Week 10 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Handy index: Quick Takes
- Ball St at Akron (TUESDAY)
- Miami Ohio at Ohio (TUESDAY)
- Eastern Michigan at Toledo (TUESDAY)
- Central Michigan at Western Michigan (WEDNESDAY)
- Northern Illinois at Kent St (WEDNESDAY)
- Indiana at Michigan
- UNLV at New Mexico
- Kansas St at Kansas
- ULM at Texas St
- USC at Arizona St
- San Diego St at Hawaii
- Utah St at New Mexico St
- Rice at Charlotte
- Old Dominion at FIU
- Pittsburgh at Duke
- Temple at East Carolina
- Appalachian St at Arkansas St
- North Texas at Southern Miss
- Navy at Notre Dame <updated Friday>
- California at Arizona
- Florida at South Carolina
- Oregon St at Colorado
- Missouri at Georgia
- Georgia Tech at Miami
- Tulsa at Cincinnati
- MTSU at Western Kentucky
- Georgia St at Louisiana (THURSDAY)
- Utah at Stanford (FRIDAY)
- Iowa at Northwestern
- Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern
- Virginia Tech at Boston College (FRIDAY)
- LSU at ROLL TIDE
- Ohio St at Nebraska
- Liberty at Ole Miss
- Penn St at Maryland
- Wake Forest at UNC
- San Jose St at Nevada
- Illinois at Minnesota
- Army vs Air Force
- SMU at Memphis
- Louisiana Tech at UAB
- Houston at USF
- UTSA at UTEP
- Tulane at UCF
- Michigan St at Purdue
- Oklahoma St at West Virginia
- Baylor at TCU
- Texas at Iowa St
- NC State at Florida St
- Wisconsin at Rutgers
- South Alabama at Troy
- Colorado St at Wyoming
- Mississippi St at Arkansas
- Marshall at FAU
- Boise St at Fresno St
Ball St -19 Akron (57.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Ball St -16
Vegas Implied Score – Ball St 38.25 Akron 19.25
Not a game we’re likely to get involved with…….The Zips are in the bottom three in the MAC of the vast majority of key stats we look at with a notable exception being passing efficiency (#2)….They haven’t hit the 400Y mark on offense in any game yet and their D is DUMPSTER JUICE….The only game left that we should expect max effort is Kent St (rival)…..Ball St is in an impossible 5-way (!) tie for 2nd in the MAC West…..Don’t think they’ll be sleeping but the line is a bit rich…..MEGALOCKS MARKET CONSENSUS ** ^^ has the game at 16.3 and we have it at 16.
** trademarked you rat bastards, do not use without our permission
^^ lighten up, Karen. It’s a joke.
Miami Ohio -7.5 Ohio (52.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 30 Ohio 22.5
Purely a POWER RATING NIBBLE for us…..we have the game lined lower and the MEGALOCKS MARKET CONSENSUS ** is Miami Ohio -4.4…..It’s a rivalry game (BATTLE of the BRICKS) so we expect a max effort on both sides….Ohio rarely loses MAC games by more than a TD and they have the #4 rush offense in the MAC but their D is fairly gross and Miami has the #3 run D in the conference…..Per the intrepid PHIL STEELE Ohio has been favored every year since 2006 so they may be 5% more motivated on the disrespect angle…..Big concern is the fact that Miami might be playing the best football in the MAC recently (?) and they’ve outgained all four MAC opponents and are 3-1 in those games (one point loss to EM)……Feels like Ohio should hang within the number but who the hell knows.
** known heretofore ^^ as “MMC”
^^ not sure what that word means but you doods that watched Game of Thrones DRAGON PORN probably heard it every episode
Lean – Ohio +7.5 <note – there are +8s out there – shop around, yo>
Toledo -9 Eastern Michigan (53) …….MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -9
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 31 Eastern Michigan 22
Line looks about right to us and the MMC has it at Toledo -9.1…..Both teams are within striking range of the top spot in the MAC West but need the JUGGERNAUT Huskies to lose a pair of games…and that might not even be enough…..In MAC competition…..Toledo has the #2 YPP offense and #1 YPP D…..These teams have the top-two pass efficiency defenses in the conference…..EM has the MUCH worse D but have a dynamic passing attack that should at least test the Rockets’ secondary….May come back to this one if the line hits +10 but we don’t think that will happen….maybe one chance in ten….Weather should be fine.
Western Michigan -10 Central Michigan (67) …….MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -7
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 38.5 Central Michigan 28.5
MMC – Western Michigan -10.0 <corrected, previously had -9.1>
Stop us if you’ve heard this before…..but BOTH of these teams are tied for 2nd in the MAC West….and they are dueling for the VICTORY CANNON…..Central Michigan has played Toledo and Northern Illinois tough in their last two games (W by 3, L by 1)…..Western Michigan has the higher upside on offense but have laid a few steaming TURDS along the way….We don’t love the QB situation at CM but they’ve booked 30,26,38 L3G…..These teams have the top-two run Ds in the MAC…..CM is #1 in the MAC in TFL/game…..WM special teams are gross….Line looks a bit high to us.
