College Football Predictions – Western Michigan Broncos 2018 NCAA Football Preview
Recap
Record – 6-6
ATS – 5-6-1
The Broncos missed out on a bowl game for the first time since 2013 (!) despite finishing with a record of 6-6. Their first two games were really difficult, almost to the point of being a cruel joke (at USC, at Michigan St). They held their own in those contests and got on a bit of a roll until their starting QB was knocked out for the year. Yes, they were not selected for a bowl game, but fans (and MEGALOCKS HQ) will always remember the insane 7-OT win over the Buffalo Bulls (71-68). That happened.
How about we examine their prospects for 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
MAC – Tied #7
West Division – #4
Western Michigan Broncos 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Broncos appear to have one of the top QBs in the MAC leading the offense. Jon Wassink completed 64% of his passes with a fine 14-4 TD to INT ratio last year before getting injured. The passing game sputtered without him in the lineup but things should be fine this year with almost everyone in the WR group returning for duty . They will miss 2nd Team MAC TE Donnie Ernsberger (34-394, 4 TD LY).
The strength in the Broncos’ offense has been a running game that has pounded out 200+ yards per game on average over the past three seasons. This season Western Michigan must deal with the loss of the program’s all-time leading rusher (!) Jarvion Franklin who had over 1,200 yards rushing last year. They appear to have some decent depth to work with as Jamauri Bogan and LeVante Bellamy combined for over 1,000 yards rushing and 6 TDs on the ground in 2017. As long as the offensive line can continue their fine work the Broncos should be able to continue scoring a lot of points. The OL returns 4/5 starters including 1st Team MAC C John Keenoy, although they will miss star LT Chukwuma Okorafor who is off to the NFL (Steelers).
DEFENSE
The Broncos played pretty sound defense last season (#55 FBS total defense) and the numbers look even better if you account for the fact that the game with Buffalo lasted almost two days. This season we are a bit worried about the stop unit as they only have five returning starters and they bagged just 21 sacks a season ago (#9 MAC). They will also be without the top three tacklers from the 2017 team. The front seven is lacking in experience (and size?) but the secondary looks to be in good shape, even considering the loss of an NFL draft pick at CB (Darius Phillips – Bengals).
This feels like an average MAC defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Western Michigan was strong on special teams in 2017 but have a pair of under-the-radar losses to deal with this year. P Derrick Mitchell averaged close to 40 yards net and KR Darius Phillips had a pair of TDs (26.3). PK Josh Grant is back and he nailed 15/23 FG attempts in 2017 (5/8 from 40+ yards).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It doesn’t appear to be too bad. The visit to Michigan will be a BODY BAG GAME but they face Georgia St on the road instead of USC (2017). Almost all of their big conference tilts are at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Central Michigan (October 20). This will be the Broncos 4th roadie in five weeks. FIRE UP CHIPS are coming off a home game with Ball St.
Season Win Total
Over – 6.5 -115
Under – 6.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
We will take a neutral stance for now. They definitely have enough talent on offense to get to seven wins. We worry about the defense and the difficulty at the end of the docket (home dates with Toledo, Ohio, Northern Illinois in three of their last four games).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Western Michigan is the only non-Power 5 school to have had an offensive lineman drafted in each of the past three NFL drafts. Startle your TRIGGER HAPPY COLLEGE BUDDY with that trivia gem next time you go hunting.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BRONCOS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
The Broncos were better than it appears last season. The schedule was unkind to say the least, and it’s not easy to play tough conference games without your starting QB. They appear to be a solid squad on paper this year but do not have same talent edge as in recent seasons.
The Broncos were essentially a .500 squad last year vs the point spread and we anticipate a similar result in 2018. Pick your spots.
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