Tulane Green Wave 2021 College Football Preview

Tulane Green Wave 2021 College Football Preview

Created July 31, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 6-6

ATS – 7-4-1

The Wave struggled to get their SEA LEGS in the first half and only managed to win two of their first six games (South Alabama, Southern Miss). They won four of their final five regular season games including impressive triumphs over Army and Memphis. Tulane was outgunned in the bowl game by Nevada (L 38-27) and finished right at the .500 mark.


Tulane Green Wave 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Green Wave rushed for over 200 YPG (217, #1 AAC) for the 5th consecutive season and averaged an impressive 34.7 PPG (#4). The THROW GAME was much better when QB Michael Pratt took over and note that he threw two or more TD passes in EACH of his last seven games. Pratt returns along with all the major targets including the WR combo of Duece Watts and Jha’Quan Jackson (combined 14 TD). Two of their top-four rushers depart but these guys can always GIT ER DONE on the ground. #2 RB Cameron Carroll booked 12 rushing scores LY (6.1) and Tyjae Spears averaged 7.4 YPC. The OL returns essentially intact and they have a pair of all-AAC performers in center Sincere Haynesworth and guard Corey Dublin. Pass protection needs to improve as they allowed 35 sacks LY (2nd last AAC sacks allowed per game). Look for them to book 30+ PPG once again despite the loss of OC Will Hall.

DEFENSE

Tulane was pretty solid vs the run LY (#2 AAC) but had all kinds of problems defending the pass (#101 FBS pass efficiency D). This was despite having an elite pass rush (37 sacks, #15 FBS sacks per game). The Green Wave take a major hit in the PENETRATION department with the departure of a PAIR (!) of NFL draft picks in Patrick Johnson and Cameron Sample (16 sacks combined LY). Adding DE Joseph Dorceus from Memphis should help. The Wave’s top-three tacklers return including Dorian Williams (16.5 TFL) who’s one of the most ACTIVE linebackers in the AAC. We’re still worried about the back end of the defense after allowing 27 TD passes in 2020 (most AAC) and 279 YPG.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Continuity, yo. They return starters across the board. Hopefully they get more consistency from PK Merek Glover who was just 9/15 on FGA LY. Ryan Wright is one of the better punters in the conference.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The non-conference docket is fairly nasty as they take on the Sooners (!) and Ole Miss, not to mention sneaky-good UAB. They draw Cincinnati and UCF in SWEET AAC ACTION. Fun fact: They won’t have to deal with back-to-back road games.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – UAB (September 25th)

This comes after the game with Ole Miss and before conference play starts. UAB is tougher than a $3 steak.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes July 31

Over 5 -150

Under 5 +130

Update August 19

Over 5.5 -105

Under 5.5 -115

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over.

These guys look good enough to make a bowl game. The schedule is a bit spicy tho.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

HC Willie Fritz has taken the Wave to three consecutive bowl games. That’s never happened before in program history.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

This is gonna be a fun team to watch once again. The offense is loaded and the defense will give up enough points to keep things interesting. They don’t appear good enough to make it to the AAC Championship but we’ll call for six wins and a fourth straight bowl game. ROLL WAVE!


Want more Tulane football ?

WEBSITE

https://tulanegreenwave.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://www.yogwf.com/viewforum.php?f=2&sid=efa00718d50b5eb39418c055015b0d4b

NEWS

https://www.nola.com/sports/tulane/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2655/tulane-green-wave

TWITTER

Hashtag – #RollWave

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/GreenWaveFB

SMU Mustangs 2021 College Football Preview

SMU Mustangs 2021 College Football Preview

Created July 31, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 7-3

ATS – 5-5

The Mustangs stormed out of the gate and won their first five contests which included a pair of squeakers vs solid Memphis and Tulane squads. They got their heads caved in by Cincinnati in game number six (L 42-13) and lost their final two games of the campaign (Tulsa, East Carolina). Lets see how things shape up heading into 2021.


SMU Mustangs 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

It’s not gonna be easy to replace veteran starting QB Shane Buechele who booked an excellent 57-16 TD to INT ratio with the Mustangs in his two years as the starter. First call will go to highly-regarded Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai and he’ll have the best WR unit in the AAC to call his own. Rashee Rice, Danny Gray, and Reggie Roberson are a formidable trio and they’re complemented by another Oklahoma transfer in TE Grant Calcaterra (9 TD LY). The top-three RBs return including #1 Ulysses Bentley who rushed for over 900Y and 11 TD LY whilst caching 21 balls out of the backfield in his spare time. Center Hayden Howerton and guard Jaylon Thomas lead a talented and experienced offensive line that returns over 140 career starts. This offense has every right to be lethal (#12 FBS total offense LY).

