Alabama at Florida – College Football Predictions

Alabama at Florida – College Football Predictions

The Game

Here we go, buh buh.

ROLL TIDE gets their first real test of the season as they travel to the SWAMP to battle Florida. They wiped the floor with Miami and Mercer but still have a lot of new faces at key positions on both sides of the football. Florida has used a devastating rushing attack to smoke a pair of lesser foes (FAU, USF) and come into this one at 2-0. SEC Saturday. Let’s do ittttttt!

The Details

Alabama -15 Florida (59)

MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -15

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 37 Florida 22

The Match-Up:

ROLL TIDE offense vs Florida defense

QB Bryce Young has looked really good so far (71%, 7-0 TD to INT) but this will be his first true road game. The THROW GAME hasn’t been consistently explosive and they’ve only hit one pass play over 41 yards so far this season. Of course, that was vs YOUR Miami Hurricanes when they blitzed everyone including the punter and left a world-class sprinter wide open for a 94-yard TD. But we digress. The run game has been good but not great. They’ve averaged just 4.2 YPC and haven’t had much success running outside the tackles. The Gators have allowed just 2.6 YPC but it’s hard to know how much they’ve improved given the level of competition. Ditto for the secondary which was rotten during the truncated 2020 plandemic season. One thing to note is that they’ve tallied 7 sacks in 2G and the ROLL TIDE OL is still a bit of a work in progress. There will be a small handful of big plays through the air but we’d but surprised if the ROLL TIDE run game dominated on Saturday. <grabs popcorn>

Florida offense vs ROLL TIDE defense

WOW. Ya, it’s early, but the Florida rushing attack has been lights out. They’ve booked 763Y in two games and averaged an impossible 8.5 YPC. They’ve got a PAIR of elite runners at the QB position and a deep stable of RBs. QB Emory Jones has rushed for 155Y and “backup” QB Anthony Richardson has rumbled for 275Y on just 11 carries. He is MUST SEE TV, but note he’s nursing a bit of a hamstring issue. 10 different players have caught a pass and WR Jacob Copeland is emerging as a legit #1 option (190, 2 TD). ROLL TIDE has been as advertised on D and allowed a mere 2.0 YPC whilst keeping deadly running QB D’Eriq King under wraps. Note that they’ve got 7 sacks in 2G but are #12 (!) in the SEC right now in pass efficiency D (3-4 TD to INT, 67%, 7.1). This makes us think that it’s not impossible for Florida to hit chunk plays in the THROW GAME if they can get something done running the ball. <grabs more popcorn> It’ll also be helpful if Jones stops throwing balls to the other team (4 INT). Note that star LB Will Anderson is listed as “Q” and that would be a yuuuge loss if he’s unable to roll.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Florida HC Dan Mullen is 0-10 vs Nick Saban……5-5 ATS…..Might be a bit wet, yo….Looks like temps in the 80s with an excellent chance of rain at some point during the game…..ROLL TIDE has won 31 consecutive games vs the SEC East.

Summary

We can’t wait. Alabama is still Alabama, but there’s no doubt that Florida has enough pop on offense to make this interesting for at least a little while. A lot of it depends on the health of Anthony Richardson who provides a virtually unstoppable dimension to the offense. GET CHO POPCONE, GONNA BE A SHOW.

Conclusion

No leanage for now. Stay tuned. Will come back with at least a small potatoes play (lean) sometime soon.

<update – lean Florida +8.5 first half -110>


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. < but always stay tuned for updates >

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in that market.

Team totalsWe list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release. 

Michigan St at Miami – College Football Predictions

Michigan St at Miami – College Football Predictions

The Game

YOUR Miami Hurricanes escaped with their lives last week and squeaked by App St (W 25-23) to even their record at 1-1. It was a sloppy performance but they were probably still a bit stunned after getting pounded by ROLL TIDE. Michigan St pulled a small upset on the road at Northwestern in week one and looked good doing it. They come into this BAD BOY with a mark of 2-0.

The Details

Miami -6.5 Michigan St (56.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -7

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 31.5 Michigan St 25

The Match-Up:

Miami offense vs Michigan St defense

The offense hasn’t looked very good (or consistent) so far, but to be fair, they’ve played one elite team and one really good squad. They’re #94 in the FBS in rushing and #96 in passing and have completed just 37% of 3rd down opportunities (#82 FBS). Cam’Ron Harris needs to start dominating (4.2 YPC) and the THROW GAME has to hit some big plays once in a while (long 36Y so far). Overall they have an above-average set of weapons but don’t (in our estimation) have a game changing player at RB or WR or TE. It’s the scheme and excellent QB play that makes things work (when they do). Michigan St’s D has looked decent but note that they’ve played a pair of weak offenses. This is a yuuuuge step up in class for SPARTY. Statistically, they’ve been MEH defending the run and the pass, and haven’t been that strong on 3rd downs. They’ve booked five sacks in 2G.