Lean – Central Michigan +10
Kent St -3.5 Northern Illinois (66.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Kent St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kent St 35 Northern Illinois 31.5
MMC – Kent St -4.3
Oh those WACKY Huskies……They sit atop the MAC West with a TWO-game lead and have a lot of close shaves on their resume…..wins by 1,7,2,1 but they all count, buh buh…..Their CLAIM TO FAME so far has been the #1 rushing offense in the MAC and and OL that allows very few negative plays (#1 MAC sacks allowed per game, #2 MAC TFL allowed per game)…..That’s bad news for a Kent St D that’s given up 300+ (!) rushing yards on three occasions…..The Huskies D is pretty awful and FLASHFAST should be able to move fast and SCORE the FOOTBALL…..Tough call at this price….Clock probably strikes midnight on Cinderella but have to respect what NIU has done so far, yo.
Michigan -19.5 Indiana (51) …….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -18
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 35.25 Indiana 15.75
Michigan fans got a surprise visit from the PULP FICTION GIMP on Saturday as the Wolverines carried the play (552-395 yard edge) and had a 16-point lead……then proceeded to TANK and allow Sparty to book the yuuuuge win…..UNFATHOMABLE torture…..The good news is that QB C McNamara showed some fine SKILLZ (383 pass yds) and the pass rush created problems….They’ve scored 30+ in four straight games and should be able to easily handle an Indiana squad that’s in free fall and has nothing to play for….Also note the Michigan might remember losing to the Hoosiers 38-21 LY…..Biggest worry is that Penn St is on deck for Michigan and that’s a do-or-die game for them in terms of Big Ten aspirations.
New Mexico -2 UNLV (45) …….MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico 23.5 UNLV 21.5
One of the uglier games on the board….UNLV hasn’t won a game since 2019 ** and come in off a blowout loss to their hated rival (Nevada)…..They can’t be trusted to win SU…..The Lobos broke a 5-game losing skid in their last effort (Wyoming) and roll into this bad boy off a bye…..Feels like the right side BUT note that NM has tallied just 122,288,226,193,69,259 yards of offense L6G.
** what a year. good times. the majority of the people you know weren’t brainwashed zombies gladly allowing their kids to be tortured in the name of “science”.
Kansas St -24 Kansas (56) …….MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 40 Kansas 16
Another ugly one, buh buh…..It’s been a while since the SUNFLOWER SHOWDOWN was a competitive affair (on paper) and the Cats are off back-to-back wins….one more equals bowl eligibility….They’re clearly the better squad but it’s a rivalry game and the ONLY game that Kansas truly cares about….As horrible as the Jayhawks are……and they are literally HOBO BUTT SAUCE….keep in mind that they led the Sooners after 3Q just two games ago……They can maybe possibly maybe possibly maybe hang around if Kansas St sleepwalks early.
Texas St -4 ULM (59) …….MEGALOCKS line – Texas St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 31.5 ULM 27.5
It looks like a basket of TURDS on the surface but it’s a tale of teams going in different directions…..Texas St appears to have SPIT THE BIT and will be home for the holidays….Disappointing given that they had an experienced roster and a HC entering year 3….The Warhawks have been a pleasant surprise underrated HC Terry Bowden and have won an impossible FOUR (!) games despite being outscored 220-125 along the way…Recall that they were winless during the 2020 scamdemic season…..They lost 59-28 to App St last week but were (-5) in turnovers…..They were +190,000,000,000 to make a bowl game prior to the season ** but could gain bowl eligibility with two more wins…..They’ve already upset South Alabama and Troy.
** needs fact check
Lean – ULM +4
Arizona St -8 USC (60) …….MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 34 USC 26
WHOA NELLIE…….that was quite the first half for the Sun Devils in their last “effort”….off a bye….turned the ball over four times in the first half en route to a 34-21 loss to Washington St….They let Utah beat them TWICE and now are resigned to juggling for bowl position….USC beat the smelly Wildcats and lost star WR D London for the year…..They are still explosive….Feels like fav or pass…..SHARPS took it HARD last week backing Arizona St and will probably drive it up to -10…..We agree to some extent but neither team can be trusted.