DEFENSE

The Mustangs allowed 30.9 PPG LY (#6 AAC) and have improved three straight years in that regard since allowing 36.7 PPG in 2017. Nine starters return for battle and they get a yuuuuge upgrade at DC in MEGALOCKS fav Jim Leavitt who’ll get these guys moved into a 3-4 alignment. They have a number of interesting options at DE and Elijah Chatman is excellent inside (7.5 TFL LY). Three starters are back at LB including #1 tackler (3 sacks) Delano Robinson, and they also return a trio of starters on the back end whilst adding Florida transfer CB Jahari Rogers. We fully expect improvement on defense and they could be really good if they can find an elite pass rusher.

SPECIAL TEAMS

PR Tyler Page is gone (15.2 avg LY) and they’ll need to find replacements for P AND PK Chris Naggar. The good news is that excellent PK Blake Mazza comes over from Washington St (20/21 FG 2019, 4/4 LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – They should get off to a 3-0 start before facing TCU on the road. The AAC road docket is pretty nasty (Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Louisiana Tech (September 18th)

This could be a lookahead spot given that the date with in-state Power 5 opponent TCU is on deck.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes July 31

Over 6.5 +105

Under 6.5 +125

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over.

They should be able to hit AAC play with a mark of 3-1. Can they win four conference games? They have a tough draw to be sure but our best guess is that they GIT ER DONE.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

SMU has lost five consecutive games vs UCF with the last win coming back in 2011. They face the Knights in Dallas on November 13th and that game could have yuuuuge implications.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

The Mustangs look like a 2nd tier threat in the AAC simply due to their schedule. The offense will be fantastic presuming that QB Tanner Mordecai has the GAME that we expect and the defense has significant upside potential. Legit AAC SURPRISE PACKAGE with a shot to take it all down.


Want more SMU football ?

WEBSITE

https://smumustangs.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://www.ponyfans.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=1

https://247sports.com/college/smu/Board/SMU-Fan-Football-Recruiting-Message-Board-Forum–105959/

https://smu.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-boulevard.10/

NEWS

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/smu-mustangs

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2567/smu-mustangs

TWITTER

Hashtag – #PonyUpDallas

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/SMU_Football

Navy Midshipmen 2021 College Football Preview

Navy Midshipmen 2021 College Football Preview

Created August 1, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 3-7

ATS – 4-6

Dive! Dive! Dive! Glug….glug…..glug.

Things didn’t look too bad after the first five games when the MIDDIES opened with three wins. They were BLOWN TO BITS in the other two contests losing by a combined mark of 95-10 to BYU and Air Force, but there was still hope. Things then fell apart BIGGGLY and they lost their final five games in a row to end the 2020 casedemic season with a thud.


Navy Midshipmen 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Navy rushing attack was a shell of its former self LY as they averaged a piddly 178 YPG on the ground after averaging 325 YPG (!) over the previous five campaigns. It’s imperative to get rushing production out of the QB position and it’s still a complete unknown in terms of what Navy has at the QB position. Think about what ARMY has at QB and you start to realize what trouble they could be in, yo. Xavier Arline rushed for 169Y in their final 2G LY so probably has the upper hand heading into fall camp. The RB room needs to be reloaded due to the departure of their top-two (Smith, Carothers) who combined for over 1,000Y and 10 TD in 2020. The THROW GAME is an afterthought but note that WRs Mychal Cooper and Mark Walker were both productive LY. The OL looks inexperienced, even by Navy standards. It’s hard to get too excited thinking about this offense, particularly when you remember that they scored just 13 combined points in their final 3G LY.

DEFENSE

The offense didn’t stay on the field as per usual and the defense suffered. They allowed 30 PPG and a whopping 205 YPG on the ground (#100 FBS). They booked just six sacks in 10G. We expect improvement on this side of the football given the return of the top-9 tacklers including star LB Diego Fagot (3 sacks, 11 TFL, 100 tackles in 2019). Also note that they played much better down the stretch LY and held Memphis to 10, Tulsa to 19, and Army to 15. The LB group is the strength of the D and Fagot is supported by two solid players in Tama Tuitele and John Marshall. They’ll probably still struggle vs the pass when you consider that they play in a conference with several excellent passers.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Navy has finished #100 or worse in Phil Steele’s special teams rating in each of the last four seasons and this could be #5. The kicking game was mediocre LY and they always struggle to find SPICE at KR and PR.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – RUH ROH. They have a nasty out-of-conference games (Marshall, Air Force, Irish, Army) and draw both UCF and Cincinnati in AAC play.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky is noted.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes August 1

Over 3.5 -120

Under 3.5 +100

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Under.

