Wisconsin Badgers 2016 NCAA Football Preview
WISCONSIN BADGERS
Big 10 Conference – West Division
2015 Record – 10-3
ATS – 7-6
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division #4
Conference – #6 (Tie)
2015 Recap
The Badgers rode the #1 scoring defense in the FBS (13.7 points per game) to an impressive 10-3 record and a Holiday Bowl victory over USC. Wisconsin had an amazing stretch early in the season where they gave up only 13 (!) points in a 4-game span including two shutouts. Only one of those games was tough but any time you are that stingy it is impressive. There is no doubt that the loss to Northwestern at home in November was disappointing, but make no mistake, the killer was the early season home game against Iowa where they fell 10-6 despite giving up only 221 yards (77 passing). That put them behind the proverbial 8-ball in the division because Iowa refused to lose.
OFFENSE
The bad news is that the Badgers lose their #2 all-time leading passer. The good news is that Joel Stave was very average last season and threw as many interceptions (11) as TD passes. Wisconsin just needs either Bart Houston or Alex Hornibrook to be a decent game manager and let the running game and defense do its thing. MEGALOCKS Big 10 INSIDERS tell us that the competition is wide open heading into August.
It was strange not to see Wisconsin plowing people with the run game last year. The offensive line was inconsistent and hit with injuries and #1 RB Corey Clement was not healthy. The Badgers look to have their typical bruising ground attack ready to go this season with a big and more experienced offensive line to go along with a deep group of running backs.
The Badgers leading receiver (by a huge margin) from 2015 is gone and they are going to need a player or two to step up to give opposing defenses something to think about.
DEFENSE
The front seven looks to be really good again. They are probably not going to give up less than 100 yards rushing per game again (hot take), particularly given their schedule, but they should be able to handle all but the best rushing attacks. Only one starter returns in the secondary but they do not face many lethal passing games in 2016.
The question mark for us is the loss of DC Dave Aranda to LSU. While it is true that the players are the ones doing the work you have to wonder what impact his departure will have on the defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Rafael Gaglianone was 18/24 inside 50 yards last season which is pretty good. They were 9th in the Big 10 in kickoff returns last season and 11th in punt returns. They also need to break in a new punter. Mixed bag.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Here is a shout out to the Badgers. They start the season facing LSU for the second time in three years. Oh, and last season they played Alabama to open the year. We have a lot of respect for teams that schedule tough out-of-conference games. The problem this season is that after facing LSU in week one they have a brutal four-game sequence in games 4 through 7 (at Michigan St, at Michigan, Ohio St, at Iowa). Yikes.
Overall, we give the BADGERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season. We are on the fence with this squad. Very good running game and defense. New QB, new DC and tough schedule. What really concerns us is the quality of run defenses that they will have to face. It just feels like an uphill battle for them this season, although they do have a couple of soft spots on the schedule, and that should lead to woodshed treatment for the opposition and ATS wins for the Badgers.
Want more Wisconsin football?
Website
http://www.uwbadgers.com/index.aspx?path=football
Forum
http://www.scout.com/college/wisconsin/forums/2560-football-board
http://wisconsin.247sports.com/Board/Badgers-Message-Board-23
http://buckyville.yuku.com/forums/1/Badger-Football-Board/Badger-Football-Board#.V6KKLLgrKiO
News
http://www.buckys5thquarter.com/
http://bleacherreport.com/wisconsin-badgers-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/wisconsin-badgers
https://twitter.com/BadgerFootball @BadgerFootball
https://twitter.com/jaypo1961 @jaypo1961 Jeff Potrykus
https://twitter.com/jessetemple @jessetemple Jesse Temple
https://twitter.com/Jason_Galloway @Jason_Galloway Jason Galloway