College Football Predictions – Wisconsin Badgers 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 4-9
They are human!
Wisconsin failed to win ten games for the first time since 2013 when they had a ‘horrible’ mark of 9-4. It was also strange to NOT see them in the Big Ten Championship game as they had made appearances in three of the previous four editions. They got sketchy QB play and the defense was down a notch from recent times. They totally dismantled Miami in the Pinstripe Bowl which was a 900,009 STAR MEGALOCKS HAMMER LOCK BOWL STEAM PLAY winner.
The West division of the Big Ten is very competitive. Let’s find out if Wisconsin has what it takes to get back to the conference title game in December.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Big 10 – #8
Wisconsin Badgers 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Graham Mertz era begins. The highly-regarded true freshman is destined to be the starting QB for the Badgers and it will interesting to see how he does in his first season. The best news possible is being able to hand off to your ALL-UNIVERSE RB Jonathan Taylor who is coming off another amazing year (2,194, 16 TD, 7.1). Yup, that’s right. Over 2,000 yards rushing. Bradrick Shaw is back at RB (injured LY) and should ease Taylor’s load just a bit. The WR and TE groups return essentially intact and will provide reliable options for Mertz when he chooses to MATRICULATE the ball down the field in the passing game. Actually, the targets in the THROW GAME look pretty good, particularly WR Danny Davis, WR AJ Taylor, and TE Jake Ferguson.
Our primary concern, although it may sound strange, is the offensive line. We KNOW the Badgers just reload at this position but they return just one starter to the unit, albeit that one man is a 1st Team Big Ten C in Tyler Biadasz. The Badgers have had a pair of recent seasons in which they were sub-par running the football by their standards. They averaged 4.3 YPC in 2016 and 3.8 YPC in 2015. Those were still really good teams but they had the benefit of ridiculously good defenses.
We think the Badgers score somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 PPG which is essentially what they did in 2018 (29.7).
DEFENSE
The Badgers defense was good last year (344 YPG, #4 Big Ten) but they allowed 22.6 PPG which was their worst mark since 2009 (21.8). These guys have set a high standard and we can’t wait to see if they get back to what they were the previous three seasons. For example, last year they allowed 155 YPG on the ground after a three-year run of yielding 98, 99, and 95 YPG.
Wisconsin brings back six starters to the stop unit but lose their top-two tacklers who both happened to be star linebackers. TJ Edwards and Ryan Connelly combined for over 200 tackles (!) and 21.5 TFL a season ago. That’s a lot of production that requires replacement. The DL should be fine as usual with some nice size, and LB Zach Baun was third on the team in tackles a season ago whilst leading the team in QBH (8). The secondary had a lot injuries to deal with but brings back three starters to a unit that banked a decent 14-14 TD to INT mark in 2018. One more thing. The Badgers suffered an alarming decrease in PENETRATION last campaign bagging a mere 19 sacks (#12 Big Ten) after racking up 42 (!) in 2017. They have to find a way to force more negative plays.
We see the Badgers improving on defense but it’s unlikely that they return to the ridiculous levels of the 2017 (13.9 PPG) or 2016 (15.6 PPG) units.
SPECIAL TEAMS
WHOA NELLIE. That stench floating through the air might be coming from the memory of the 2018 special teams unit that couldn’t do much of anything right. We have to assume there will be more problems on the horizon given that most of the crew is back other than their PK.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The out-of-conference docket should be a slam dunk (at USF, FIRE UP CHIPS, Kent St), although we suppose the Bulls could give them a bit of a game. Our WEEK ONE INSIDERS tell us that the spread is in the -10/-11 range as we go to press. The Big Ten schedule will be a challenge as they face Ohio St and Michigan from the East division AND finish the year with four of their final six games on the road. Fun fact: Their first road game is on August 30. Their next road game is October 19 when they travel to face Illinois. That’s a scheduling quirk, yo.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Kent St (October 5th)
Don’t adjust your sets. We are serious. The Golden Flashes will be improved and this game falls right in the middle of conference play (Northwestern, Michigan St). The Badgers will be laying a TON of points and this is probably not the spot you want to give 30+.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -150
Under 8 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Playing with a true freshman QB in a tough division has us leaning to the ‘under’. Not sure we will get down on this bad boy because it’s not in our DNA to bet against Wisconsin.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Wikipedia is awesome. AMIRITE?
The team’s nickname originates from the early history of Wisconsin. In the 1820s and 1830s, prospectors came to the state looking for minerals. Without shelter in the winter, the miners had to “live like badgers” in tunnels burrowed into hillsides.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This program is as reliable as they come. Wisconsin has an impressive 102 wins over the past ten years and is a contender for the Big Ten title pretty much every year. It will be intriguing to see how they fare after a bit of a down season by their standards, particularly while being led (presumably) by a true freshman QB.
Wisconsin boasts an excellent ATS record (57%) over the past ten years. They are a tough team to bet against BUT we will take a neutral view to start the season until we get a feel for if these guys have a shot to be “vintage Wisconsin”.
Want more Wisconsin football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.uwbadgers.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/wisconsin/Board/Football-Board-103797/
http://wisconsin.247sports.com/Board/Badgers-Message-Board-23
http://buckyville.yuku.com/forums/1/Badger-Football-Board/Badger-Football-Board#.WYHu4rpFyiM
https://wisconsin.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-badgers-den.6/
NEWS
http://www.buckys5thquarter.com/
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/275/wisconsin-badgers
http://bleacherreport.com/wisconsin-badgers-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/wisconsin-badgers
TWITTER
Hashtag – #OnWisconsin
Accounts to follow