Yikes. It’s hard to find more than a small handful of potential wins. We’ll shop around and try and find a “4”.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Navy has an impressive 41-13 record at home the L10Y despite having three losing seasons over that time horizon.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

After an excellent run of six consecutive winning seasons the Midshipmen have had a pair of STINKERS (3-10, 3-7) within the last three years. They need excellent play from the QB position and just haven’t gotten it recently. The schedule is NASTY and it’s hard to see them gaining bowl eligibility. Then again, they have surprised us before!


Want more Navy football?

WEBSITE

https://navysports.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/navy/Board/GoMidshipmen-103672/

http://academywars.com/awforums/viewforum.php?f=7

NEWS

http://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/navy_sports/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2426/navy-midshipmen

TWITTER

Hashtag – #NavyFB

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/NavyFB

https://twitter.com/BWagner_CapGaz

Memphis Tigers 2021 College Football Preview

Memphis Tigers 2021 College Football Preview

Created July 30, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 8-3

ATS – 4-7

All things considered, it was another successful season for the Tigers as they found a way to SCRATCH and CLAW (pun not intended **) their way to an eight-win campaign that included a Montgomery Bowl win over Florida Atlantic (W 25-10). They were NAILS for the most part in close games and took down UCF, USF, Navy, and Houston by a combined eight points (!).

Can they get back to the AAC Championship Game? Let’s dig in.

** fact check false


Memphis Tigers 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

It’s gonna be strange watching the Tigers without star QB (and all-MEGALOCKS team member) Brady White who played his final season in Memphis during last year’s scamdemic season (61%, 31-10 TD to INT). It appears to be Arizona transfer Grant Gunnell’s job to lose as we approach press time and he did well with the horrible Wildcats LY all things considered (69%, 6-2 TD to INT). The weapons are definitely there in the THROW GAME with the return of 1st AAC WR Calvin Austin (six 100-yard games LY, 1,053, 11 TD) and star TE Sean Dykes (47-581 12.4, 7 TD). The run game tanked LY (4.0 YPC, 4.7 and 6.4 previous 2Y) and the top-four return to try and make a better go of it. Three starters return up front but they lose their starting C and LT. We love the additions via the transfer portal and think they’ll be better in the run blocking department. They won’t average 40 PPG like they did from 2017-2019 but they still have one of the better offenses in the AAC.

DEFENSE

The Tigers return EIGHT starters and their top-EIGHT tacklers to a stop unit that was pretty good vs the run LY (145 YPG, #4 AAC). The bad news? They were a TIRE FIRE when it came to defending the pass and allowed 289 YPG, but they did somehow finish #3 in the conference in pass efficiency D (24-12 TD to INT, 63%, 7.4). Stud pass rusher Joseph Dorceus needs to be replaced (Tulane) but they have decent size inside and return DE Morris Joseph who booked 7 sacks LY. The LB group is a bit undersized but they RUN TO THE BALL and have a lot of experience. LB JJ Russell was 2nd on the team in tackles in 2020 (3.5 TFL). The secondary has potential to improve with the return of safety Quindell Johnson (#1 tackles, 2nd team AAC) and the addition of highly-touted Michigan St recruit CB Julian Barnett.

SPECIAL TEAMS

There’s concern in this area for the first time in a while. They must break in a new PK and a new punter. PR Calvin Austin booked a TD return LY. It doesn’t help to lose ST coach Pete Lembo (South Carolina).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – They should be able to bag three non-conference wins and it helps to miss Cincinnati in AAC play. The Tigers have just one road game in November.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UCF (October 22nd)

This will be their 3rd road game in four weeks and REVENGE is a DISH BEST SERVED COLD. Memphis pulled one out of the hat LY and won a 50-49 barn-burner in Memphis.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes July 30

Over 8 +110

Under 8 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Under.

They’d do well to win nine games with that schedule. 123 of our 159 sets of power ratings have them finishing with eight or fewer wins.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Tigers have posted 8+ wins in seven (!) consecutive seasons dating back to 2014. Hmm.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Memphis is another one of those 2nd tier teams (on paper) behind Cincinnati (and UCF?) that could find their way into the AAC title game if things break their way. The look good (not great) on both sides of the football but we can’t help but wonder if they’re REALLY gonna miss our boy QB Brady White. Our best guess is 7-8 wins and a mid-tier bowl. Go Tigers!