San Diego St -7 Hawaii (46) …….MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 26.5 Hawaii 19.5
MMC – San Diego St -8.1
The Aztecs took their first loss of the season last week when Fresno St came to town (L 30-20) but are still part of a 3-way tie in the division….The D has been excellent this season (#12 FBS total D, #6 run D, #7 pass eff D) and the THROW GAME got going last week on offense when they needed to play catch up (247Y) so at least we know they have SOME ability to MATRICULATE the ball down the field thru the air…..Hawaii’s bowl hopes are on life support and they just got smoked by Utah St (L 51-31)…..The D has been a disappointment and the offense?….inconsistent….SD with another big game on deck (Nevada)…….3 straight games for SD scoring 20 or less……May come back to this one feels like fav or pass…..pass for now.
Utah St -18.5 New Mexico St (71) …….MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -16
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 44.75 New Mexico St 26.25
HC Blake Anderson has Utah St played some good football as they’ve booked a record of 6-2 so far with their only losses coming to Boise St and BYU…..They scored 30+ last week for the first time in a while (51) and should appreciate the smelly New Mexico St D (#119 FBS total D, #125 scoring D)…..The OTHER Aggies have covered three straight games and are proven experts at SWEET BACKDOOR ACTION…..Line looks a bit rich…..Feels like dog or pass.
Charlotte -6 Rice (46) …….MEGALOCKS line – Charlotte -6
Vegas Implied Score – Charlotte 26 Rice 20
The Owls lost in OT to North Texas last week and now find themselves in dire straights in terms of gaining bowl eligibility (3-5)……Charlotte is in a similar boat (4-4) so it’s a kinda sorta “must-win” game for each team….Line looks close enough…..Backers of Charlotte double check status of starting QB Reynolds……HC lied last week about him practicing and being ready to go.
Old Dominion -3 FIU (52) …….MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Old Dominion 27.5 FIU 24.5
Yes, guy…..Great to see the Monarchs pull off the last second win over La Tech last week and book their first win over an FBS team in over 1000 days!…..They’ve certainly been scrappy this season….but yes…..there’s still a lot of work to be done…..FIU has been a horrible mess and massive disappointment this year and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be interested this week….Having said that….hard to lay points for ODU on the road.
Pittsburgh -21 Duke (64) …….MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -18
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 42.5 Duke 21.5
DIVE DIVE DIVE!!!
The Duke season has taken an unexpected (or maybe somewhat expected) detour to TURDVILLE as they’ve lost their last four games by a combined score of 162-41 and have seen their offense disappear right before our very eyes….Pitt was taken down by YOUR Miami Hurricanes last game in an epic shootout but still hold a one-game lead in the ACC Coastal….QB Kenny Pickett has been unbelievable (69%, 26-3 TD to INT) and should be able to shred the Duke D…..They have two big games up next (UNC, Virginia) and it sure isn’t cheap to back the Panthers.
East Carolina -15.5 Temple (54.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -17
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 35 Temple 19.5
HOOT HOOT is another team that’s starting to fall to pieces…..They won three of their first five games but have been destroyed to the tune of 135-24 (!) in their last three contests….They failed to crack 300Y of offense in any of those games and have allowed an average of 300+ yards on the ground L2G…The East Carolina AAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates need two more wins to hit their goal of bowl eligibility….and considering they must face Memphis and Cincy….this looks like close to a “must-win” and not a game they will overlook…..17 point spread still appears to be a bit high if anything.
Appalachian St -21 Arkansas (68) …….MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 44.5 Arkansas St 23.5
App St followed up their yuuuuuge win over Coastal Carolina with a blowout over ULM last week (W 521-391) and did it with the help of a robust (+5) t/o margin….They control their own destiny in the Sun Belt East so it’s not likely we see a letdown…..They’ve scored 45,30,59 in 3L4G and should be able to easily get into the 40s vs a Red Wolves D that is PURE FILTH (DEAD LAST FBS total D, 2nd last run D, #125 pass eff D)…..Note that Arkansas St can SCORE the FOOTBALL and they gave the mighty Cajuns all they could handle in their last home game (L 28-27).
North Texas -5 Southern Miss (48) …….MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -3
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 26.5 Southern Miss 21.5
The Mean Green won their first (!) game vs an FBS opponent this season last Saturday when they slithered past the Rice Owls in OT…..They’ve put up 400+ yards of total offense in each of their last three games and have shown decent balance….Southern Miss is 0-7 vs FBS teams and have one of the worst offenses in the country (#128 total offense, #126 rush, #113 pass) BUT note that the D has been REALLY good considering that they get no help from the offense (#40 total D, #50 run D)…..The Golden Eagles will pop someone before the season is out….Hard to know when, yo.
