Wisconsin at Michigan – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s SWEET BIG TEN ACTION at the Big House on Saturday night when Wisconsin visits Michigan in a battle of conference heavyweights. The Wolverines have rattled off five consecutive wins after an opening week loss to the JUGGERNAUT Fighting Irish. The Badgers are sitting at 4-1 and have a temporary stranglehold on the West division after their win over Iowa.
Who comes out on top?
The Details
Michigan -8.5 Wisconsin (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 28.75 Wisconsin 20.25
The Match-Up:
Wisconsin offense vs Michigan defense
This should be fun to watch.
The Badgers bring their excellent offensive line and star RB Jonathan Taylor to the table and will try and get things going on the ground vs the #1 ranked defense in the FBS (yards per game AND yards per play). Taylor has already bagged 849 yards (6.7) and 8 TDs on the ground and it will be interesting to see what he can do on Saturday night. QB Alex Hornibrook has been efficient this season and has probably done the most possible with the weapons at his disposal. WR AJ Taylor has emerged as their premium target in the passing game and TE Jake Ferguson will probably need to have a big day for the Badgers to win this one. Michigan doesn’t give up much at all and they also get fine PENETRATION (T2 sacks Big Ten, #1 TFL). Wisconsin is going to have to get the most out of their red zone possessions (assuming they get some. just kidding. not really) and take advantage of any Michigan mistakes to exceed their implied point total.
Michigan offense vs Wisconsin defense
This is Shea Patterson’s first big conference test and there is no reason to think he is not up for the challenge. Patterson has also been very efficient and ALSO has a lack of premium targets to work with when he decides to MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game. TE Zach Gentry leads the team in receptions and receiving yards. The WR duo of Nico Collins and Donovan Peoples-Jones is getting more dangerous as the season rolls along but the Wolverines still lack a proven #1 option. The story of the game just might be the Wisconsin defense. Last season the Badgers finished #2 in the FBS in total defense, #1 in pass efficiency defense, #5 on 3rd downs and T2 in sacks (42). This year those rankings are #41, #72, #64 and #121 (!). Michigan is not explosive but they should been able to execute a balanced game plan and score some points. We like the fact that the Wolverines have recorded 13 rushing TDs and 12 passing TDs as a team.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The home team has won eight of the last nine games straight-up……Wisconsin HC Paul Chryst has an amazing record on the road (15-1)……His only loss?……at Michigan in 2016 (14-7).
Summary
At first glance it certainly seems like a lot of points to give the Badgers who lose games by more than a TD seemingly once every 24 years. It seems strange to say that their fortunes in this game are going to come down to the offense doing some damage, as opposed to relying on their defense. Michigan is going to have success on offense there is little doubt about that. The question becomes, can the Badgers force some turnovers and/or get a defensive or special teams score to help them out?
Conclusion
Official play: None yet. (stay tuned)
Side: Lean to Michigan.
Total: Slight lean to the over.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.