Want more Memphis football ?

WEBSITE

https://gotigersgo.com/sports/football

FORUM

Free

http://csnbbs.com/forum-499.html

https://memphis.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-tigers-lair.6/

NEWS

http://www.commercialappeal.com/sports/tigers/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/235/memphis-tigers

TWITTER

Hashtag – #GoTigersGo

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/MemphisFB

East Carolina Pirates 2021 College Football Preview

East Carolina Pirates 2021 College Football Preview

Created August 15, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 3-6

ATS – 5-4

East Carolina got off to a slow start losing six of their first seven games and they allowed a HUNDO in their first two contests (UCF, Georgia St). They could have cried and taken the ball and gone home but they kept on fighting. The Pirates took down Temple (28-3) and SHOCKED the WORLD in the finale by hammering SMU (W 52-38). They head into 2021 with a bit of momentum and an experienced roster. Let’s go!


East Carolina Pirates 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Pirates made strides on offense LY and averaged 30 PPG for the first time since 2014 (!). They were pretty balanced (174Y rush, 229 pass) and bring back the vast majority of their key parts. QB Holton Ahlers is a mobile veteran with 51 TD passes to his credit and he gets back two of his three top targets. WR Tyler Snead caught 53 balls LY and WR C.J. Johnson averaged 21.3 YPC. The 1-2 combo at RB is solid and note that Rahjai Harris and Keaton Mitchell combined for over 1,000Y and 6 TD whilst averaging just under 5 yards a pop in 2020. There’s a decent amount of size and experience up front and they should be able to support a well-balanced attack. It’s feels like a decent bet to expect 30+ PPG once again in 2021.

DEFENSE

It’s been a while since East Carolina has shown any backbone on defense as they’ve allowed well over 30 PPG every year since 2015. The Pirates ranked #98 in the FBS in run defense LY and #80 in pass efficiency D. Improvement should be expected this year given the return of 10 starters and the vast majority of their top-20 tacklers from a season ago. Three starters are back up front but they appear to be significantly undersized and will have to rely on disruption and PENETRATION. No returning DL had more than one sack LY. The LB group looks good and features the team’s top-two tacklers (Xavier Smith, Jireh Wilson) who combined for over 140 tackles and 14.5 TFL in 2020. The secondary has some nice pieces including CB JaQuan McMillian (EC #6 pass eff D AAC LY, 17-10 TD to INT).

SPECIAL TEAMS

It’s good to see talented PR/KR Tyler Snead back in the mix but they’ll need to find a replacement for long-time PK Jake Verity.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – They start off with a trio of tough out-of-conference games (App St, South Carolina, Marshall) but at least they get four of their first five games at home. The AAC road docket is tough (UCF, Houston, Memphis) and they finish the regular season vs the Bearcats in Greenville.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Marshall (September 18th)

This game follows what should be an emotional effort vs South Carolina and the Herd are mighty tough at home.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes August 15

Over 5.5 +115

Under 5.5 -135

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Under.

They’ll do well to get to bowl eligibility with that nasty schedule.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

East Carolina WR Zay Jones holds the NCAA record for most receptions in a single season thanks to his 158-catch (!) season in 2016. 158. That’s a FACT CHECK TRUE.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

The Pirates are slowly but surely getting better. The question becomes, can they improve enough this season to be a factor in the tough AAC? They’ll be able to SCORE THE FOOTBALL on most teams but the defense still looks sketchy. We’ll call for a four-five win season and at least one decent-sized upset along the way. In any event, Go Pirates!!


Want more East Carolina football ?

WEBSITE

https://ecupirates.com/index.aspx?path=football

FORUM

http://chat.eastcarolina.sportswar.com/message_board/ecubanter/

http://eastcarolina.247sports.com/Board/East-Carolina-Pirates-Message-Board-Forum-59438

https://eastcarolina.forums.rivals.com/forums/pillage-n-plunder.8/

NEWS

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/aac/east-carolina-university/

http://www.reflector.com/ECU

http://bonesville.net/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/151/east-carolina-pirates

TWITTER

Hashtags – #PirateNation

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/ECUPiratesFB

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2021 College Football Preview

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2021 College Football Preview

Created July 30, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 6-3

ATS – 6-2-1

Yes, guy.