Michigan St offense vs Miami defense

Yes, guy.

QB Payton Thorne looks like a keeper to us after the first two games and he’s supported by a REALLY good 1-2 combo at RB in Kenneth Walker (321, 10.7, 264-4 TD vs Northwestern) (!) and Jordon Simmons (131, 6.2). The WR group is healthy <crosses fingers> and off to a really good start. Jayden Reed has already booked 245Y and a pair of TDs. They’ve only allowed 2 sacks in 2G. Miami has been abused in the first two games and we think the Michigan St offense is about equal to what App St puts out there, but with a much more imposing deep passing threat. The SPEEDY MIDGET DEFENSE strategy will be put to the test and note that Miami has only tallied a pair of sacks in 2G.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

The weather might favor Miami as they’re more used to hot conditions….Looks like 90 degrees or so with a decent chance of showers at some point…..Not much wind.

Summary

We’d feel better catching the full +7 with Sparty. It’s hard to see either defense having sustained success and there are plenty of big plays waiting to happen.

Conclusion

Lean – Over 56.5


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. < but always stay tuned for updates >

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in that market.

Team totalsWe list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release. 

Auburn at Penn St – College Football Predictions

Auburn at Penn St – College Football Predictions

The Game

Yes, guy.

It’s a yuuuuge SEC vs Big Ten match-up as Auburn travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn St for some SWEET NIGHT GAME ACTION. Auburn has smoked a pair of tomato cans (Akron, Alabama St) by a combined score of 122-10 whilst Penn St boasts a 2-0 record after taking care of Wisconsin (!) on the road and handling Ball St last week. Should be fun. Let’s do itttttt!

The Details

Penn St -6 Auburn (53)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Penn St -4.5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Penn St 29.5 Auburn 23.5

The Match-Up:

Penn St offense vs Auburn defense

The Nittany Lions struggled to move the ball vs Wisconsin but who wouldn’t? They looked a lot better vs Ball St and have shown good balance so far after two games (66 rush, 4.4; 64 pass). They’ll try and get things done on the ground behind Noah Cain (4.2) and the crafty running of QB Sean Clifford and take some deep shots for big plays. The WR group is underrated and Jahan Dotson is a big play waiting to happen. Auburn shows up near the top of most statistical categories but have played the weakest schedule imaginable. Only a game vs UConn would have made it worse. They’re still very talented and need to keep Penn St behind the chains and force them into regular 3rd and medium and 3rd and long situations.

Auburn offense vs Penn St defense

Bo Nix has performed much better at home than on the road during his career and will be in for a rude welcoming Saturday night from the Penn St faithful. The good news is that they have an excellent 1-2 RB combo in TANK Bigsby and Jacquez Hunter who’ve combined for 498Y and 4 TDs so far and note that BOTH dooods have averaged 10+ YPC. (!) That’s a FACT CHECK TRUE. The THROW GAME probably still needs some work but Nix has looked decent enough so far in 2021. Will they be able to hit some big plays throwing the ball? It’s hard to say. Nix will almost certainly try and keep plays alive with his legs and give his WRs extra time to gain separation. Penn St held Wisconsin to 3.1 YPC and haven’t allowed a TD pass yet this season. The pass rush hasn’t been elite (3 sacks in 2G).

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Penn St was 32-3 (!) SU at home over a five-year time horizon before finishing 2-3 during the 2020 casedemic season…….This is HC Bryan Harsin’s first yuuuuge test with Auburn and don’t forget that he did excellent work with Boise St and Arkansas St……Penn St is +5 in t/o margin….Auburn is +7 in net sacks.

Summary

These two teams look pretty evenly matched. The Tigers have shown the ability to be explosive (9.8 yards per play vs two turds) but will need to be more consistent on Saturday night. We expect both teams to start a bit slow on offense and then pick things up as the game moves along. Auburn has a shot but we’d need +7 to take a stab. They should be able to hold Penn St to under 30 points.

Conclusion

Lean – Penn St TT under 29.5 (implied)


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. < but always stay tuned for updates >

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in that market.

Team totalsWe list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.