Notre Dame -20.5 Navy (46.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -18
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 33.5 Navy 13
MMC – Notre Dame -24.2
The Irish are quietly and efficiently mowing through the schedule and have only lost one game to date…..and that was a MEGALOCKS 900,000 STAR LATE PHONE RELEASE PLATINUM LOCK (Cincinnati)…..The offense is coming alive and Jack Coan appears to be the “starter” for now….They’ve allowed close to 1,000 (!) total yards L2G so that’s a bit of a worry and star DB K Hamilton is still unlikely to play…..Somehow someway Navy is staying competitive with some decent teams and have covered 5L6 (!) including last week’s win over Tulsa…..They’ve covered 5L7 vs ND….Gonna wait as see if we can gobble up a +21 for small potatoes.
Sorta lean – Navy +21 <waiting for this number; not down yet; will keep you updated>
<update Friday – lean Navy +21>
California -12 Arizona (51) …….MEGALOCKS line – California -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – California 31.5 Arizona 19.5
The Golden Bears almost certainly salvaged any shot of a bowl berth with an impressive in over Oregon St last week (W 39-25)…..They’ve been strong off the bye week and have rushed for 200+ rush yards in 3L4 games….The Cats are still SCRATCHING and CLAWING for their first win so you know they are hungry and note that they’ve taken down Cal five straight times…..They also played a respectable game vs the Trojans last week……Currently not living in a world where we would lay doubles with Cal ON THE HIGHWAY. Pass.
Florida -18 South Carolina (53) …….MEGALOCKS line – Florida -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 35.5 South Carolina 17.5
MMC – Florida -14.2
FUN with NUMBERS………Florida is 4-7 (!) SU in their last 11 games…..YIKES…..so are the ULM Warhawks **……and YOUR Miami Hurricanes are 6-5…….yup….those Gators have been a major disappointment but the good news is that they could easily end the regular season (should?) with four wins in a row and then have all the MOJO in their favor heading into their bowl game ^^ …..They should be able to handle the COCKS offense but the SC defense has been stingy at times despite allowing 40+ on three occasions…..COCKS will be JACKED UP for this one and they’ve won 3L5 SU…..Feels like a lot of points….Dog or pass for us…..Prob pass.
** doesn’t need fact check
^^ hopefully not the Tater Tots Bowl or San Francisco Human Feces Piled On The Sidewalk Bowl
Oregon St -10.5 Colorado (53.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -8
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 32 Colorado 21.5
The Beavers couldn’t stand the spotlight last week vs Cal and fell on the road (L 39-25)……NOW they really have to win or risk having the potential PAC 12 North title aspirations go down the proverbial CRAPPER….They are the much better squad but Colorado is a tough place to play and note that the BEAVS are just 1-3 SU away (4-0 home)….Buffs finally got a bit of a THROW GAME going last week but their offense is still horrific…..Another game that feels like dog or pass….Line value with home team but they could easily score 14 or less (done it 5 times already) making a cover very unlikely…..hmmmmm.
Georgia -38 Missouri (59) …….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -34
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 48.5 Missouri 10.5
MMC – Georgia -36.2
It’s time for the WHISKEY and REVOLVER special and the GREAT news is that degenerates can get the juices flowing early as this PIG of a game starts at high noon…….Georgia is the best team in the country and the D has been incredible…..Missouri’s D is TRASH but the question becomes how much interest will Georgia to have to keep scoring?…..And they only managed 354Y of offense last week vs Florida…….Dawgs have Vols on deck….Missouri has some weapons on offense and a decent QB and you have to believe they’ll play hard for 60 minutes even for just the sake of pride…..38 (!) point dog?…..Missouri ain’t UConn……We can see Missouri scoring 10-14 and Georgia taking the air out of the ball in the 3Q…..maybe…..hopefully.
Lean – Missouri +38
Miami -10 Georgia Tech (64) …….MEGALOCKS line – Miami -10
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 37 Georgia Tech 27
MMC – Miami -9.4
Yes, guy…..Miami has rattled off three straight wins and look pretty good on offense with new starting QB T Van Dyke (63%, 12-4 TD to INT) who has a LASER ROCKET ARM and lots of MOXY…..The D gets PENETRATION (#2 ACC TFL/game) but still need to learn how to “tackle” and “cover”….That makes laying DD a bit of a worry……GT has taken down your Canes twice in a row but haven’t looked good since the upset win over North Carolina……They’re also last in the ACC in pass efficiency D……RUH ROH……Feels like fav or pass……May come back to this bad boy.
Cincinnati -22.5 Tulsa (54.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -21
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 38.5 Tulsa 16
The Bearcats continue their long march towards a hopeful playoff berth but as we all know they’ll need to run the table and get some help…..Outside of a win over ND they’ve taken down a collection of TURDS….The good news is that Tulsa is a mess right now and the Bearcats are back at home where they’ve won 49-14, 42-7, 52-3, and 56-21…..Would be interested in a number lower than 20 but the offense has been a bit stale L2G.