The Golden Hurricane had a hell of a run in the shortened casedemic season and came really close to SHOCKING the WORLD. After fighting hard with Oklahoma St in a 16-7 opening week loss they proceeded to rattle off six straight wins and qualify for the conference title game. They gave the powerful Bearcats all they could handle but fell in a close one (L 27-24). Mississippi St took them down in the Armed Forces Bowl and they finished up with a good mark of 6-3.


Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

The offense produced more often than not in big moments but still had a fairly medicore season overall. They averaged 27.1 PPG (#8 AAC) and turned the ball over way too often (18, 3rd worst AAC). They’ll need to replace crafty, yet error prone QB Zach Smith (13-10 TD to INT) and it’ll be up to one of last year’s backups (Davis Brin, Seth Boomer) to lead the way. Our DEEP AAC INSIDERS feel that it’s Brin’s job to lose but we’ll see how things going during fall camp. We like the 1-2 punch at RB as Deneric Prince averaged 5.4 YPC LY and recall that Shamari Brooks rushed for over 1,000Y (!) in 2019. All the key components return to a WR room that’s one of the best in the conference. The Stokes/Santana/Johnson trio booked well over 1600Y receiving in 2020 and accounted for 13 TDs. The talented and YUUUGE offensive line returns intact but note that Tulsa allowed 21 sacks LY (#8 AAC, sacks allowed per game). More mobility at QB should help.

DEFENSE

The Golden Hurricane played strong D in 2020 (#43 FBS run D, #19 pass efficiency D) but have a massive hole to fill with the departure of ALL-UNIVERSE LB Zavan Collins who was taken in the first round of the NFL draft (11.5 TFL, 4 INT). They should be fine up front with the return of DT Jaxon Player (1st Team AAC, 9.5 TFL) and the impossibly-large NG Tyarise Stevenson (6-3, 350), and the LB group led by #2 tackler Justin Wright looks good on paper. The secondary could be a problem area given the departure of their fine CB duo, particularly if they can’t find a way to cobble together a decent pass rush (23, 14, 14, 12 sacks L4Y).

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK Zack Long is one of the best in the AAC (12/15 FG LY) and P Lachlan Wilson returns as well (42.9, 36.6 net). Tulsa was pretty rotten on PR (#124 FBS) and KR (#117) in 2020.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – RUH ROH. There are a pair of brutal non-conference tilts (Oklahoma St, Ohio St) but they get a stretch of four home games in five that should help. They go ON THE HIGHWAY to tackle Cincinnati and SMU in November.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Arkansas St (September 25th)

This game follows the two nightmare games noted above and comes just before AAC action begins. Houston on deck, yo.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes July 30

Over 6.5 +100

Under 6.5 -120

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

This has the look of a 6-7 win team.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

HC Philip Montgomery is just 11-24 (.314) in true road games.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

The Golden Hurricane showed a lot of SPUNK last year but have several factors pointing against them. New starting QB. Schedule. Loss of an elite defensive player. They also pulled a small handful of games out of the fire last year and won’t sneak under the radar in 2021. We’ll call for a minor bowl appearance and give them a shot to pull at least one big upset.


Want more Tulsa football ?

WEBSITE

https://tulsahurricane.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://tulsa.forums.rivals.com/forums/tu-football.8/

NEWS

https://www.tulsaworld.com/sports/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/202/tulsa-golden-hurricane

TWITTER

Hashtag – #ReignCane, #HuntForTheCrown

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/TulsaFootball

https://twitter.com/KellyHinesTW

Houston Cougars 2021 College Football Preview

Houston Cougars 2021 College Football Preview

Created August 1, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 3-5

ATS – 3-5

There weren’t too many teams impacted more by the scamdemic season than the Houston Cougars. They still managed to win three conference games, and note that they lost to some really good teams including BYU, UCF, and Cincinnati. The COOGS ended the regular season with a mark of 3-4 and then fell to Hawaii in the New Mexico whilst playing without several key players (L 28-14). Let’s see how things are shaping up heading into 2021.


Houston Cougars 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Cougars look pretty good on this side of the football. QB Clayton Tune was inconsistent LY (60%, 15-10 TD to INT) but he’s a good leader with annoying mobility (253, 5 TD). Two of the top-three WRs depart but Houston made some nice additions via the transfer portal including Jaylen Erwin (UCLA) and KeSean Carter (Texas Tech). The depth looks good, but we’re just not sure if they have a legit #1. Time will tell. It appears to be a committee approach at RB as there’s also no clear #1 option. Keep your eye on Texas Tech transfer RB Ta’Zawn Henry. The OL looks rock solid with the return of over 100 career starts. The offense doesn’t look elite on paper but we think they’ll exceed LY’s output of 30.0 PPG by a decent margin.

