College Football Predictions – Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record –3-9
ATS – 6-5-1
GLUG GLUG GLUG.
The fortunes of the Hilltoppers kept sinking into the depths of mediocrity last year as they only managed to bag three wins. That marked the third consecutive annual decline in their win total from the heights of the magical 2015 season in which they went 12-2 and won the Conference USA Championship. To be fair, they lost four (!) games by exactly three points AND finished the season with a road win over Louisiana Tech. However, the reality is that this program is capable of a lot more. And they shouldn’t be losing to Maine.
New HC Tyson Helton will try and get the Toppers’ MOJO back. Let’s see what the future holds.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #6
Conference USA – #10
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Western Kentucky averaged a PIDDLY 21 PPG last year (#11 C-USA). It’s hard to believe that this team used to move like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense. You may recall the recent good times in which the Toppers scored 40+ PPG in three consecutive campaigns (2014-2016). What do things look like this year?
We have good things to report. For starters, TEN starters are back for duty including their top-two QBs and they add Arkansas transfer Ty Storey into the QB room. They are deep at the position and it will be interesting to see how things transpire during fall camp. We expect better numbers regardless of who is under center. The WR and TE groups were pretty underwhelming a season ago but they return seven of their top eight targets and just need some improved QB play to develop into a solid unit. The returnees include the appropriately-named #1 WR Lucky Jackson who led the team in “balls caught after deflecting off opponents’ helmets”. ***
The offensive line returns all five starters including 2nd Team C-USA performer RT Miles Pate and they will be blocking for a decent-looking set of RBs. Joshua Samuel led the team in rushing last season (641, 5.3 YPC) and Quinton Baker returns to the team after being exiled by former coach Mike Sanford and playing in two games with Portland St (FCS) in 2018. We expect a significant increase in overall offensive output this year.
*** that is not a legitimate statistic, nor is it tracked by the NCAA
DEFENSE
The Toppers have been solid over the past four seasons allowing between 24.6 and 27.8 PPG on each occasion during that time horizon (27.8 LY). DC Clayton White returns this year and has six returning starters back for duty. The run defense needs to improve (173 YPG LY, #10 C-USA), and while the DL looks pretty good, they are certain to miss their leading tackler LB Ben Holt who transferred to Purdue. Thankfully, 2nd Team C-USA honoree LB Ta’Corian Darden returns to the unit after finishing 3rd on the team in tackles a season ago whilst booking 4 TFL and 11 PBU. The pass defense was decent last year and they haven’t allowed 60%+ completions since 2014. Two starters return to the secondary and they add former NC State product Trae Meadows at CB.
This looks like another decent WKU stop unit, especially if they can replicate the pressure they put on opposing QBs in 2018 (28 sacks, #6 C-USA).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The special teams were anything but ‘special’ last year and it’s unclear what to expect in 2019. It’s not a certainty who will start at PK or P as we go to press and they averaged a mere 4.8 yards per punt return LY (#114 FBS).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Things get off to a fast start with a road date at FIU in week two. It’s not unthinkable that they could SHOCK THE WORLD in week three when they tackle Louisville in Nashville. They don’t have back-to-back true road games at any point which is good, but they face tough UAB and Southern Miss squads from the C-USA West.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Army (October 12)
Nobody wants to play Army and this bad boy is booked between C-USA dates with Old Dominion and Charlotte.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -120
Under 5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
That number looks on the money. They’re a virtual LOCK to improve on last year’s win total but not sure they bag bowl eligibility.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
Let’s start from scratch and forget that the last two years ever happened. K?
This is one of the tougher teams to figure out. At least that’s the view at MEGALOCKS HQ. If the offense can achieve an average level of performance, it’s not unreasonable to think they can get back to a bowl game, or at least pull a couple of upsets along the way. We think they are a year away from being a serious C-USA contender but wish new HC Tyson Helton the best of luck in 2019.
We almost always mark a team with a neutral ATS view when they are in year one with a new HC. If we had to guess, we think it’s more likely this team exceeds market expectations than it is they disappoint DEGENERATE NATION. Keep them in the back of your mind for now.
Go Tops!
Want more Western Kentucky Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.wkusports.com/sports/m-footbl/wky-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/western-kentucky/Board/Smith-Stadium-104579/
http://www.hilltopperhaven.com/board/index.php/board,4.0.html?PHPSESSID=n405ga777t1udcp1h3gh80m0q7
NEWS
http://wkuherald.com/sports/football/
http://www.bgdailynews.com/sports/wku/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/98/western-kentucky-hilltoppers
http://bleacherreport.com/western-kentucky-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/western-kentucky-hilltoppers
TWITTER
Hashtag – #GoTops
Accounts to follow