West Virginia Mountaineers 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – West Virginia Mountaineers 2018 NCAA Football Preview

Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 6-7

The Mountaineers finished up with a record of 7-6 but FAR outperformed that mark on the field in our humble estimation. The teams that beat them? Virginia Tech, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and TCU. And they finished the latter part of the season without their excellent QB Will Grier.

Things look pretty good heading into the 2018 campaign. Are they legitimate contenders in the Big 12?

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 12 – #3

West Virginia Mountaineers 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

This just in. You can’t go wrong with a Heisman Trophy contender at QB. Will Grier was fantastic last season and completed 64.4% of his passes with a 34-12 TD to INT ratio before suffering a gruesome injury vs Texas late in the season. Grier is back and has an excellent WR group at his disposal. Gary Jennings led the team in receptions (97) (!) and yards (1,096) in 2017 and David Sills garnered 2nd Team AA honors whilst bagging an impossible 18 TD receptions. The primary concern on offense is dealing with the loss of back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher Justin Crawford. The good news is that the OL brings back 4/5 starters and there is some talent remaining in the RB group.

The Mountaineers averaged 34.5 PPG last season (remember, Grier was out for the final 2+ games) and we see them exceeding that mark provided they get decent production from the rushing attack (150 YPG, #5 Big 12 LY).

DEFENSE

The outcome of the Mountaineers’ season will boil down to the play of the defense. West Virginia yielded 27.6, 24.6, and 24.0 PPG before allowing over 30 PPG (31.5) in 2017. West Virginia only returns five starters to the stop unit but bring back their excellent LB David Long who tallied 16.5 TFL, 6 PBU, and a pair of QBH last year. The defense was fairly disappointing last year (#106) and only achieved minimal PENETRATION (25 sacks – #72 FBS sacks per game LY). We are fans of the LB corps but are not sure about the DL and secondary (one returning starter).

SPECIAL TEAMS

The unit will be buoyed by the addition of WKU PK Skyler Simcox (16/22 FG in 2016). The rest of the unit looks acceptable.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s pretty challenging. The Big 12 docket is understandably tough and they draw Tennesee and NC State in non-conference play. Also note that they finish with a 4-PACK OF DEATH (Texas, TCU, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing of note.

Season Win Total

Over 7 -150

Under 7 +130

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. The Mountaineers have won 7+ games in nine of the past ten seasons and now they have a Heisman-caliber QB at the controls.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

West Virginia has the most victories (744) of any school that has never won or claimed a national championship. Amaze your local SUBWAY SANDWICH ARTIST with that gem.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the MOUNTAINEERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.

This team is absolutely capable of winning the Big 12. In our eyes it comes down to the defense and their ability to be an “above average Big 12 unit”. If they don’t start out on SUPAH HOT FIRE the season could implode because the end of the docket is flat out nasty. Then again, if they are as good as advertised, they should be able to navigate that part of the schedule and get to the title game.

Scary news. HC Dana Holgorsen is just 37-52-1 ATS (41.6%) (!) at West Virginia. The Mountaineers consistently fail to deliver on market expectations. So while we love the upside of this squad, we have to recommend picking your spots vs the point spread.

Want more West Virginia football ?

WEBSITE

https://wvusports.com/index.aspx?path=football

FORUM

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NEWS

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/Sports/WVU