Wyoming at New Mexico St – College Football Predictions
The Game
The last time you could talk about Wyoming and New Mexico St both coming into a season opener off bowl wins was………..never. That’s because New Mexico St won their first bowl game in program history last season by beating Utah St in the Arizona Bowl (26-20, OT).
Wyoming is a contender in the deep Mountain West Mountain division while New Mexico St will look to make it BACK-to-BACK JACKS with bowl appearances (and wins).
Let’s goooooo!
The Details
Wyoming -4 New Mexico St (46)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wyoming -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wyoming 25 New Mexico St 21
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Wyoming 27 New Mexico St 21
The Match-Up
Wyoming offense vs New Mexico St defense
And…..there goes a #1 NFL draft pick.
Wyoming finished last season ranked #125 (!) in total offense despite playing in the Mountain West and enjoying the services of Josh Allen at QB. There appears to be a close battle for the starting QB gig as we go to press between redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal and Nick Smith who had 74 attempts last season. The receiving corps returns a lot of experience although they will be without last year’s #2 WR CJ Johnson for an undetermined amount of time. Our DEEP WYOMING INSIDERS have indicated that last season’s #1 RB Trey Woods has moved to defense (!) this year and that true freshman Nico Evans has looked pretty good in practice.
New Mexico St had a sneaky-good defense last season bagging 43 (!) sacks and allowing less than 30 PPG for the first time since the Abraham Lincoln administration. They will be without star DE Cedric Wilcots for this event but still have eight other returning starters and a fine DC in Frank Spaziani. The Wyoming offense should be right in their wheelhouse. It seems unlikely that Wyoming exceeds 30 PPG and they appear to have a tough road ahead to get past their team total.
New Mexico St offense vs Wyoming defense
The Aggies have a similar level of uncertainty at QB given the departure of the program’s #2 all-time leading passer in Tyler Rogers who had 566 pass attempts last year while somehow avoiding having his arm fall CLEAN OFF. Our NEW MEXICO ST INSIDERS are high on JC transfer Matthew Romero and also think that Nick Jeanty can do a decent job. We are most concerned with the loss of the Aggies’ #2 all-time leading rusher Larry Rose who was reliable on the ground and a threat in the passing game (55 receptions LY). The passing attack is definitely going to miss WR Jaleel Scott who was a machine in 2017 (76, 1,079, 9 TD) and is off to the NFL (Ravens).
Wyoming was exceptional on defense last year finishing #23 in the FBS. They also were #1 in forced turnovers (38) (!) and should be licking their chops going up against a team with a new QB and no proven rushing attack.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Wyoming managed just 286 YPG on offense last season despite boasting one of the best QBs in the history of mankind…..New Mexico St home games are 8-0-1 to the under L9……Wyoming is 6-1 to the under L7….The Cowboys were a comical (+24) in turnover margin last season including an epic (+8) in the MEGALOCKS 9,009 STAR SEMI-LATE PHONE RELEASE LOSER vs Central Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
Summary
This is a tough game to handicap. Both teams are starting a new QB and each squad has a good defense. Points will be at a premium. New Mexico St couldn’t run the ball consistently last season with Larry Rose in the fold and what will they do now? How does Wyoming’s offense improve off their GREASE FIRE performance of 2017 without a #1 NFL DC at QB?
We have identified some “value” in taking the Aggies and the points BUT must admit it’s a bit of a sketchy proposition with a new QB, new starting RB and no DE Cedric Wilcots.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean:
Lean to the under.
Slight lean to New Mexico St getting +4 or more.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are likely to put ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.