College Football Predictions – West Virginia Mountaineers 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 8-4
ATS – 7-4-1
West Virginia ended the Dana Holgorsen era with a strong run at a Big 12 Championship Game appearance. It all came down to the final game of the regular season when they hosted Oklahoma. They put up over 700 (!) yards of offenses but fell to the Sooners by a final score of 59-56. Yup, that happened.
Neal Brown takes over the HC duties and he did a wonderful job at Troy.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #9
West Virginia Mountaineers 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s not going to be easy, and maybe even impossible, to replace the production of star QB Will Grier who is off to the NFL (Panthers). Grier was a MEGALOCKS favorite and threw for almost 4,000 yards and 37 TDs a season ago and he didn’t even play in the bowl game. It’s not all DOOM AND GLOOM as Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall looked good in the spring and could end up doing very well this year. The WR group is in complete reload mode and it will be messy trying to replace David Sills and Gary Jennings who combined for over 1,900 yards and 28 (!) TDs a season ago. The passing game is going to need some time to get in sync. The rushing attack should be a force with the return of their THREE-HEADED MONSTER (McKoy, Pettaway, Brown) that rushed for 1,800 yards and 18 TDs LY. The OL loses star LT Yodny Cajuste but still boasts over 60 career starts as a group.
We expect West Virginia to continue their streak of averaging 30+ PPG (five seasons) but fall short of last year’s amazing output (40.3 PPG).
DEFENSE
West Virginia ranked #5 in the Big 12 in total defense (406 YPG) last year but they struggled mightily against the better teams on their schedule (41,45,59 points allowed vs Texas, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma). New DC Vic Koenning did a good job at Troy and will move the Mountaineers away from their 3-3-5 defense. There are six starters back for duty but it may take some time to get the hang of new responsibilities. It will be even more challenging without last year’s Big 12 Defensive POY LB David Long (NFL – Titans). The DL and LB groups are of particular concern to us but the secondary looks really good. West Virginia graded out in mediocre fashion when it came to pass efficiency defense LY (#7 Big 12) but improved performance is most certainly on the horizon. Two senior starting CBs are back in the fold along with 1st Team Big 12 honoree FS Kenny Robinson.
We look for the Mountaineers to allow between 27.0 and 30.0 PPG this season (27.2 LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
It can’t hurt to have ace PK Evan Staley in your corner who is coming off a season in which he made 16/18 FGs from inside 50 yards. The Mountaineers were fairly dismal on KR and PR last year and could use an injection of explosiveness. Keep an eye on freshman P Kolton McGhee who launches bombs.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s on the more difficult side. Non-conference games with Missouri (away) and NC State will be tough and their road conference slate will be challenging (Oklahoma, TCU, Kansas St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noted as we approach press time.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -105
Under 5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
We’ll almost certainly take a pass on this market. It’s tough to know what to expect with a new HC and so much turnover of personnel.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
West Virginia has the most wins of any FBS team that has never claimed a National Championship.
Neal Brown has some big shoes to fill. Some of the recent successful head coaches at West Virginia include Dana Holgorsen (.598), Bill Stewart (.700), Rich Rodriguez (.698), and the legendary Don Nehlen (.641).
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
It seems reasonable to expect inconsistency and growing pains in year one of the Neal Brown experience. There is talent sprinkled throughout the roster but it seems to us that a reasonable goal would be a six to eight win season and a bowl appearance. That won’t be easy given all the changes that the Mountaineers are dealing with in 2019. We love the Neal Brown hire, it just may take a bit of time to get things rolling.
The Mountaineers have been a disappointment over the past 10 years ATS (46%) but keep in mind that we need to reset the numbers based on the change at HC. We expect a bit of a struggle early on and then noticeable improvement later in the year. It’s a tall order to expect West Virginia to be profitable vs Vegas on the season. Caution sign for now.
Want more West Virginia football ?
WEBSITE
https://wvusports.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/west-virginia/Board/Football-103745/
https://westvirginia.forums.rivals.com/forums/game-day-discussion.22/
NEWS
http://www.wvgazettemail.com/Sports/WVU
http://www.wvillustrated.com/wvu-football
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/277/west-virginia-mountaineers
http://bleacherreport.com/wvu-football
http://wvmetronews.com/wvu-sports/
Hashtag – #HailWV
Accounts to follow
https://twitter.com/WVUfootball
https://twitter.com/mikecasazza