Western Kentucky -14.5 MTSU (68.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -12
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 41.5 MTSU 27
MMC – Western Kentucky -12.4
STEEL SHARPENS STEEL, yo…..The Hilltoppers lost to some good teams in non-conference play and they’ve been dominating C-USA foes lately…..Three straight wins and they’re tied for first in the division…..The throw game is approaching LEGENDARY STATUS (#1 FBS, 34-6 TD to INT) and the D is getting enough stops….They’ve only allowed 20,19,13 L3G…..MTSU has won their L2G over a pair of tomato cans by a combined tally of 79-23 and are playing scrappy D (#22 FBS pass eff D)…..Also note that the Blue Raiders lead the FBS in turnover margin (+14, tied with Kent St)…..Check status of MTSU starting QB Cunningham…..That’s probably why we’re seeing the line slightly above 14…..WK would be happy to win SU and move on….FUN FACT….This rivalry is referred to as 100 MILES OF HATE…..As opposed to the Cal/Stanford rivalry referred to as 100 MILES OF COMMUNISM AND STOLEN ELECTIONS **.
** needs fact check
Louisiana -12.5 Georgia St (53.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -13
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 33 Georgia St 20.5
MMC – Louisiana -14.0
The Panthers pulled a win out of the fire vs Georgia Southern last week despite being outgained to the tune of 486-378 and now have FIVE in the win column….That’ll go a long way towards getting them to a bowl game but there’s still work to be done….They’re technically in a 3-way tie for first in the Sun Belt East but have lost to App St….still have Coastal on tap….New QB D Grainger has done well overall and the D has allowed just 21,16,14 L3G…..The Cajuns bounced back off a close shave vs Ark St and smoked Texas St last week 45-CACK….They’ve essentially locked up the West although technically the magic number is “1”….They’ve held two of their last three opponents to 211,205 yds of offense and one of those teams was App St……Gut says that Georgia St might be able to make this interesting but the numbers don’t back that up….Might try some SWEET IN-GAME ACTION and try and get a number better than 12.5.
Utah -7.5 Stanford (53.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Utah -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 33 Stanford 20.5
MMC – Utah -6.4
Utah essentially has the PAC 12 South LOCKED up with a one-game lead and tiebreaker over Arizona St…..and they have an easy schedule remaining….They’ve been playing really well with new starting QB C Rising with their only blemish coming to Oregon St on the road…..The offense has been cooking and they’ve scored 42,35,34,44 L4G……Stanford has lost three straight and hasn’t helped going (-7) in turnovers over that time horizon….QB Tanner McKee can spin it but he’s one of approximately 700 players listed on the injury report…..We almost always take a much-less-than-market interest in injuries but it’s hard to take Stanford without knowing who half the starters might be…..Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS at Stanford.
Iowa -12 Northwestern (40.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -12
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 26.25 Northwestern 14.25
Pretty easy game for us to throw in the trash bin…..This is the worst NW team we can recall in quite some time but they’re well-coached and Iowa’s season has gone from great to BARF really quickly…..The turnover situation has completely flipped on them and their offense is LAST in the Big Ten by a large margin from a yards-per-play perspective…..and they’re even worse than Clemson.
Coastal Carolina -19.5 Georgia Southern (60.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 40 Georgia Southern 20.5
Coastal hasn’t been that dominant to say the least the past two weeks losing the yardage battle by a wide margin to App St in a loss (L 30-27) and beating Troy by 7 at home….They are still alive in the division but need the Mountaineers to lose in November….unlikely but not impossible….They’re the most talented team in the league (in our view) and are 18-12-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2019 season vs FBS foes….GS played a strong game vs Georgia St last week and have a new HC in former USC boss Clay Helton……Line a bit high but the Eagles’ D is gonna struggle mightily vs the potent CHANTS attack.
Virginia Tech -3 Boston College (47) …….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -1
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 25 Boston College 22
MMC – Virginia Tech -0.8
At first glance it seemed like a good spot to take the home dog…..and it might be…..VT is 4-11 ATS L15 as ACC road favs and aren’t the most trustworthy team…..but the Eagles have lost four consecutive games whilst scoring just 13,7,14,6 in those contests…….BC has wins over four TOMATO CANS whilst VT has booked wins over a few half-decent teams including UNC and Georgia Tech….Slight perceived line value with the home squad…..argh.
ROLL TIDE -28.5 LSU (66.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -24.5
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 47.5 LSU 19
MMC – ROLL TIDE -24.8
Alabama is fresh off a bye and ready for the final four game regular season stretch….They’ve put up 500+ yards of offense in 4L5 games and have been very stout vs the run (#2 SEC run D)…..That’s bad news for LSU as they’ll be one-dimensional in this one and it’s hard to see them hanging around for very long if this bad boy turns into a fast-paced aerial shootout….The line looks a bit rich to us but the Tigers are missing a lot of doods and note that they rank 2nd last in the SEC in pass eff D….RUH ROH…..ROLL TIDE probably has a bad taste in their mouths knowing that the last time LSU came to town they left with a win……Expect LSU to play hard and they still have some elite athletes but the game should be well in hand in the 3Q…..Road team in the series has covered 5 straight…..Bama has covered 7 in a row as SEC HF of 15+. Argh.
