Wisconsin Badgers 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Wisconsin Badgers 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 13-1

ATS – 9-5

Roll baby, roll.

The Badgers steamrolled their way to a 12-0 record heading into the Big 10 Championship game but could not get past Ohio St. They finished up with a win over YOUR Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl to put the icing on a 13-1 season. It may be true that their schedule was a bit “light”, but the fact remains Wisconsin has had an amazing run over the past four seasons bagging 11,10,11 and 13 wins. All they have to do now is take the next step and get to the College Football Playoff.

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #1

Big 10 – #3

Wisconsin Badgers 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

This should be fun. Star RB Jonathan Taylor garnered 2nd Team AA honors as a true freshman last season as he rushed for nearly 2,000 yards (1,977). Taylor should have a monster year running behind a massive and talented offensive line that is chock-full of NFL-level talent. QB Alex Hornibrook threw too many picks last season (25 TD, 15 INT), but overall, he is a nice complement to their devastating ground attack. The Badgers finished up #23 in the FBS in rushing and #23 in passing efficiency. Wisconsin will definitely miss star TE Troy Fumagalli (NFL – Denver) who was comically uncoverable (a football term. or at least it should be) but have promise at WR with Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis.

This offense should be able to rip many teams on their schedule to shreds. Our Wisconsin INSIDERS project their best offensive output since 2011 when they lit up the scoreboard for 44 points per game (33.8, 34.6, 34.8 in three of the last five seasons).

DEFENSE

You want defense? The Badgers can give you that too. Wisconsin was #2 in total defense last season and were an amazing #3 vs the run and #1 (!) in pass efficiency defense. Again, it was not a Murderers’ Row in terms of a schedule, but DC Jim Leonhard did a fantastic job.

There are only four returning starters on the 2018 stop unit and it will be interesting to see if the Badgers can achieve the same level of PENETRATION (42 sacks LY) and disruption. They are much less experienced on the DL but return their top-2 tacklers in LBs TJ Edwards (1st Team AA) and Ryan Connelly. They lose a lot of talent in the secondary and will almost certainly be down a notch in the pass efficiency defense rankings this year. Wisconsin has not allowed more than 16 points or 100 yards rushing (!) in any of the past three campaigns. On paper they still appear to be a top-20 defense, but it remains to be seen if they can be dominant.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The unit boasts an excellent PK in Rafael Gaglianone who connected on 16/18 field goal attempts in 2017 (4/4 from 40+ yards). The return game could use some additional spice.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The non-conference schedule looks like a total cakewalk (WKU, New Mexico, BYU) but they do face tough road tests at Iowa, Michigan and Penn St. If they can bag a pair of wins in those three games (likely) it will almost certainly mean another trip to the Big 10 Championship.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – BYU (September 15). This game follows a pair of almost-certain blowout wins (WKU, New Mexico) and precedes a road date with Iowa. The spread is likely to be yuuuuuge and BYU is scrappy and probably improved. Wisconsin handled the Cougars on the road by a score of 40-6 last season. What could possibly go wrong?

Season Win Total

Over 10 +110

Under 10 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. They would have to lose almost all of their tough games to finish up with three losses. Seems like a decent play at plus money.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

In 1993, Wisconsin defeated Michigan St 41-20 in the Coca-Cola Bowl in TOKYO (!) to earn their first Rose Bowl berth in 31 years. Amaze your ANNOYING CO-WORKERS with that knowledge bomb.

The last time the Badgers allowed more than 22 points per game was 2008 (26.5), the year that Breaking Bad was just getting started.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BADGERS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.

This has the potential for a special season. If Wisconsin can find a way to get back to the Big 10 Championship Game (one loss or better), and win the thing, they will make the College Football Playoff. The offense will be comically efficient, and the defense should still be rock solid, even with just four returning starters. The schedule has a few land mines, but there are lots of easy wins to enjoy.

HC Paul Chryst has done a wonderful job posting a mark of 34-7 with the Badgers including a 14-1 (!) record on the road. Even better? The Badgers are 26-14-1 (65%) (!) against the point spread the past three seasons. REGRESSION GUY may forecast a downturn in Vegas fortunes this year, but it seems to us that the Badgers are loaded and not an optimal fade. Besides, boring is usually never in vogue. Value will probably still be present.

We are on the Badgers train but the best point spread opportunities will likely come in their road games (just .500 ATS L3Y as home chalk).

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WEBSITE

http://www.uwbadgers.com/index.aspx?path=football

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