West Virginia Mountaineers 2023 College Football Preview
July 16, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 6-6
CHOO CHOO! Make way for the MEDIOCRITY TRAIN.
It was another dull year for the Mountaineers and they’ve now won precisely five or six games in each season under the Neal Brown regime. We give them props tho for finishing the year with a bit of GUSTO as they took down Oklahoma and Oklahoma St in the final three weeks of the campaign.
West Virginia Mountaineers 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Mountaineers had the best offense of Neal Brown’s tenure as they averaged 30+ PPG (30.6) for the first time since 2018. Sadly, that still ranked them #9 in the explosive Big 12. West Virginia will be able to run the football effectively this season as they’ve got a mobile starting QB in Garrett Greene (6.1 rush, 119 rush vs Sooners LY), a deep RB group that includes one of our favs in CJ Donaldson (526, 6.0, 8 TD), and a talented and experienced offensive line that returns five (!) starters. The THROW GAME is gonna have problems as Greene isn’t a talented passer (yet) and he’ll be without his top-four targets from last year’s squad.
DEFENSE
The Mountaineers took a major step backwards last year and allowed 33 PPG (#9 Big 12) after yielding just 24 PPG in 2021. Seven starters are retained this year including their top-three tacklers but they’ll be without some key pieces up front including star DT Dante Stills (9 TFL, 6 QBH). They hope to set up a good DL rotation with help from the transfer portal and we’ll see how things go. Leading tackler Lee Kpogba is back at LB and they’ve got a good safety tandem (Burks, Floyd) that both finished in the top-three in tackles LY. Also note that the secondary was the biggest beneficiary of transfer portal goodies.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Oliver Straw returns to handle the punting duties and he did good work in 2022 (42.5, 41.3) and they pilfered Michael Haynes from Georgia St to take over the PK role (11-14 FG LY). They need to get more from the PR and KR doods.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They’ve got a pair of tough non-conference games to deal with (at Penn St, Pitt) and have to face Oklahoma and TCU on the road. The second half of the season is manageable so hopefully they’ll still have some life when they head into mid-October. Good news incoming…..they miss Texas.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UCF (October 28)
It’s never easy to win in the BOUNCE HOUSE and this game pops up between a pair of winnable home games (Oklahoma St, BYU).
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 16
Over 5 -110
Under 5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
They’ve got a lot of winnable Big 12 games and if they can find a way to beat Pitt you might be able to LOCK this BAD BOY up. Well, at least for a push. Also recall that Brown has never failed to win at least five games during his time in Morgantown.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Per the great PHIL STEELE, West Virginia is 18-4 under Neal Brown when they rush for 100+ yards and just 3-21 when they don’t reach that threshold. #STEELENUGGET
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
There’s no doubt that Neal Brown’s WEDDING TACKLE is getting a bit toasty on the hot seat. We don’t love the roster but feel pretty confident that this team can make it to six wins and bowl eligibility based on the strength of their rushing attack. We don’t think the schedule is too difficult as they only have two or three games that appear unwinnable. Go get ’em, WEST BY GOD VIRGINIA!