Ohio St -14.5 Nebraska (66) …….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 40.25 Nebraska 25.75
MMC – Ohio St -12.5
Nebraska continues to bumble and stumble and have too many good players to have a record of 3-6….but here we are……We wait anxiously for the time when CORN holds an opponent to NEGATIVE YARDS and still manage to lose by double digits…..It WILL happen! There’s no way to lose that is TOO BRUTAL for them! ….Not sure what they have left to play for at this point and Ohio St has the ability to shred that good but not great D…..Ohio St is #1 in the Big Ten in passing (25-4 TD to INT) and are averaging an impossible 10.5 yards per pass…..They are the Big Ten MASTERS OF PENETRATION (#1 sacks, #1 TFL/game Big Ten) and do a great job of preventing negative plays….Hard to see CORN getting much going on offense…..They’ll need a few breaks and an epic day on 3rd downs to keep this one close.
Lean – Ohio St -14.5
Ole Miss -9.5 Liberty (67.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -10
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 38.5 Liberty 29
It’s the HUGH FREEZE BOWL as the former Ole Miss HC brings his JUGGERNAUT independent team to town….They aren’t the same killer as LY but still have one of the most dynamic QBs in the country and roll into Oxford off a 62-17 win over UMass…..We lean to the Rebels but they are just really beat up off a nasty 5-game stretch.
Penn St -10.5 Maryland (55.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 33 Maryland 22.5
Penn St gets a solid “A” in our books for the way they played last week at Ohio St…..They were in the game from start to finish and just fell short….That makes three losses in a row and this is an obvious sandwich spot with Michigan on deck….Maryland has a gross run D and Penn St should be able to work their relatively-feeble ground game for good yardage…..They put up 38 vs Indiana last week so might be able to hang around….Tough call.
North Carolina -2.5 Wake Forest (76.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -1
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 39.5 Wake Forest 37
Those KOOKY SHARPS are at it again….They can’t get enough of betting Clemson and Memphis and Arizona St every week and now the focus is turned to a UNC team that’s underachieved all year and have allowed 35,42,44 L3G….It wasn’t enough to HAMMER them vs Notre Dame last week!! SHARPS want more suffering!!!……Look, my MUTANT MODEL GUY with three arms and acne on 99% of his body says UNC will beat Notre Dame!! ……As far as this game goes…..The pressure is theoretically on the undefeated Demon Deacons but since this is technically a non-conference game it will have no implications from an ACC perspective…..and no….they are not going to the CFP so just stop……Wake has an excellent offense but crappy D…..and dare we say….the better HC….Tough call would want +3.5 to take either side……Gun to the head would roll with UNC.
Nevada -10 San Jose St (55) …….MEGALOCKS line – Nevada -10
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 32.5 San Jose St 22.5
The Pack are still very much in the hunt for a Mountain West title and just need to scrape by San Jose St before their yuuuuuuge game with San Diego St next week……They’re clearly the better team but they’re D leaves a bit to be desired and the Spartans are starting to come alive having won two straight games (UNLV, Wyoming)……Biggest worry for the dog has be their ability to STINK on the road this year….Feels like fav or pass.
Minnesota -15 Illinois (44) …….MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -14
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 29.5 Illinois 14.5
Don’t look now but the Gophers are on top of the Big Ten West but it should be noted that they still need to face Iowa and Wisconsin…..RBs are dropping like flies on that team but they keep grinding away and QB T Morgan is a legit quality vet…..Illinois can jump up and bite you on any occasion (see Penn St) but they appear to be outclassed in this spot.
Air Force -2.5 Army (37.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -3
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 20 Army 17.5
Last season’s Army 10-7 win over Air Force was a tough one to take for Air Force…..not to mention that it was a 17,000 STAR MEGALOCKS I HOPE YOU DIE IN A CROCODILE PIT LATE PHONE RELEASE loser…..Air Force is the better team in our books with a bit more explosiveness on offense and the Army D is down a notch and note that Army has lost three straight games….Both teams have potential injury issues at QB….AF depth isn’t as good…..Neutral site game….Gonna roll with AF for some small taters.
Lean – AF -2.5
SMU -5 Memphis (71) …….MEGALOCKS line – SMU -4
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 38 Memphis 33
The Mustangs battled hard vs Houston and tied the game late only to lose it on a last second KR TD (see boxscore and wagering review)……Contrary to what you are likely hearing….SMU still has a LOT to play for…..They have a Nov 20 date with Cincy and definitely have a puncher’s chance to pull an upset in that one….but first things first….They can’t afford to drop a 2nd AAC game….They have one of the best QBs in college football and the Memphis D is MEH….Also note that Memphis loves to turn the ball over (-11, tied for 2nd worst FBS) and the HC has already lied once about the health of his starting QB so you never know if some random scrub will be named the starter before kick.