DEFENSE

Houston has allowed more than 30 PPG in three consecutive campaigns and they’ll need to SACK UP in 2021 if they have any hope of competing in the tough AAC. They bring back nine starters but lose leading tackler LB Grant Stuard to the NFL (Bucs), as well as leading sack man DE Payton Turner (5 sk LY). They’re experienced but a bit undersized up front, and hopefully Iowa St transfer DT Latrell Bankston can make an impact (6’0 300). Despite allowing an unseemly 16-3 TD to INT ratio we have good feelings about a secondary that returns a bunch of legit players including CBs Damarion Williams (7 PD LY, 2 INT 2019) and Marcus Jones (18 career PBU, 5 INT).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Yes, guy.

The kicking game is in excellent shape with the return of PK Dalton Witherspoon (8/10 FG LY) and punter Laine Wilkins (40.2 net). They’ll miss KR Marquez Stevenson but PR Marcus Jones is one of the best in the game (17-337, 19.8, TD LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s tasty, yo. The non-conference slate is very manageable and they miss UCF AND Cincinnati. They only have one road game in November.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous noted.

Season Win Total

Per 5Dimes August 1

Over 8 -125

Under 8 +105

updated August 15

Over 8.5 -110

Under 8.5 -110

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

Will try and shop around for a 7.5 to play ‘over’ but that is gonna be a tough assignment. Update – MOB STEEEEM coming in on the ‘over’. Dream of a ‘7.5’ is dead.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

It wasn’t too long ago that your pal Tom Herman led the Houston Cougars to a 13-1 record and AAC Championship. That 2015 squad’s only loss? Connecticut. Trivia nugget, yo.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Here we go.

This feels like the first chance the Cougars have to SHOW THEIR CARDS under HC Dana Holgorsen. They’re set at QB and they just need a few stars to emerge at RB and WR to really get things rolling. The defense is a bit of a concern but has some upside. And the schedule? VERY favorable. We give them a PUNCHER’S CHANCE to make some noise and get into the AAC Championship Game.


Want more Houston Cougars football ?

WEBSITE

https://uhcougars.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://www.coogfans.com/c/football

https://houston.forums.rivals.com/forums/cullen-boulevard.10/

NEWS

https://www.chron.com/sports/cougars/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/248/houston-cougars

TWITTER

Hashtag – #GoCoogs

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/UHCougarFB          

https://twitter.com/Joseph_Duarte

Temple Owls 2021 College Football Preview

Temple Owls 2021 College Football Preview

Created August 15, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 1-6

ATS – 2-5

The Owls were pretty competitive in their first three games and booked a win over South Florida. That’s good. The bad? They lost their final four contests by a combined score of 151-42, and that included getting SMOKED by something called East Carolina (L 28-3) in the season finale. More bad? That meant they finished with a record of 1-6 and have no momentum, whatever that’s worth, heading into 2021.


Temple Owls 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Owls managed a mere 19.9 PPG LY (#112 FBS) and they main culprit was an oft-inured QB group that struggled all year (team 11-11 TD to INT). The Owls bagged highly-regarded Georgia recruit D’Wan Mathis via the transfer portal and he’s the most likely starter heading into 2021. Four of the top-five targets in the THROW GAME are back and hopefully the Owls will find a way to stretch the field. Those aforementioned four doods averaged just 9.3, 11.9, 13.4 and 10.2 YPC. Don’t forget that WR Jadan Blue had a yuuuge 2019 (95-1,1067, 4 TD). #1 RB Re’Mahn Davis has FLOWN THE COOP but #2 Tayvon Ruley returns and he’ll be joined by P5 transfers from Florida (Iverson Clement) and Ra’Von Bonner (Illinois). Four starters return up front (80+ career starts) and the Owls allowed just 12 sacks LY (#1 AAC sacks allowed per game). <Update: Iverson Clement not with team. Not injury related. Aug 18>

DEFENSE

It was a small sample size of 7G, but the Owls were torched for 37 PPG (2nd last AAC) and 433 YPG (#7). Six starters return on defense but they’ll be a complete overhaul of the starting group up front. Losing top sack man Arnold Ebiketie to Penn St was a kick in the JACOBS, and the hope is that they can cobble together a decent DL using a lot of players acquired via the transfer portal. Not impossible. The LB and DB units are pretty experienced and they return #1 tackler LB William Kwenkeu and talented safety Amir Tyler. The stop unit doesn’t look great on paper BUT there’s definitely upside given all the talent imported from the transfer portal. Stay tuned.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Things could be worse. PK Rory Bell made 5/5 FGA LY and P Adam Barry averaged 44.0 (37.8 net). They need better production at KR and PR.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It seems impossible, but there are four winnable out-of-conference games (Rutgers, Akron, BC, Wagner). They draw Cincinnati (A) and UCF (H).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky is noted.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes August 15

Over 3 -120

Under 3 +100

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over.

