Florida Atlantic -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida Atlantic 23.5 Charlotte 19.5
As much as we’d like to take the Owls in this spot their offense has really struggled against Power 5 teams with good defenses….They scored 10 vs Ohio (TD on defense), 20 vs Tulsa, and 10 vs UTSA (TD on defense)….Charlotte’s offense is disgusting but they’re a hungry team coming off a win.
No leanage
46. Western Michigan -3 Eastern Michigan (46.5) …………MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -4
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 24.75 Eastern Michigan 21.75
We’ll roll with the Broncos once again as whilst their defense is mediocre (405 YPG, last MAC) they won’t have anything to worry about this week as Eastern Michigan might legitimately have the worst offense in college football….They’re #132 in the country in total offense (Iowa) and #130 in YPP offense despite playing the #143 schedule….The Broncos can move the ball with QB H Wolff and RB J Buckley.
Lean – Western Michigan -3
47. Boise St -5 Wyoming (49) …………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 27 Wyoming 22
This is essentially an ELIMINATION game as both teams are a game behind Air Force and UNLV in the Mountain West race…..We prefer the home team as they’ve never (!) lost to Wyoming at home but they’re getting very sketchy QB play no matter who’s in the game….RB A Jeanty is an absolute monster (868, 5.7, 11 TD) but can he carry the team essentially by himself vs a tough Wyoming team who can run the ball and is getting better at throwing the darn thing in recent weeks….Coaching edge goes to the Pokes.
No leanage
48. Oklahoma St -7 Cincinnati (53) …………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 30 Cincinnati 23
Definitely prefer the home team in this spot as the FIGHTING MIKE GUNDYS have won three straight games and ALL of them came as the underdog (+48 ATS)….The defense is a bit sketchy tho (33/34/21/32/34 L5G) and they battle a Cincinnati squad that can definitely move the ball a little bit on the ground (215 YPG, #3 Big 12) and they’re desperate for that first Big 12 win…..Pokes have the yuuuge game with Oklahoma up next.
No leanage
49. Washington St -6 Arizona St (51) …………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 28.5 Arizona St 22.5
The Sun Devils have played four strong games in a row (USC, at Cal, Colorado, at Washington) and they came THIS close to beating mighty Washington last week…..They held one of the best offenses in the country to just 288Y (!) and the Huskies didn’t score an offensive TD….Given that level of success vs a high octane THROW GAME that should mean good things playing a Wash St team that’s lost three straight games that can only pass and plays zero defense.
Lean – Arizona St +6
UPDATE – Official pick Arizona St +5.5 -108 <sent 5:17pm Oct 27>
Note from the email sent to members…..
This was originally posted as a small play/lean at +6. We’ll use +5.5 for “official pick” grading purposes as that is the current number and this is one of our favorite picks of the week. We like it down to +4.5. We’re still playing all of our picks (“official” and small plays/leans) for the same amount but feel free to sprinkle a bit more (at +5.5) if you agree with the analysis. It’s up to you. PLAY SAFE!
Note from the Week 8 Boxscore and Wagering Review blog post.
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly so far this season. 5-18-1 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 58-34 (63%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
50. UCLA -17 Colorado (63) …………MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -15
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 40 Colorado 23
The Bruins showed some life last week on offense behind QB Ethan Garbers as they might have been getting a bit tired of the talented (yet turnover-prone) Dante Moore….Mind you that was against Stanford…..Colorado is in the same area code as the Cardinal but they’ve got a star QB with lots of THROW GAME weaponry….That’ll be a challenge for the UCLA secondary and there’s BACK DOOR potential with Colorado if they can hang around which they’ve done in every game but one (at Oregon)…..The Buffs D is DUMPSTER JUICE tho and that makes them very tough to back.
No leanage
51. Memphis -7.5 North Texas (69) …………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 38.25 North Texas 30.75
The Mean Green are one of the more underrated G5 teams out there and that’s thanks in large part to the excellent play of QB Chandler Rogers whose only thrown 1 INT in 220 attempts (14 TD) and rushed for 3 TDs on the ground…..They’ve got a deep and bruising ground attack which will have success against the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Memphis stop unit (#10 AAC, 157 YPG)….The North Texas D is disgusting but they were good enough to hold Tulane to 35 last week on the road and note that the game was tied late in the 4Q….Memphis is 19-5 SU at home under HC Ryan Silverfield and just 5-11 in true road contests.
Lean – North Texas +7.5
UPDATE – Official pick North Texas +7 -108 <sent 4:24 pm Oct 27>
Note from the email sent to members…….
This was originally posted as a small play/lean at +7.5. We’ll use +7 for “official pick” grading purposes as that is the current number and this is one of our favorite picks of the week. We’re still playing all of our picks (“official” and small plays/leans) for the same amount but feel free to sprinkle a bit more (at +7) if you agree with the analysis. It’s up to you. PLAY SAFE!
Note from the Week 8 Boxscore and Wagering Review blog post.
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly so far this season. 5-18-1 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 58-34 (63%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
52. Boston College -14 UConn (51) …………MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 32.5 UConn 18.5
The Huskies’ season is officially over as they sit at 1-6 and still have road games at Tennessee and James Madison…..not to mention this game…..We’ve chronicled the several close calls they’ve had this season but here we are…..The reality is that they aren’t good on either side of the football and this just might be their toughest game of the season…..Boston College is starting to REV IT UP on offense particularly on the ground behind their excellent dual-threat QB T Castellanos and note that the Eagles have rushed for over 300Y in back-to-back games….This is also a revenge spot as UConn embarrassed BC LY at home (W 13-3).
Lean – Boston College -14
53. South Alabama -10 Louisiana (55) …………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -11
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 32.5 Louisiana 22.5
The Jags just might be WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE but you have to take the last two games with a bit of a grain of salt…..They destroyed Southern Miss and ULM by a combined tally of 110-10 in their L2G but neither of those teams will be going bowling to say the least….The Cajuns have a lethal running threat at QB in Zeon Chriss (446, 7.8, 5 TD) but the THROW GAME is stalling out and all Louisiana could do last week on offense was essentially ask Chriss to scramble and run for his life….South Alabama has a stronger D than Georgia St and a balanced offense that should be able to shred the Cajuns’ stop unit……This looks like a case of two teams headed in opposite directions.
Lean – South Alabama -10
NOTE – previous typo on Thursday; Originally typed at “+10”. Meant to be “-10”.
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re continuing to play these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.