UAB -13.5 Louisiana Tech (49.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – UAB -13
Vegas Implied Score – UAB 31.5 Louisiana Tech 18
The Blazers just aren’t the same CRUSHING and KILLING team of recent seasons and we long for the days when they were close to unbeatable at home…..Add a new stadium and GLUG GLUG GLUG…..you start losing to teams like Rice as 23-point favs….La Tech is pure trash BUT they have played surprisingly well on a few occasions vs teams better than UAB and HC Holtz is one of the best all-time in the role of road dog.
Houston -13 USF (53) …….MEGALOCKS line – Houston -11
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 33 USF 20
Houston is on a COLLISION COURSE WITH DESTINY and look poised to make an appearance in the AAC title game should they avoid a late season collapse……QB C Tune might have played his best game last week vs SMU and the Cougars escaped with a 44-37 win and remain undefeated in conference action…..They have a solid D to complement the offense and only need to avoid a major letdown this week….South Florida is playing much better football as of late but appear to be outmatched and still need to make signficant strides on defense…..Tough to lay 13 tho.
UTSA -11.5 UTEP (53.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 32 UTEP 21.5
Yes, guy…..It’s a prime time ESPN match-up with the undefeated MEEP MEEP heading to El Paso to battle the JUGGERNAUT Miners……Both teams are excellent FEEL GOOD stories and more importantly….they are both contenders for the C-USA West title…..UTSA has the upper hand without a doubt and they’ve played better games vs better competition on the whole….UTEP still controls their own destiny but would need to take down UTSA and UAB to have a shot at all the West marbles…..The Miners are a scrappy bunch that doesn’t beat themselves…..Will take a small stab on the home pup.
Lean – UTEP +11.5
UCF -13 Tulane (60) …….MEGALOCKS line – UCF -13
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 36.5 Tulane 23.5
Pretty easy game for us to avoid…..The number looks about right……UCF has won three of their last four games and have allowed 7 points in each of their L2G…..Tulane’s season is down the toilet but they do have some decent pieces on offense…Feels like fav or pass.
Michigan St -3 Purdue (54) …….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 28.5 Purdue 25.5
Yes, guy…….The Spartans and Wolverines treated us to a great game last week and when it was all over Michigan St was left standing….They were significantly outgained vs Michigan but found a way to fight back….They have a pair of excellent WRs but check the status of J Nailor (hand – Q)…..RB K Walker is a legit Heisman candidate (1,194, 14 TD) and Purdue will have their hands full on Saturday…The good news is that the Purdue D has been sneaky good (#5 Big Ten total D) and their THROW GAME can definitely move the ball on the Sparty secondary…..Star WR D Bell could have a yuuuuge game……Feels like a 4Q game that’s decided late one way or the other…..Recall that Purdue took down Iowa when they were at their peak…..Michigan St has won 8 straight in the series……argh……ah, we’ll pee into the wind for a small taste.
Lean – Purdue +3
update – official pick Purdue +3 -105 sent 4:45 EST Nov 5
Oklahoma St -3.5 West Virginia (49) …….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 26.25 West Virginia 22.75
The Mountaineers have lost six consecutive meetings with the Cowboys but are playing their best football of the year at the right time…..They’ve put up 487,492 yards of offense the last two weeks in wins over TCU and Iowa St (!)…..Oklahoma St has covered the number in six straight games and are getting a lot of respect in a place that’s hard to win…..The Pokes have the best unit on the field in a defense that allows just 295 YPG (#7 FBS)…..Would like road team at a number below 3 but that ain’t happening, yo.
Baylor -6.5 TCU (58) …….MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 32.25 TCU 25.75
It’s gonna be strange seeing the Horned Frogs take the field without legendary HC Gary Patterson….Ya, it was probably time to part ways, but he did an excellent job with the program over his 20+ seasons despite falling on hard times recently…..The defense has been a HOT MESS as they’re #8 in the Big 12 in run D (204 YPG) and #8 in pass eff D…..The pass rush has been pretty much non-existent…..The offense has some serious weapons but has been inconsistent and they’ll face the #3 total D in the Big 12 this week….Baylor has also been potent and balanced on offense….Hard to know how TCU will respond in game one SANS GARY but Baylor has a relatively yuuuuge edge on both sides of the ball…..TCU could potentially kill Baylor’s shot at a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win…..just really hard to trust that D….May come back to this bad boy.
