TCU Horned Frogs 2021 College Football Preview
Created July 20, 2021
Record – 6-4
ATS – 6-3-1
The Horned Frogs got off to a slow start losing two of their first three games, but those losses came against the eventual Big 12 Championship Game contestants. They only lost one more contest the rest of the way and managed to score FITTTY in a pair of games near the end of the year (Kansas, Louisiana Tech). Their Texas Bowl date with Arkansas was cancelled. You can never be too safe.
TCU Horned Frogs 2021 Outlook
TCU did an excellent job on the ground LY (215 YPG, #1 Big 12) and they did it with a DEEP group of RBs and a very mobile QB in Max Duggan who led the team in rushing (526, 10 TD). FOUR players booked 200+ rushing yards at RB and three of those men are back in 2021. Zach Evans has the most upside of the group as he is a highly-recruited specimen that averaged 7.7 YPC LY. Duggan will need to do more in the THROW GAME (61%, 10-4 TD to INT) and he has an experienced group of targets including WR Quentin Johnson who averaged a whopping 22 YPC whilst leading the Horned Frogs in receiving yards. The front line features over 70 career starts and boasts an excellent center in Steve Avila. We project the Horned Frogs to post their best PPG mark since 2017 (33.6).
The Horned Frogs were solid vs the run once again (#3 Big 12, 128 YPG) but were just mid-pack in the conference in pass efficiency D despite allowing just 54% completions (18-8 TD to INT). They booked 27 sacks which placed them 4th in the Big 12 in sacks/game. There are a pair of yuuuge losses in the secondary as they lose their elite safety tandem that included Jim Thorpe Award winner (!) Trevon Moehrig. Thankfully, they are still solid on the back-end with 2nd Team AA CB Tre’vius Hodges-Tomlinson and the addition of veteran safety TJ Carter from Memphis. The DL should be one of the best in the Big 12 with the return of four starters including Ochaun Mathis (9 sacks LY). LB Dee Winters was #2 on the team in tackles LY and came up with 9.5 TFL. This stop unit looks improved and really good.
The unit returns intact including their DEADLY PR Derius Davis who had a PAIR of TDs LY. PK Griffin Kell 12-17 hit FGA LY (2-6 40+). P Jordy Sandy had a decent year in 2020.
Overall – The non-conference slate is manageable and includes games vs California and SMU. They start the season with four consecutive home games spanning five calendar weeks. They must face Oklahoma and Iowa St ON THE HIGHWAY, so that’s not ideal.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – SMU (September 25th)
The Mustangs can SCORE THE FOOTBALL and this game takes place just before Big 12 play begins (Texas).
Season Win Total
per 5Dimes July 20
Over 7.5 -105
Under 7.5 -115
This is a really good-looking team on both sides of the football. Eight or more wins feels likely as we approach press time.
TCU has won 11+ games in a season on TEN occasions under the watch of Gary Patterson.
The Horned Frogs have been mediocre over the past three seasons posting a combined record of 18-17. This looks like their best squad in a number of years and they’re definitely a potential SURPRISE PACKAGE in the Big 12. They’ll need to pull a road upset or two to get into the Big 12 Championship Game but it’s not unthinkable.
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