They should enter AAC play with at least two wins. We’ll bite for a small taste, yo.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Temple is just five years removed from an AAC Championship. They took down Navy to win all the conference marbles in 2016 by a score of 34-10.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

There’s a bit of intrigue with this bunch given the boatload of players added via the transfer portal. They’ve likely found their QB of the future in that group, as well as a starting RB (?) and several starters on defense. We won’t expect much this year but it’s not impossible to think they could find a way to cobble together 4-6 wins and TEASE the possibility of a bowl appearance.


Want more Temple football ?

WEBSITE

https://owlsports.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/temple/Board/Temple-Owls-Message-Board-104514/

http://temple.247sports.com/Board/Temple-Owls-Message-Board-Forum-59459

https://temple.forums.rivals.com/forums/temple-football.10/

NEWS

http://temple-news.com/category/sports/football/

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/colleges/temple/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/218/temple-owls

TWITTER

Hashtags – #TempleTUFF

https://twitter.com/Temple_FB

South Florida Bulls 2021 College Football Preview

USF Bulls 2021 College Football Preview

Created August 15, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 1-8

ATS – 4-4-1

Yuck.

The Bulls took down The Citadel in their opener (W 27-6) and then things took a nasty turn to TURD TOWN as they lost their final eight games in a row. The good news? There were a pair of close calls (Temple, Memphis) and they gave UCF a game at the end of the year (L 58-46), so we suppose there’s hope for 2021.


USF Bulls 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

The offense struggled as expected LY and the Bulls ranked #90 in the FBS in total offense (365 YPG) and #101 in scoring output (#101). Former QB Jordan McCloud had his moments in 2020 (62%, 9-2 TD to INT) but it’ll be up to someone new to lead the way in 2021. Cade Fortin threw just 8 passes LY but has some nice upside (formerly UNC) and they added Jarren Williams from YOUR Miami Hurricanes. Four of the top-five targets are back and add a few P5 transfers to the WR group. It’s still unclear if they have a true #1 option in the mix. The RB room is pretty deep with talent and it includes the top-two producers from LY in Kelley Joiner (368, TD) and Brian Battie (7.2 YPC). The OL returns all five starters but they’ll need to do a better job in pass protection as they allowed 30 sacks in 2020 (last AAC sacks allowed/game).

DEFENSE

It wasn’t a surprise that the Bulls struggled LY on defense and they yielded 39.9 PPG (last AAC) and 441 YPG (#9 AAC). There were also issues with PENETRATION as they only tallied 7 sacks in 9G. The success of the defense will be largely dependent on the continued strong performance of the fine LB duo of Antonio Grier and Dwayne Boyles. Those two men led the team in tackles LY and combined for 10.5 TFL. They could use some size and pass rushing ability up front. We’re also concerned about the secondary BUT it’s important to note that THE CALVARY may have arrived via the transfer portal. They added a lot of capable bodies on the back end but we’ll have to see how all the new pieces fuse together.

SPECIAL TEAMS

It was a HORROR SHOW a season ago and it’s not clear if we can expect better in 2021. Spencer Shrader made 4/6 FG and they’ll need to find a new punter. The PR and KR doods were mediocre LY.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s really tough to find potential wins in here. Florida A&M should be a 900 STAR COVID CASE FRAUD BUSTER LOCK. East Carolina? Maybe. After that?  <crickets>

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at BYU (September 25th)

They get to face a bunch of 28 yr olds (just kidding. not really.) in a tough venue and this game precedes the start of conference play.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes August 15

Over 3.5 +100

Under 3.5 -120

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Under.

We don’t see a ton of upside with this team. 458 of our 501 sets of power ratings have them winning three games or less.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

The Bulls are a medicore 31-33 at home over the L10Y.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

It looks like another long season ahead in Tampa. Jeff Scott is probably a fine hire as HC but this roster needs a lot of upgrades. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors so they’ll need to earn every win they’re able to cobble together. We’ll call for 2-3 wins and a much better showing in 2022.


Want more South Florida football ?