Iowa St -7 Texas (60) …….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 33.5 Texas 26.5
The Longhorns season is going GLUG GLUG GLUG as they’ve dropped three consecutive Big 12 games and now face Iowa St ON THE HIGHWAY…..The CLONES can’t afford another loss if they wanna meet their goal of making the Big 12 title game…..They have the #1 total D in the conference and have outgained every opponent other than WV (last week)…..Texas’ D is tough to trust and they’ve been brutal in the 2nd half this year…particularly the 4Q…..Tough call at this number.
NC State -2.5 Florida St (55.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – NC State -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 29 Florida St 26.5
Our numbers tell us there is some value with the Pack in this one and they certainly have the motivation to GIT ER DONE…..A loss would put them TWO games back of Wake Forest in the loss column and make it very difficult to win the division…..They played really well on D last week despite playing without a small handful of key contributors and QB D Leary had a phenomenal game (317, 4-0)…..Florida St has been playing pretty well since the speedster (and improving passer) D Travis was installed at QB…..Another tough match-up for the Seminoles rushing attack and their D is a bit sketchy……It’d be a big deal for Florida St to cobble their way to a six-win season and this one is essentially a must win…..Wish we were getting a few more points to back the dog.
Wisconsin -13 Rutgers (38) …….MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -12
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 25.5 Rutgers 12.5
The Badgers are on a MISSION to find their way into the Big Ten Championship Game despite having a slow start to the year…..They’ve won four straight games and allowed 0,14,13,7 in those games….Rutgers has been decent on D but scored just 13,13,13,7,20 L5G…..Feels like the Badgers win this one comfortably.
Lean – Wisconsin -13
Troy -4 South Alabama (48) …….MEGALOCKS line – Troy -5
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 26 South Alabama 22
This is a very intriguing under-the-radar game as two pretty good FUN BELT foes go head-to-head in another edition of the BATTLE FOR THE BELT rivalry game…..The Jags have been a nice surprise this year (5-3) but need one more win to meet their goal of bowl eligibility…..They have a really tough schedule ahead and will need to bag this one if they wanna make the postseason (in all likelihood)….The D is #2 in the conference in total D (Troy #1) and QB J Bentley is a crafty vet…..Troy has been better on offense since G Watson took over at QB…..South Alabama is 0-3 ATS on the road this year…..Troy has an impossible 32 (!) sacks in 8G.
Colorado St -3.5 Wyoming (40.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 22 Wyoming 18.5
Who will walk away with the BRONZE BOOT?…..We’re not sure but we do know that there’s a good chance we see more than one human torn limb from limb in this heated rivalry game…..The Cowboys season is in FREE FALL mode having lost four straight…..The D has taken a step back and the run game has been a shell of it’s former self…..The Rams are clearly the better team but they’re hard to trust in close games (see Utah St DEBACLE).
Arkansas -5 Mississippi St (56) …….MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas -4
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas 30.5 Mississippi St 25.5
WOO PIG comes into this one fresh off a blowout win over Ark Pine-Bluff and a bye week and should be ready and willing to put forward a max effort….They’ve got an excellent ground game but Miss St is very stout vs the run…..Miss St has an elite THROW GAME but Arkansas is #2 (!) in the SEC in pass D and have an excellent 5-7 TD to INT mark…..The Bulldogs have a lot of trouble slinging the ball deeper than 20Y so they’ll need another efficient game from QB W Rogers who delivered BIGLY last week.
Lean – under 55.5
Marshall -1.5 FAU (57.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -1
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 29.5 FAU 28
Two of the top-three teams in the C-USA East go HEAD TO HEAD and it should be highly-entertaining…….We give a slight nod to the road team but FAU has won 12 (!) straight games at home and just might be able to get the ground game going vs a Marshall run D that’s been BRUTAL this year – dead last C-USA over 200 YPG allowed (!) (96 LY)……FAU 1-7 SU vs the Herd.
Fresno St -5 Boise St (60) …….MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 32.5 Boise St 27.5
These ain’t your MOMMA’S Boise St Broncos but they’re still a tough out as evidenced by their road wins this year over BYU and a tough Colorado St team…..In fact they’re 4-0 ATS away from the SMURF TURF…..The run game is still subpar and we worry about the pass D facing the great J Haener who’s been awesome this year (23-6 TD to INT, 67%)….Fresno is in good shape for a division title but need this one….Boise is essentially DEEEED from a MW perspective but can never be doubted as a road dog…..Expecting a packed house in Fresno…..The Bulldogs are +1.33 in yards per play differential and the Broncos are in a negative position (-0.54, 5.17, 5.71)….One subset of 10 basic stats that we look at shows Boise St ranked in the top-half of the MW in just ONE (passing offense)…..Fresno St? 8.
update – official play Fresno St -5 -106 sent 6:30pm Nov 5
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved at all.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.