Wisconsin at Iowa – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
The two favorites in the Big Ten West do battle in Iowa City under the lights on Saturday night. You young Sparkies out there may not like these old school MEAT GRINDING, SNOT BUBBLING and low-scoring specials, but some of us still enjoy a good physical football game. Both teams have excellent defenses and each squad can run the football. Who comes out on top?
The Details
Wisconsin -3 Iowa (43.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wisconsin -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wisconsin 23.5 Iowa 20.25
The Match-Up:
Wisconsin offense vs Iowa defense
The Badgers have an excellent offensive line and a Heisman Trophy contender at RB in Jonathan Taylor who has already rushed for over 500 yards and 5 TDs in three games. The passing game has been a struggle so far and QB Alex Hornibrook only has three TD passes despite getting a good look at a pair of bad defenses (WKU, New Mexico). Attrition, suspensions and injuries have not helped matters BUT Wisconsin needs to figure things out PRONTO. They take on an Iowa defense this week that is ranked #2 in the FBS in total defense AND vs the run. They haven’t played any big-time offenses but there is no doubt they are playing well (12 sacks) and will be full of confidence when they take the field on Saturday. It doesn’t seem reasonable to expect the Badgers to have more than a small handful of successful drives so they need to be efficient in the red zone and maybe take advantage of a short field or two.
Iowa offense vs Wisconsin defense
It has been a bit of a debacle so far if you throw out the 38-14 win over something called Northern Iowa. They were only up 3-0 at the half vs Northern Illinois before they wore them down and only scored 13 vs Iowa St. QB Nathan Stanley is also a part of the “only has 3 TD passes” club but the running game has been a pleasant surprise with Toren Young leading the way (234 yards rushing). Stanley needs to find a way to get some big plays out of the WR group. Their leading receiver is TE Noah Fant who has 140 yards in three games. The Wisconsin defense has shown a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run compared to recent Badger defenses (#48 vs run) and they only have 3 (!) sacks so far after bagging 42 (!) a season ago. File that away under IMPORTANT NUGGETS.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The road team has won eight of the last eleven meetings….Wisconsin is a really good road favorite ATS…..Iowa is a fine home dog…..Something has to give. AMIRITE?
Summary
This is gonna be fun. We made this line Wisconsin -6.5 in the summer and have adjusted it down to the market price of -3. Iowa has played a bit better than we thought. The Wisconsin defense has us a bit concerned. If Wisconsin can’t get the run game going it is going to cause all kinds of problems given that Iowa has been living in opponents’ backfields all season, essentially setting up tables and chairs and having a tea party. As good as RB Jonathan Taylor and the OL may be, it seems to us that QB Hornibrook is going to have to have one of his better games to pull this thing off. A month a go we thought Wisconsin could just “game manage” this puppy. Not so sure now.
In any event, it should be a close and low-scoring classic. Get cho popcone.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet. Still debating our options.
Side: Slight lean to Iowa.
Total: Slight lean to the under. Lean to Wisconsin team total under.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.