WEBSITE

https://gousfbulls.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/south-florida/Board/South-Florida-Bulls-Message-Board-Forum-59416

https://usf.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-bullpen.8/

https://247sports.com/college/south-florida/Board/South-Florida-Bulls-Message-Board-Forum-59416

NEWS

http://www.thedailystampede.com/

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bulls/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/58/south-florida-bulls

TWITTER

Hashtag – #US2F, #HornsUp

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/USFFootball

Cincinnati Bearcats 2021 College Football Preview

Cincinnati Bearcats 2021 College Football Preview

Created July 30, 2021

2020 Recap

Record – 9-1

ATS – 6-3-1

Yes, guy.

That was a mighty impressive performance from the Bearcats as they rolled through the regular season with a perfect mark of 9-0. They squeaked by a scrappy Tulsa squad in the AAC Championship Game (W 27-24) and earned a Peach Bowl date with Georgia. The Bulldogs prevailed, but Cincinnati proved that they could play with one of the premier programs in the country. What can they do for an encore?


Cincinnati Bearcats 2021 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Bearcats used a balanced offense behind their fine QB Desmond Ridder LY (#22 rush, #25 pass efficiency) on their roll to a conference title. Ridder can beat you with his arm (19-6 TD to INT) and his legs (592, 12 TD LY). The Cats lose #1 RB Gerrid Doaks but they’ll go with a committee approach and note that projected #1 Jerome Ford averaged 6.6 YPC LY (8 TD). Ridder distributed the ball well in the THROW GAME in 2020 (10 players 10+ grabs) and expect more of the same in 2021. TE Josh Wyhle is one of the best in the AAC at his position and he led the team in receiving yards LY (6 TD). The OL performed admirably LY as they allowed just 19 sacks (#3 AAC sacks allowed per game) and Cincinnati led the conference in rushing YPC (5.57) (!). They’re less experienced up front and will miss LT James Hudson (NFL). They won’t average 37.5 PPG this year but this is still one of the better offenses in the AAC (balance, QB, toughness).

DEFENSE

Cincinnati has been a ROCK on defense over the past three seasons (#1, #3, #1 AAC total defense) and this year’s stop unit looks like another killer. Losing ace DC Marcus Freeman to Notre Dame was a kick in the JACOBS but new DC Mike Tressel has some excellent players to work with in 2021. A pair of starters return on the DL including leading sacker DE Myjai Sanders (7) and recall that the Bearcats tallied 30 sacks LY (#2 AAC sacks per game). It hurts to lose #1 tackler Jarell White at LB but Darrian Beavers was #2 (7.5 TFL) and this group looks like the best in the AAC. They have one of the best CB combos in the FBS (Ahmad Gardner, Coby Bryant) but need to replace their pair of outstanding safeties.

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK Cole Smith doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence (4-7 FG from 30+) and they need to find a replacement for their excellent P James Smith. KR Tre Tucker averaged 30 yards a pop LY (TD).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The road game at Notre Dame is almost certainly a “must-win” if they plan on making a run for a playoff berth. They get their three toughest AAC games at home (UCF, Tulsa, SMU) so that certainly helps. There’s no Memphis or Houston on the docket.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at USF (November 12th)

Doesn’t appear to be a great spot from a betting standpoint as it falls between two yuuuuge games (Tulsa, SMU). It’ll also be their 3rd road game in four weeks.

Season Win Total

per 5Dimes July 30

Over 10 +110

Under 10 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Under.

Not enough margin for error in our view if you take the ‘over’. They have games at Indiana and Notre Dame before AAC play kicks off. Would shop for a 9.5 if you are bullish.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Nippert Stadium is the fourth-oldest playing site and fifth-oldest stadium in the FBS. Lights were first used in 1909 because most of the students could only practice at night. They beat something called Kentucky-Wesleyan (17-CACK) in 1923 in what was the first night collegiate football game in the Midwest.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

This squad looks LOADED once again, but how will they react as THE HUNTED? The draw of AAC games is very beneficial and they have a star QB and an elite D. They’ll need to run the table to make the playoff but it seems extremely likely we see these guys in the AAC Championship Game once again.


Want more Cincinnati Bearcats football ?

WEBSITE

https://gobearcats.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://bearcatnews.com/forum/football

http://csnbbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=404

http://cincinnati.247sports.com/Board/Cincinnati-Bearcats-Football-Message-Board-Forum-39

NEWS

http://www.downthedrive.com/

https://www.cincinnati.com/sports/uc/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2132/cincinnati-bearcats

TWITTER

Hashtag – #CinCityPride

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/GoBearcatsFB